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Sancho Panza

Postcode Price/Volume/Inventory Charts-watching the crash in slow time.

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Following a recent thread on postcode inventory/transaction rates,a member -Elpasi- got in touch and designed some sort of code that enables you to create charts with moving averages to smooth monthly volatility .Unfortunately,I have to put up shelves for the little one tonight but I shall post many more over the next few years hopefully.

I'll start with my favourite.SW3-poster boy for the bubble and poster boy for the crash,whenever it comes.It looks to have turned mid 2014.

Months supply is worked out by inventory/transactions

Average price is a moving average-normally 6 months-of sales data.

All charts come with a raw data warning.The only smoothing is with moving averages.

SW3 Sept 16 MS 6MMA.png

SW3 Price Chart 6MMA.png

Edited by Sancho Panza

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Still an unwinding of this ripple further north though, inventories almost zero and sold strike rate at 75% in one case. Which is why I don't believe we will see national declines this year in prices. I actually think we muight get something pretty big on Haliwide for January.

We visited a friend in Netherfield, Gedling, Nottingham. First thing I noticed was the sea of red sold signs on every street. Noticiable to me at any rate, because the market thirty miles north in the Peak district still feels as dead as a door nail.

 

Now this is an area where you coundn't sell a house for love nor money since about 2004 and typically you would have a sold strike rate of a little as 10%.
Anyway checking  the stats, population 10,000, former working class mining village on the east of Nottingham. Homes on rightmove 44 of which 33 sold, leaving 11 properties in the entire area. Prices are still rock bottom, highest listing is £175,000, but those sort of stats are going to lead to some price pressures eventually.

Maybe Netherfield has just hit the crest of a dying tsunami fanning out from London and is unusual. As I said all calm thirty miles further north, no signs of a boom at all.

Would be intersting to hear if similar ripple effects have spread out from the Home Counties elsewhere at a similar distance, eg. Gloucestershire, Norfolk etc.

 

 

Edited by crashmonitor

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Excellent work - definitely some post-peak downward trends to be seen; with SW3 prices losing around 25-30% in around 2yrs. That's what we like to see - looks like there are similar trends brewing in other areas of the city, and hopefully this will radiate outwards over time (although it looks like the Leicester bubble still has some legs left yet).

Might I enquire as to where you / Elpasi are sourcing this info? I knocked up a spreadsheet of similar info about my locality at the weekend (which is showing some small but potentially promising trends in inventory/sales) however using Rightmove as the source only gets me inventory data for the past two years; when ideally I'd like to go further back.

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1 hour ago, crashmonitor said:

Still an unwinding of this ripple further north though, inventories almost zero and sold strike rate at 75% in one case. Which is why I don't believe we will see national declines this year in prices. I actually think we muight get something pretty big on Haliwide for January.

We visited a friend in Netherfield, Gedling, Nottingham. First thing I noticed was the sea of red sold signs on every street. Noticiable to me at any rate, because the market thirty miles north in the Peak district still feels as dead as a door nail.

 

Now this is an area where you coundn't sell a house for love nor money since about 2004 and typically you would have a sold strike rate of a little as 10%.
Anyway checking  the stats, population 10,000, former working class mining village on the east of Nottingham. Homes on rightmove 44 of which 33 sold, leaving 11 properties in the entire area. Prices are still rock bottom, highest listing is £175,000, but those sort of stats are going to lead to some price pressures eventually.

Maybe Netherfield has just hit the crest of a dying tsunami fanning out from London and is unusual. As I said all calm thirty miles further north, no signs of a boom at all.

Would be intersting to hear if similar ripple effects have spread out from the Home Counties elsewhere at a similar distance, eg. Gloucestershire, Norfolk etc.

 

 

Yes there is not much for sale and some branches of estate agents have closed.

The branch of W H Brown on Unthank road has more card holders than house detail cards in the window.

When you speak to them "its a buoyant market" but the odd one gives it like it is.

To me as soon as two properties appear near to each other the price comes under immediate pressure as not many buyers...but there are also less properties for actual sale so anything nice still goes for a high price giving false hope.

This must be pushing up the averages and smacks of the end of the bubble road (unless another bout of stimulus).

 

 

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2 hours ago, Fromage Frais said:

Yes there is not much for sale and some branches of estate agents have closed.

The branch of W H Brown on Unthank road has more card holders than house detail cards in the window.

When you speak to them "its a buoyant market" but the odd one gives it like it is.

To me as soon as two properties appear near to each other the price comes under immediate pressure as not many buyers...but there are also less properties for actual sale so anything nice still goes for a high price giving false hope.

This must be pushing up the averages and smacks of the end of the bubble road (unless another bout of stimulus).

 

 

That fits in with what I am thinking, just checked that is Norwich. 

Draw a 100 mile arc from the centre of London to places like Norwich, South Notts and Gloucester and you have a feed through from the insanity further  towards London like Cambridge and Oxford.

