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Sancho Panza

UK wages going up soon

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Reported in the Guardian as UK corporations struggling for cheap labour.

Guardian 13/2/17

'UK employers are increasingly struggling to fill jobs in shops, factories and hospitals according to a new report that suggests the shortfall may be down to fewer EU migrants seeking work in the UK in the wake of the Brexit vote.

Company bosses are reporting labour and skills shortages throughout the food supply chain as well as in sectors such as manufacturing, healthcare and hospitality, according to the latest Labour Market Outlook from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) and The Adecco Group, which polls more than 1,000 employers.

One in four also had evidence that the EU nationals they employed were considering either leaving their organisation or the UK in 2017.

Another new survey, the London Employment Monitor, also highlights a 29% drop in professionals job hunting in the City last month, as high fliers look for jobs in other financial centres.

“Many of our non-British clients are choosing to return home, or seeking opportunities elsewhere in Europe”, said Hakan Enver,operations director, at Morgan McKinley Financial Services. “People wanting to get ahead of the threat of having their right to work revoked is understandable, but is a huge loss for the City”.'

 

Wrong sort of inflation obviously.

It could even lead to falling rents which would have the Guardian no doubt bemoaning tough times for the banks and BTLers.

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Interest rates going up as well.  The ground being prepared - Carney recently said that there was a slack in the economy so this news tends to counteract that.

Carney said the slack was a surprise discovery which suggests what many people have suspected for a long time that he's not as vigilant as he claims he to be.  Of course as usual it contradicts what he was saying about a year ago.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-02/carney-keeps-his-cool-on-inflation-with-surprise-slack-discovery

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-13/carney-s-new-found-slack-fails-to-damp-expectations-of-boe-hike

Edited by billybong

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10 minutes ago, billybong said:

Interest rates going up as well.  The ground being prepared - Carney recently said that there was a slack in the economy so this news tends to counteract that.

Carney said the slack was a surprise discovery which suggests what many people have suspected for a long time that he's not as vigilant as he claims he to be.  Of course as usual it contradicts what he was saying about a year ago.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-02/carney-keeps-his-cool-on-inflation-with-surprise-slack-discovery

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-13/carney-s-new-found-slack-fails-to-damp-expectations-of-boe-hike

Carney Said....

 

Man, you're funny.

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"seeking work in the UK in the wake of the Brexit vote."

More of a case that why work for £ when after all your work the £ may be work xx% less.

This may snap back with a vengeance once/if the Euro slides again

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14 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Carney Said....

 

Man, you're funny.

It's just that there's so much material out there - coming out of the "corridors of power".

Indeed "what did Carney say" could easily fill a room with laughter for days on end.  He's not the only one of course - Osborne had a certain knack for it was well - and quite a few others "running" things.

It's just amazing that he's still allowed to make official announcements.

Edited by billybong

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1 hour ago, billybong said:

Interest rates going up as well.  The ground being prepared - Carney recently said that there was a slack in the economy so this news tends to counteract that.

Carney said the slack was a surprise discovery which suggests what many people have suspected for a long time that he's not as vigilant as he claims he to be.  Of course as usual it contradicts what he was saying about a year ago.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-02/carney-keeps-his-cool-on-inflation-with-surprise-slack-discovery

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-13/carney-s-new-found-slack-fails-to-damp-expectations-of-boe-hike

Because usually at this point in the cycle we're well past NAIRU, wage inflation is strong and central bank is mid-way through its hiking cycle.

The GFC was an outlier in this respect. Some of it is due to post-retirement labour coming back into the workforce. But at some point companies have to compete more if they want the scarce labour which remains.

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1 hour ago, billybong said:

Interest rates going up as well.  The ground being prepared - Carney recently said that there was a slack in the economy so this news tends to counteract that.

Carney said the slack was a surprise discovery which suggests what many people have suspected for a long time that he's not as vigilant  awake as he claims he to be.  Of course as usual it contradicts what he was saying about a year ago.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-02/carney-keeps-his-cool-on-inflation-with-surprise-slack-discovery

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-13/carney-s-new-found-slack-fails-to-damp-expectations-of-boe-hike

Corrected for you.

