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The Big I've just let a Trump Rip Thread - economic visionary or economic decline

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38697653

 

Quote

From this day forward, a new vision will govern our land.

From this day forward, it's going to be only America First, America First.

Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs, will be made to benefit American workers and American families.

We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our products, stealing our companies, and destroying our jobs. Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength.

I will fight for you with every breath in my body - and I will never, ever let you down.

America will start winning again, winning like never before.

We will bring back our jobs. We will bring back our borders. We will bring back our wealth. And we will bring back our dreams.

We will build new roads, and highways, and bridges, and airports, and tunnels, and railways all across our wonderful nation.

We will get our people off of welfare and back to work - rebuilding our country with American hands and American labour.

We will follow two simple rules: Buy American and hire American.

We will seek friendship and goodwill with the nations of the world - but we do so with the understanding that it is the right of all nations to put their own interests first.

 

Trump's Economic Plan: Create 25 Million Jobs, Grow GDP At 4%, Lower Taxes For All Americans

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President Trump’s economic plan will create 25 million new jobs in next decade, “return to 4 percent annual economic growth,” "lower rates for Americans in every tax bracket, simplify the tax code, and reduce the U.S. corporate tax rate” according to a statement posted on the White House wesbite.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/bringing-back-jobs-and-growth

Since the recession of 2008, American workers and businesses have suffered through the slowest economic recovery since World War II. The U.S. lost nearly 300,000 manufacturing jobs during this period, while the share of Americans in the work force plummeted to lows not seen since the 1970s, the national debt doubled, and middle class got smaller. To get the economy back on track, President Trump has outlined a bold plan to create 25 million new American jobs in the next decade and return to 4 percent annual economic growth.

The plan starts with pro-growth tax reform to help American workers and businesses keep more of their hard-earned dollars. The President’s plan will lower rates for Americans in every tax bracket, simplify the tax code, and reduce the U.S. corporate tax rate, which is one of the highest in the world. Fixing a tax code that is outdated, overly complex, and too onerous will unleash America’s economy, creating millions of new jobs and boosting economic growth.

As a lifelong job-creator and businessman, the President also knows how important it is to get Washington out of the way of America’s small businesses, entrepreneurs, and workers. In 2015 alone, federal regulations cost the American economy more than $2 trillion. That is why the President has proposed a moratorium on new federal regulations and is ordering the heads of federal agencies and departments to identify job-killing regulations that should be repealed.

With decades of deal-making experience, the President also understands how critical it is to negotiate the best possible trade deals for the United States. By renegotiating existing trade deals, and taking a tough stance on future ones, we will ensure that trade agreements bring good-paying jobs to our shores and support American manufacturing, the backbone of our economy. The President plans to show America’s trading partners that we mean business by ensuring consequences for countries that engage in illegal or unfair trade practices that hurt American workers.

By standing side-by-side with America’s workers and businesses, the President’s policies will unleash economic growth, create 25 million new jobs, and help Make America Great Again.

I think Trump deserves his own thread, although failure won't really be his fault as he's inherited decades long worth of problems.  However it's going to be interesting to see how this turns out!

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20 minutes ago, interestrateripoff said:

Trumponomics may be wrong medicine for U.S. economy today

 

WASHINGTON Tax cuts, deregulation and more federal spending advocated by the incoming Trump administration are a classic remedy for economic stagnation and long unemployment lines.

It's so outrageous that "full" employment is considered as just enough unemployment so that there are more people looking for work than jobs available, so as not to stoke inflation, FFS, wage inflation is the right kind of inflation for non-elites.

If Trump means what he says, that's exactly what he'll be looking for. What it means for the rest of us, who knows. Maybe we just have to adapt too.

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13 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Bigger deficit and QE4 anyone?

Well, the kind of pro-wage inflation policy I'm talking about above would probably have dire consequences without major structural changes in the economy, you know, money creation and the like. The outcome you're suggesting is the likely outcome without such reforms.

I have a feeling that he'll press ahead with his policies but will find the might of the elites too much to make those kind of reforms, the kind that are needed to make the policies work without creating huge deficits, sky-high interest rates and untold money printing - all the reasons why that type of policy isn't followed and part of the stranglehold the elites have on us.

He'll take on the elites and fail, and the American people will be punished for it.

...is one possibility

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He'll take on the elites and fail

I think that's true- but I also think he will inflict a lot of damage on those elites in the process, if only because he will provide a running commentary on twitter.

Whatever you think about Trump it took some balls to stand up in front of the washington establishment and more or less call them a bunch of inneffectual and/or corrupt morons who have lined their pockets at the expense of the people. For that alone Trump deserves some respect.

They will destroy him eventually- but in a sense it already too late- he has changed the game by winning it without playing by the rules.

