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I'm friend with a colleague at work and his houses only ever go up in price mentality really shocks me. Dispite being an intereligent person he refuses to believe house prices will ever drop. When I showed him everdence that prices in PML have already dropped and again examples of flats selling for lower prices than a year earlier he just gets aggresive, defensive and smerks like I'm a bit mental. To quote 'so what you think all thoses foreign investors in London are stupid' ;-S

In the mainsteam is it seems like your a conspiracy theorist nutjob to suggest house prices might fall. Was 2008 really that long ago ffs

I also have a friend who wants to buy, been gifted 10% and seems to think prices will ripple out from london to Banbury (a shit down 25 miles north of Oxford) and they will make a killing! refusing to listen to me warning that they could loose lots of money and be trapped in a dead end town sh*t box.

 

Anyone eles experiance this ?

 

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I used to try to educate people with regard to this.  People don't want a better life, a stay at home parent- to give the kids a better life etc.  They just want money. People are the sum of their life experiences and inputs, and most people appear to me at least, to be highly predictable.    I.e. sheeple.

STFU, let him get on with it, and in 18 months time he may beg for you to buy his Audi/BMW for a fraction of the price it is now  :D 

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23 hours ago, houseface2000 said:

I'm friend with a colleague at work and his houses only ever go up in price mentality really shocks me. Dispite being an intereligent person he refuses to believe house prices will ever drop. When I showed him everdence that prices in PML have already dropped and again examples of flats selling for lower prices than a year earlier he just gets aggresive, defensive and smerks like I'm a bit mental. To quote 'so what you think all thoses foreign investors in London are stupid' ;-S

He is right! Well kind of! HPI should rise at about the same as the rate of inflation over the long term (and I mean very long term, a 100 years or so!), it is when they are rising faster than this that a correction becomes more likely. When and how much? Well, that is always a shock to everyone! :P

In the mainsteam is it seems like your a conspiracy theorist nutjob to suggest house prices might fall. Was 2008 really that long ago ffs

It is surprising that property prices dropped in many areas around the world (Spain, Ireland, Detroit!) and people still can't believe that the same can happen in their own area, hence the phase 'prices have dropped but not in my area'. Prices in the SE maybe dropped by 20% at most which is why most people seem to be looking at London as being bulletproof. It is not, nothing is.

I also have a friend who wants to buy, been gifted 10% and seems to think prices will ripple out from london to Banbury (a shit down 25 miles north of Oxford) and they will make a killing! refusing to listen to me warning that they could loose lots of money and be trapped in a dead end town sh*t box.

Not knowing the area, I have no idea if he is right or not. If he is buying in an area which has had little to no HPI over the last 8 years he could be right. At worst he won't lose his shirt in a crash. You just have to let people make their own choices.

Anyone eles experiance this ?

All the time, it is the reason that I still come here! If it is not a bubble, it is doing a very good impression of one!

Edited by me!

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On 09/02/2017 at 9:46 AM, houseface2000 said:

When I showed him everdence that prices in PML have already dropped and again examples of flats selling for lower prices than a year earlier he just gets aggresive, defensive and smerks like I'm a bit mental.

Not worth ruining friendships over this. Just like Brexit, Benefits, Cycling, Religion and other divisive topics, keep it on here.

In the last year, most of my friends have FTbought. I don't agree with it and selfishly I need them to get burned so that I don't. But I'm not going to get into a discussion about it because what good is it going to do? I'm sure as shit not going to brag if prices do take a hit, although maybe I'm lucky in that my best friends don't really talk about prices which is refreshing.

At best, you'll work yourself up trying to reason with someone whose beliefs are different to yours (and in fairness, more correct given how things have played out).

At worse, you'll lose a mate.

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39 minutes ago, allornothing said:

Yes of course I experience it all the time. The vast majority of people believe in steady HPI.

What percentage of homeowners (63.5%) do you think would vote for a HPC? 

Turkeys won't vote for christmas. If a referendum was held tomorrow , on the question HPC or not, the vast majority (80%?) would vote NO. So gov policy reflects this. In the same way gov policy reflects article 50 support.

You wishing for gov policy switch is a bit like remainers hoping to avoid article 50. It's an echo chamber in here, but the majority are against you. And you live in a democracy. 

There are variations of course. eg PCL. but this was a Stamp duty tax grab on luxery properties on a tiny minority who probably can't vote anyway, but made the gov a bunch of cash in aggregate.. I don't see anything changing in the sub 500k market n the next 5 years. Do you? how? 

