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Postcode Price/Volume/Inventory Charts-watching the crash in slow time.


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Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data using a 12 month moving average

Wary ye the variance due to sales volume and house type mix

 

       Peak                                Current -Nov 16          %age down

WC1H Jan 15 £565k               £436k                         -22.8%

WC1X Mar 16 £857k               £738k                          -13.9%

 

Not a lot of volume in most of the WC postcodes

 

Edited by Sancho Panza
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Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data using a 12 month moving average

Wary ye the variance due to sales volume and house type mix

 

       Peak                                Current -Nov 16          %age down

NW1 Mar 16 £1,053mn           £1,035mn                     -1.7%

NW5 Jun 16   £831k               £808k                            -2.8%

NW8 May 16  £1,673mn         £1,621mn                       -3.1%

NW3 Oct 16  £1,448mn          £1,406mn                       -2.9%

NW6 May 16 £824k                 £816k                            -1%

NW11 Aug 16 £1,008mn          £930k                             -7.7%

NW2 Nov 16   £629k                 peak

NW10 Feb 16 £561k                £537k                            -4.2%

 

 

 

 

Some signs of movement in the suburbs.

 

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  • 1 month later...

Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data using a 12 month moving average

Wary ye the variance due to sales volume and house type mix

 

      Peak                                Current                     %age down

W2 Jan 17 £1.287 mn,   Jan 17 £1.287 mn             peak

W9 Feb 16  £904k ,        Jan 17 £860k                      -4.9%

W8 Mar 16 £3.024mn     Jan 17 £2.603mn                -13.9%

W11 Dec 16 £1.976mn    Jan 17 £1.932 mn              -2.2%

W10 Mar 15 £898k         Jan 17 £863k                       -3.9%

W12 May 16 £723k         Jan 17 £713k                      -1.3%

W 14 Jan17 £1.238 mn Jan 17 £1.238 mn                 peak

W6 May 15 £945k           Jan 17 £860k                      -8.9%

W3 Mar 16 £575k            Jan17  £562k                       -2.3%

W4 Mar 16 £959k           Jan 17 £928k                     -3.2%

W5                                  Jan 17 £745                       peak

W13 Apr 16 £653k          Nov16 £652k                       peak

W7                                  Jan17 £570k                      peak

 

 

West London moving back up.

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Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data using a 12 month moving average

Wary ye the variance due to sales volume and house type mix

 

       Peak                                Current                     %age down

W1G                                       Jan 17 £2.628mn       peak

W1H Dec 15 £1.646mn          Jan17 £1.465mn       -12.2%

W1K Aug 14 £4.645mn          jan 17 £3.448mn       -25.7%

W1U Apr 16 £1.968mn           Jan 17 £1.819mn      -7.6%

W1W Mar 16 £1.467mn         Jan 17 £1.136mn       -22.5%

 

Some impressive inventory build up in a couple of these

chart(12).png

chart(13).png

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Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data using a 12 month moving average

Wary ye the variance due to sales volume and house type mix

                        Peak                          Current Jan 17               %age down

SW1P                                                    £1.719mn                     Peak

SW1V  Nov 16  £1.025mn                      £990k                           -3.4%

SW1W Jan 15 £3.082mn                       £1.859mn                       -39.7%

SW1X Aug 15 £4.499mn                        £3.809mn                     -15.3%

 

Low vol ,

chart(14).png

chart(15).png

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Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SW_postcode_area

South West London,North of the river.Price action on a 12 month MA from peak.

                           Peak                                Current Jan 17           %age down

SW3 Feb 15    £2.602mn                        £2.305mn                      -11.4%

SW7                                                        £2.957mn                     peak

SW10 Dec 14 £1.608mn                         £1.433mn                     -10.8%

SW5  Sep 15 £1.307mn                          £1.2mn                     -8.2%

SW6                                                         £1.109mn                    peak

Sure is a slow crash.

 

Edited by Sancho Panza
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Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data using a 12 month moving average

Wary ye the variance due to sales volume and house type mix

 

       Peak                                Current -Jan 17          %age down

NW1 Mar 16 £1,053mn           £1,017mn                     -3.4%

NW5 Jun 16   £831k               £800k                            -3.7%

NW8 May 16  £1,706mn         £1,642mn                       -3.75%

NW3 Jan 17  £1,473mn         

NW6 May 16 £824k                 £790k                            -4.1%

NW11 Aug 16 £1,008mn          £962k                             -4.5%

NW2 Jan17   £619k                 peak

NW10 Feb 16 £561k                £530k                            -5.5%

 

Just worked these through and the downtrends in NW postcode seem to be firming.

