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Si1

Roger Bootle throws in the towel

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"Incidentally, if you believe that we are really going to build all the extra properties that the Government apparently desires, house prices will surely be lower than they would otherwise have been. Especially if increased supply coincides with a move to higher interest rates, they will even be lower in absolute terms.  I think that would be an extremely good thing. But again, would the Government have the stomach for it? "

 

Quite a depressing read

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/12/does-government-have-guts-enough-solve-housing-crisis/

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His conclusion seems to be that the govt will not have the courage to take on boomer interests on the property market, and following generations will pay a fortune for shelter as a result.

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3 minutes ago, Frizzers said:

can you paste it below? Can't login.

Think that would be contravening forum rules sadly.

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3 hours ago, Si1 said:

His conclusion seems to be that the govt will not have the courage to take on boomer interests on the property market, and following generations will pay a fortune for shelter as a result.

My plan is to only consider buying once most of the boomers are getting whipped by their own beige cruise trousers in hell while the song it's a wonderful life plays. The nice ones will be given Salsa lessons, Connect 4 and and don't have to get whipped with their own beige cruise trousers unless they into that sort of thing.

In other words dead.

Edited by Arpeggio

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Will the government make themselves, their colleagues, their friends, their families poorer in order to benefit society as a whole?

 

That's why we will see a collapse. The bankers are playing the MPs for all we ate worth.

 

The housing bubble won't end well. 2007 was bad enough, 20XX will be a disaster

 

 

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15 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Will the government make themselves, their colleagues, their friends, their families poorer in order to benefit society as a whole?

 

That's why we will see a collapse. The bankers are playing the MPs for all we ate worth.

 

The housing bubble won't end well. 2007 was bad enough, 20XX will be a disaster

 

 

I agree with you TCON. Everything points to economic and social disaster. I'm not too bothered for myself as I'm nearly 60 and reaching the end. But i feel for many younger people as their life quality and opportunities in life decline.

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1 hour ago, Si1 said:

His conclusion seems to be that the govt will not have the courage to take on boomer interests on the property market, and following generations will pay a fortune for shelter as a result.

That can't be right. It's all the fault of the immigrants innit? 

And Brexit = sunny uplands. 

Get with the programme! 

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41 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Will the government make themselves, their colleagues, their friends, their families poorer in order to benefit society as a whole?

 

 

 

 

Theresa and Phil? I think they'll do some good things, but they won't do that.

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50 minutes ago, Patient London FTB said:

You can read the comments under the piece without a Telegraph login. Some of them are perceptive. A few see the inevitability of a crash. 

The crash is unstoppable...that's the bit people don't get...the 2007 collapse has never gone away, people now calling it a bubble now can't be long till people see the mania and well, all hell breaks loose.

 

I hope to have helped open a few eyes but as the man above says...its too late for me/some of us. A collapse will come and will he painful. 

Osborne and Cameron missed the only chance to bring the bankers and bubble back to reality.

 

But the did the opposite. They must a known what they were doing...hence why I saw them + Carney should be arrested.

 

This is not an economy...this ias a crime

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13 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

The crash is unstoppable...that's the bit people don't get...the 2007 collapse has never gone away, people now calling it a bubble now can't be long till people see the mania and well, all hell breaks loose.

 

I hope to have helped open a few eyes but as the man above says...its too late for me/some of us. A collapse will come and will he painful. 

Osborne and Cameron missed the only chance to bring the bankers and bubble back to reality.

 

But the did the opposite. They must a known what they were doing...hence why I saw them + Carney should be arrested.

 

This is not an economy...this ias a crime

That was true ten years ago.  It's a catastrophe waiting to happen now..

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16 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

The crash is unstoppable...that's the bit people don't get...the 2007 collapse has never gone away, people now calling it a bubble now can't be long till people see the mania and well, all hell breaks loose.

 

I hope to have helped open a few eyes but as the man above says...its too late for me/some of us. A collapse will come and will he painful. 

Osborne and Cameron missed the only chance to bring the bankers and bubble back to reality.

 

But the did the opposite. They must a known what they were doing...hence why I saw them + Carney should be arrested.

