Sancho Panza Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 (edited) Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SW_postcode_area South West London.Price action on a 12 month MA from peak. SW1PLONDONtriangular area between Victoria Station, the Houses of Parliament, and Vauxhall BridgeWestminster SW1VLONDONtriangular area between Vauxhall Bridge, Chelsea Bridge, and Victoria Station; Pimlico properWestminster SW1WLONDONBelgravia, Chelsea (part), area between Sloane Square and Victoria Station, south of Kings RoadKensington and Chelsea, Westminster SW1XLONDONBelgravia, north of Eaton Square, Knightsbridge (part), Chelsea (part)Kensington and Chelsea, Westminster Peak Current %age down SW1P June 15 £1.366mn £1.311mn -4% SW1V £1.025mn peak SW1W Jan 15 £3.082mn £2.04mn -33.8% SW1X Aug 15 £4.499mn £3.443mn -25.4% Edited February 10, 2017 by Sancho Panza Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 (edited) Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SW_postcode_area South West London,North of the river.Price action on a 12 month MA from peak. Peak Current %age down SW3 Feb 15 £2.602mn £2.14mn -17.7% SW7 £2.885mn peak SW10 Dec 14 £1.608mn £1.334mn -17% SW5 Sep 15 £1.307mn £1.169mn -10% SW6 £1.112mn peak Edited February 10, 2017 by Sancho Panza Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 (edited) Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data.Postcodes working out from the centre. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N_postcode_area North London.Price action on a 12 month MA from peak. Peak Current %age down N1 Dec 15 £807k Oct 16 £779k -3.4% N5 Nov 15 £880k £766k -12.9% N7 Mar 16 £574k £562k -2.1% N16 £632k peak N4 £597k peak N19 £629k peak N15 £454k peak N8 £704k peak N6 Apr 16 £1.359mn £1.302mn -4.2% Amazing to see the differences with W and SW postcodes. Edited February 10, 2017 by Sancho Panza Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 (edited) On 14/02/2017 at 7:14 AM, Toast said: I know this is asking a lot, but would it be possible to gradually gather data for a transect out from central London? I have some doubts how quickly - or indeed whether - the collapse of central London is radiating outwards, and I've seen comments on other threads to the same effect. A possible transect out northwards (as an example) from PCL, with pairs of postcodes to give some indication of robustness of trends, might be: N1C and N1 N7 and N5 N19 and N4 N8 and N15 N22 and N17 N13 and N18 N21 and N9 Since you have the tools, it would be fantastic to dissect this beast systematically. Toast,this was a post from a few days back.It seems clear that areas of SW and W postcodes are dropping but the falls are starting to ripple out a little bit to the more centric areas of the N postcode.This is jsut the price action as it saves me posting shedloads of charts and I will update this monthly with the new data.Where a pattern was a emerging ie outer postcodes are at peak prices I stopped.There's a map in the Wiki link that I used to put the postcodes in order radiating outwards. 'Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data.Postcodes working out from the centre. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N_postcode_area North London.Price action on a 12 month MA from peak. Peak Current %age down N1 Dec 15 £807k Oct 16 £779k -3.4% N5 Nov 15 £880k £766k -12.9% N7 Mar 16 £574k £562k -2.1% N16 £632k peak N4 £597k peak N19 £629k peak N15 £454k peak N8 £704k peak N6 Apr 16 £1.359mn £1.302mn -4.2%' On 14/02/2017 at 7:55 AM, Conquistador said: Yup. EX3 is Topsham, one of the most expensive parts of Devon and full of wealthy retirees. Would be interesting to see data for Salcombe (TQ8), which is even more exclusive and rammed with million pound second homes. Fascinating TQ8 peaked in Oct 2014 on a 12 month MA at £708k,Oct 16 was £551k................................................... Edited February 15, 2017 by Sancho Panza Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 There are uplifts in inventory levels in N1 due to both rising stock and lower transactions but the latter are only down 25% yoy and stock up circa 25% They're patterns also seen in N5,N7,N16 ie inner postcodes but less marked. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalAvailableListingsAndNew.html?searchLocation=n1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toast Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 On 10/02/2017 at 11:14 PM, Sancho Panza said: North London.Price action on a 12 month MA from peak. Thank you SP - that's pretty much what I hoped to see: that price falls are just starting to leak out from the centre, and surplus inventory is perhaps getting a little further out (comparing the substantial increase in months of supply to the paltry price falls in N5). The summaries of price falls from peak are really clear. It would be great to have a summary statistic for the supply side too (which may be a leading indicator), like percentage rise from the last trough - but I think the data are too noisy for that to be meaningful. Anyway, thank you again: this solid data is