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houseface2000

Which type of property & location will crash hardest

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Ive been thinking what type of homes and what locations will crash hardest (when it happens)...  will it be the areas that have inflated the most, i.e the best parts of city's or will they hold up as there seems to be a trend towards urban living. Where I live in Oxford flats and houses in the nice parts of the city have had massive rise over the last 3 years of 60% + while surrounding villages  (5 mile radius) have had more modest growth of 25%. Talking to an agent, they said over 50% of transactions pre April 2016, Pre brexit where either BTL or London buyers who see the insane prices good value. 

Anyway question is where will fall hardest rural or urban?

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Also, it's all about prices returning to the norm. So local wages x 4 ish should give a house appropriate to those wages. The bigger the bubble the bigger the pop.

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i've been saying for years that new build flats will be worthless in the near future but they just keep going up.

i bought a victorian terraced near a crossrail station to limit the losses once the bubble bursts so we'll see how that pans out

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If properties are unsold... Empty... Start to deteriorate... I believe councils can force the owner to maintain them? Could they be forced to sell?

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Crap places with low wages. Luton, the entire side of East London will fall hard, newbuilds in general, Reading.

The more out of whack and undesirable they are, the harder they will fall.

 

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I would imagine that with the gov trying to improve housing supply one of the easy targets would probably be the south west with all the 2nd holiday homes, expect larger rates increases on empty properties which are not primary residences.

also someone might know the answer to this, would it be possible to measure the drop as a proportion of the house prices at the lowest hpi level since 2007?

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48 minutes ago, honkydonkey said:

Crap places with low wages. Luton, the entire side of East London will fall hard, newbuilds in general, Reading.

The more out of whack and undesirable they are, the harder they will fall.

 

Crap places that folk don't realise are crap yet. Many silk purses made out of sow's ears in places like Noth London (a one million pound pad was described as ''Stab Central'' on another thread) and not forgetting university towns like Oxford and Cambridge.

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I think flats for sure! I swear btl landlords seem to the the least aware when overpaying !! (I saw 3 flats all sell to landlords in the same block over a 6 month period (could see they come up for rent on RM after the sale) sold for £230,000 in 2013 £400,000 end of 2015 early 2016. They have massive service charges, next to social housing, next to dual carrage way so have noise issues and rent for £1200. Saw one come up again £50k less a few months ago for £350,000 didn't sell dropped to £330,000 didnt sell removed from market. Because no one would acctually want to own a place liike that to live, its just a box that gives yeild...

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The most expensive places in relation to local jobs and wages.

London is a n obvious one. The new taxes mean invesiting/holding UK property becomes very expensive. And rightly so IMO.

As a non London example, look at Redcar:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=REGION^1115&radius=3.0

OK most of the expensive stuff is in Saltburn.  But just because Saltburn is nicer than Redcar it does not follow that there are jobs and people willing to spend 500k+ on a house in an area where tere are few jobs and where the public sector is due to be slashed.

 

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London semis. Especially zone 5 and beyond. Previously owned by a generation of hard working teachers, shop workers and bus drivers now coasting near the 3/4 of a million mark even in the crappie areas. 

London house prices:semi-detached family homes now cost over £1 million in a third of boroughs

http://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/london-house-prices-semidetached-family-homes-now-cost-over-1-million-in-a-third-of-boroughs-a106111.html

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1 hour ago, honkydonkey said:

Crap places with low wages. Luton, the entire side of East London will fall hard, newbuilds in general, Reading.

The more out of whack and undesirable they are, the harder they will fall.

 

No not Reading. Readings great. Everyone is a silicon valley billionaire.

Reading/Thames valley was always a fight between the slum clearance doleys and the attempt to put business parks in the area.

 

The slum clearance doleys have one. Reading looks and feels like Bradford.

The industrial parks in Bracknell are being knocked down and turned into social flats.

 

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2 minutes ago, spyguy said:

The most expensive places in relation to local jobs and wages.

London is a n obvious one. The new taxes mean invesiting/holding UK property becomes very expensive. And rightly so IMO.

As a non London example, look at Redcar:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=REGION^1115&radius=3.0

OK most of the expensive stuff is in Saltburn.  But just because Saltburn is nicer than Redcar it does not follow that there are jobs and people willing to spend 500k+ on a house in an area where tere are few jobs and where the public sector is due to be slashed.

 

That looks very expensive for up north !!

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1 minute ago, houseface2000 said:

That looks very expensive for up north !!

It really is.

I think the thinking goes - boro + redcar are sh1tholes. Saltburn is nice, so people will pay to not live in boro or Redcar.

If you had 500k+ to blow oon a house then you are morelikely to leave the UK than buy in Saltburn.

I should really stress there are very few jobs that pay much i nth that area.

There's just not the income to support ,much north of 200k.

Have a look at actual prices:

https://houseprices.io/?q=saltburn

 

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Few go for above 200k. Runswick is not Saltburn and special!

 

And this one:

08/07/2016£866Moor View, Church Drive, Boosbeck, Saltburn-By-The-Sea, TS12 3AY

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1 hour ago, honkydonkey said:

Crap places with low wages. Luton, the entire side of East London will fall hard, newbuilds in general, Reading.

The more out of whack and undesirable they are, the harder they will fall.

 

Flats in Luton I would put money on crashing hard 

Currently close to 2000 flats in the own centre alone planned or being built , ones built and listed for sale are 200k plus for 1 beds ..there are already 88 1 beds listed for lower than that. I think the builders / council have totally underestimated OO demand for flats and the hit on BTL sales due to new tax rules 

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I am old enough to remember the crash in the 90s.  IT WAS SAVAGE.

In Kensington & Chelsea ex-council properties sold for £4k.

In Hull houses were bought and sold in the pub. A solicitor would be at a table and it was done right there. No searches, no surveys, no exchanges, no EAs, no bullsh!t; you wanna buy it or not?

What I'm saying is a real crash affects all areas and all properties. Properties can't sell because no-one's got the money.

That said, my personal wish is to see all these places with kitchens in the living room "open plan living" hit the wall at a million miles per hour.

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2 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

I would guess places that have risen the most.  Properly the cheaper properties in any area are the ones that are most at risk.

But would say a flat in a premium area that attracts rich types that's gone up 60% or a 3 bed family home in a more rural down at heal place that's gone up 20% ??

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Just now, houseface2000 said:

But would say a flat in a premium area that attracts rich types that's gone up 60% or a 3 bed family home in a more rural down at heal place that's gone up 20% ??

Well it just a guess but I would say the flat as everyone will buy houses instead. I wish Zoopla went back 40 years and they we would know.

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2 hours ago, honkydonkey said:

Crap places with low wages. Luton, the entire side of East London will fall hard, newbuilds in general, Reading.

The more out of whack and undesirable they are, the harder they will fall.

 

Sounds logical to me

Places where local people earn a lot of money will still go down but commensurate with the availability/cost of finance.

Places where local people have no money and the places are being bought by speculators will fall by the availability/cost of finance for the local people....

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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I prefer to live with kitchen at one end of the living room BUT minimum room size for that is 6m x 4m which is what I have now and perfect for a 1bed flat.

If there were messy kids and lots of family involved that room size should be a kitchen-diner with a seperate 5x5 room as the living room.

Fantasist? ....  or just living in the mindset of a mere 40 years ago?

Anyway the problem is room size not a choice for open plan.

A 4x4 room can only have one function. Anything less than 3m is a corridoor and should not count as total m2 living space. And that m2 should be on every listing with huge fines for agents who misrepresent. There, that's my application to be housing minister. 

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