Nationwide +0.6%

[GreenDevil]

35 minutes ago, Patient London FTB said:

You also have to factor in how relentless HPI means it appears crazy to ever sell property unless you have to

Agreed. If I'd held onto all the property I've owned and rented, I'd be a very rich man (on paper of course)

Housing is getting like bitcoin. A bubble of all Bubbles lol

[Patient London FTB]

7 minutes ago, GreenDevil said:

Agreed. If I'd held onto all the property I've owned and rented, I'd be a very rich man (on paper of course)

Housing is getting like bitcoin. A bubble of all Bubbles lol

This could be an effect that pulls the national house price indices up for a while longer yet. 

As the boom-wave hits the areas where prices are below 2008 there are probably going to be a lot more willing sellers and therefore more transactions. 

Back in London prices are falling but it's going to take a long while to break that psychological resistance to selling that's developed from so many people getting mugged for holding to the naive concept that house price rises should be fairly smooth and limited over time. 

 

[John The Pessimist]

19 hours ago, btd1981 said:

They're not so insane here in deepest, darkest Shropshire. But they regrettably seem to be picking up on the M6 corridor/Staffs.

When living in the South East, could have bought a couple of years ago but I thought the increases would cease or reverse. If I do the same up here, and expect different results, is that not also an indication of insanity

Having recently moved to Bridgnorth I wouldn't agree with you......

[Venger]

18 hours ago, Patient London FTB said:

This could be an effect that pulls the national house price indices up for a while longer yet. 

As the boom-wave hits the areas where prices are below 2008 there are probably going to be a lot more willing sellers and therefore more transactions. 

Back in London prices are falling but it's going to take a long while to break that psychological resistance to selling that's developed from so many people getting mugged for holding to the naive concept that house price rises should be fairly smooth and limited over time. 

Cause and effect don't always work in straight lines.   The HPI+ noise doesn't bother me.

Tough.  Market doesn't really need them and their resistance much.  They are hostage to other sellers willing to sell for less, to bring wider prices down, and the risks of that occurring are higher at these price levels, with so many concerning variables in the mix.   And transactions in 2008 were on the low side, but prices fell.   Although transactions/inventory on market would need to pick up from these levels, we don't need to have for sale boards everywhere 

Some people have been shocked already.  BTLers putting up human shields with their 8 houses BTLs.   They are biting down on financial kerb in Section24, and HMRC is coming along.

Quote

dgul:  To get back to the original point - there is a big, long term picture playing here, and the sooner people are forced to understand that you can't rely on inflating asset prices (without any actual improved quality of life, or production of stuff) to support their retirement the better. And I'm afraid that you're part of that 'forcing people to understand'. I guess I'm a bit sorry, but it is more important that we can continue to live in a country that has a future.

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

28 minutes ago, Venger said:

Cause and effect don't always work in straight lines.   The HPI+ noise doesn't bother me.

Tough.  Market doesn't really need them and their resistance much.  They are hostage to other sellers willing to sell for less, to bring wider prices down, and the risks of that occurring are higher at these price levels, with so many concerning variables in the mix.   And transactions in 2008 were on the low side, but prices fell.   Although transactions/inventory on market would need to pick up from these levels, we don't need to have for sale boards everywhere 

Some people have been shocked already.  BTLers putting up human shields with their 8 houses BTLs.   They are biting down on financial kerb in Section24, and HMRC is coming along.

 

Venger, are you talking to me again yet ?

 

How do you see the next 6 months panning out ?

 

I split between...

1) All this noise coming out of the MSM/Government is the pre-cursor to a massive crash, they know things are bad and are trying to come out of it smelling of roses. Trump will have told May to raise IRs and what he intends to do generally.  BrExit/Trump will get the blame of course, it's their best chance to get a blame free crash, they would be daft not to grasp it with both hands.

2) The central bankers are really calling the shots and will stop at nothing, money will continue to become worthless and the British people will just accept it. They'll just keep printing money and lend it to anyone willing to accept the debt.  Poverty and slavery are all we can look forward to.

It's bleak either way.

