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Oliver Sutton

Public Sector Net Borrowing

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Deficit seems to be coming down nicely.

But what if now represents the trough?

Well due a recession. House prices simply stopping increasing would have a massive effect on the tax takes with the wealth effect and all that.

It's still at 4% even without counting the money printing.

 

ukborrowing.jpg

http://www.economiccalendar.com/2017/02/21/uk-10-month-government-borrowing-requirement-declines-21-6/

 

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Still a ludicrously high figure. Even at £40 billion. And this is with a failing NHS, failing school provision/standards, failing care in old age etc etc.

What's the total national debt again?

Edited by Errol

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2 minutes ago, Errol said:

Still a ludicrously high figure. Even at £40 billion. And this is with a failing NHS, failing school provision/standards, failing care in old age etc etc.

What's the total national debt again?

1.8/1.9 TRILLION !!!!!

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10 minutes ago, Errol said:

Still a ludicrously high figure. Even at £40 billion. And this is with a failing NHS, failing school provision/standards, failing care in old age etc etc.

Yup.

All that debt from PFI pushed into the future as well.

Plus the student loans the taxpayer has guaranteed. I wonder how many tens of billions that represents.

Forgot to add all those schemes to prop up the housing market.

Edited by Oliver Sutton

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The Term Funding Scheme is expected to add an additional £85bn net to the PSND next fiscal year (2017-18).

Quote

Public sector net debt.

While refinancing debt does not increase the overall total amount owed to external investors, the new funding required to pay for public spending and increased government lending will result in an increase in public sector net debt over the next five years.

The effect of this increase is summarised in Table 9.6, which highlights how public sector net debt excluding banks is expected to reach almost £2 trillion by March 2022.

Lower fiscal deficits are expected to result in a slower rate of growth in public sector debt over the next five years than has been seen over the past decade. In comparison with the overall size of the economy, it is expected to peak at 90.2% of GDP at 31 March 2018 and to fall thereafter.

The Term Funding Scheme has the effect of increa sing public sector net debt as it is used to fund new loans, which is then reversed as those loans are repaid four years later. As a consequence, the forecast peak in public sect or net debt excluding banks as a share of GDP is exaggerated as is the subsequent fall.

http://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2017/gb2017ch9.pdf

 

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BBC raving on about the best January surplus in almost two decades - the usual talk of having a bit more money to spend gets a mention. Any good journalist would look into why the January surplus has been so good - well it is because of the change in dividend taxation. Lots of company directors have maximised dividends by pushing payments into the previous tax year and by drawing upon tangible assets. As a result next January's surplus will be much lower. At least article 50 will be triggered by then so they can blame it on that!

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22 minutes ago, OurDayWillCome said:

the usual talk of having a bit more money to spend 

Which is obvious nonsense as we are trillions in debt.

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4 hours ago, OurDayWillCome said:

BBC raving on about the best January surplus in almost two decades - the usual talk of having a bit more money to spend gets a mention. Any good journalist would look into why the January surplus has been so good - well it is because of the change in dividend taxation. Lots of company directors have maximised dividends by pushing payments into the previous tax year and by drawing upon tangible assets. As a result next January's surplus will be much lower. At least article 50 will be triggered by then so they can blame it on that!

Yep. Just paid a £10k tax bill I didn't need to incur by taking a larger dividend thanks to being screwed by Osborne for this year.

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BBC Doublethink at its best, its only now I realise what a brilliant thinker Orwell was, in the 1980s I thought he was a nut, it just wasn't as obvious back then, or was I too you to know better?

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16 minutes ago, disenfranchised said:

Yep. Just paid a £10k tax bill I didn't need to incur by taking a larger dividend thanks to being screwed by Osborne for this year.

I also held back on investing in new equipment so that I could take as big a dividend as possible :-)

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Our equipment upgrade is needed but not straight away so I decided to boost the dividend. I have a feeling the governments tax take next January will be dire.

Edited by OurDayWillCome

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1 hour ago, ChewingGrass said:

BBC Doublethink at its best, its only now I realise what a brilliant thinker Orwell was, in the 1980s I thought he was a nut, it just wasn't as obvious back then, or was I too you to know better?

You just didnt spot it. Maybe more subtle but its always been there.

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1 hour ago, OurDayWillCome said:

Our equipment upgrade is needed but not straight away so I decided to boost the dividend. I have a feeling the governments tax take next January will be dire.

Working out what to do for next january at the mo, don't want to set up a feedback loop of having to pay myself ever increasing amounts every year just to pay the previous years tax bill!

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It's still higher than before the start of the economic calamity and public sector debt continues to increase - but if net public sector borrowing is getting near the level it was before the start of the economic calamity and is such amazing progress then interest rates should be back up to those levels as well - but they aren't because they wrecked the economy and don't want to stop lining their own pockets.

Yes indeed "excluding public sector banks".  If it wasn't so serious their fakery would be a right hoot.

Edited by billybong

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