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It's been discussed on other threads that the key reason overseas workers are going home is not the threat of brexit per se, but the devaluation of the pound which means the buying power of UK wages is significantly decreased back home.

tptb though are not going to blame fiscal and monetary policy (and as other have said, the lack of vigilance from Carney). Oh no, it's all you thick plebeian xenophobic wrasists that have done this through voting the wrong way

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54 minutes ago, One-percent said:

It's been discussed on other threads that the key reason overseas workers are going home is not the threat of brexit per se, but the devaluation of the pound which means the buying power of UK wages is significantly decreased back home.

tptb though are not going to blame fiscal and monetary policy (and as other have said, the lack of vigilance from Carney). Oh no, it's all you thick plebeian xenophobic wrasists that have done this through voting the wrong way

Think of the big cycle that is going on in their originating country - in particular the cost of housing.

Initially very high wages offshore. The initial rush causes lack of local demand for housing/rentals, dropping or putting subduing the price of those. Then after a few years the money begins to seep back into their home country. The balance between the benefit of carrying on earning an larger wage has to be compared to the now rising costs of housing/rental back home. Then there is a trigger - big sterling fall, money gets repatriated, local excess supply of housing drops significantly and it becomes a race back home to set yourself up for life before prices shoot up the opportunity is gone.

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But I'm not seeing a lot of inflation on goods, despite various posters on here a few months back muttering about suppliers threatening January hikes.

Perception is always skewed but I get the impression:

 - a lot of companies are flat-lining and not really able to offer higher wages

 - a lot of people will not buy/buy less if prices rise

Sonos Play:1 any takers?

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26 minutes ago, onlyme2 said:

Think of the big cycle that is going on in their originating country - in particular the cost of housing.

Initially very high wages offshore. The initial rush causes lack of local demand for housing/rentals, dropping or putting subduing the price of those. Then after a few years the money begins to seep back into their home country. The balance between the benefit of carrying on earning an larger wage has to be compared to the now rising costs of housing/rental back home. Then there is a trigger - big sterling fall, money gets repatriated, local excess supply of housing drops significantly and it becomes a race back home to set yourself up for life before prices shoot up the opportunity is gone.

I guess that this is the key problem when trading in a foreign country, whether it is goods, housing or your labour.  Currency fluctuations are going to make it unpredictable. 

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One sure sign that interest rates will be going up in the not to distant future is when they aggressively reduce saving rates for no apparent reason like they are doing now, so as to marginally increase them again when BofE base rate increases by 0.25%.......watch this space.;)

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2 hours ago, One-percent said:

It's been discussed on other threads that the key reason overseas workers are going home is not the threat of brexit per se, but the devaluation of the pound which means the buying power of UK wages is significantly decreased back home.

tptb though are not going to blame fiscal and monetary policy (and as other have said, the lack of vigilance from Carney). Oh no, it's all you thick plebeian xenophobic wrasists that have done this through voting the wrong way

It's got nothing to do with the value of the pound. It *IS* Brexit. 

Not that it matters too much.

Also, expecting wages to go up because workers are leaving is a pipe dream. Expect jobs to go out instead. 

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3 minutes ago, flb said:

It's got nothing to do with the value of the pound. It *IS* Brexit. 

Not that it matters too much.

Also, expecting wages to go up because workers are leaving is a pipe dream. Expect jobs to go out instead. 

I disagree. Financial Armageddon has been baked in since 2007. Brexit gives them a perfect excuse. It's almost as if tptb orchestrated brexit and trump so as to shift the blame when it crashes and burns

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Wages may be up but other working benefits are going down......Just because wages go up doesn't mean income is going up, not in the gig economy.......How can people take on long-term financial commitments when their jobs are less secure and very unpredictable?;)

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I wonder if the average Polish plumber or Hungarian house cleaner really takes into account currency devaluation?

Even if they did, they'd realise the £ to.€ is around average for the last 6 or 7 years.

I think the uncertainty is making them leave. It's certainly affecting my own thinking of where I might settle one day.

 

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4 hours ago, Fromage Frais said:

"seeking work in the UK in the wake of the Brexit vote."