 

 

[btd1981]

1 hour ago, John The Pessimist said:

Having recently moved to Bridgnorth I wouldn't agree with you......

Which aspect? I'm in the northern part of the county. Maybe an economic micro-climate, but prices are okay and things aren't shifting.

[thehowler]

Count... if Le Pen wins and/or the Germans tell Mario that he's got to stop printing money, six month future for Blighty could be very different. We might suddenly be regarded as pioneers in the long-awaited reform of the EU, pound shoots up, tech firm expansion, driverless car, age of leisure and universal income here we come.

HPI at 2-4% for the next ten years...

[Venger]

37 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Venger, are you talking to me again yet ?

How do you see the next 6 months panning out ?

I split between...

1) All this noise coming out of the MSM/Government is the pre-cursor to a massive crash, they know things are bad and are trying to come out of it smelling of roses. Trump will have told May to raise IRs and what he intends to do generally.  BrExit/Trump will get the blame of course, it's their best chance to get a blame free crash, they would be daft not to grasp it with both hands.

2) The central bankers are really calling the shots and will stop at nothing, money will continue to become worthless and the British people will just accept it. They'll just keep printing money and lend it to anyone willing to accept the debt.  Poverty and slavery are all we can look forward to.

It's bleak either way.

Yes Count, just not with the posts where you put so much emphasis on the banks to blame for everything - on other matters yes.

As in all the population are victims of banks, and also emphasis as the owners sat on the mad-gainz being victims, in event of a HPC - which you now doubt even happening!

With banks, and PTB, the only ones to blame for the situation the market is at now.

Market.  Involvement.   Any owner can seek to sell today, at these prices, if they wanted to.  If values fall, that's a market.  Deal with it as I have had to deal with prices surging and surging out of reach.

For some reason can not longer see your Tweets in this exchange, but they cooked my head at the time.  

I am not here to build a Temple to the HPIers Innocence.

 

 

Or where you imply the owner side, including those with mad-gainz, are not part of the market - or have been in any way conned, going to be any sort of victims in a HPC.  

See the Daily Mail for owners 'so innocent' cheering on their mad-gainz.  

It has been all been a system wide market thing, and if the mad-gainz side have to see lower values, that's the way it will be.  They won't be victims if value of their homes fall, and they are looking at less mad-gainz 'what it is worth'.   And BTLers took their own positions with their investments, to help turn would-be owners into renters.

On 9/21/2015 at 1:38 PM, BuyToLeech said:

The idea that older people don't see their homes as investments is a ridiculous self-serving platitude.

If that were true, the age demographics of landlords wouldn't be what they are, the daily mail wouldn't print the house price of every serial killer and murder victim, and house prices probably wouldn't be an issue.

On 6/29/2015 at 7:55 PM, BuyToLeech said:

A big-boy done it and ran away.

You have to be a pretty senior banker to have benefited as much from the Potempkin economy as a middle-class London home owner, but no-one wants to talk about that.

They can sell at these price levels, if they wanted to, with inventory on market so low. 

41 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I split between...

1) All this noise coming out of the MSM/Government is the pre-cursor to a massive crash, they know things are bad and are trying to come out of it smelling of roses. Trump will have told May to raise IRs and what he intends to do generally.  BrExit/Trump will get the blame of course, it's their best chance to get a blame free crash, they would be daft not to grasp it with both hands.

2) The central bankers are really calling the shots and will stop at nothing, money will continue to become worthless and the British people will just accept it. They'll just keep printing money and lend it to anyone willing to accept the debt.  Poverty and slavery are all we can look forward to.

It's bleak either way.

Next few years... banks are in stronger position.  Why have we now going Section24 coming in.  Why SDLT surcharge?  Why MMR + PRA?

Perhaps that impression (the way you see the market) has been part of the reasoning behind other people buying houses at such high prices.  The BOMADs.   Just as it was for the BTLers who danced into capture Generation Rent Forever, but now shocked by S24 and going on about 'financial oblivion'.

I disagree.  It doesn't make sense and won't happen.  That's just too much projecting on the authorities with little to back it up.  Carney has explained just how much of a better situation banks are in vs 2008, and even HPC is part of the stress tests.  