hopeful ... but keeps me grounded in reality, rather than tilting at windmills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 3 hours ago, Toast said: Thank you SP - that's pretty much what I hoped to see: that price falls are just starting to leak out from the centre, and surplus inventory is perhaps getting a little further out (comparing the substantial increase in months of supply to the paltry price falls in N5). The summaries of price falls from peak are really clear. It would be great to have a summary statistic for the supply side too (which may be a leading indicator), like percentage rise from the last trough - but I think the data are too noisy for that to be meaningful. Anyway, thank you again: this solid data is hopeful ... but keeps me grounded in reality, rather than tilting at windmills. The new data will be out in the first week of March.As soon as I have time,I'll update the tables I've done this time for N,SW,W and NW. I thought the data for N showed graphically how those initial falls appear to be spreading out. I agree on the inventory starting to move up.That's the key to future falls. Next month Ill do tables for the inventory levels if I can work out a way of distinguishing a turning point that provides some perspective. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lavalas Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Hello Thank you for your efforts on this. Before you get tired of being asked I wondered if I could see LS7 and LS17? Two neighbouring yet fairly contrasting postcodes in Leeds. Cheers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 34 minutes ago, Lavalas said: Hello Thank you for your efforts on this. Before you get tired of being asked I wondered if I could see LS7 and LS17? Two neighbouring yet fairly contrasting postcodes in Leeds. Cheers. I don't mind being asked at all. Interesting that LS 17 has gone virtually nowhere over ten years up from £274k peak in 2007 to £294k in 2017 LS7 has gone up from £173k peak in 2008 to £185k in Oct 16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lavalas Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Thank you very much! That's really useful. Not been monitoring them for very long so the history is insightful. Certainly a different picture to the London postcodes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patient London FTB Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 7 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said: I don't mind being asked at all. In light of the news that Bedford has been the capital of Help To Buy equity loans between April 2013 and April 2016, would be interesting to see MK40, MK41 and/or MK42 (I don't know Bedford so don't know which one is best to choose). Bedford got 1,268 HTB loans at an average £49,617 each. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, Patient London FTB said: In light of the news that Bedford has been the capital of Help To Buy equity loans between April 2013 and April 2016, would be interesting to see MK40, MK41 and/or MK42 (I don't know Bedford so don't know which one is best to choose). Bedford got 1,268 HTB loans at an average £49,617 each. MK40 peak was £262k Sept 2015 .Oct 16 £255k MK41 peak Oct 16 MK42 peak Oct 16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patient London FTB Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said: MK40 peak was £262k Sept 2015 .Oct 16 £255k MK41 peak Oct 16 MK42 peak Oct 16 Thanks SP Seems like you could argue the launch of HTB in 2013 did a number on prices in MK41 and MK42, but not so MK40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 13 minutes ago, Lavalas said: Thank you very much! That's really useful. Not been monitoring them for very long so the history is insightful. Certainly a different picture to the London postcodes. Yeah it can be quite stark when you see it in black and white and away from the various indices that misrepresent the cost of housing. Despite HPI of 7 per cent per annum for ten years there are whole postcode sectors of the UK that haven't risen more than 10% over ten years. Elpasi's programme shows it quite clearly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, Patient London FTB said: Thanks SP Seems like you could argue the launch of HTB in 2013 did a number on prices in MK41 and MK42, but not so MK40 There's also clearly an inventory squeeze which could drive prices higher in the short term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 On 10/02/2017 at 9:53 PM, Sancho Panza said: Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data using a 12 month moving average https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W_postcode_area W2,W9,W10,W11,W8,W12,W14,W6,W3,W4,W5,W13,W7 Just going through the charts on West London.Price action on a 12 month MA from peak. Working out from centre. Peak Current %age down W2 April 15 £1.253 mn, Oct 16 £1.220 mn -2.6% W9 Feb 16 £904k , Oct 16 £884k -2.2% W8 Mar 16 £3.024mn Oct 16 £2.651mn -12.3% W11 Oct 16 £1.913 mn peak W10 Mar 15 £898k Oct 16 £838k -6.7% W12 May 16 £723k Oct 16 £705k -2.8% W 14 Mar 15 £1.219 