More of a case that why work for £ when after all your work the £ may be work xx% less.

This may snap back with a vengeance once/if the Euro slides again

 

Basically this is a default scenario.

£ Wages were always going to rise once the pound had fallen, as $ wages have already fallen.

This is the mechanism for getting rid of the massive debt pile which also includes unreported pensions liabilities in both the public sector and the state pension.

Those that work and hold stocks will now start to gain ground against the retired.

 

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48 minutes ago, One-percent said:

I disagree. Financial Armageddon has been baked in since 2007. Brexit gives them a perfect excuse. It's almost as if tptb orchestrated brexit and trump so as to shift the blame when it crashes and burns

This isn't about any kind of Armageddon. It's simple logic.

Imagine you have a company. It's yours, 100%. 

Suddenly, you can't hire in the UK anymore - you just can't find people. What are you going to do? Train people - who may or may not be able to learn and may or may not able to do the job and may or may not leave at the first better offer (and they tend to appear once they've gained skills...at your expense) - OR do you go somewhere with plenty of people available?

Once you have the answer to that....

Edited by flb

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2 minutes ago, flb said:

This isn't about any kind of Armageddon. It's simple logic.

Imagine you have a company. It's yours, 100%. 

Suddenly, you can't hire in the UK anymore - you just can't find people. What are you going to do? Train people - who may or may not be able to learn and may or may not able to do the job and may or may not leave at the first better offer (and they tend to appear once they've gained skills...at your expense) - OR do you go somewhere with plenty of people available?

Once you have the answer to that....

You paint a picture of a poor employer here and quite frankly if they are not prepared to train their own staff and threaten to,move operations offshore at the first hurdle, then I would argue that the uk is quite frankly better off without them.  

Would said employer expect the tax payer (aka you and me) to,pay for the training of their employees? Or other businesses?  

This has long been the problem with many poor employers in the uk. They expect to have a readymade workforce with all the skills they require without investing themselves.  

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1 minute ago, shindigger said:

How long is the carrot picking course?

Or the "serve coffee to conference delgates with a baltic indifference" course?

It takes at least three years and then the final outcome should be at the very minimum a 2:1. How else will they know how to pick carrots or pour coffee? 

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If the carrot pickers go we have to pay a few pennies more, or grow your own, or the shark veg company bosses have to drop the all-inclusive package trip to Barbados. It's the chemists and pharmacists et al, mid-level skills and up we should worry about. Trouble is, they're the ones that were seeing EU kids with same or better skills happy to work at 2/3 of their hourly rate, an incentive to vote leave, I imagine...

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6 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

Reported in the Guardian as UK corporations struggling for cheap labour.

Guardian 13/2/17

'UK employers are increasingly struggling to fill jobs in shops, factories and hospitals according to a new report that suggests the shortfall may be down to fewer EU migrants seeking work in the UK in the wake of the Brexit vote.

Company bosses are reporting labour and skills shortages throughout the food supply chain as well as in sectors such as manufacturing, healthcare and hospitality, according to the latest Labour Market Outlook from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) and The Adecco Group, which polls more than 1,000 employers.

One in four also had evidence that the EU nationals they employed were considering either leaving their organisation or the UK in 2017.

Another new survey, the London Employment Monitor, also highlights a 29% drop in professionals job hunting in the City last month, as high fliers look for jobs in other financial centres.

“Many of our non-British clients are choosing to return home, or seeking opportunities elsewhere in Europe”, said Hakan Enver,operations director, at Morgan McKinley Financial Services. “People wanting to get ahead of the threat of having their right to work revoked is understandable, but is a huge loss for the City”.'

 

Wrong sort of inflation obviously.

It could even lead to falling rents which would have the Guardian no doubt bemoaning tough times for the banks and BTLers.

Hi flyers leaving the city or normal people priced out?

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1 hour ago, One-percent said:

I disagree. Financial Armageddon has been baked in since 2007. Brexit gives them a perfect excuse. It's almost as if tptb orchestrated brexit and trump so as to shift the blame when it crashes and burns

Yes my thoughts to - perfectly timed and organised, to many coincidences.

You know it's bad when PoundLand start charging 2pound for everything - not there yet...

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