 

There have been surveys on this in recent years and the numbers are actually quite close. 80% is a nonsense. 

There are actually a large number of homeowners who see the issues their own kids are having and would be delighted if prices were to fall. 

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I wouldn't bring the topic up with your mates. 

If prices fall they will hate you for being a smart Alec and cashing in on their misery. If the don't you will look like a fool, best avoiding the topic all together.

I banged on about the coming crash for ages and all my mates argued with me and looked at me as if I was a nut case and then stopped arguing with me and I could tell they felt sorry for me as they had made so much money from their houses and had so much equity now.

Wasn't too bad as I had been saving hard in the background but I was wrong and would have been much better off buying years ago.

As to what happens the next few years who knows. Prime central London prices didn't impact on my area going up and I doubt they will going down. Look at your own area and react accordingly.

 

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Its kind of weird, as most people believe in infinite HPI.

However most people are also intelligent enough to know that nothing rises infinitely.

But as humans we are conditioned to believe that the environment of today is similar to the environment of yesterday - hence the hot-hand fallacy above.

So despite consciously knowing the fact we know house prices cannot rise forever - we still believe they will.

This then cushioned by the fact that people need a home and want a home of their own, so the emotional appeal is there.

This combination of belief and emotional need then overrides the conscious knowledge that endless HPI must be impossible - and so we get otherwise intelligent people across the board believing in endless HPI.

(the debasement of Fiat currency doesn't help - as this gives a moderately intellectual reason to believe in HPI as well - but like all things, that cannot go on forever)

So it all makes sense, but eventually the music has to stop.. 

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47 minutes ago, allornothing said:

 

Surveys are usually weighted to virtue signalling, hence underpolling of trump , tories and brexit. If there was a referendum tomorrow, what would your money be on?

A referendum on what ? It's a question of opinion. 

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47 minutes ago, giesahoose said:

I wouldn't bring the topic up with your mates. 

If prices fall they will hate you for being a smart Alec and cashing in on their misery. If the don't you will look like a fool, best avoiding the topic all together.

I banged on about the coming crash for ages and all my mates argued with me and looked at me as if I was a nut case and then stopped arguing with me and I could tell they felt sorry for me as they had made so much money from their houses and had so much equity now.

Wasn't too bad as I had been saving hard in the background but I was wrong and would have been much better off buying years ago.

As to what happens the next few years who knows. Prime central London prices didn't impact on my area going up and I doubt they will going down. Look at your own area and react accordingly.

 

The average price graph on the front page of HPC says otherwise.

 

The best sequence of events was in realiy:

 

2006: Buy Gold

2010: Cash out of Gold and into Stock Market

The loosers buying property ( bar some bits of london if they'd actually cashed in ) cannot dream of such gains, proably about 6x10 times.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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I've recently read a couple of Colin Dexter novels (Inspector Morse) and in at least one there are a number of mentions of a slump in prices in general, but in Oxford in particular, where the books are set. 

At one point a character said of her Oxford flat something like, 'I paid £54k for it, but it's only worth about £35k now.'  Prices are a joke by current levels but that was still a huge drop. 

Novel  was published around 1996/7 IIRC.  People have astonishingly short memories, or it's selective amnesia, or else they are too young to remember that these things did happen in the past, and not all that long ago, either. 

 

 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Mrs Bear said:

I've recently read a couple of Colin Dexter novels (Inspector Morse) and in at least one there are a number of mentions of a slump in prices in general, but in Oxford in particular, where the books are set. 

At one point a character said of her Oxford flat something like, 'I paid £54k for it, but it's only worth about £35k now.'  Prices are a joke by current levels but that was still a huge drop. 

Novel  was published around 1996/7 IIRC.  People have astonishingly short memories, or it's selective amnesia, or else they are too young to remember that these things did happen in the past, and not all that long ago, either. 

Interesting you say this as my mate said we've never seen house prices drop in our life time. I had to correct him, the 90's but we were to young to give a shit, 2008 and 2010. He went quiet, but yeah no point falling out with friends over this.

Although went for a drink last week with two closes friends and one acctually walked out after a headed HPC conversation. This topic really divides people. One has just bought the other is a HPCist. The guys who bought was getting aggressive that my other friends hadn't bought yet despite sitting on the fence with a deposit for years and was wasting agents and other peoples times by viewing etc.... 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, buckers said:

Apart from a couple of blips they've been right since the 60s, it's no surprise people generally think HPI forever. It's like the Sun rising every day, it's always happened, no reason why it won't happen tomorrow.

