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Tories admit that the housing market is broken


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8 minutes ago, allornothing said:

So the tories clearly state renting is only option for many for the forseeable future. The clearest admission I've ever heard that house prices will not fall under their watch?  Seems like a pretty clear HPC killer to me?

Why so? The Tories may see an HPC coming and want to be the party of renters. After all, I could sit happy in my new 3+ year tenancy, watching the capital values of those stupid homeowners collapse all around me. May well vote Tory in thanks! :) On a more serious note, this announcement is no solution but a welcome step in the right direction

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4 minutes ago, ccc said:

Just on Peston. I was quite surprised he actually brought up the usual elephant in the room - immigration. 

Would Brexit bring down numbers easing pressure on housing ? 

Minister responds by saying immigration 'only' amounts to a small part of the demand. Then states it's about 30% .

Errrr that doesn't sound small to me. Just last year net immigration was almost 500,000. And that's the official figures.

Immigration puts huge pressure on housing in this country. 

 

The labour party handed over thousands of council properties to immigrants. Anyone know the exact number? I thought it was 250k+

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4 minutes ago, ccc said:

Just on Peston. I was quite surprised he actually brought up the usual elephant in the room - immigration. 

Would Brexit bring down numbers easing pressure on housing ? 

Minister responds by saying immigration 'only' amounts to a small part of the demand. Then states it's about 30% .

Errrr that doesn't sound small to me. Just last year net immigration was almost 500,000. And that's the official figures.

Immigration puts huge pressure on housing in this country. 

 

Yes I just watched that and thought the same, I thought the bloke was pretty good tbh . But as always it's what they do, it's encouraging though.

He did say lower rents and longer tenancy for those that want to rent and housing to buy for those that want.

It sounds to me like the message has got through, the housing speculator era could be over. In fact I would say it is.

So as an aside, where is the money going to go now?

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I've said for years that there is a fundamental problem in that rolling ASTs are used to get around the rules which should offer security of tenure for longer term renters.  The law usually works to protect the little guy from too-clever interpretation of the rules from the people/institutions with the legal nous.  For a very good example, as an employer I'm not allowed to use rolling short term contracts with my staff to get around my obligations as an employer.  No matter how watertight my legal contract of employment, no matter how much the law allows me to employ people on short term contract, if someone is employed by me for 5 years they've got 5 years worth of rights -- I can't get away with employing staff on 180 day contracts.  Quite why the law is quite so asinine when it comes to security of shelter is beyond me*.

[* well, the argument is that some tenants quite like the benefits of AST.  Great, let them take those AST benefits (whatever they are, they're not obvious) -- but give the security to the majority who would benefit from it.]

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19 minutes ago, dryrot said:

The labour party handed over thousands of council properties to immigrants. Anyone know the exact number? I thought it was 250k+

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/465815/Social_housing_lettings_in_England_2014-15.pdf

Page 15, Table 3b.

91% of social housing goes to British born citizens.

4% is EU A8 accession countries, 1% other EEA. 4% to other countries (i.e. non-EU).

As we leave the EU, the "other" will rise, the A8 + other EEA will fall.

Social_housing_lettings_in_England_2014-15_pdf.png

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30 minutes ago, ccc said:

Just on Peston. I was quite surprised he actually brought up the usual elephant in the room - immigration. 

Immigration puts huge pressure on housing in this country. 

 

Impressive how you got this on to your pet topic so quickly. Bravo.

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21 minutes ago, frederico said:

So as an aside, where is the money going to go now?

Land. 

8 minutes ago, dgul said:

For a very good example, as an employer I'm not allowed to use rolling short term contracts with my staff to get around my obligations as an employer.  No matter how watertight my legal contract of employment, no matter how much the law allows me to employ people on short term contract, if someone is employed by me for 5 years they've got 5 years worth of rights -- I can't get away with employing staff on 180 day contracts.  

Relax, those employment rights will soon be brought into line - IIRC all the "giving dirty temps holidays and sick pay" crap was forced on us by the EU. We'll be back to British non-rights for British workers faster than Farage can pose with a pint for a photocall.

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30 minutes ago, frederico said:

Yes I just watched that and thought the same, I thought the bloke was pretty good tbh . But as always it's what they do, it's encouraging though.

He did say lower rents and longer tenancy for those that want to rent and housing to buy for those that want.

It sounds to me like the message has got through, the housing speculator era could be over. In fact I would say it is.

So as an aside, where is the money going to go now?

Agree he generally sounded decent. But as you say we need to watch what they do.

Caroline Flint had a cheek having a go about land banking when she was the housing minister with exactly the same situation !!

Peston really should have brought her up on it.

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11 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

Impressive how you got this on to your pet topic so quickly. Bravo.

Pet subject ?

I have very strong feelings on the elephant in the room of so many of the UK's problems IMO.

If you have a problem with that - that's up to you. 

Immigration is one of the biggest issues facing this country. And I'm.not exactly alone in thinking that !!

It needs to be talked about.

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1 hour ago, regprentice said:

There is a clear model in the scottish private housing (tenancies) (scotland) bill.

No minimum notice for tenant to give.

No end date to lease - indefinite

No 'no fault' route for landlord to end lease (cant simply end lease at end of defined contract). Can reclaim possesion if intend to sell.

Rent control in high pressure areas.

Rent boards to reject rent increases over certain parameters (avg local rents/cpi etc)

Sadly only applies to new agreements struck after implementation later this year...however with a downward pressure on rents you would hope people would be incentivised to move and that might be their last move for the forseeable future.

