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Theresa May poised to announce end of free movement for new EU migrants next month

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1 minute ago, sPinwheel said:

I guess it also means new Brits wanting to move to the Continent will also find thier free movement ended at the same time?

I doubt it. It just means that they won't be able to apply for benefits. So no great change for 99% of them.

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3 minutes ago, CunningPlan said:

I doubt it. It just means that they won't be able to apply for benefits. So no great change for 99% of them.

I assume some of them at least use healthcare.

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Everything will be in the details:-

  • WHEN FOM is officially abandoned - 2 to 5 years down the line?
  • WHAT will the government do about immigrants currently in the UK? Give them permanent residency or automatically commute and reduce their status to the same as non-EU on initial settlement visas? If so, they will have no recourse to public funds (so the real leeches will leave the UK)

If the FOM end-date is years down the line, and current immigrants are being promised permanent residency, I can see immigration rising sharply until the cut-off date where immigrants will see the next few years as a chance to get a foothold in the UK before the door closes. 

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My guess, and its been purely looking at numberbs:

FOM will remain.

Right to all benefits will end.

Wage hurdle - 19k put in place.

Private health insurance + charged 5k for any kid to go to school.

The offical figures says there are 1.8M Brits in the EU and 2.8 EU in the UK. Hardly balanced esp. when you consider the Brits will self funding whilst the EUrs, in the main, will not.

Id reckon the actual figures are closer to 5m. In my not very thriving town you cannot move for bumping into an EEer around every corner.

Id reckon than 3m will go home as soon as benefits are stopped.

It wont affect my Portuguese + Spanish Nurse friends, or my working French mate, or my hot Polish mum friend who earns 40k.

It will affect the Roma Big Issuers, car washers.

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1 hour ago, canbuywontbuy said:

Everything will be in the details:-

  • WHEN FOM is officially abandoned - 2 to 5 years down the line?
  • WHAT will the government do about immigrants currently in the UK? Give them permanent residency or automatically commute and reduce their status to the same as non-EU on initial settlement visas? If so, they will have no recourse to public funds (so the real leeches will leave the UK)

If the FOM end-date is years down the line, and current immigrants are being promised permanent residency, I can see immigration rising sharply until the cut-off date where immigrants will see the next few years as a chance to get a foothold in the UK before the door closes. 

They'll stop benefits, pretty much dead.

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7 hours ago, sPinwheel said:

I guess it also means new Brits wanting to move to the Continent will also find thier free movement ended at the same time?

I would imagine it depends how rich they are..... anybody from anywhere can buy property here if they have enough dosh, doubt the rest of the EU would want to lose the money our pensioners spend, perhaps they in future will just have to be richer pensioners?;)

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Our problem is that the British position is easy to determine whilst that of the EU, is not. Often, as in this case, the media fail to point out that. We can do as we like the EU will need to satisfy all those nations and achieve that for every area of contention. 

In two years we will be leaving a vastly different EU, those negotiations will have forced them to confront so many issues that currently are hidden by the EU. Whether it can survive that is any bodies guess.

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Yet another court case for the government to lose if they actually introduce legislation.

If they don't introduce legislation this is just empty words.

Edited by Dorkins

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The EU is no way perfect and I would think most countries that make up the EU would agree with that.....Shame the changes that needed to happen could not have been negotiated by all members together, with a few treaty tweeks, now there is a greater chance the whole thing could collapse, careful what is wished for..... throwing the big fat baby out with the bath water...;)

 

 

It won't be cheap.....

Edited by winkie

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Law of unintended consequences.  Just read this to the end.

Firstly, l am engaged to an Italian girl.   (second time around and all that.)  I went to school with her. she came over to the UK in 1963 with her parents.  She was married to an English guy, has three twenty something children, all private schooled, and very "British."  She works for a huge Insurance company deep seated in London.  

One of my best mates is married to a Portuguese girl, (here twenty years,)have two young children- she is the manager of a building society.

There must be hundreds of thousands of cases like this, and by the large, these people are absolutely shitting themselves they will be "sent home."   Everybody I know says this will not happen, it's impossible to think it.

And then today on the BBC you read this;  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39099574   Woman deported despite 27 year marriage!

So-

IF the government decide to implement this across the board, where does it stop, and more interestingly, where does the "****** you I'm taking my family back to India, Pakistan, Caribbean, South Africa, Italy, Portugal,  Germany, France,   when exactly does people power take over, and become the unintentional consequence.   When everyone who is basically normalised turns around and says "****** you U.K."  ?

Because it could happen en masse. And if it does, there are going to be house price & wage level armageddons and all sorts of shit going down.

The one case I just linked to could embed itself in people's minds, and add to their growing fears, and tip the balance for them.  And being Auntie Beeb, they will start getting Nicky Campbell and others to flare this up and create even more tension uncertainty and unease.  Could have the airwaves awash with this in myriad call ins with people in similar situations if they choose to drive it.

Could be a real ****** up.   

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9 hours ago, CunningPlan said:

In which case they need to take out insurance. So be it.

Or just pay for it, if and when required.

I did the sums a few years ago and for people my age (60s), ten years of private health insurance premiums would pay for open heart surgery in a BUPA hospital.

Having said that, our multi trip European health insurance costs about £150 for both of us.

