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2ndtb83

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Hi

Like a lot of people on here I suspect the air is leaking out of the BTL market but this has led me to wonder about how the dynamics might play out in London. As far as I can tell there are several property types that characterise the rental market in London.

The 4-5 beds in Zones 3-5 that have been converted into HMOs. Survival depends on low paid single migrants staying after Brexit. If lots of accession workers go home they'd presumably be sold back to OOs.

Flats in tower blocks/above shops that are essentially unmortgageable but attractive to renters, especially if they're relatively central. Unless they're cash buyers, OOs can't really get these so I'd expect prices to fall hard.

Decent 1-4 bed flats across Zones 1-4, often on nice streets that rent either to professional singles, small groups of singles or families on about £70K. Currently expensive but would be snapped up by younger OOs if prices fell by 40-60 percent.

Nice houses in Zones 1-3 often occupied by groups of median -high paid professionals. As above would be snapped up by OOs keen to raise families if the prices fell to a point that saving for a 10% deposit was no longer a pipe dream.

My question is is there any reliable data that shows the different proportions these property types make up of the overall BTL market? It'd be especially interesting to know in which sectors the newer landlords, presumably with high LTV IO mortgages are concentrated.

 

 

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13 hours ago, 2ndtb83 said:

My question is is there any reliable data that shows the different proportions these property types make up of the overall BTL market? It'd be especially interesting to know in which sectors the newer landlords, presumably with high LTV IO mortgages are concentrated.

 

 

In short,no.Not that I'm aware of.

I'd be interested if anyone does have any info.

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I actually did this! It was remarkably easy, as the commuter trains were sent out empty on the return journey out of the city. Four of us on a five carriage train. Same sort of thing on the return leg. Great days.....

 

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4 hours ago, mowlem said:

I actually did this! It was remarkably easy, as the commuter trains were sent out empty on the return journey out of the city. Four of us on a five carriage train. Same sort of thing on the return leg. Great days.....

 

I have done this for years on and off.

NW1 Camden: Commuted on various contracts to: Milton Keynes, Basingstoke, Reading, Birmingham. Always get a seat, prices WERE not insane, often traveled first class and got a free breakfast and wifi.

Only issue I had was the time sink really. (Max duration was 8 months)

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I don't believe that there will be a signicant EU exodus after Brexit. I think those that are already here will be allowed to stay by some sort of government deal or will already have been here long enough to qualify for residency and/or citizenship. In total I think this won't do much to dent demand for rooms in HMOs at least in the short term. If there is an exodus of EU workers I think there will be a government scheme to bring in people (not necessarily workers) from the commonwealth, of which one region of the world will be overly represented.

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2 minutes ago, assetrichcashpoor said:

I don't believe that there will be a signicant EU exodus after Brexit. I think those that are already here will be allowed to stay by some sort of government deal or will already have been here long enough to qualify for residency and/or citizenship. In total I think this won't do much to dent demand for rooms in HMOs at least in the short term. If there is an exodus of EU workers I think there will be a government scheme to bring in people (not necessarily workers) from the commonwealth, of which one region of the world will be overly represented.

I disagree.

Tax credits and benefits will be stopped.

Youll see most of the EUers post 2008 go.

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Just now, spyguy said:

I disagree.

Tax credits and benefits will be stopped.

Youll see most of the EUers post 2008 go.

I'm not so sure the tax credits and benefits will be stopped though. I think there will be some grandfathering of existing tax credits and benefits for EUers that were here before June 2016. With a less generous reciprocal arrangement with the EU for people who arrived later. Ultimately we don't know what the government wants or will achieve but I can't see them making any of the large changes people want or expect.

 

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Just now, assetrichcashpoor said:

I'm not so sure the tax credits and benefits will be stopped though. I think there will be some grandfathering of existing tax credits and benefits for EUers that were here before June 2016. With a less generous reciprocal arrangement with the EU for people who arrived later. Ultimately we don't know what the government wants or will achieve but I can't see them making any of the large changes people want or expect.

 

They will be.None nationals first, nationals next.

Germany is mo ing fast on denying benefits and, where it has to pay them, reducing payment in line with the other country.

What the gov want? - already been stated. Minimum earning of 32k to come here.

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Quote

I disagree.

Tax credits and benefits will be stopped.

Youll see most of the EUers post 2008 go.

Right. They won't be able to claim benefits, just as incomers from Japan or Guatemala or the USA cannot claim benefits. They'll all be held to the same criteria. The BTL landlord acquaintance of mine with a paper empire of 20 rubbish flats in bad areas of London relies on the displaced lumpen EU masses who receive UK benefits for his 'preferred' pool of victims tenants. He's crapping himself nine ways from Sunday over this. It's going to destroy his tenant base and ultimately he's going to have to try to sell and take whatever he can get for the dumps he's leveraged against each other. The BTL party is over.

