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rantnrave

Halifax Jan '17 -0.9%

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Just now, anonguest said:

One more month like that will completely wipe out, and then some, the previous months 'whopping' rise. Easily acheivable.

I think that has just been adjusted down from 1.7% to 1.6% in the data as well?

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Trouble is, there is always spin in the report to make it not sound like a drop... e.g. "an easing of the annual price rise" so the HPI lovers will still bawk on about how prices always go up!

What do we want...AN HPC

When do we want it...NOW!

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1 minute ago, crazypabs said:

Trouble is, there is always spin in the report to make it not sound like a drop... e.g. "an easing of the annual price rise" so the HPI lovers will still bawk on about how prices always go up!

What do we want...AN HPC

When do we want it...NOW!

exactly my point, the first paragraph reads...

Quote

 

Martin Ellis, Halifax housing economist, said:

"House prices in the three months to January were 2.4% higher than in the previous quarter; marginally down on 2.5% in December. The annual rate of growth eased to 5.7% from December’s 6.5%, and is well below last March’s peak of 10.0%.

with no mention of the Monthly fall... grrrrr

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3 minutes ago, crazypabs said:

Trouble is, there is always spin in the report to make it not sound like a drop... e.g. "an easing of the annual price rise" so the HPI lovers will still bawk on about how prices always go up!

What do we want...AN HPC

When do we want it...NOW!

of course , people are reporting the 5.7% growth since last year as the headline news and its positive news of course ...

Meanwhile reports of Npower putting up prices and car insurance premiums at their highest ever average level are bad news ...

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By my reckoning/simple calculations......IF there is a similar monthly decline next month, then the annual rate of HPI will decrease to only(!) about 2% - which will be a huge drop from the 5.7% being reported for this month.

And in the following next few months, as some of last years whopping monthly rise figures fall out of the calculation, if the monthly rises remain muted or even diluted with just a few more modest monthly declines.....then de facto zero annual growth or even negative growth rate is easily possible.

Of course when that happens it will be treated by them as such an unexpected shock. <_<

Edited by anonguest

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33 minutes ago, anonguest said:

By my reckoning/simple calculations......IF there is a similar monthly decline next month, then the annual rate of HPI will decrease to only(!) about 2% - which will be a huge drop from the 5.7% being reported for this month.

And in the following next few months, as some of last years whopping monthly rise figures fall out of the calculation, if the monthly rises remain muted or even diluted with just a few more modest monthly declines.....then de facto zero annual growth or even negative growth rate is easily possible.

Of course when that happens it will be treated by them as such an unexpected shock. <_<

IIRC, one of the indices uses a rolling 15-month comparison of quarterly prices to compile its annual figure. Can't remember if it's this one or Nationwide though.

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1 hour ago, rantnrave said:

IIRC, one of the indices uses a rolling 15-month comparison of quarterly prices to compile its annual figure. Can't remember if it's this one or Nationwide though.

Halifax if memory serves so it will take while longer than you might expect for the big upward swing early last year to fall out of the data.

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2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Sounds to me like we are entering a small sales volume unstable phase.

Collapse must surely come now.

Yep very few EA boards locally compared to previous years, very little in their windows and very few recent sales in the LR data.

Annual sales turnover in the local area under <1%, the question is how much lower.

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25 minutes ago, koala_bear said:

Yep very few EA boards locally compared to previous years, very little in their windows and very few recent sales in the LR data.

Annual sales turnover in the local area under <1%, the question is how much lower.

Question is...how much lower before the bank can't lend and the service industry collapses.

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9 minutes ago, Digsby said:

Good to know the correction we all knew was going to come has finally happened:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/house-prices-fall-market-cools-correction/

Sounds like they meant the correct was to the monthly figures not that a correction has started./

 

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5 hours ago, rantnrave said:

I think that has just been adjusted down from 1.7% to 1.6% in the data as well?

to ensure this month stayed above the psychological -1% level?

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12 minutes ago, thewig said:

to ensure this month stayed above the psychological -1% level?

Excellent point.

Haven't seen a monthly fall in excess of 0.9% on any index for a very long time. Years actually. Lots more falls of 0.9% than 0.8% though.

Happy to be proved wrong on this

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19 minutes ago, thewig said:

to ensure this month stayed above the psychological -1% level?

Even with falling prices we could in fact have +ve headlines every month + monthly adjustment

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1 minute ago, Sawitcoming said:

Sorry Count, you missed one.

:lol::lol:

Quite.

 

I wonder if last months whopping figures were to do with HTB2 removal.

We might well see a HUGE correction if it were holding up the bottom of the pyramid.

 

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46 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Even with falling prices we could in fact have +ve headlines every month + monthly adjustment

I had exactly the same thought this morning. Then my mind started thinking about the spreadsheet jockeys who compile these reports being told on day one "we're not here to report figures, we're here to tell a story..."

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