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zugzwang

UK national debt >200% of GDP by 2050?

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By 2050 the UK might even be top of the league in the link below

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/germany/price-gdp-per-cap

The way things are going apart from the debt league likely it won't be top of any other league.

Then the debt taken on will just be trousered by the "elite" and the rest of the people will have to pay for it.

"Innovative".

Edited by billybong

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46 minutes ago, doomed said:

The news today is the most bearish by far I have seen since 2008. I think something is going to happen very soon.

Standard practice is a massive war. 

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Looking at that chart of public sector net debt as a % of gdp in the telegraph link they're predicting it'll be less over the next 15 years (as if) before breaking new highs and climbing to about 200/250% in 50 years time.

It's far more likely to continue climbing over the next 15 years as their politically inspired predictions continue to fail and to end up nearer 300/350% in 50 years time.

That's if public sector debt at those levels for an economy like the UK's economy is at all sustainable to start with.

The idea that taking on more migration results in less borrowing seems to be based on the idea that the migration will be mainly highly skilled people.  One has to question how likely that is based on past performance over recent years.

One looks forward to their chart showing the range of predictions as the UK increasingly grinds to a halt and becomes ever more congested and gridlocked depending on the UK's population.  Of course then UK politicians can brag to their overseas counterparts how successful their UK economy is, just look at the congestion.

 

Edited by billybong

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7 hours ago, Little Frank said:

Simply the natural consequence of the reality of an ageing population (all else equal)

Ridiculous to compare it to, say, 1950

 

You are Paul Hodges and I claim my fiver.

2050.......................if they're lucky.Could well be a lot sooner particularly if they took imputed retns out of GDP.

Edited by Sancho Panza

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14 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

You are Paul Hodges and I claim my fiver.

2050.......................if they're lucky.Could well be a lot sooner particularly if they took imputed retns out of GDP.

No idea who he is sorry.

Reinhart/Rogoff were debunked long ago. 

Sovereign debt doesn't matter much, look at Japan.

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23 hours ago, billybong said:

By 2050 the UK might even be top of the league in the link below

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/germany/price-gdp-per-cap

The way things are going apart from the debt league likely it won't be top of any other league.

Then the debt taken on will just be trousered by the "elite" and the rest of the people will have to pay for it.

"Innovative".

Excellent find billybong.  The chart says a lot - UK up there in the effective poverty stakes with Ukraine Russia and Serbia.  The term "effective poverty" meaning how much we are slaves (i.e. conned) for extortionate  mortgages/rents, with less to spend on anything else. And the finance muppets keep saying how the UK is doing so well ....

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37 minutes ago, Little Frank said:

No idea who he is sorry.

Reinhart/Rogoff were debunked long ago. 

Sovereign debt doesn't matter much, look at Japan.

The Japanese economy's been propped up by China and the US for the past two decades. Not for much longer.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-02-08/china-s-currency-policy-approaches-breaking-point

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1 hour ago, Little Frank said:

No idea who he is sorry.

Reinhart/Rogoff were debunked long ago. 

Sovereign debt doesn't matter much, look at Japan.

No. Its still true - once debt gets around 90-100% of GDP grwoth falls off.

They were qeustion over their cr.p Exel spreadsheet - shocking that youd used Excel fro somehting rather than a proper stats model.

 

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21 minutes ago, thewig said:

Could one argue that GDP is 100% DEBT anyway? given all money is created as DEBTmoney with interest?

 

Not really. You're failing to account for the fact that debt is being continuously retired at the same time as it is being created.

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21 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Not really. You're failing to account for the fact that debt is being continuously retired at the same time as it is being created.

OK. retired as in repaid? but it can never be repaid right? DEBTmoney issued at interest ensures continual expansion of the DEBTmoney supply no? I'm not clued up with the detail clearly but I think the general premise is sound, the DEBT can never be repaid under the current system right? Its actually impossible. So by default, money in its current form cannot exist without DEBT. Therefore GDP which is a measure of money generation is effectively a measure of DEBT generation. What am I missing here?

 

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1 hour ago, spyguy said:

No. Its still true - once debt gets around 90-100% of GDP grwoth falls off.

They were qeustion over their cr.p Exel spreadsheet - shocking that youd used Excel fro somehting rather than a proper stats model.

 

why would you not be able to build a robust stats model using excel? (genuine question)

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Just now, doomed said:

why would you not be able to build a robust stats model using excel? (genuine question)

Excel mixes code and data.

Its hard to test excel code - its there, mixed in with the data.