 

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I think tax credits and benefits to EUers should stop once the UK leaves the EU but I am not as optimistic as other people on here that the UK government will do that, especially to EUers who have been here a long time and may be legally resident here. The British governments over the years have not done a great deal to stop benefit tourism from the EU and I can't see them doing anything now despite their rhetoric. There are a lot of British pensioners residing in the EU who will be insisting that they be allowed to remain where they are enjoying the services of the state they currently live in for the same terms. I think the UK will be forced into a deal to guarantee existing rights to existing EUers to protect British people abroad. There might be changes for people coming later but what's the point of closing the stable door after the horse has bolted?

I would like to be proved wrong but I don't have much optimism. Without too much tin-foil wrapped around my head I don't think the rampant UK house price inflation was an accident or the governments since 1997 couldn't have stopped it if they wanted to. It was a deliberate ploy to inflate the housing market with cheap credit and the encouragement of But to let. With Brexit beginning to effect the confidence in the economy the current government can't let the housing market crash, not that any government would deliberately let the housing market crash. If that means they have to allow EUers to still be able to claim housing benefit they will do. That would be two birds with one stone, prop up the housing market and a gesture of goodwill to the EU.

Edited by assetrichcashpoor

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7 hours ago, assetrichcashpoor said:

I think tax credits and benefits to EUers should stop once the UK leaves the EU but I am not as optimistic as other people on here that the UK government will do that, especially to EUers who have been here a long time and may be legally resident here. The British governments over the years have not done a great deal to stop benefit tourism from the EU and I can't see them doing anything now despite their rhetoric. There are a lot of British pensioners residing in the EU who will be insisting that they be allowed to remain where they are enjoying the services of the state they currently live in for the same terms. I think the UK will be forced into a deal to guarantee existing rights to existing EUers to protect British people abroad. There might be changes for people coming later but what's the point of closing the stable door after the horse has bolted?

I would like to be proved wrong but I don't have much optimism. Without too much tin-foil wrapped around my head I don't think the rampant UK house price inflation was an accident or the governments since 1997 couldn't have stopped it if they wanted to. It was a deliberate ploy to inflate the housing market with cheap credit and the encouragement of But to let. With Brexit beginning to effect the confidence in the economy the current government can't let the housing market crash, not that any government would deliberately let the housing market crash. If that means they have to allow EUers to still be able to claim housing benefit they will do. That would be two birds with one stone, prop up the housing market and a gesture of goodwill to the EU.

Cameron went cap in hand to the EU to try and stop this ,this was before we voted to leave IMO it would be political suicide not to stop benefits for all EU immigration after we left when it`s solely down to the UK`s leaders to make that decision  

I think there will be a minimum  time contribution based system for those that have been here a certain length of time and i would like to see this as time limited for the amount of time they can claim it 

I also think it will be phased in with child benefit for children not living in this country and HB  being the first to be removed 

Removal of HB will have dire consequences for BTL especially when coupled with S24

Edited by long time lurking

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9 hours ago, assetrichcashpoor said:

I don't believe that there will be a signicant EU exodus after Brexit. I think those that are already here will be allowed to stay by some sort of government deal or will already have been here long enough to qualify for residency and/or citizenship. In total I think this won't do much to dent demand for rooms in HMOs at least in the short term. If there is an exodus of EU workers I think there will be a government scheme to bring in people (not necessarily workers) from the commonwealth, of which one region of the world will be overly represented.

Falling pound makes it less worthwhile to come here, ppl can save the same amount in Germany which is much closer to their families. If pound falls 10-20% more no one will even consider coming here from the eu.

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2 hours ago, jo_gian said:

Falling pound makes it less worthwhile to come here, ppl can save the same amount in Germany which is much closer to their families. If pound falls 10-20% more no one will even consider coming here from the eu.

Absolutely. Lowering the living standards for everyone in the country solves the immigration problem at once, while still being politically correct so everyone is happy.  No need for Brexit!

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1 hour ago, Bear Hug said:

Absolutely. Lowering the living standards for everyone in the country solves the immigration problem at once, while still being politically correct so everyone is happy.  No need for Brexit!

Overpopulation in London has already lowered living standards, polluted air, congested transport, people losing 4 hours a day of their lives traveling to work, Concreting over yet more of the countryside to accommodate the world’s population in shoe boxes and moving people even further away from their place of work and family will just make life intolerable.

I'm convinced that immigration is costing us money despite the rhetoric from government. We are increasing our services sector with mass immigration, full of low paid, low skilled jobs that have low tax yields, how can it be beneficial to our prosperity? It is beneficial to the large corporate prosperity to have slaves but not that of the residents of the country. 

I would love for an independent honest accountant to look at immigration costs factoring in, health care, schools, benefits, pensions, crime, housing and also how much of the money earnt is farmed out to the home nations from which they came. Also the asset stripping by the EU, contributions and loss of money through EU competition laws where we buy goods and services from other EU countries that could be sourced locally employing local people. I think the loss to the UK and its people is gargantous. You only have to look at our countries spiraling debt and stagnant wages to realize the government are lying about how brilliant it all is!

