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penbat1

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House prices fell. The US leads the crash this time around unlike the Great Crash where the UK had a head start. See my post on this topic.

then why were housebuilders the main drivers behind the ftse 250 rise? dont get me wrong im all for stocks and shares and thats where most of my money is.

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FTSE 100 closed at 5704.40 up 70.60 which is 1.25%

FTSE 250 closed at 9058.20 up 129.20 which is 1.45%

The Dow is hardly up at all.

The FTSE 250 is up about 30% in the last seven months.

Not a bad return if you backed a FTSE 250 tracker back in May. No management costs required either, I wonder how this compares to certain other posters portfolios. There are people on this board who believe the 6-7% from their property is an excellent return, the goons. I think the FTSE 250 may have some legs in it yet, but I wouldn't borrow £3 million quid to find out, not after most the gain have been made.

So for all the property bulls out there, SEE HOW IT WORKS? BUY LOW, SELL HIGH?

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then why were housebuilders the main drivers behind the ftse 250 rise? dont get me wrong im all for stocks and shares and thats where most of my money is.

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060125/214/g247y.html

Don't see too many builders driving the FTSE--looks like miners and energy lead the way. My post was on the US market where the HPC has been underway since about October for most regions.

The FTSE 250 is up about 30% in the last seven months.

Not a bad return if you backed a FTSE 250 tracker back in May. No management costs required either, I wonder how this compares to certain other posters portfolios. There are people on this board who believe the 6-7% from their property is an excellent return, the goons. I think the FTSE 250 may have some legs in it yet, but I wouldn't borrow £3 million quid to find out, not after most the gain have been made.

So for all the property bulls out there, SEE HOW IT WORKS? BUY LOW, SELL HIGH?

My bet for 2006 is summed up in one word:

C O A L

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FTSE 100 closed at 5704.40 up 70.60 which is 1.25%

FTSE 250 closed at 9058.20 up 129.20 which is 1.45%

The Dow is hardly up at all.

The FTSE is way overvalued compared to the DOW (fair value now 5,400). I've got a whole load of cash waiting to be invested, but not at these levels. 70 points is madness!

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The FTSE 250 is up about 30% in the last seven months.

Not a bad return if you backed a FTSE 250 tracker back in May. No management costs required either, I wonder how this compares to certain other posters portfolios. There are people on this board who believe the 6-7% from their property is an excellent return, the goons. I think the FTSE 250 may have some legs in it yet, but I wouldn't borrow £3 million quid to find out, not after most the gain have been made.

So for all the property bulls out there, SEE HOW IT WORKS? BUY LOW, SELL HIGH?

Music to my ears ! I have stuck all my pension funds into Schroder 250 Mid Cap fund which invests on companies just entering the FTSE250 and on the way up and a lower than average P/E rating. This is a very long term investment - hopefully 18 years. I might well have stuck it in a FTSE250 tracker if i had the opportunity but not with my pension provider.

Edited by penbat1

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The FTSE is way overvalued compared to the DOW (fair value now 5,400). I've got a whole load of cash waiting to be invested, but not at these levels. 70 points is madness!

IN the US the VIs are admitting HPI is over unlike the UK where prices are said to keep going onward an upward albeit at a slower pace for the next three years before exploding upward again (they never drop in the UK you see). The US are more regulated and porkies send people to nasty places with bars and searchlights. The DOW was down because the reality of a HPC is widely known and consumers will stop spending as fear spreads like wildfire.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060125/economy.html?.v=8

Edited by Realistbear

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060125/214/g247y.html

Don't see too many builders driving the FTSE--looks like miners and energy lead the way. My post was on the US market where the HPC has been underway since about October for most regions.

My bet for 2006 is summed up in one word:

C O A L

may be those new houses built on the top of old slag heaps are worth the money after all.

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The FTSE 250 is up about 30% in the last seven months.

Not a bad return if you backed a FTSE 250 tracker back in May. No management costs required either, I wonder how this compares to certain other posters portfolios. There are people on this board who believe the 6-7% from their property is an excellent return, the goons. I think the FTSE 250 may have some legs in it yet, but I wouldn't borrow £3 million quid to find out, not after most the gain have been made.

So for all the property bulls out there, SEE HOW IT WORKS? BUY LOW, SELL HIGH?

The 7% gain on my multi-million £ portfolio is certainly a hop, skip & a jump ahead of the STR's paltry few % after tax on their 30-80k in the bank. Even if they were keen enough to have been fully invested in shares (I doubt they would have the guts), they are still way down in the little league.

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The 7% gain on my multi-million £ portfolio is certainly a hop, skip & a jump ahead of the STR's paltry few % after tax on their 30-80k in the bank. Even if they were keen enough to have been fully invested in shares (I doubt they would have the guts), they are still way down in the little league.

Tech stocks and the FTSE100 are still way down from the year 2000. I think a lot of people would have wished they only saved in savings accounts not the stock market in that year.

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The 7% gain on my multi-million £ portfolio is certainly a hop, skip & a jump ahead of the STR's paltry few % after tax on their 30-80k in the bank. Even if they were keen enough to have been fully invested in shares (I doubt they would have the guts), they are still way down in the little league.

