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Having just gone through the painful process of having been dumped on the street by my LLL  (lovely landlord,)  I have in the past few weeks found out of around eight other tenants all in the same boat, entirely without warning, and this is without me actively looking for this sort of information.

So- our LLLs all want to hit the market late March to early April.    Just how many properties will all be unleashed at the same time?  Immediate effect is going to be to push up rents on the remaining available rental properties, which is quite sad.  So now we have a glut of ex BTL props. having been decorated, (money)  voids- I shouldn't laugh really.  EA fees and taxes to pay.

And they are all going to chase the market down.  It's human nature, (I did it late eighties- oops) and the very people these props are there to house will be out on their ears, and no way able to get a deposit together.

Roll on to Summer '17, and quarterly figures hit the media. add another three months and the press are going to be making a killing out of "the new housing crisis."  Meanwhile the government will saying WTAF how did this shit storm happen.

Can someone tell me which bits I got wrong, as I'm trying to work this out for myself.   The sad thing is that this is going to genuine new (already) homeowner properties down as well.

Throw in initial Brexit salvoes, the City- corps getting  ever more edgy, stir in some Trump and Chi-invest watching prices slide.. 

"Captain- there's a cluster****** on the horizon."

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7 minutes ago, CunningPlan said:

Oh dear ...... here we go ....

+1 this is what I don't understand, how will any homeowner benefit out of rising house price, he cannot sell it for profit and live in the streets. Its similar to the TFL rail pass fare rise in January, people feel I bought it on Dec-31 beat the fair rise, without knowing the price they pay is already the rise they thought they avoided last year, and the feb fare is going to be higher anyways.

The " genuine new (already) homeowner propertie" going up is affecting their own kids which they are unaware.... After decades of price rise,emergency interest rate economy....Is it unaware.... they are actaully idiots

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3 hours ago, Shea VanHaven said:

Having just gone through the painful process of having been dumped on the street by my LLL  (lovely landlord,)  I have in the past few weeks found out of around eight other tenants all in the same boat, entirely without warning, and this is without me actively looking for this sort of information.

So- our LLLs all want to hit the market late March to early April.    Just how many properties will all be unleashed at the same time?  Immediate effect is going to be to push up rents on the remaining available rental properties, which is quite sad.  So now we have a glut of ex BTL props. having been decorated, (money)  voids- I shouldn't laugh really.  EA fees and taxes to pay.

And they are all going to chase the market down.  It's human nature, (I did it late eighties- oops) and the very people these props are there to house will be out on their ears, and no way able to get a deposit together.

Roll on to Summer '17, and quarterly figures hit the media. add another three months and the press are going to be making a killing out of "the new housing crisis."  Meanwhile the government will saying WTAF how did this shit storm happen.

Can someone tell me which bits I got wrong, as I'm trying to work this out for myself.   The sad thing is that this is going to genuine new (already) homeowner properties down as well.

Throw in initial Brexit salvoes, the City- corps getting  ever more edgy, stir in some Trump and Chi-invest watching prices slide.. 

"Captain- there's a cluster****** on the horizon."

Sorry to hear that SVH. Mind me asking what part of the country you're living in? 

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14 minutes ago, Gush said:

+1 this is what I don't understand, how will any homeowner benefit out of rising house price, he cannot sell it for profit and live in the streets. Its similar to the TFL rail pass fare rise in January, people feel I bought it on Dec-31 beat the fair rise, without knowing the price they pay is already the rise they thought they avoided last year, and the feb fare is going to be higher anyways.

The " genuine new (already) homeowner propertie" going up is affecting their own kids which they are unaware.... After decades of price rise,emergency interest rate economy....Is it unaware.... they are actaully idiots

It's easy to see who's profitting....the rich land lords, the 1000 year old familys that own the land, The over 50/60 who bought into the bubble at the right time, the levered up ( if they sold ) and of course....THE MONEY LENDERS.

C4PfvFvWYAIR1i0.jpg

 

Of course many of the normal working folk who have got lucky will loose it all in care home fees/pension equity release etc.

 

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1 hour ago, Gush said:

+1 this is what I don't understand, how will any homeowner benefit out of rising house price, he cannot sell it for profit and live in the streets. Its similar to the TFL rail pass fare rise in January, people feel I bought it on Dec-31 beat the fair rise, without knowing the price they pay is already the rise they thought they avoided last year, and the feb fare is going to be higher anyways.