 

This sounds pretty good, and a much better solution than simply allowing/incentivising longer tenancies. The real issue is that the relationship between tenant and landlord is asymmetrical in many ways. For example, the consequences for a tenant (+ family, kids in local school etc) being evicted are far greater than for a landlord when a tenant gives notice. The landlord simply needs to find another tenant. Having longer, symmetrical tenancy agreements would actually be far more restrictive as we don't have a mechanism in England for a tenant to get out of an agreement - you could literally be on the hook for rent + council tax + bills for the entire remainder of the tenancy, with no incentive for the LL to get another tenant in. This is different in other countries I have rented (e.g. Aus), where it is possible to break an agreement and the LL has an obligation to try and re-let (same price or lower than before) - but you would still be on the hook until that is done.

Better still a fixed notice period for tenants (2 months is not unreasonable) with no possibility of eviction *ever* whilst rent is being paid (barring perhaps sale of property, with proof). Obviously in this case you do need rent-controls to stop LLs using rent rises as an eviction mechanism, but no controls when the property is marketed. That seems reasonable to me.

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1 hour ago, allornothing said:

So the tories clearly state renting is only option for many for the forseeable future. The clearest admission I've ever heard that house prices will not fall under their watch?  Seems like a pretty clear HPC killer to me?

The description 'Build to Rent' rather gives the game away.

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1 hour ago, ccc said:

Just on Peston. I was quite surprised he actually brought up the usual elephant in the room - immigration. 

Would Brexit bring down numbers easing pressure on housing ? 

Minister responds by saying immigration 'only' amounts to a small part of the demand. Then states it's about 30% .

Errrr that doesn't sound small to me. Just last year net immigration was almost 500,000. And that's the official figures.

Immigration puts huge pressure on housing in this country. 

 

No its not.

The UK has an onholy trinity of tax credits bringingbover 100,k of low skilled EEers, being housed in rentals, bought with with IO mortgages. All 3 are fcking over working, tax paying Brits.

500k is Brum sized. FFS.

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8 minutes ago, ccc said:

I must be going mad I'm actually getting the feeling this bloke gives a shit. Help me !!:ph34r:

Romas probably moved in next door...

Who wouldnt? You go to any time and its like a UN of fcking doleys. Its fcking mental.

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50 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/465815/Social_housing_lettings_in_England_2014-15.pdf

Page 15, Table 3b.

91% of social housing goes to British born citizens.

4% is EU A8 accession countries, 1% other EEA. 4% to other countries (i.e. non-EU).

As we leave the EU, the "other" will rise, the A8 + other EEA will fall.

Social_housing_lettings_in_England_2014-15_pdf.png

Council housing should not go yo nin brits ffs.

Eu er are not homeless, they are in the wrong country.

Most have housing back home.

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3 minutes ago, spyguy said:

No its not.

The UK has an onholy trinity of tax credits bringingbover 100,k of low skilled EEers, being housed in rentals, bought with with IO mortgages. All 3 are fcking over working, tax paying Brits.

500k is Brum sized. FFS.

If you can handle it you may want to watch CH 5 at 1 o clock today.

It's about immigrants who come to the UK in order to get benefits to send back home to family members.

I can't face watching it. I fear if you do your TV may take a beating !!

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2 hours ago, Si1 said:

Longer tenancies makes housing a less liquid investment and higher risk. This should, all other things being equal, reduce equilibrium house prices.

Seems about right to me. :)

Good timing too, into S24.

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3 hours ago, SarahBell said:

The guardian reports it as: 
” They added that the government did not want to scare people off from renting out homes, but offer incentives to encourage best practice and isolate the worst landlords. By emphasising the rights of renters, as well as trying to boost house building, the white paper will mark a turning point for a party that since the 1980s, and the first council house sales, has promoted home ownership as a badge of success, while neglecting the interests of renters.

WTF? So if they're scared about renting them out, what else will they do with them?

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What do folks do if they are still renting when they retire, they are pretty much going  to be on housing benefit for the rest of their lives? It would be far cheaper for the tax payer if people were buying their own homes. But hey HPI forever, money printing, ruinous  national debt and a massive escalating housing benefit bill is the path of least resistance.

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From watching Sunday politics, the underlying message I got was they want more institutional investors moving into renting out properties. Not a bad idea if it leads to new stock being built for rent and longer more secure tenancies for tenants. I would much rather have a radical rethinking of council housing but this is the best we will get. 

 

 

 

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What the Govt are suggesting is NOT going to make most tenancies more secure.  The devil is in the detail.  If you listen to the Housing Minister explaining the policy to Andrew Neil on today's Daily Politics it is clear that the longer tenancies will not apply to most landlords at all.  The Minister told Neil that if someone like him had a house to rent out but might want it back in a year or so then they could.  The developers who build to rent are the ones who are going to be encouraged, not forced, to provide longer tenancies.

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1 hour ago, ccc said:

I must be going mad I'm actually getting the feeling this bloke gives a shit. Help me !!:ph34r:

Gavin Barwell represents a highly marginal London seat - Croydon central - that demographically is trending Labour all the time. All those new builds in the town centre full of renters must be eroding his vote daily.

I think he probably truly does want to help renters and tackle the scourge of buy to let - who his Tory voting home owning constituents probably hate too in terms of the way it is dragging down their neighbourhoods.

However most Tory MPs don't represent inner city marginal seats and most are buy to let landlords. So while he may personally care his party and the Chancellor won't let him do anything too radical. In the end only in London are privately renting Tories paying their own way a big share of their voters - and few of them live in enough key marginal seats to affect the general election as most live in safe Labour ones.

Like social care it's a long term problem that still doesn't affect most people. But it will all affect us one day.

Edited by MARTINX9
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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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