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TheCountOfNowhere

How come we knew London was dropping last 12 months but MSM stayed quiet ?

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How come we knew Prime Central London was dropping last 12 months but MSM stayed quiet ?

Is it stupidity ?

Is it corruption ?

Is it a vested interest ?

Are they in the governments pockets ?

Are the in the bankers pockets ?

Are they keeping quiet for our benefit ?

 

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It's a bit of a puzzle seeing how they seem to pore over even the slightest bit of data in case it might show prices are rising to make that data headlines.

So it's not as if they have a shortage of information unlike most other people in the UK who might base their decisions on the MSM's output.

Most likely waist deep in VI and all that that implies.

On the other hand maybe at some levels they just can't join the dots and a lot of their time is spent just getting by and coping with work etc.

Edited by billybong

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10 minutes ago, buckers said:

An HPC might be welcomed by people here but it will create a serious problem for the banks - there's been a great deal of effort expended on hiding the original issues from 10 years ago but no real effort on fixing the underlying problems.

So my vote would not be simple 'stupidity' - it has to have been deliberate in some way.

That would be my view, right or wrong.

 

If right, then the logical next step is, when prices are falling, they are lying to people to get them to buy.

 

isnt that...well....fraudulent ?

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Can't be spreading bad news, thousands of people are reliant on the value of their homes to cover their pensions and care costs.....what will people live on, how will they survive into old age?....the country can't afford to cover it.;)

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The truth would cause people to become autonomous very quickly. They would suddenly hit self-protection mode. TPTB can't be having folk act outside of their system now, can they. It may show up the sham.

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The journalists only need to read the web comments on their articles to get a good clue about what's actually happening.

Not all of the comments but there's enough explaining things that would give them cause to investigate - if they wanted to.

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1 hour ago, buckers said:

An HPC might be welcomed by people here but it will create a serious problem for the banks - there's been a great deal of effort expended on hiding the original issues from 10 years ago but no real effort on fixing the underlying problems.

So my vote would not be simple 'stupidity' - it has to have been deliberate in some way.

Couldn't care less, and it isn't even true to extent you're suggesting.

Read some of crashmonitors posts where he strongly views that housing transactions been driven simply by owners exchanging bags of equity in one house for another house, in recent years.

My family and friends are not going to go anti-HPC, against these extreme houses prices, to lock in the HPI for you living in your ex-rental property, and all the other owners (and BTLers) sat on £Tillions in equity.

The authorities and banks have spent last 6 years strengthening their positions for a HPC ahead.  To cope with it.  No matter how much you deny it, and go for Project Fear to protect the HPI, with most banks able to withstand, and that's without the rebalancing effects of new lending into HPC, (good lending / safer lending / solid profits).

You think we're asleep to the reforms.  You might be.  HPC.

Quote

 

December 2014

Sterling falls by about 30%
House prices fall by 35%
Bank rate rises to 4.2%
CPI inflation peaks at 6.6%
Unemployment rises to nearly 12%
GDP falls by 3.5%
Share prices fall by 30%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30491161

 

 

Quote

 

Three Truths for Finance - speech by Mark Carney
21 September 2015
Remarks given at the Harvard Club UK Southwark Cathedral dinner, London. 

Speech

...To resist their siren calls, policymakers and market participants must bind ourselves to the mast.  That means building institutional structures that make it harder to act on the lies.
 
Over the past seven years great strides have been made.
 
Take “this time is different”.
 
To guard against future complacency, policy frameworks have been substantially overhauled. The Bank of England has been given formal responsibility to maintain financial stability and has considerable powers to promote it. In anticipation of problems, we have increased bank capital and tightened mortgage standards. We are using our monetary policy and macroprudential policy tools in concert, so that a low for long interest rate environment can promote both price and financial stability.
 
Moreover, when next time proves no different, the financial intermediaries at the core of the system will be on a substantially stronger footing.
 
Their capital requirements have already increased ten-fold and their liquid assets are up four-fold. Their trading assets are down by a third and intra-bank exposures by two-thirds. 


...Reform is improving risk transfer by untangling the complex web of derivatives and creating simple, comparable and transparent securitisations.
 