The " genuine new (already) homeowner propertie" going up is affecting their own kids which they are unaware.... After decades of price rise,emergency interest rate economy....Is it unaware.... they are actaully idiots

Well yes- as I said the perfect storm.  I think the biggest driver is the indoctrination of post boomer by the boomers, and now boomer nouveax is going to get roasted on a spit.      Having been coming to HPC since 2005/6, and sort of forgotten about this place in the mists of time, it's interesting to see how it's all going. It really doesn't bother me as when dear Mum pops her clogs (she's old and I need to care for her) I will be buggering off to sunny Sicily.   I just want everyone who made my life exceptionally fruitless for the last fifteen years to feel some pain.  I have come to the conclusion that the "British Idiot" is possibly the most idiotic of the whole breed.  I'm actually glad I'm out of this home, needed it when the kids were growing up.  Once I show them the quality and cost of life elsewhere, they will no doubt be following me.

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4 hours ago, Shea VanHaven said:

Having just gone through the painful process of having been dumped on the street by my LLL  (lovely landlord,)  I have in the past few weeks found out of around eight other tenants all in the same boat, entirely without warning, and this is without me actively looking for this sort of information.

So- our LLLs all want to hit the market late March to early April.    Just how many properties will all be unleashed at the same time?  Immediate effect is going to be to push up rents on the remaining available rental properties, which is quite sad.  So now we have a glut of ex BTL props. having been decorated, (money)  voids- I shouldn't laugh really.  EA fees and taxes to pay.

And they are all going to chase the market down.  It's human nature, (I did it late eighties- oops) and the very people these props are there to house will be out on their ears, and no way able to get a deposit together.

Roll on to Summer '17, and quarterly figures hit the media. add another three months and the press are going to be making a killing out of "the new housing crisis."  Meanwhile the government will saying WTAF how did this shit storm happen.

Can someone tell me which bits I got wrong, as I'm trying to work this out for myself.   The sad thing is that this is going to genuine new (already) homeowner properties down as well.

Throw in initial Brexit salvoes, the City- corps getting  ever more edgy, stir in some Trump and Chi-invest watching prices slide.. 

"Captain- there's a cluster****** on the horizon."

 

Not necessarily.  And if so, perhaps only a small amount for a short time.   Houses may be sold to the best positioned renter-savers (best earners/savings), leaving a gap in the market for landlords of other rental properties, with lower earning tenants, so have to reduce rental prices.   And a BTL house sold to a OO (previous renter) is a good thing imo.  Balances out.   Many of us have been messed around for years by the BTLers.  They took their positions, and tenants with such low levels of security of tenure with ASTs.  The BTLers all been part of that.  Taking advantage.  Let's get this done.

Really sounds like a big cry to protect HPI to me.  The sad thing is the HPI protectorz.   How about the sad thing of millions of families renting-saving after a big BLTer double down, and another huge surge of HPI last few years in so many areas.   No one dragged anyone into outbidding other families by fortunes in recent years.  Choice.

The cluster**** is in the here and now, for millions of renter-saver families in this extreme housing fiancialisation. 

Get a stomach for some fallback, and to allow them opportunity.

If there is anything to the rest of your post, then it's encouraging that BTLers and more supply may be coming to market.  And if some sellers begin to cut prices in order to sell, then values fall at the margin for the mad-gainzers.

 

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5 hours ago, Shea VanHaven said:

Having just gone through the painful process of having been dumped on the street by my LLL  (lovely landlord,)

 

5 hours ago, Shea VanHaven said:

And they are all going to chase the market down.  It's human nature, (I did it late eighties- oops) and the very people these props are there to house will be out on their ears, and no way able to get a deposit together.

The BTLers/LLs properties exist to house people eh?  Protect!

So many renter-savers I know have been slow-grind getting deposit together in rented.   You know.... 10 years in rented you outline below, along with many a notice given or unwelcome BTLer interference along the way.  

You can't cast all renters as not having put some position together to buy (deposit) if we get any BTLer sell off/market falls ahead, in the 'protect the mad-gainz/system as it is' calls.  

Your experience of trying to sell in the 80s is your experience.   If someone bought your house at better value, that's a market.

On 1/11/2017 at 7:44 PM, Shea VanHaven said:

Ten years almost to the day in rented- got my marching orders last Friday.  Builder Landlord retiring- says he cannot get another mortgage at 70.    The next day I heard of a work colleague of the missus had the same thing happen to her last week..

-

Neverwhere, on 26 Apr 2016 - 9:13 PM, said:snapback.png

 

The current lack of affordability is severely negatively impacting on the quality of life of both younger generations and those who did not happen to buy at the right moment in time.