How far this ripple keeps going I really haven't a clue. Definitely not reached my area yet.

So we will be talking at cross purposes on here, folk near to London seeing an implosion and those within a narrow band ( about 100 miles from London) seeing properties for sale thin on the ground and prices lifting.

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4 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

Now this is an area where you coundn't sell a house for love nor money since about 2004 and typically you would have a sold strike rate of a little as 10%.

 

I've also kept an eye on the "sold" percentage.

What I'm wondering now though is if new building is perhaps keeping it down. For example using the RM filters, if I take out 'new home' and 'shared equity' the supply drops by 25% 400 to 300. Including them the "sold" is 20% but 30% if taking them out. So less supply of more desirable (to me) non new builds. Only 4% sold of new homes/shared equity.

Though you could argue supply (inc new builds) is actually much larger than it looks. One new build advert could be the front, for the sale of lots of houses on one new estate.

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1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

I've also kept an eye on the "sold" percentage.

What I'm wondering now though is if new building is perhaps keeping it down. For example using the RM filters, if I take out 'new home' and 'shared equity' the supply drops by 25% 400 to 300. Including them the "sold" is 20% but 30% if taking them out. So less supply of more desirable (to me) non new builds. Only 4% sold of new homes/shared equity.

Though you could argue supply (inc new builds) is actually much larger than it looks. One new build advert could be the front, for the sale of lots of houses on one new estate.

Seems to be the same pattern in my area, but only 19 new homes of which only 2 sold, so not making much difference to the overall percentage.

248/338 or 27% overall sold...231/ 319 once you exclude new homes or 28%.

But the stats similar to your area. Steady but not as  hot as a few miles further south.

My earlier comment about the Market being as dead as a door nail probably an exaggeration but watching the N Midlands market these past few years has been about as exciting as watching paint dry.

Edited by crashmonitor

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17 hours ago, Kiwi_Muncher said:

Great stuff... Cambridge would be good to see as it's a poster child of HPI forever.

CB2 has seemingly rolled over.

Ave sale price down from July 16 £645k to  Sep 16 £615k

Big bump in inventory

CB2 Sept 16 MS 6 MMA.png

CB2 Sept 16 PC 12 MMA.png

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57 minutes ago, Kiwi_Muncher said:

Fab... Sw8 should be a peach... If you have time :)

SW8 is a strange one given the scale of development there.Seems to have topped out July 14-Jan 15

Some decent inventory build up there too.

 

SW8 Sept 16 MS 6 MMA.png

SW8 Sept 16 PC 12 MMA.png

Edited by Sancho Panza

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4 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said:

SW8 is a strange one given the scale of development there.Seems to have topped out July 14-Jan 15

Some decent inventory build up there too.

CB2 Sept 16 MS 6 MMA.png

CB2 Sept 16 PC 12 MMA.png

Are they cb2 graphs?

 

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9 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

Still an unwinding of this ripple further north though, inventories almost zero and sold strike rate at 75% in one case. Which is why I don't believe we will see national declines this year in prices. I actually think we muight get something pretty big on Haliwide for January.

We visited a friend in Netherfield, Gedling, Nottingham. First thing I noticed was the sea of red sold signs on every street. Noticiable to me at any rate, because the market thirty miles north in the Peak district still feels as dead as a door nail.

Maybe Netherfield has just hit the crest of a dying tsunami fanning out from London and is unusual. As I said all calm thirty miles further north, no signs of a boom at all.

 

 

NG4

 

NG4 Seot 16 MS 6 MMA.png

NG4 Sept 16 PC 12 MMA.png

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How do I get the code and use it? would be interested in charting south manchester areas, bubblicious it is.

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7 hours ago, ftb_fml said:

Excellent work - definitely some post-peak downward trends to be seen; with SW3 prices losing around 25-30% in around 2yrs. That's what we like to see - looks like there are similar trends brewing in other areas of the city, and hopefully this will radiate outwards over time (although it looks like the Leicester bubble still has some legs left yet).

Might I enquire as to where you / Elpasi are sourcing this info? I knocked up a spreadsheet of similar info about my locality at the weekend (which is showing some small but potentially promising trends in inventory/sales) however using Rightmove as the source only gets me inventory data for the past two years; when ideally I'd like to go further back.

Leicester is an out and out inventory squeeze.For some reason people aren't marketing their houses.I would hazard a guess it's a mix of the cost of moving,remo issues and general nervousness.Up here available stock has been drifting down for two years April 15 986 houses/flats available to Nov 2016 639............

 

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3 minutes ago, jfk said:

How do I get the code and use it? would be interested in charting south manchester areas, bubblicious it is.

Unfortunately,it's not mine to give away.I've just been given access.I can honestly say,I haven't got the vaguest clue how it works.

If you put up the postcodes you're after I'll put them up.I'll pm Elpasi.In our original chats he didn't appear too keen on broad access but he said it wasn't hard to do if you're a programmer.

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