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Mail journos' doubts over housing market

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Two Mail personal finance journos sounding pretty skeptical about the housing market and trashing the housing white paper in this Share Radio podcast.

Nothing too bearish right off, but clear understanding the market is 'too big to fail' and has been propped to the limit of affordability. Then right at the end the male journo (who edits the Mail's finance section) calls a slump in three years' time. 

The housing segment runs from 05:05 to 34:00. 

https://www.shareradio.co.uk/podcasts/this-is-money-housing-madness-10-feb-17//PodcastPlayer

 

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1 hour ago, Patient London FTB said:

Nothing too bearish right off, but clear understanding the market is 'too big to fail' and has been propped to the limit of affordability.

The housing market is too big to fail?

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24 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

The housing market is too big to fail?

Sorry, bit vague. 

It's at 12.35ish. One of them says the white paper is rubbish but if you asked her what she would put in it she would hesitate, because her ideas would involve taking away the things that have inflated demand. "And that involves a property crash ... which no-one really wants. A lot of our sense of wealth is tied up in property ... It's not just about the housing market, it's the whole economy. It's got too big. It's the ultimate too big to fail. We can't go back on it now."

 

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yes, but the bank of England did a study and it found as house prices rise homeowners spent more money but as house prices fell homeowner didn't spend any money - homeowners actually stopped eating and breathing. it's such narrow minded nonsense to think lower house prices will lead to financial armageddon. 

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18 hours ago, Patient London FTB said:

Sorry, bit vague. 

It's at 12.35ish. One of them says the white paper is rubbish but if you asked her what she would put in it she would hesitate, because her ideas would involve taking away the things that have inflated demand. "And that involves a property crash ... which no-one really wants. A lot of our sense of wealth is tied up in property ... It's not just about the housing market, it's the whole economy. It's got too big. It's the ultimate too big to fail. We can't go back on it now."

 

This annoys me beyond words

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18 hours ago, cool_hand said:

yes, but the bank of England did a study and it found as house prices rise homeowners spent more money but as house prices fell homeowner didn't spend any money - homeowners actually stopped eating and breathing. it's such narrow minded nonsense to think lower house prices will lead to financial armageddon. 

1. I do no trust BOE

2. "Homeowners spent more BORROWED money"

Lower house prices means POP??

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22 hours ago, cool_hand said:

Yes I listened to it and I thought she was and idiot because she's saying f*uck young people and f*uck anyone who can't afford to buy a home.

Allowing prices to drop is an even bigger fu, though. With the financial sector up to its neck in mortgage-backed derivatives, a fall is a huge fu to everyone, homeowners and renters alike.

You'd think "****** bankers/traders", but when you realise just how much the economy depends on the financial sector...

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19 minutes ago, mrtickle said:

No, it's the lesser of the evils.

 

Well... It's between ******ing renters and ******ing everyone. Can't really decide which is the lesser evil on this one.

What should one choose? Cheap housing with ******ed up economy and no jobs or expensive housing with plenty of jobs (but many of them not paying enough)

I don't have an answer.

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4 minutes ago, flb said:

Allowing prices to drop is an even bigger fu, though. With the financial sector up to its neck in mortgage-backed derivatives, a fall is a huge fu to everyone, homeowners and renters alike.

You'd think "****** bankers/traders", but when you realise just how much the economy depends on the financial sector...

So either have cut backs to the Police, Fire Brigade etc. due to the actions of the financial sector or let it go to the wall, making it worse?

Like being a battered wife? stay with the situation and get a bed to sleep on but punched in the face daily, or leave for a new life in which there is no bed in the immediate future.

That comparison can only be quite metaphorical because actual victims of domestic violence are getting a double shafting by the housing situation. https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/the-housing-crisis-is-even-worse-for-victims-of-domestic-violence

I feel there is a third option which might be better.

 

2 minutes ago, mrtickle said:

No, it's the lesser of the evils.

I agree, but must be ignorant of something because I can't see how cutting off the dead / parasitic limb from the body of the real economy and therefore a HPC can be bad.

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6 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

So either have cut backs to the Police, Fire Brigade etc. due to the actions of the financial sector or let it go to the wall, making it worse?

Like being a battered wife? stay with the situation and get a bed to sleep on but punched in the face daily, or leave for a new life in which there is no bed in the immediate future.