The Bank is helping to change the plumbing of markets so that they are more resilient to the failure of individual counterparties, and we are working to understand better the dynamics of market liquidity given changes to regulation, trading strategies and the rise of asset management.
 
The Bank has also overhauled the way we provide liquidity by expanding the range of collateral as well as the number and types of counterparties.  And recognising that the instability of markets may mean they occasionally seize up, the Bank now stands ready to act as a Market Maker of Last Resort.
 
And the third lie? In order to help restore trust and fairness, financial reform is re-building real markets.  Earlier this year, we published the Fair and Effective Markets Review. It identified multiple root causes of misconduct in FICC markets that contributed to an ethical drift and an abdication of responsibility.  A good start has been made in addressing these shortcomings including through changes to compensation regimes, clarifying the responsibilities of senior management and overhauling the structure of some markets to reduce opportunities for abuse.
 

 

 

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Simple confirmation bias isn't it? We're guilty too - every fall is the start of a downwards trend and every rise is a blip before the downwards trend starts.

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3 minutes ago, Digsby said:

Simple confirmation bias isn't it? We're guilty too - every fall is the start of a downwards trend and every rise is a blip before the downwards trend starts.

This

 

Markets never move in straight lines

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Just now, buckers said:

I didn't say I cared for the banks :) - but even a 'mild' 20% correction could make most banks toast IMO, especially those that have gone large since 2007.

2007 was proof that if the banks go, everything goes with them. Why do you think TPTB panicked so much?

Yet the stress tests have the main banks fine at HPC of 35% and a whole load of other economic strong disturbances. 

The BTLers have danced in and taken away much of the risk imo.   Banks got their equity in BTLs, and the BTLers can sell their own homes to make the banks whole.

Face ripping of the BTLers coming up imo.  

2007 the banks couldn't handle HPC.  That doesn't mean there has been 'no real effort' on getting the banks in far superior position for today, to cope with a HPC and other shocks.

3 hours ago, buckers said:

An HPC might be welcomed by people here but it will create a serious problem for the banks - there's been a great deal of effort expended on hiding the original issues from 10 years ago but no real effort on fixing the underlying problems.

So my vote would not be simple 'stupidity' - it has to have been deliberate in some way.

Deputy Gov BoE last year...

Quote


Sir Jon Cunliffe: The other thing that has come in increasingly over the last 15 years is not owners occupiers but buy to let. Virtually all the growth in mortgages over the last few years has come from buy to let, not owner occupier.

..Sir Jon Cunliffe: A lot of the growth that we have seen has been because this has looked to be an asset that gives relatively good return at a time when many other assets - pensions or otherwise - are not giving a good return.

- re long passage on BTL / not knowing how BTLers-landlords would react / different opinions OBR vs Council of Mortgage Lenders and others =

..Sir Jon Cunliffe: Of course, you also need to estimate whether, if a number of buy-to-let landlords with mortgages exit the market and the flow of new buy-to-let mortgages goes down because of the extra stamp duty, that means more first-time buyers coming into the market because there is a slowing in house-price growth.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Venger said:

Yet the stress tests have the main banks fine at HPC of 35% and a whole load of other economic strong disturbances. 

The BTLers have danced in and taken away much of the risk imo.   Banks got their equity in BTLs, and the BTLers can sell their own homes to make the banks whole.

Face ripping of the BTLers coming up imo.  

2007 the banks couldn't handle HPC.  That doesn't mean there has been 'no real effort' on getting the banks in far superior position for today, to cope with a HPC and other shocks.

Deputy Gov BoE last year...

 

Would that be the same Jon Cunliffe who was second permanent secretary to the Treasury under Gordon Brown in 2008?

The phrase ****/elbow comes to mind.

Sir-Jon-Cunliffe-and-Gord-010.jpg?w=620&

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Dammit.  

Apparently so.

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I think it's just straight-up denial. As Venger points out, the smart money has pushed the risk onto the dumb money. It's far too comforting for the London-centric media to think that they own a magical asset that delivers year on year, so even when the data starts turning it just gets rationalised away. Just look at the comments underneath any Guardian article and there is near unanimity that there is infinite foreign demand for London property (despite recent foreign investors getting smoked and their domestic situation changing drastically). There is also near unanimity that the falling pound will prop up property prices - but the opposite dynamic ,of a strong pound holding prices back, was apparently not an issue.