 

This is not an economy...this ias a crime

It's too late for me.

 

It'll take 20 years too.

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9 minutes ago, Si1 said:

It's too late for me.

 

It'll take 20 years too.

I'm not sure I agree. I lived through the late 80s crash and once momentum kicked it, it fell pretty fast.  

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21 apartments in this new build in Twickenham.

All but 1 apartment sold.  6 bought by HTB buyers.  60% overall bought by FTBs. 

One of the 2-beds.   Modest £579,950.

And look at the value in Twickenham for a family home of Victorian build, vs prices in Barnes, Kew or Richmond.

You're in there for between just £900,000 - £1.1m.

What's the problem?  No one dragging anyone in to buy, and no one stopping anyone selling into high value, but very low inventory (houses up for sale) market.

Housing financialisation problem, and less of a too few houses problem, imo.

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8 minutes ago, One-percent said:

I'm not sure I agree. I lived through the late 80s crash and once momentum kicked it, it fell pretty fast.  

But we had a compliant govt then "if it isn't hurting it isn't working".

 

We have the opposite now.

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2 minutes ago, Si1 said:

But we had a compliant govt then "if it isn't hurting it isn't working".

 

We have the opposite now.

True, but I'm not sure that they will be able to stop it once it starts. A bit like king Canute holding back the tide.  Remember Lawson and black Wednesday?

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13 minutes ago, One-percent said:

True, but I'm not sure that they will be able to stop it once it starts. A bit like king Canute holding back the tide.  Remember Lawson and black Wednesday?

Indeed

 

We'll see

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2 minutes ago, One-percent said:

It maybe just wishful thinking but I've got the popcorn and g&t at the ready. 

Kindest regards all the same mate.

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28 minutes ago, One-percent said:

True, but I'm not sure that they will be able to stop it once it starts. A bit like king Canute holding back the tide.  Remember Lawson and black Wednesday?

Lawson like Lamont blew chicken feed compared to the looming losses. When this blows the past panics post war will look like a picnic. RBS is fecked and not fixed before this goes tits us.

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5 hours ago, Si1 said:

"Incidentally, if you believe that we are really going to build all the extra properties that the Government apparently desires, house prices will surely be lower than they would otherwise have been.

I have always found it fascinating how the govt and others talk about "increased supply" to "solve" the housing crisis, without ever talking about prices, and the obvious fact that they need to come down. The point above is a good one, and indeed the only way the housing crisis stops being a crisis is if and when prices fall substantially. And yet no one in the government is ever allowed to make that connection, even though what they are (ostensibly) trying to do is increase supply so that prices come down. There is no other reason to increase supply (in this context), since an increased supply at current prices helps no one apart from the developers. Indeed, there is no real "shortage of supply" currently, in the sense that I could walk into just about any estate agents in the land and the shelves would not be bare - I could buy a house if I wanted to (and had a spare mil, natch). Good to see Bootle mention it, at least.

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2 minutes ago, interestrateripoff said:

Lawson like Lamont blew chicken feed compared to the looming losses. When this blows the past panics post war will look like a picnic. RBS is fecked and not fixed before this goes tits us.

Agree, which is why I think when it goes, it will really go. There will be no stopping it. The fundamentals just don't add up and, as we all on here know, the disconnect between housing and wages is completely out of kilter. 

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We're a lot closer to the demographic tipping point than many seem to realise. At the 2025 general election the median UK adult will have been born in the late 1970s.

There are two forces working against the older homeowner grip on political power, one is that they are dying off and the other is that each one that is dying off is being replaced by a priced out youngster. It's like a football match in which every 5 minutes one of the players from team A is taken off and team B brings an extra player on. It's not necessary for team A to get down to zero players, they will start losing long before then.

Plus of course Mr Market might show up early and take the decision out of the hands of the politicians.

Edited by Dorkins

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6 minutes ago, interestrateripoff said:

Lawson like Lamont blew chicken feed compared to the looming losses. When this blows the past panics post war will look like a picnic. RBS is fecked and not fixed before this goes tits us.

If this does happen it will be concurrent with the EU breaking up in an uncontrolled manner. And general losses our country suffers will be small compared to those on the continent.

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