 

The idea that it might perpetuate or worsen is doom and gloom. The idea that from here on out there will only ever be minor corrections is doom and gloom.

 

In contrast, the idea that house prices might fall back in line with historic income multiples is heartening and uplifting to anyone with a social conscience.

 

Edited by Venger

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Well it was around a year ago now that I theorised that maybe the BTLers were stupid enough to pile in ahead of April 2016 pushing prices up by more than they'd save in stamp duty, and then all want a tenant at once pushing rents down in the aftermath.

I didn't really believe it, but the theory went that if the collective stupidity was that great, then there would an exodus ahead of April 2017 as they try to time the market and sell at maximum profit, driving prices down.

Everything I've seen so far suggests that outlandish idea was actually correct, and so I see no reason not to expect the next several months to be an increasingly bloody bath.

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To theorise.    Let's say there is a sudden market glut, and prices do slide, then very very quickly we have neg.eq. locked in mortgagees (lovely for the banks- sitting ducks,) BUT-  also, the finance corps become extremely cautious to lend high (ish) values against depreciating housing stock (exposure) to new customers/prospects, so people cannot buy even if they want to, and perhaps thought they would now be in a position to do so- again- WTAF will happen? 

I and many others made huge sweeping predictions 10-12 years ago, and we were all left completely gobsmacked by the lack of a true crash, will it be the same again this time?

 

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Conditions change and cascade, lenders tighten... so renters-savers/upsizers can't buy even though they wanted to....

....... then sellers will have to lower prices even further to better affordability levels.  

So the renter-savers hard-grind deposits go further toward buying.

Do you know where you are?

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47 minutes ago, Shea VanHaven said:

To theorise.    Let's say there is a sudden market glut, and prices do slide, then very very quickly we have neg.eq. locked in mortgagees (lovely for the banks- sitting ducks,) BUT-  also, the finance corps become extremely cautious to lend high (ish) values against depreciating housing stock (exposure) to new customers/prospects, so people cannot buy even if they want to, and perhaps thought they would now be in a position to do so- again- WTAF will happen? 

I and many others made huge sweeping predictions 10-12 years ago, and we were all left completely gobsmacked by the lack of a true crash, will it be the same again this time?

 

Suspect a relatively quick lurch down in properties more suited for FTB/rental than long-term OO. They'll hit a level FTBs and cash-buyer landlords will be comfortable paying. 

But there'll also be a protracted readjustment on the rungs above FTB/BTL properties. Due to the lack of people who've been able to become OOs over the past few years, there'll be little demand for properties up the ladder. Also those who own rental properties as well as their own big home will be retrenching. 

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58 minutes ago, Shea VanHaven said:

To theorise.    Let's say there is a sudden market glut, and prices do slide, then very very quickly we have neg.eq. locked in mortgagees (lovely for the banks- sitting ducks,) BUT-  also, the finance corps become extremely cautious to lend high (ish) values against depreciating housing stock (exposure) to new customers/prospects, so people cannot buy even if they want to, and perhaps thought they would now be in a position to do so- again- WTAF will happen? 

I and many others made huge sweeping predictions 10-12 years ago, and we were all left completely gobsmacked by the lack of a true crash, will it be the same again this time?

 

So you're suggesting prices won't fall because nobody will be able to afford them?

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2 hours ago, Shea VanHaven said:

To theorise.    Let's say there is a sudden market glut, and prices do slide, then very very quickly we have neg.eq. locked in mortgagees (lovely for the banks- sitting ducks,) BUT-  also, the finance corps become extremely cautious to lend high (ish) values against depreciating housing stock (exposure) to new customers/prospects, so people cannot buy even if they want to, and perhaps thought they would now be in a position to do so- again- WTAF will happen? 

I and many others made huge sweeping predictions 10-12 years ago, and we were all left completely gobsmacked by the lack of a true crash, will it be the same again this time?

 

Banks tightening up their criteria should be good news for effective savers. I'm not talking about people who've just about scraped a 5% or 10% deposit together. If you're serious about buying at the right time and protecting yourself from negative equity then you should be looking at nothing less than a 20% deposit and if that means a lifestyle overhaul (a la frugal git) then so be it! We've saved up 25% at current prices and by the time a crash comes I reckon we'll be looking at anything upwards of a 40% deposit.

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6 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

It's easy to see who's profitting....the rich land lords, the 1000 year old familys that own the land, The over 50/60 who bought into the bubble at the right time, the levered up ( if they sold ) and of course....THE MONEY LENDERS.