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4 hours ago, macca13 said:

Overpopulation in London has already lowered living standards, polluted air, congested transport, people losing 4 hours a day of their lives traveling to work, Concreting over yet more of the countryside to accommodate the world’s population in shoe boxes and moving people even further away from their place of work and family will just make life intolerable.

I'm convinced that immigration is costing us money despite the rhetoric from government. We are increasing our services sector with mass immigration, full of low paid, low skilled jobs that have low tax yields, how can it be beneficial to our prosperity? It is beneficial to the large corporate prosperity to have slaves but not that of the residents of the country. 

I would love for an independent honest accountant to look at immigration costs factoring in, health care, schools, benefits, pensions, crime, housing and also how much of the money earnt is farmed out to the home nations from which they came. Also the asset stripping by the EU, contributions and loss of money through EU competition laws where we buy goods and services from other EU countries that could be sourced locally employing local people. I think the loss to the UK and its people is gargantous. You only have to look at our countries spiraling debt and stagnant wages to realize the government are lying about how brilliant it all is!

 

Even without tax credits, financial benefits of immigration of low skilled families is pretty poor.

If migrants werecsingle, earned 40k+ then id be over the moon.

Migrants are not. With tax credits its a bunch of unemoloyable families. Each pulls about 1.5k tax credits and benefits. Then 5-6k per kid school, 4k head nhs.

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Work in the NHS.

Its relies heavily on migrant workers as we all know (so many great nurses are Spanish and Phillipino).

But I've lost count the number of immigrant patients I have. And that makes sense. Not wealthy enough for private healthcare, some don't understand the system (you don't call an ambulance / go to A&E for a cold) and others think we are rich nation and our pockets are bottomless. 

 

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8 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

Absolutely. Lowering the living standards for everyone in the country solves the immigration problem at once, while still being politically correct so everyone is happy.  No need for Brexit!

The only reason for immigration in all countries is to replace the never born children of the financially exploited middle class with someone else.

You can increase asset prices if you increase the level of financial exploitation. You can do it if you have more and more people fighting for their basic needs on a limited stock. If people in your country need to save up until their forties to get a one bed flat, they will have much less time for reproduction, less children, so you need immigrants to replace their unborn children.

This is how politics are using us, our children and immigrants to generate wealth, so that their numbers look good.

Everyone talks about the few hundred poor refugee children, but no one talks about the unborn tens of millions of OUR children, who are not even existing due to the financial exploitation going on.

The only purpose of immigrants is to have more people fighting for the same stock. We don't give them free houses, they don't earn too much - we just "help" them to come here and then let them suffer in the same way as our own people, they can just fight here with everyone else for the good life, so our asset prices can stay high. They are also victims just like us and once they realise this, now that will be the basis of radicalisation.

This whole system is the biggest scam of the last 50 years, crime against your own people, crime against humanity in the name of banks, wealth and greed against tens (maybe hundreds) of millions.

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2 hours ago, Jozers said:

Work in the NHS.

Its relies heavily on migrant workers as we all know (so many great nurses are Spanish and Phillipino).

But I've lost count the number of immigrant patients I have. And that makes sense. Not wealthy enough for private healthcare, some don't understand the system (you don't call an ambulance / go to A&E for a cold) and others think we are rich nation and our pockets are bottomless. 

 

5% of the population of the UK is from Europe. 5% of NHS staff are from Europe

13% of the population of UK is non-UK born. 12% of NHS staff are non UK born.

You could assume that Brexit is a zero sum game for the NHS, unless you believe that non UK-born use the NHS more than their UK born counterparts.

 

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3 minutes ago, CunningPlan said:

5% of the population of the UK is from Europe. 5% of NHS staff are from Europe

13% of the population of UK is non-UK born. 12% of NHS staff are non UK born.

You could assume that Brexit is a zero sum game for the NHS, unless you believe that non UK-born use the NHS more than their UK born counterparts.

 

I think you'll find the this is true.

You have migrants turning up with expensive chronic conditions.

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22 hours ago, spyguy said:

They will be.None nationals first, nationals next.

Germany is mo ing fast on denying benefits and, where it has to pay them, reducing payment in line with the other country.

What the gov want? - already been stated. Minimum earning of 32k to come here.

That shows how expensive the UK is now, that you need £32k p.a. to not cost the country anything

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3 hours ago, CunningPlan said:

5% of the population of the UK is from Europe. 5% of NHS staff are from Europe

13% of the population of UK is non-UK born. 12% of NHS staff are non UK born.

You could assume that Brexit is a zero sum game for the NHS, unless you believe that non UK-born use the NHS more than their UK born counterparts.

 

I totally agree I go mad when mp's use the "look at our NHS" card. Everyone nods and accepts that without migrants it would not run..

but its cause and effect, add 10 million more migrants, 50'000 more doctors required.. 100'000 more builders required.. more people forever need more services.. remove migrants from the country for the last 80 years and you would probably not need the 50'000 NHS workers..

we have all turned into brainwashed sheep, overpopulation is not for our benefit and will not make our life better! 

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