mn Oct 16 £1.145 mn -6% W6 May 15 £945k Oct 16 £864k -8.6% W3 Oct 16 £574k peak W4 Mar 16 £964k Oct 16 £906k -6% W5 Oct 16 £713 peak W13 Apr 16 £653k Oct 16 £630k -3.5% W7 Oct 16 £543k peak Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data using a 12 month moving average Wary ye the variance due to sales volume and house type mix Peak Current %age down W2 April 15 £1.253 mn, Nov 16 £1.233 mn -1.6% W9 Feb 16 £904k , Nov 16 £888k -1.8% W8 Mar 16 £3.024mn Nov 16 £2.595mn -14.2% W11 Oct 16 £1.916mn Nov 16 £1.864 mn -2.7% W10 Mar 15 £898k Nov 16 £834k -7.1% W12 May 16 £723k Nov 16 £705k -2.8% W 14 Mar 15 £1.219 mn Nov 16 £1.091 mn -10.5% W6 May 15 £945k Nov 16 £832k -11.8% W3 Nov 16 £574k peak W4 Mar 16 £964k Nov 16 £906k -6% W5 Nov 16 £720 peak W13 Apr 16 £653k Nov16 £638k -2.3% W7 Oct 16 £557k peak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 These seem to be the big movers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SavingBear Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Could you please do IP6 IP7 IP8 & IP14 or if thats to many just IP7 please It would be greatly appriciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 (edited) On 10/02/2017 at 10:22 PM, Sancho Panza said: W1GLONDONHarley StreetWestminster W1HLONDONMaryleboneWestminster W1KLONDONMayfair (north), Grosvenor SquareWestminster W1ULONDONMaryleboneWestminster W1WLONDONGreat Portland Street, FitzroviaWestminster Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W_postcode_area Just going through the charts on West London.Price action on a 12 month MA from peak.Avoiding the postcodes with extremely erratic vol. Peak Current %age down W1G June 16 £2.6mn Oct 16 £2.522mn -3% W1H Dec 15 £1.646mn Oct 16 £1.346mn -18% W1K Aug 14 £4.645mn Oct 16 £4,155mn -8% W1U Apr 16 £1.968mn Oct 16 £1.824mn -7.3% W1W Mar 16 £1.467mn Oct 16 £1.185mn -19% Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data using a 12 month moving average Wary ye the variance due to sales volume and house type mix Peak Current %age down W1G June 16 £2.6mn Nov 16 £2.514mn -3% W1H Dec 15 £1.646mn Nov 16 £1.326mn -19.4% W1K Aug 14 £4.645mn Nov 16 £3.420mn -26.4% W1U Apr 16 £1.968mn Nov16 £1.865mn -10.3% W1W Mar 16 £1.467mn Nov 16 £1.187mn -19% Edited March 7, 2017 by Sancho Panza Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, SavingBear said: Could you please do IP6 IP7 IP8 & IP14 or if thats to many just IP7 please It would be greatly appriciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SavingBear Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 thankyou very much :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, SavingBear said: thankyou very much :-) It's a pleasure.Hope they're of some use. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 (edited) On 10/02/2017 at 10:43 PM, Sancho Panza said: Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SW_postcode_area South West London.Price action on a 12 month MA from peak. SW1PLONDONtriangular area between Victoria Station, the Houses of Parliament, and Vauxhall BridgeWestminster SW1VLONDONtriangular area between Vauxhall Bridge, Chelsea Bridge, and Victoria Station; Pimlico properWestminster SW1WLONDONBelgravia, Chelsea (part), area between Sloane Square and Victoria Station, south of Kings RoadKensington and Chelsea, Westminster SW1XLONDONBelgravia, north of Eaton Square, Knightsbridge (part), Chelsea (part)Kensington and Chelsea, Westminster Peak Current %age down SW1P June 15 £1.366mn £1.311mn -4% SW1V £1.025mn peak SW1W Jan 15 £3.082mn £2.04mn -33.8% SW1X Aug 15 £4.499mn £3.443mn -25.4% Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data using a 12 month moving average Wary ye the variance due to sales volume and house type mix Peak Current Nov 16 %age down SW1P £1.521mn Peak SW1V £1.025mn peak SW1W Jan 15 £3.082mn £1.96mn -36.4% SW1X Aug 15 £4.499mn £3.221mn -28.4% Edit to add the SW1P figure from Oct looks wrong,I may have mislabelled it back then. Edited March 8, 2017 by Sancho Panza Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 On 10/02/2017 at 11:14 PM, Sancho Panza said: Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data.Postcodes working out from the centre. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N_postcode_area North London.Price action on a 12 month MA from peak. Peak Current %age down N1 Dec 15 £807k Oct 16 £779k -3.4% N5 Nov 15 £880k £766k -12.9% N7 Mar 16 £574k £562k -2.1% N16 £632k peak N4 £597k peak N19 £629k peak N15 £454k peak N8 £704k peak N6 Apr 16 £1.359mn £1.302mn -4.2% Amazing to see the differences with W and SW postcodes. Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data using a 12 month moving average Wary ye the variance due to sales volume and house type mix Peak Current Nov 16 %age down N1 Dec 15 £807k £786k -2.6% N5 Nov 15 £880k £736k -16.4% N7 Mar 16 £574k £564k -1.7% N16 £637k peak N4 £598k peak N19 £635k peak N15 £457k peak N8 £705k peak N6 Apr 16 £1.359mn £1.285mn -5.4% N2 Dec 14 £885k £784k -11.4% N10 Aug 16 £793k £772k -2.7% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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