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Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data using a 12 month moving average

Wary ye the variance due to sales volume and house type mix

 

                          Peak                                Current Jan 17           %age down

N1 Dec 15         £807k                                   £787k                       -2.6%

N5 Nov 15         £880k                                   £723k                     -17.8%

N7 Dec 16         £576k                                   £567k                      -1.2%

N16                                                               £642k                       peak

N4                                                                 £603k                       peak

N19                                                               £643k                       peak

N15                                                               £464k                       peak

N8                                                                 £717k                       peak

N6 Apr 16      £1.355mn                               £1.258mn                 -7.2%

N2 Dec 14       £885k                                   £841k                        -5%

N10 Jan 17   £798k                                                                      peak

 

 

Strange one as most of the postcodes going down-trends have intensified,and yet postcodes going up-trends have intensified.

chart(16).png

chart(17).png

chart(18).png

chart(19).png

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25 minutes ago, anonlymouse said:

Thanks Sancho,

Would you mind running N1 (Islington), N5 (Highbury), N16 (Stoke Newington) please? Very much middle class professionals (solicitors, accountants) territory so might be a good indicator of how non-prime inner London is faring.

 

N5 getting pummeled.

 

The supply charts are stock over transactions levels.

chart(21).png

chart(22).png

chart(23).png

chart(24).png

Edited by Sancho Panza
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27 minutes ago, electrogear said:

You sir Sancho are fabulous. If you can run HU17 for me, I have a strong suspicion there's been some decent drops in the last few months.

The data is always lagging by four months and even then some completions come through afterwards.So,there may have been drops since Jan but they won't show till July/ August as we're using Land reg data for completed sales.

Unlike many house price indices,these charts are purely based on the sales for that postcode and nothing else.

Worth being aware that there's an element of skew due to the mix of sales ie more detached sales than normal

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalPropertiesSoldAndAveragePrice.html?searchLocation=hu17&sellersPriceGuide=Start+Search

Thanks for the thanks but El Pasi designed it all.

chart(25).png

chart(26).png

Edited by Sancho Panza
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  • 4 weeks later...

Hi Sancho / El Pasi - what are the datasets used to generate the graphs? Land reg price paid dataset for April was released yesterday - would that be incorporated into these yet or do they take a while to filter through?

Remind me to buy you a beer when it's all over... 

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7 hours ago, anonlymouse said:

Hi Sancho / El Pasi - what are the datasets used to generate the graphs? Land reg price paid dataset for April was released yesterday - would that be incorporated into these yet or do they take a while to filter through?

Remind me to buy you a beer when it's all over... 

It's the price paid data per postcode with a four month lag to allow the bulk of transactions to be included.If you use the April data now,there are a vast swathe of transactions that will be excluded.

The strength of the dataset is that it is literally based on all residential transactions in a postcode for a certain month.The downside is that it's not very timely and it can be massively skewed by the housing mix that transacts eg detached house sales in London.

I'll be posting the latest charts early next week when I have time.

If you have a postcode you're interested in,let me know

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  • 2 weeks later...

Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data using a 12 month moving average

Wary ye the variance due to sales volume and house type mix

 

      Peak                                Current Feb 17       %age down

W2 Jan 17 £1.287 mn,           £1.297 mn             peak

W9 Feb 16  £904k ,               £843k                      -6.7%

W8 Mar 16 £3.024mn            £2.448mn               -19%

W11 Dec 16 £1.962mn          £1.881 mn              -4.1%

W10 Mar 15 £898k                £825k                      -8.1%

W12 May 16 £723k               £703k                      -2.7%

W 14 Jan17 £1.230 mn         £1.224 mn              -0.005%

W6 May 15 £945k                 £881k                      -6.7%

W3 Mar 16 £575k                  £571k                      -0.01%

W4 Mar 16 £959k                  £924k                     -3.4%

W5  Dec 16 £746k                 £737 k                     -1.2%

W13 Apr 16 £653k                £652k                       peak

W7  Jan 17  £570k                £557k                      -2.3%

 

Virtually all W postcode sectors down in Feb

 

 

chart (3).png

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1 minute ago, Sancho Panza said:

As below.Worth noting a few strange things at the minute

1) Rightmove has stopped updating it's Maketed properties thread since Nov 16

2) As an example N5 has 213 properties for sale and yet if you include SSTC it goes up to 350.Obviously,there will be multiples in there,but however you look at it,that's 50% of the market in limbo.The relevance is that only 13 tranactions occurred in February.That's a lot of people trying squeeze through a small exit.

3) N4 was 410 to 688 using the SSTC filter.40 transactions in Feb.

4) N1 was 722 to 1058on 48 transactions

5) N15 was 144 to 255 on 11 transactions.

 

For my money,these indicate a major dislocation is ongoing.Dow theory states you can't really trust the price action if there's declining volume.