Once you get beyond a certain size, most spreadsheets turn into a mess.

The garbage just creeps up as the spreadsheet gets bigger.

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/01/17/1342082/a-tempest-in-a-spreadsheet/

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On 07/02/2017 at 11:05 AM, billybong said:

By 2050 the UK might even be top of the league in the link below

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/germany/price-gdp-per-cap

The way things are going apart from the debt league likely it won't be top of any other league.

Then the debt taken on will just be trousered by the "elite" and the rest of the people will have to pay for it.

"Innovative".

That website says UK GDP per capita 49k us$  .... sounds 'bout right

The table linked says UK price of "typical upscale housing" 100m2 flat is 72x GDP per capita = 3.5 M US$

 

Since they're talking about whole UK on the one figure, that should be an median-mean-whatever for whole UK.

Seems to me they're confused.

 

Or maybe the folk compiling that couldn't afford to look further than Chelsea and Notting Hill?

Wonder what the Chelsea and Notting Hill GDP per capita is?

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these predication out to 2050 are just nonsense...imagine similar 'experts' making predictions in the mid 1980s...

Between now and 2050 we will have wars, natural disasters, political crises, unpredictable social changes etc etc.

On ‎07‎/‎02‎/‎2017 at 11:05 AM, billybong said:

By 2050 the UK might even be top of the league in the link below

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/germany/price-gdp-per-cap

The way things are going apart from the debt league likely it won't be top of any other league.

Then the debt taken on will just be trousered by the "elite" and the rest of the people will have to pay for it.

"Innovative".

I see we are rubbing shoulders with Europe's most corrupt countries...

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9 hours ago, ebull said:

That website says UK GDP per capita 49k us$  .... sounds 'bout right

The table linked says UK price of "typical upscale housing" 100m2 flat is 72x GDP per capita = 3.5 M US$

 

Since they're talking about whole UK on the one figure, that should be an median-mean-whatever for whole UK.

Seems to me they're confused.

 

Or maybe the folk compiling that couldn't afford to look further than Chelsea and Notting Hill?

Wonder what the Chelsea and Notting Hill GDP per capita is?

 

There's another table from them in the link below showing the UK's prices in square metre terms being the 2nd highest in europe (just below Monaco) and about 5 times Germany's prices.

Apparently the figures are for each "premier city centre"

Quote

 

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/germany/square-meter-prices

Square metre prices, premier city centre, €.

Average per square metre (sq. m.) prices in US$/€ of 120-sq. m. apartments located in the centre of the most important city of each country, either the:

  • Administrative capital; and/or
  • Financial capital; and/or
  • The centre of the rental market

 

  •  

 

I guess in most cases areas outside of the premier city centres inside each country are reasonably proportional to the premier city centre figures so in those areas the relative league table positions would likely to be mostly the same or similar.

Edited by billybong

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12 hours ago, Gribble said:

Excellent find billybong.  The chart says a lot - UK up there in the effective poverty stakes with Ukraine Russia and Serbia.  The term "effective poverty" meaning how much we are slaves (i.e. conned) for extortionate  mortgages/rents, with less to spend on anything else. And the finance muppets keep saying how the UK is doing so well ....

Thanks Gribble.  Considering how little statistical  information there is generally available to get a picture of relative house prices (for most people) the chart is a useful comparator of the house price league relative to incomes around europe albeit for the premier city centres.  Outside of those areas I guess that the ratios are in most cases pretty proportional as well and the relative league table positions similar if not the same.

The chart below from the same website is also pretty useful for comparing actual relative prices (in square metre terms).

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/germany/square-meter-prices

Edited by billybong

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3 hours ago, spyguy said:

Excel mixes code and data.

Its hard to test excel code - its there, mixed in with the data.

Once you get beyond a certain size, most spreadsheets turn into a mess.

The garbage just creeps up as the spreadsheet gets bigger.

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/01/17/1342082/a-tempest-in-a-spreadsheet/

Paper here documenting the prevalence of gene name errors introduced by using Excel in papers published between 2005 and 2015!

Quote

Gene name errors are widespread in the scientific literature

Genome Biology201617:177

DOI: 10.1186/s13059-016-1044-7

©  The Author(s). 2016

Published: 23 August 2016

Abstract

The spreadsheet software Microsoft Excel, when used with default settings, is known to convert gene names to dates and floating-point numbers. A programmatic scan of leading genomics journals reveals that approximately one-fifth of papers with supplementary Excel gene lists contain erroneous gene name conversions.

 

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