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Bruce Banner

CML - Lowest number of repossessions since 1982

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Sounds like the media is becoming particularly polarised now, as things apparently start to turn.

Historically the narrative has always been that HPI is a wonderful thing that will continue ad infinitum and that BTL is a legit and victim-less means of investing.. with very few column-inches devoted to the suggestions that rampant HPI is unsustainable / undesirable or that BTL is driving this horrible distortion of the market.

Now, in the face of price growth no longer being rampant everywhere (falling PCL, stagnation in other areas) plus the legislative moves being made to limit BTL, the pro-BTL brigade are getting more vocal and opposite sides of the argument (BTL is great, HPI forever versus BTL is an evil social cancer and prices are falling) now seem to be getting more coverage in the press.. each potentially feeding off each other / ramping up the rhetoric as they can both smell the blood in the water..

Unsurprising that repos are at a low considering that, in the short term at least everything is "affordable" thanks to the record low rates. Once CPI starts to bite thanks to our weak currency and people find it harder to make the monthly payments, potentially lose their jobs in the face of possibly rising interest rates (if we follow the yanks) that's all sure to change IMO.

This all smacks of increasingly overt and desperate ploys to keep the market propped up / turning over - I was shocked and disgusted recently to read a statement by some scumbag at countrywide, which, paraphrasing basically stated: "now's a great time to buy as the monthly repayments are soooooo cheap" clearly selling the idea on the short term prospects rather than the potential to borrow a sh*t-ton of money to buy into a bubble, which may well pop soon leaving you with enormous debt and negative equity in the face of rising interest rates. Unless he's a complete moron, I bet he's the last person who'd take notice of / offer that sort of advice to anyone he cared about. Of course the cash-cow sheeple of this country are conditioned to only view the most optimistic outlook, rather than the whole situation that includes the very real risks..

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ftb_fml -No surprise house builders and EAs claim now is a great time to buy...errr...sorry but its the worst time to buy in living memory...folks entering the market now for the first time really do need to go in with both eyes wide opens not "close your eyes and buy at new highs"

 

Low unemployment is supporting these low repro numbers...I expect for a meaningful crash we will need rising unemployment and recession...its only a matter of time...or is it the end of 'boom and bust'...I wonder...?

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If the banks do not want cash from savers why would they want the cash that is locked in non paying mortgage holders homes?

Better to leave that house/asset on the balance sheet.

With (next to) free money from the government why not.





 

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Not surprising really. The government has nationalised money lending and invested hundreds of billions in residential property loans. Those mortgages are government backed so default and repossession is no longer an option. I remember when the NHS was the largest nationalised resource and national treasure. Now it's RBS and the other pyramid lending scams. Not surprising that even rich people with millions in property assets now stand a good chance of dying on a hospital trolley waiting to be seen by an overworked Polish doctor enticed to England with gifts and tax breaks. Society has been broken. EU has been used as a decoy by the boomers, even though the meltdown has been all designed and implemented in the UK.  If you wanted to create a failed state, they have provided the template.  

Edited by ingermany
Shitty android autocorrectopicallyricalimony

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14 minutes ago, ingermany said:

Not surprising really. The government has nationalised money lending and invested hundreds of billions in residential property loans. Those mortgages are government backed so default and repossession is no longer an option. I remember when the NHS was the largest nationalised resource and national treasure. Now it's RBS and the other pyramid lending scams. Not surprising that even rich people with millions in property assets now stand a good chance centre of dying on a hospital trolley waiting to be seen by an overworked Polish doctor enticed to England with gifts and tax breaks. Society has been broken. EU has been used as a decoy by the boomers, even though the meltdown has been all designed and implemented in the UK.  If you wanted to create a failed state, they have provided the template.  

You are right. HPC will not be a bank crisis, it will be a state collapse. They will prop house prices until they can't any longer. . 

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5 minutes ago, slawek said:

You are right. HPC will not be a bank crisis, it will be a state collapse. They will prop house prices until they can't any longer. . 

That's been evident for some time.  This is why I am particularly worried.

The bankers will walk away with everything and you and I my friend will have nothing.

If my "northampton doubled" thread is anything to go buy we have massive hyper inflation and we are about to see money become worthless.

I think this was all predicted several years ago on here....where's the list of how this is going to pan out ?

It's time to start looking to protect yourselves me thinks.

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7 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

That's been evident for some time.  This is why I am particularly worried.

The bankers will walk away with everything and you and I my friend will have nothing.

If my "northampton doubled" thread is anything to go buy we have massive hyper inflation and we are about to see money become worthless.

I think this was all predicted several years ago on here....where's the list of how this is going to pan out ?

It's time to start looking to protect yourselves me thinks.

When Albania had its pyramid selling fiasco their government had a choice of either allowing investors to lose their money or of printing money to repay the losers.  They chose to allow investors to lose out on stupid investments. UK has taken the other path, of offering to make good everyone's losses, and to guarantee future gains to new investors. Nationalise the banks, offer government backed deposits to new pyramid recruits, lend directly to new entrants, devalue the currency. They have greatly increased the deposit base,  and given it practically infinite government investment, in that there is now effectively no limit on government and taxpayer liability for private mortgage debt. It's hard to see any outcome other than state failure. This is probably why the EU is pushing for accelerated Brexit. 

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10 minutes ago, ingermany said:

When Albania had its pyramid selling fiasco their government had a choice of either allowing investors to lose their money or of printing money to repay the losers.  They chose to allow investors to lose out on stupid investments. UK has taken the other path, of offering to make good everyone's losses, and to guarantee future gains to new investors. Nationalise the banks, offer government backed deposits to new pyramid recruits, lend directly to new entrants, devalue the currency. They have greatly increased the deposit base,  and given it practically infinite government investment, in that there is now effectively no limit on government and taxpayer liability for private mortgage debt. It's hard to see any outcome other than state failure. This is probably why the EU is pushing for accelerated Brexit. 

I tweeted that....just about sums up how it looks to me.

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2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

"In 2016 one in 506 adults became insolvent."

 

Does not compute.

The others just don't know it yet.

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21 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Lowerest IRs since...forever.

I calculated my average weighted net rate on my entire  cash portfolio yesterday and it came out at 1.6%. Saved by a few unexpired fixes, I think Virgin at 3.0% and a few at 2.5% were the highest and NS and I  tranches at 2.55% (RPI + 0.05%). Those I have renewed this year, Coventry at 0.85% and Halifax (yesterday) at 0.65% sort of shows how dire the current state of play is.

Tbh it is the first time since 2007 that the yield has fallen below inflation, so a decade of winning. However, if these sub 1% offerings become the norm, even on fixes, then I suspect savers might well throw in the towel. I can see the FTSE 100 being a recipient of flight, you still have to weigh up the risk of a ball crunching valauation of  35 times earnings and some companies being technically insolvent by billions in pension deficit. But i guess it is lala land time, what the f&&k does it matter. 0% on cash or 100 years profits to have a share in a company, who knows anymore.

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18 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

Tbh it is the first time since 2007 that the yield has fallen below inflation, so a decade of winning.

I'm with you on this.  

At lot of my 3/5 year fixed will drop out soon, been making 2-3% above inflation for 5 years, so that makes me a BIG winner. I'll fix them again and loose a bit.

I am hoping something gives before a lot of these expire.

P.S. I've made more on stock market since Eu Ref with a small sum than ALL of my savings put together at 0.25% so I see why people are tempted to go all in or buy a BTL.  You can;t loose...well the spivs in London living off the back of it can't loose.

London, is destroying the UK.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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