Using the raw sales data on a 12 month moving average

N1 peak was Jan 17 at £791 k.Feb 17 was £789k

N4 peak was Feb 2017 £609k

N5 peak was Nov 2015 £880k, Feb 2017 was £722k so down 17.% off peak

N15 peak was Jan 2017 £464k,Feb 2017 was £462k

chart (4).png

chart (5).png

chart (6).png

chart (7).png

Updating from the Londinium thread

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  • 1 month later...
On 08/05/2017 at 10:21 PM, Sancho Panza said:

Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data using a 12 month moving average

Wary ye the variance due to sales volume and house type mix

 

                          Peak                                Current Jan 17           %age down

N1 Dec 15         £807k                                   £787k                       -2.6%

N5 Nov 15         £880k                                   £723k                     -17.8%

N7 Dec 16         £576k                                   £567k                      -1.2%

N16                                                               £642k                       peak

N4                                                                 £603k                       peak

N19                                                               £643k                       peak

N15                                                               £464k                       peak

N8                                                                 £717k                       peak

N6 Apr 16      £1.355mn                               £1.258mn                 -7.2%

N2 Dec 14       £885k                                   £841k                        -5%

N10 Jan 17   £798k                                                                      peak

 

 

Strange one as most of the postcodes going down-trends have intensified,and yet postcodes going up-trends have intensified.

 

N postcodes ticking up.Some new peaks.

 

                          Peak                                Current Apr 17           %age down

N1 Dec 15         £807k                                   £805k                       Peak-as good as.

N5 Nov 15         £880k                                   £765k                       -13%

N7 Dec 16         £576k                                   £567k                      -0.1%

N16                                                              £661k                       peak

N4    Feb 17 £609k                                        £603k                       -1%

N19                                                               £677k                       peak

N15                                                               £469k                       peak

N8   Feb 17 £739k                                          £732k                       -0.95%

N6 Apr 16  £1.355mn                                    £1.220mn                    -9.7%

N2                                                               £896k                        peak

N10                                                             £805k                         peak

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On 05/05/2017 at 10:42 PM, Sancho Panza said:

Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SW_postcode_area

South West London,North of the river.Price action on a 12 month MA from peak.

                           Peak                                Current Jan 17           %age down

SW3 Feb 15    £2.602mn                        £2.305mn                      -11.4%

SW7                                                        £2.957mn                     peak

SW10 Dec 14 £1.608mn                         £1.433mn                     -10.8%

SW5  Sep 15 £1.307mn                          £1.2mn                     -8.2%

SW6                                                         £1.109mn                    peak

Sure is a slow crash.

 

                           Peak                                Current Apr 17           %age down

SW3 Feb 15    £2.602mn                             £2.236mn                      -14%

SW7                                                          £3.202mn                     peak

SW10 Dec 14 £1.608mn                             £1.372mn                     -14.7%

SW5  Sep 15 £1.307mn                             £1.257mn                     -3.8%

SW6                                                         £1.106mn                    peak

chart(1).png

Edited by Sancho Panza
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On 14/06/2017 at 10:31 PM, Sancho Panza said:

Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data using a 12 month moving average

Wary ye the variance due to sales volume and house type mix

 

      Peak                                Current Feb 17       %age down

W2 Jan 17 £1.287 mn,           £1.297 mn             peak

W9 Feb 16  £904k ,               £843k                      -6.7%

W8 Mar 16 £3.024mn            £2.448mn               -19%

W11 Dec 16 £1.962mn          £1.881 mn              -4.1%

W10 Mar 15 £898k                £825k                      -8.1%

W12 May 16 £723k               £703k                      -2.7%

W 14 Jan17 £1.230 mn         £1.224 mn              -0.005%

W6 May 15 £945k                 £881k                      -6.7%

W3 Mar 16 £575k                  £571k                      -0.01%

W4 Mar 16 £959k                  £924k                     -3.4%

W5  Dec 16 £746k                 £737 k                     -1.2%

W13 Apr 16 £653k                £652k                       peak

W7  Jan 17  £570k                £557k                      -2.3%

 

 

 

 

      Peak                                Current Apr 17       %age down

W2                                        £1.327 mn             peak

W9 Feb 16  £904k ,               £873k                      -3.4%

W8 Mar 16 £3.024mn            £2.440mn               -19.3%

W11 Dec 16 £1.962mn          £1.955 mn              -3.5%

W10 Mar 15 £898k                £856k                      -4.7%

W12 May 16 £723k               £717k                      -0.8%

W 14 Dec 16 £1.221 mn       £1.181 mn                -3.3%

W6 May 15 £945k                 £877k                      -7.2%

W3                                       £577k                      peak

W4                                      £965k                     peak

W5  Dec 16 £746k                 £728 k                     -2.4%

W13                                     £668k                       peak

W7  Jan 17  £570k                £561k                      -2.3%

chart.png

Edited by Sancho Panza
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