C4PfvFvWYAIR1i0.jpg

 

Of course many of the normal working folk who have got lucky will loose it all in care home fees/pension equity release etc.

 

+1

With the money lenders massively active at every level - except perhaps at the 1% level as they're likely also at the top of the money lenders pyramid.

Edited by billybong

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4 hours ago, Digsby said:

Well it was around a year ago now that I theorised that maybe the BTLers were stupid enough to pile in ahead of April 2016 pushing prices up by more than they'd save in stamp duty, and then all want a tenant at once pushing rents down in the aftermath.

I didn't really believe it, but the theory went that if the collective stupidity was that great, then there would an exodus ahead of April 2017 as they try to time the market and sell at maximum profit, driving prices down.

Everything I've seen so far suggests that outlandish idea was actually correct, and so I see no reason not to expect the next several months to be an increasingly bloody bath.

They should have timed it like the lot in the link below rather than hanging on until too late

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2616510/Duke-Westminsters-property-company-sells-240million-luxury-homes-fears-London-bubble-burst.html

Mind you the money might probably be going into Build to Rent.

Edited by billybong

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10 hours ago, Shea VanHaven said:

Having just gone through the painful process of having been dumped on the street by my LLL  (lovely landlord,)  I have in the past few weeks found out of around eight other tenants all in the same boat, entirely without warning, and this is without me actively looking for this sort of information.

So- our LLLs all want to hit the market late March to early April.    Just how many properties will all be unleashed at the same time?  Immediate effect is going to be to push up rents on the remaining available rental properties, which is quite sad.  So now we have a glut of ex BTL props. having been decorated, (money)  voids- I shouldn't laugh really.  EA fees and taxes to pay.

And they are all going to chase the market down.  It's human nature, (I did it late eighties- oops) and the very people these props are there to house will be out on their ears, and no way able to get a deposit together.

Roll on to Summer '17, and quarterly figures hit the media. add another three months and the press are going to be making a killing out of "the new housing crisis."  Meanwhile the government will saying WTAF how did this shit storm happen.

Can someone tell me which bits I got wrong, as I'm trying to work this out for myself.   The sad thing is that this is going to genuine new (already) homeowner properties down as well.

Throw in initial Brexit salvoes, the City- corps getting  ever more edgy, stir in some Trump and Chi-invest watching prices slide.. 

"Captain- there's a cluster****** on the horizon."

If S24 et al doesn't start a HPC, then coming out of the EU without a deal, and trading on WTO terms will be the event that triggers it all off...

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Not just S24 but Basel 3 as well..

 

Sell off in 2018/19?

Our analysis of the data used to populate the table on the prior page suggests that we might see BTL property coming to the sales market between April 2018 and April 2019. This is when the first and second tranches of the removal of interest rate relief come into effect which will be combined with an increase in capital charges for banks under Basel III which will push mortgage rates up.

 

It will just not be economically viable for many Landlords to continue to provide rental accommodation and if they want to, they may find themselves trapped by not being able to re-new their financing. This is GREAT news for the government as there will be more properties on the market (bearing in mind that if the 19% of the Landlords in the NLA poll do sell that, will be an additional 163,000 homes on the market 

 

This situation does seem to us akin to a slow motion train crash: BTL Landlords with Mortgages are standing on the track in a game of chicken with regulatory locomotive, hoping to time their exit as best as possible. This high-risk game will almost undoubtedly leave casualties.

 

http://www.maskells.co.uk/news/maskells-research/what-next-for-the-buytolet-market-in-london.html

 

 

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^

That suggests that the time to sell is right now (last year would have been better)  before all those big increases start to take effect.  It would depend on individual BtLers' circumstances of course but the future looks bleaker with every passing year.  The knock on to owner occupier prices is a factor as well as the risk of higher interest rates and actions like the West Bromwich BS v BtLers' on interest rates.

Edited by billybong

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Lets imagine houses half in value. GBP also drops 25% against the dollar/basket of foreign currencies.

You are a Chinese businessman who's made your first million of free profit.  Your friends all have property in the UK, most in PCL but some in the suburbs where they rent to extended family.

Someone phones you up and say that houses in London are now around 40% the cost of a year ago.

Do you i) wait, hoping to get an extra 20% off but run the risk of losing everything in China due to a corrupt local government official (happens) or a court finding out about your dodgy dealings whilst you built your empire (common)

ii) fill yer boots.

 

I know what I would do

 

Until they plug the foreign investor gap, I think the next crash will be cushioned more than previous natural crashes were...

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