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cognitive dissonance

Bank of England policymaker Kristin Forbes on verge of voting for rate rise

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I always think they are more organised elites following the orders rather than independent thinker. Imagine the scene when rate was brought down to 0.25 I dont believe for a second that all the memebers turned up to office with their minds made up after deep thought and voted in majority to bring down the rate.

Also remember a member saying few years back that she would back the rates rise provided her vote does not tilt the final decision. If that is all the member contributes why are they even paid... If it was a real world job she would have been sacked just for that.

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I think I will look through this forward guidance.  I will believe it when it happens and I think it will happen only when the sky is falling in.

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She's not exactly taking a huge risk considering that the recent drop to 1/4% was because of Carney's mistake in claiming that the UK economy was going to be imminently destroyed.  There was hardly a ripple apart from the drop in the pound which they wanted anyway and statistically it seems to be doing ok now.  Albeit using those manipulated statistics.

Actually the destruction happened years and decades ago including a contribution from "decision" makers in recent years and the economy is performing much as such an economy would - just pretty much continuing to flatline but held up statistically by money printing and such like as real living standards continue to decline.  So any minor blips can be heralded as major leaps in recovery etc.

Edited by billybong

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5 hours ago, btd1981 said:

Crikey, somebody 'on verge' of voting to return interest rates to an emergency low that they have sat at for years. Sorry if I can't get too excited.

Any small rise in rates would make little difference to anyones finances, but it is the direction of travel that will do the most good when it finally happens. I believe that will be the turning point for the housing market.

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7 minutes ago, simon49 said:

Any small rise in rates would make little difference to anyones finances, but it is the direction of travel that will do the most good when it finally happens. I believe that will be the turning point for the housing market.

You would think so...but I suspect many people are already well under water.

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This is so confusing.  What is the point of the whole puppet show?!  

If MPC members don't really control anything, is this just some sort compromise between investment banks and the government?  I'd love to see how their decisions actually are made.  

Something along the lines:

Inv Banks: can we have zero IR?

MC to TM: we need zero IR!

TM: keep it at 0.25% but make it look like you will raise rates

MC: ok

MPC: we spent ages thinking about this and decided that 0.25% is the best but we expect the rates to rise when certain conditions will be met.  Unless we ignore our promises like we always do.

 

9 hours ago, Gush said:

I always think they are more organised elites following the orders rather than independent thinker. Imagine the scene when rate was brought down to 0.25 I dont believe for a second that all the memebers turned up to office with their minds made up after deep thought and voted in majority to bring down the rate.

Also remember a member saying few years back that she would back the rates rise provided her vote does not tilt the final decision. If that is all the member contributes why are they even paid... If it was a real world job she would have been sacked just for that.

 

9 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

It's an amazing coincidence but the MPC member who starts mentioning a rate rise is usually the one due to leave. It's like 'I can say anything now' because it doesn't matter.

Kristin Forbes is due to leave June 2017.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/Pages/people/mpc.aspx

 

 

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I don't understand - if the economy is now OK, then why don't they put interest rates back up again?

It seems like they lower interest rates when there's the slightest wobble, but never put them back up when things improve.  What will happen when there's an actual recession, or a major economic shock?

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6 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

You would think so...but I suspect many people are already well under water.

Yup, I would agree with that one.

And in Australia too, where all the powers that be have been screaming that all is perfectly fine with the Australian property market and the levels of personal debt.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-07/cracks-are-appearing-in-australia-s-trillion-dollar-debt-pile

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10 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

This is so confusing.  What is the point of the whole puppet show?!  

If MPC members don't really control anything, is this just some sort compromise between investment banks and the government?  I'd love to see how their decisions actually are made.  

Something along the lines:

Inv Banks: can we have zero IR?

MC to TM: we need zero IR!

TM: keep it at 0.25% but make it look like you will raise rates

MC: ok

MPC: we spent ages thinking about this and decided that 0.25% is the best but we expect the rates to rise when certain conditions will be met.  Unless we ignore our promises like we always do.

 

 

 

Uh-oh.... George Osbanker has just joined Black Rock!

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The argument that the Brexit vote would destabilise the market and cause interest rates to rise is premature. Even signing Article 50 wont actually cause much of a wobble. It is only once the teeth of the brexit deal have been shown that we will see if the hard/soft option will actually destabilise things...

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emergency interest rates and money printing measures...for how long now..?  8 or 9 years?  Can someone wake me up when the emergency is over...

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