Looked at globally, the house market is only just going into correction phase and capital is looking elsewhere for a return. After all, even the most optimistic VI is predicting a flat to 3% market in 2006 which is unlikely to attract any fresh investment to push the BTL market higher. It seems that the FTSE, DOW, Nikkie etc is the place where the speculators will go next. You have to also remember that BTL'ers portfolios are not in the same league as the multi-trillion pound stock markets.

BTW, 7% gain on a BTL portfolio is rare for 2005 where most lower end properties lost 2-7% with a UK average loss of 1.25% if Hometrack is right for all properties including non-rental units.

Edited by Realistbear

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Tech stocks and the FTSE100 are still way down from the year 2000. I think a lot of people would have wished they only saved in savings accounts not the stock market in that year.

NOT Miners. Antofagasta PLC earnt me more today than my old BTL did in 3 months!

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The FTSE is way overvalued compared to the DOW (fair value now 5,400). I've got a whole load of cash waiting to be invested, but not at these levels. 70 points is madness!

Not true - if you compare FTSE to Dow/S&P charts for 5 years, you can see that the FTSE is still playing catch up. And fundamentals on FTSE are much better too. FTSE is cheaper - p/e around 13 compared to about 17 for S&P. So it's onwards and upwards!

Incidentally, US builders have been taking a bit of a pummelling in the last few weeks:

NEW YORK (AFX) -- U.S. stocks rose Wednesday as a sharp drop in crude-oil prices and some solid earnings reports helped the market overcome much weaker-than-expected data on the housing market.

The market briefly pared gains after the National Association of Realtors reported a much sharper-than-expected drop in sales of existing homes for December.

'The market is concerned with the housing numbers. There seems to be a trend setting in,' said Jay Suskind, director of trading at Ryan, Beck & Co., referring to a decline in existing home sales for a third month in a row. 'Housing and the consumer have been the engines of the economy and if that's slowing or fading quickly, there are going to be ramifications for the market.'

But the market can take cheer from positive signals elsewhere. 'Declining oil is definitely important for the market,' said Lincoln Anderson, chief investment officer at LPL Financial Services, 'and the earnings pace has been pretty good.'

Anderson said the market has been focusing too much on earnings misses from high-profile companies when quarterly results, overall, are in-line or better than expected.

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The 7% gain on my multi-million £ portfolio is certainly a hop, skip & a jump ahead of the STR's paltry few % after tax on their 30-80k in the bank. Even if they were keen enough to have been fully invested in shares (I doubt they would have the guts), they are still way down in the little league.

Well then if you have such big balls and you are so financially astute why did you not sell up and sink it all into a FTSE 250 tracker back in May?

Wouldn't you now be worth £1million quid more than you are now?

Did you make about £80 - 90K, in that period?

Who exactly is in the little leagues?

If you are the fiscal hero you're so quick to claim to be, why are you not capable of better returns?

Maybe your bizarrely ‘eggs in one basket’ portfolio leaves you unable to take advantage of such an opportunity.

After all you cannot get at any of your so called wealth because its all tied up in depreciating assets.

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Well then if you have such big balls and you are so financially astute why did you not sell up and sink it all into a FTSE 250 tracker back in May?

Wouldn't you now be worth £1million quid more than you are now?

Did you make about £80 - 90K, in that period?

Who exactly is in the little leagues?

If you are the fiscal hero you're so quick to claim to be, why are you not capable of better returns?

Maybe your bizarrely ‘eggs in one basket’ portfolio leaves you unable to take advantage of such an opportunity.

After all you cannot get at any of your so called wealth because its all tied up in depreciating assets.

You just don't get the point do you? Piddly little stock market plays won't make you wealthy. They'll give you sleepless nights while the real players walk off with your money. Had I even started in shares rather than property, I'd probably be where you are now, rather than where I am now.

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The 7% gain on my multi-million £ portfolio is certainly a hop, skip & a jump ahead of the STR's paltry few % after tax on their 30-80k in the bank. Even if they were keen enough to have been fully invested in shares (I doubt they would have the guts), they are still way down in the little league.

Yup, if only people could gear shares or buy options, sheesh, if only.

Had I even started in shares rather than property, I'd probably be where you are now, rather than where I am now.

£2m in debt?

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Hurray! I put all the money I had for a deposit into shares 3 years ago (fund and self-cert) and sold some US shares last month to buy more UK ones. Good news. It wasn't a fortune by the way - that's why I had to take a bigger risk than a savings account.

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How long would a heavily geared stock market investor lasted during this last week?

At least with the stock market you know when you've been caught out, you can't pretend everything is rosy, property is like a ticking time bomb, nobody dare look lest they glimpse the shriveled remnants.

7%-10% may have already been wiped off your 'multimillion pound portfolio', no doubt more in London, it's just that you don't know it nor do you want to know it. By the time you come to sell; it will be all too obvious and all too late.

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The problem with gearing on shares is that if you use CFD's or something similar then if the market moves against you in the short term (a temporary blip) you get a margin call and have to pay. If you have the same effect with a house you can wait for the market to recover as long as you are able to make the mortgage payments as I don't think banks will call in a loan unless it is not being serviced.

Edited by Given Up

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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