 

Excellent analogy. The second option, the fresh start, is always dishonestly misrepresented (in housing terms) as equally terrible, and unthinkably bad. "Prevent at all costs, even if it means getting punched in the face daily."

 

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1 minute ago, mrtickle said:

Excellent analogy. The second option, the fresh start, is always dishonestly misrepresented (in housing terms) as equally terrible, and unthinkably bad. "Prevent at all costs, even if it means getting punched in the face daily."

Thanks :) Perhaps a bit like pre Brexit sky will fall propaganda.

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32 minutes ago, flb said:

Well... It's between ******ing renters and ******ing everyone. Can't really decide which is the lesser evil on this one.

What should one choose? Cheap housing with ******ed up economy and no jobs or expensive housing with plenty of jobs (but many of them not paying enough)

I don't have an answer.

I read your other posts, I wouldn't live in London either. Have you done the maths on the cost renting where you intend to move vs various HPC scenarios.

i.e. if you rent cheaper elsewhere then buy cheaper later or buy cheaper elsewhere but lose more than you would have paid in cheaper rent if there is HPC.

Edited by Arpeggio

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Costs are somewhat irrelevant to me. But like I said, on this one, I don't have an answer.

Some people called this a false dichotomy. Sure it is. Until it's your job.

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.

Quote

 "And that involves a property crash ... which no-one really wants.

She doesn't know as it's never publicly debated (or voted on) in any real sense of the word debated - and likely "no-one" to her means no-one in her circle.  

Treasury threats of significant house price falls didn't put off a majority of people voting to leave the eu.

The true options and consequences are never publicly presented and where the past and present policies have brought the UK to now is never honestly aired and broadcast.  That is compared to europe the UK has the tiniest homes and almost certainly the most expensive homes (on a square metre basis) and gdp per capita leaves a lot to be desired - and so on.   

Biased sound bites, superficiality and spin is the "debate".  

The current system is a big *** to people outside of the sphere of the banking and financial sector (that sphere including house building and land etc along with the media and its advertising revenue and so on).  It's also a big *** to the real economy of the UK, people in the real economy and likely the UK's future outside of the preferred people and sectors.

Edited by billybong

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6 hours ago, billybong said:

She doesn't know as it's never publicly debated (or voted on) in any real sense of the word debated - and likely "no-one" to her means no-one in her circle. 

http://moneyweek.com/property-investors-beware-people-want-house-prices-to-fall/

"Looking at the figures in more detail, nearly 60% of British homeowners and nearly 80% of renters thought a drop in prices would be a good thing"

I would like to know why the homeowners? Are they looking for a good deal on a downturn for a profit later? Or do boomers care about their gene line being extinct?

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On 10/02/2017 at 7:50 PM, Patient London FTB said:

Sorry, bit vague. 

It's at 12.35ish. One of them says the white paper is rubbish but if you asked her what she would put in it she would hesitate, because her ideas would involve taking away the things that have inflated demand. "And that involves a property crash ... which no-one really wants. A lot of our sense of wealth is tied up in property ... It's not just about the housing market, it's the whole economy. It's got too big. It's the ultimate too big to fail. We can't go back on it now."

 

tulipmania3.jpg

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On 10/02/2017 at 8:27 PM, cool_hand said:

yes, but the bank of England did a study and it found as house prices rise homeowners spent more money but as house prices fell homeowner didn't spend any money - homeowners actually stopped eating and breathing. it's such narrow minded nonsense to think lower house prices will lead to financial armageddon. 

And non-home owners ?

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On 12/02/2017 at 1:16 PM, billybong said:

.

She doesn't know as it's never publicly debated (or voted on) in any real sense of the word debated - and likely "no-one" to her means no-one in her circle.  

Treasury threats of significant house price falls didn't put off a majority of people voting to leave the eu.

The true options and consequences are never publicly presented and where the past and present policies have brought the UK to now is never honestly aired and broadcast.  That is compared to europe the UK has the tiniest homes and almost certainly the most expensive homes (on a square metre basis) and gdp per capita leaves a lot to be desired - and so on.   

Biased sound bites, superficiality and spin is the "debate".  

The current system is a big *** to people outside of the sphere of the banking and financial sector (that sphere including house building and land etc along with the media and its advertising revenue and so on).  It's also a big *** to the real economy of the UK, people in the real economy and likely the UK's future outside of the preferred people and sectors.

Good points, I wasn't too sure in the campaign if cheaper houses, if we left was an argument for or against leaving the EU.

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