 

HPI forever since the 60s.

 

vague-charts2-704x449.png

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1 hour ago, giesahoose said:

I wouldn't bring the topic up with your mates. 

If prices fall they will hate you for being a smart Alec and cashing in on their misery. If the don't you will look like a fool, best avoiding the topic all together.

I banged on about the coming crash for ages and all my mates argued with me and looked at me as if I was a nut case and then stopped arguing with me and I could tell they felt sorry for me as they had made so much money from their houses and had so much equity now.

Wasn't too bad as I had been saving hard in the background but I was wrong and would have been much better off buying years ago.

As to what happens the next few years who knows. Prime central London prices didn't impact on my area going up and I doubt they will going down. Look at your own area and react accordingly.

 

If they can`t sell their house they haven`t "made" anything, in a crash buyers will just disappear. US raising rates is the biggie now, plus countries exiting the euro, wouldn`t want to be holding big debts when that happens.

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1 hour ago, Mrs Bear said:

I've recently read a couple of Colin Dexter novels (Inspector Morse) and in at least one there are a number of mentions of a slump in prices in general, but in Oxford in particular, where the books are set. 

At one point a character said of her Oxford flat something like, 'I paid £54k for it, but it's only worth about £35k now.'  Prices are a joke by current levels but that was still a huge drop. 

Novel  was published around 1996/7 IIRC.  People have astonishingly short memories, or it's selective amnesia, or else they are too young to remember that these things did happen in the past, and not all that long ago, either. 

 

 

 

 

Reading The House on Cold Hill by Peter James just now, there are so many references to the couple over-stretching to buy a country pile, and the supernatural element is basically destroying the house from inside as well, that he must be a HPC`er! The whole thing is lke an allegory for being trapped in housing debt.

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7 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

If they can`t sell their house they haven`t "made" anything, in a crash buyers will just disappear. US raising rates is the biggie now, plus countries exiting the euro, wouldn`t want to be holding big debts when that happens.

If u could go back in time 10 years and speak to a younger you would you tell him/her to rent or buy?

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Yeah, definitely not worth having HPC conversations with most people. As you say, you are viewed as a nut for even suggesting house prices could come down never mind crash. 

Definitely don't bother sharing any facts or graphs.

 

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2 hours ago, buckers said:

Apart from a couple of blips they've been right since the 60s, it's no surprise people generally think HPI forever. It's like the Sun rising every day, it's always happened, no reason why it won't happen tomorrow.

Yes.  You believe that banks haven't done much to improve their positions over the last 7 years as well.... "can't have HPC cause banks breaking."

No reason it won't stop either, and a crash.  It's happened before.

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16 minutes ago, giesahoose said:

If u could go back in time 10 years and speak to a younger you would you tell him/her to rent or buy?

Depends where in the UK they live. 

For some parts rent.

For some parts but.

For others not much in it. 

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1 hour ago, allornothing said:

A referendum on whether house price inflation should be actively support by government.

The thread is about popular opinion on HPI. So i thought it was an interesting approach to the thread topic.

 If there was a refurendum called tomorrow. yay or nay, what do people predict the result would be? 50/50?

 

 

 

Yes about evenly matched.

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3 minutes ago, ccc said:

Yes about evenly matched.

Except that if we had a referendum we would have to have a period of arguments given for and against.

It would be interesting to see how those arguing for HPI made their case without looking like totally selfish barstewards.

After decent debate and debunking the iphone=no house theory, I would think at least 20% of home owners would vote for a fall. Therefore 60/40 for lower prices. (or 90/10 if they roll out Doctor Ros and Fungus for the HPI side) 

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7 minutes ago, CunningPlan said:

Except that if we had a referendum we would have to have a period of arguments given for and against.

It would be interesting to see how those arguing for HPI made their case without looking like totally selfish barstewards.

After decent debate and debunking the iphone=no house theory, I would think at least 20% of home owners would vote for a fall. Therefore 60/40 for lower prices. (or 90/10 if they roll out Doctor Ros and Fungus for the HPI side) 

Good point. A reasoned debate would have millions in this country waking up to the scam.

I always use a very simple example of a doubling in price of your existing place - then moving into a larger place which has now also doubled in price - to show why any 'increase' on paper is usually just that. It actually costs you more money. Zero increase would leave you better off. 

Opened a fair few people's eyes to this. Every little helps. 

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