HPC on the mad-gainz victims too... it will only be an ego HPC for them.   If... if HPC ever begins, this time I will push back harder against those who keep claiming innocence for the owners.  Owners/BTLers are all in the market . Can't alwways be the renter-savers to carry everything.  My pal's new landlord has a clump of houses, worth near £2m and seemingly without debt.  Market.  Some HPC might encourage him to sell one before prices fall further.   And for FTBs to get an opportunity to become homeowners... more stable futures for their families than kick up more rent to someone who has been on extreme tilt of having it all.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

33 minutes ago, Venger said:

Yes Count, just not with the posts where you put so much emphasis on the banks to blame for everything - on other matters yes.

As in all the population are victims of banks, and also emphasis as the owners sat on the mad-gainz being victims, in event of a HPC - which you now doubt even happening!

With banks, and PTB, the only ones to blame for the situation the market is at now.

Market.  Involvement.   Any owner can seek to sell today, at these prices, if they wanted to.  If values fall, that's a market.  Deal with it as I have had to deal with prices surging and surging out of reach.

For some reason can not longer see your Tweets in this exchange, but they cooked my head at the time.  

I am not here to build a Temple to the HPIers Innocence.

 

 

Or where you imply the owner side, including those with mad-gainz, are not part of the market - or have been in any way conned, going to be any sort of victims in a HPC.  

See the Daily Mail for owners 'so innocent' cheering on their mad-gainz.  

It has been all been a system wide market thing, and if the mad-gainz side have to see lower values, that's the way it will be.  They won't be victims if value of their homes fall, and they are looking at less mad-gainz 'what it is worth'.   And BTLers took their own positions with their investments, to help turn would-be owners into renters.

They can sell at these price levels, if they wanted to, with inventory on market so low. 

Next few years... banks are in stronger position.  Why have we now going Section24 coming in.  Why SDLT surcharge?  Why MMR + PRA?

Perhaps that impression (the way you see the market) has been part of the reasoning behind other people buying houses at such high prices.  The BOMADs.   Just as it was for the BTLers who danced into capture Generation Rent Forever, but now shocked by S24 and going on about 'financial oblivion'.

I disagree.  It doesn't make sense and won't happen.  That's just too much projecting on the authorities with little to back it up.  Carney has explained just how much of a better situation banks are in vs 2008, and even HPC is part of the stress tests.  

HPC on the mad-gainz victims too... it will only be an ego HPC for them.   If... if HPC ever begins, this time I will push back harder against those who keep claiming innocence for the owners.  Owners/BTLers are all in the market . Can't alwways be the renter-savers to carry everything.  My pal's new landlord has a clump of houses, worth near £2m and seemingly without debt.  Market.  Some HPC might encourage him to sell one before prices fall further.   And for FTBs to get an opportunity to become homeowners... more stable futures for their families than kick up more rent to someone who has been on extreme tilt of having it all.

Cheer Venger.

That's the scenario we are all hoping for, as I said, I'm still 50/50 on it.

The message coming out that flat panel device on my wall is telling me that things are changing.

The message that London is falling is well documented now, so it's hard to believe this wont become more widespread.

BrExit effects, depending on how it's done could be wide spread.

Nothing points to more rises but rise they do.

Carney's magic 100Bn and lower IRs are seeing to that.

I never expected it to go on this long, general election in 2015 then more sustained falls, but it's proper #MegaBubble madness now (again).

I'll give it to October, if something hasn't given, then we're off for sure now.

 

This...is the real problem we face.

 

 

 

Edited March 2, 2017 by TheCountOfNowhere

[thehowler]

It's the new normal...maybe we'll get more QE when Mario stops - or maybe the US will flood the markets with new money on construction/defence - and then we can always have a debt jamboree global write-down at the end of it?

If the banks will lend it, people will take it.

And the picture's too mixed for a sudden crash (by October) IMHO, still a lot of money coming in as investment, still full employment (low paid as it is), and the pound dancing around like a frog in a box...