These are views held by people who think that there is a housing crisis and, at least publicly, think that lower house prices would be good - it's just deep in the psyche at this point. 

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Although the banks couldn't handle HPC at that time.

In my view they've drawn in the greed, (BTLers) and we've had to continue paying for it, whilst getting the banks better positioned.

The BTLers who have kept on doubling down, shrieking now at S24 and other measures.   They're carrying the risks, together with outright high-equity owners, where any HPC is simply and ego HPC.

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1 hour ago, Sajid the Taxmeister said:

I want people to feel fear.

Alas I fear just like Colonel Gadaffi they will maintain their sense of entitlement and moral superiority right up to the point someone bends them over and rams a steel rod up their jacksie. 

Metaphorically speaking, of course.  It's not like we've got a steel industry left to make sufficient rods.

Edited by Lambie

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Thing is I was in charge, mopping up Gordy the stnuc mess.

First, id have slammed brakes onio mortgafes. Ban it.

Then idhave forced all io mortgages to move to repayment. maybe extend the term.

The boe ukgiov have wasted the last 10 years. Made the uk worse.

Speaking as a blue collar labour type, the blair brown years disgust me. Brown has pimped everyone and their kids future.

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4 hours ago, buckers said:

An HPC might be welcomed by people here but it will create a serious problem for the banks - there's been a great deal of effort expended on hiding the original issues from 10 years ago but no real effort on fixing the underlying problems.

So my vote would not be simple 'stupidity' - it has to have been deliberate in some way.

If you believe house prices falls are good news, you won't be given the economics brief. You'll be seen as a crackpot, and maybe not employed as a journalist at all. 

It's not a conscious conspiracy, but journalists will always push the view of newspaper owners. 

Hopefully this is the right link: 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=suFzznCHjko

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To be fair, I could see that London Prices had gone down by about 10% in June, July, August time - but only by doing viewings and comparing my experiences to similar viewings earlier in the year. (which in itself was distorted due to the Stamp Duty rush)

However there is huge pressure from some Agents and some Sellers to get you to believe that prices are constantly rising - Agents across different companies all seem to parrot the same line of groupthink as if somekind of central casting, but I suppose that has just been their way of selling houses for the last 3 or 4 years irrespective of whether its real or not.

Because of this, I think you only see the reality if you are out doing viewings and seeing how things really are, and even then, there is confirmation bias to be wary of when you are of a HPC mindset.

All the data that comes out about real sale prices is trailing 3 months - so is difficult for the media or anyone else to get a real picture until later on.

In terms of cheering on HPI - well the majority (shrinking, but still the majority) do very well out of HPI, and particularly those older chaps reading the MSM, so the media will pander somewhat to it.  Not sure that is much of a conspiracy, just coming from a certain point of view. (same as much of the media is very mainsteam and right-wing orientated, that's their vantage point and so their default point of view)

This bias filters down and so people quite understandably end up believing in endless HPI - and so will likely miss the signs when it slows or comes to an end.  But that's not too uncommon in markets isn't it, people generally miss the top or bottom of a market even if they are looking for it.

Hard to spot a bubble when you live in the bubble?

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The image above of Gordon Brown reminds me of an embarassing moment I had in Boston U.S. when I got a bit drunk on a stag do and called one of the stag's friends (a financial advisor to Gordon Brown) a horrible posh ***t and made some other drunken remarks I can't remember. This was out of character for me but it was at a time when I was a student and very left wing and he was the emobdiment of everything I hated at that moment in time and it all came blurting out of my mouth in a very crass and shameful way.... but thinking about it all now I don't feel so bad. Funny how you go through remorse and then eventually admiration for your younger self!

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13 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Is it stupidity ? NO

Is it corruption ? YES

Is it a vested interest ? YES

Are they in the governments pockets ? YES

Are the in the bankers pockets ? YES

Are they keeping quiet for our benefit ? NOTHING IS FOR OUR BENEFIT

 

 

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