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2 hours ago, winkie said:

I would imagine it depends how rich they are..... anybody from anywhere can buy property here if they have enough dosh, doubt the rest of the EU would want to lose the money our pensioners spend, perhaps they in future will just have to be richer pensioners?;)

Most retired  UK expats are high net worth individuals 500k + at the very least at the outset anyway. High drawings go with the territory, whatever  the myth is about it being cheaper to live abroad, high travel costs and high spenders are attracted to the expat lifestyle. Those that run out of money, quite a lot, come back with their tail between their legs and are not a burden on the Europen host, ever.

Meanwhile we take in immigrants from South and Eastern Europe with zero Equity who will not be going home if no work is found. My main concern is that after five years residency you get full citizenship and access to the retirement Ponzi, it's overly generous to the indigenous population let alone giving membership to the entire world. Opening up the scheme to the whole world is bankrupt economics*. Full housing benefit and minimum income guarantee for life.

* If that is not case pray tell how migrants survive here in retirement, of course they get absorbed into the welfare system 100%.

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30 minutes ago, Shea VanHaven said:

Law of unintended consequences.  Just read this to the end.

And then today on the BBC you read this;  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39099574   Woman deported despite 27 year marriage!

Could be a real ****** up.   

Tricky one,

Broke the ILR rules by a country mile by the looks of things but immigration system is a mess, this is what happens when a system is allowed to get completely out of control, no time nor flexibility to assert some common sense.  Can't see any merit in excluding, she travelled back to Singapore with husband/family. Not as if estranged or anything like that. 

http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/52-year-old-singaporean-deported-despite-decades-long-fight-to-stay-with-british-husband

Her immigration battle, which has made headlines in Britain, has gone on for more than two decades. She was granted an Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) - which is typically given to foreign spouses of British citizens - when she married Mr John Clennell in 1990, after they met in a London pub. The ILR allows a person to stay in Britain without time restrictions.

In 1992, she moved back to Singapore with her husband. She stayed here as her mother was sick. When her mother died in 1999, she found that her ILR had lapsed as a clause in it says she cannot live outside Britain for more than two years. Her husband and their sons returned to Britain in 1998.

 

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49 minutes ago, Shea VanHaven said:

Law of unintended consequences.  Just read this to the end.

Firstly, l am engaged to an Italian girl.   (second time around and all that.)  I went to school with her. she came over to the UK in 1963 with her parents.  She was married to an English guy, has three twenty something children, all private schooled, and very "British."  She works for a huge Insurance company deep seated in London.  

One of my best mates is married to a Portuguese girl, (here twenty years,)have two young children- she is the manager of a building society.

There must be hundreds of thousands of cases like this, and by the large, these people are absolutely shitting themselves they will be "sent home."   Everybody I know says this will not happen, it's impossible to think it.

And then today on the BBC you read this;  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39099574   Woman deported despite 27 year marriage!

So-

IF the government decide to implement this across the board, where does it stop, and more interestingly, where does the "****** you I'm taking my family back to India, Pakistan, Caribbean, South Africa, Italy, Portugal,  Germany, France,   when exactly does people power take over, and become the unintentional consequence.   When everyone who is basically normalised turns around and says "****** you U.K."  ?

Because it could happen en masse. And if it does, there are going to be house price & wage level armageddons and all sorts of shit going down.

The one case I just linked to could embed itself in people's minds, and add to their growing fears, and tip the balance for them.  And being Auntie Beeb, they will start getting Nicky Campbell and others to flare this up and create even more tension uncertainty and unease.  Could have the airwaves awash with this in myriad call ins with people in similar situations if they choose to drive it.

Could be a real ****** up.   

You are being hysterical.

First, the Italian and Portuguese ave nothing to worry about if they are working. As a rule its wise to become a national if you are planning to stay in a country.

The Singapore/27 years is missing a lot of detail. She might have been married for 27 years but where did they live for those 27 years?

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8 minutes ago, onlyme2 said:

Tricky one,

Broke the ILR rules by a country mile by the looks of things but immigration system is a mess, this is what happens when a system is allowed to get completely out of control, no time nor flexibility to assert some common sense.  Can't see any merit in excluding, she travelled back to Singapore with husband/family. Not as if estranged or anything like that. 

http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/52-year-old-singaporean-deported-despite-decades-long-fight-to-stay-with-british-husband

Her immigration battle, which has made headlines in Britain, has gone on for more than two decades. She was granted an Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) - which is typically given to foreign spouses of British citizens - when she married Mr John Clennell in 1990, after they met in a London pub. The ILR allows a person to stay in Britain without time restrictions.

In 1992, she moved back to Singapore with her husband. She stayed here as her mother was sick. When her mother died in 1999, she found that her ILR had lapsed as a clause in it says she cannot live outside Britain for more than two years. Her husband and their sons returned to Britain in 1998.

 

Ah the detail.

Surely its a case of why is Singapore not letting her husband in.

She lived in the UK for 2 years - 90-92. Then they lived in SIngapore for 18 years.

 

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9 minutes ago, spyguy said:

You are being hysterical.

First, the Italian and Portuguese ave nothing to worry about if they are working. As a rule its wise to become a national if you are planning to stay in a country.

The Singapore/27 years is missing a lot of detail. She might have been married for 27 years but where did they live for those 27 years?

Not me being hysterical, it's the people who this may affect. I just suffer the bloody fallout :(  My partner has now applied for right to reside.  She has been advised by a solicitor not to apply or citizenship at the moment.  But this wasn't the point I was trying to make.   Namely that the individuals this personally affects are quite likely to decide for themselves it's time to go.

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