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2 hours ago, Digsby said:

Well, the kind of pro-wage inflation policy I'm talking about above would probably have dire consequences without major structural changes in the economy, you know, money creation and the like. The outcome you're suggesting is the likely outcome without such reforms.

I have a feeling that he'll press ahead with his policies but will find the might of the elites too much to make those kind of reforms, the kind that are needed to make the policies work without creating huge deficits, sky-high interest rates and untold money printing - all the reasons why that type of policy isn't followed and part of the stranglehold the elites have on us.

He'll take on the elites and fail, and the American people will be punished for it.

...is one possibility

Take on the elites? At what, Canasta?

The casino bankers love him, the arms manufacturers love him, the corporate kleptocrats love him... Goldman Sachs is up nearly 1/3rd since November 8th!

Smells like business-as-usual to me. Grow the economy by feeding the FIRE (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate) and use the full spectrum superiority of the US war machine to enforce international compliance with the Washington Consensus.

The likelihood that his wildly inflationary Reagan-style spending extravagances will collapse the global ponzi sooner rather than later is the only (small) positive that I can identify.

I give him two years tops.

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15 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Take on the elites? At what, Canasta?

The casino bankers love him, the arms manufacturers love him, the corporate kleptocrats love him... Goldman Sachs is up nearly 1/3rd since November 8th!

Smells like business-as-usual to me. Grow the economy by feeding the FIRE (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate) and use the full spectrum superiority of the US war machine to enforce international compliance with the Washington Consensus.

The likelihood that his wildly inflationary Reagan-style spending extravagances will collapse the global ponzi sooner rather than later is the only (small) positive that I can identify.

I give him two years tops.

Yes that's another possibility. Since neither of us are Donald Trump, we can only guess.

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3 hours ago, Digsby said:

Well, the kind of pro-wage inflation policy I'm talking about above would probably have dire consequences without major structural changes in the economy, you know, money creation and the like. The outcome you're suggesting is the likely outcome without such reforms.

I have a feeling that he'll press ahead with his policies but will find the might of the elites too much to make those kind of reforms, the kind that are needed to make the policies work without creating huge deficits, sky-high interest rates and untold money printing - all the reasons why that type of policy isn't followed and part of the stranglehold the elites have on us.

He'll take on the elites and fail, and the American people will be punished for it.

...is one possibility

Trump is one of the elite. 

It's not like there's a single committee or something, they don't all agree all the time.

Business elites have been slowly usurping democratic politicians for decades. In that sense, Trump doesn't represent a change in direction at all, he represents an accelleration.

Maybe he'll achieve something good, but it'll be by accident.  

Personally I'm betting on a reckless credit boom followed by a sharp bust, but anything is possible.

 

Edited by BuyToLeech

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Take on the elites? At what, Canasta?

The casino bankers love him, the arms manufacturers love him, the corporate kleptocrats love him... Goldman Sachs is up nearly 1/3rd since November 8th!

Smells like business-as-usual to me. Grow the economy by feeding the FIRE (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate) and use the full spectrum superiority of the US war machine to enforce international compliance with the Washington Consensus.

The likelihood that his wildly inflationary Reagan-style spending extravagances will collapse the global ponzi sooner rather than later is the only (small) positive that I can identify.

I give him two years tops.

I don't think the man who killed TTIP can be accused of seeking to impose the Washington Consensus. Trump may in fact be their worst nightmare because he seems to suffer from the dangerous delusion that he should attempt to actually do what he said he would do while campaigning for office. This mental abberation makes him vitually unique and deeply toxic to the elite establishment around him.

That establishment keep waiting for the moment when 'reality' will take hold and Trump will fall into line and start to play the game according to their rules. What if that day never comes? What if Trump is-contrary to all cynical expectations- actually sincere?

 

 

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23 minutes ago, wonderpup said:

I don't think the man who killed TTIP can be accused of seeking to impose the Washington Consensus. Trump may in fact be their worst nightmare because he seems to suffer from the dangerous delusion that he should attempt to actually do what he said he would do while campaigning for office. This mental abberation makes him vitually unique and deeply toxic to the elite establishment around him.

That establishment keep waiting for the moment when 'reality' will take hold and Trump will fall into line and start to play the game according to their rules. What if that day never comes? What if Trump is-contrary to all cynical expectations- actually sincere?

 

 

I assume he is sincere, so what?

His agenda is the usual: deregulate business and lower taxes for the rich. 

His protectionism is about rigging trade deals even further in favour of the US, as the US has always tried to do, and some anti-immigrant rhetoric.

Yes, he's a change from the Washington consensus, but only because he wants to do more of the things that they wouldn't dare admit openly, and that's largely because he's an inexperienced 'deal maker' who doesn't understand diplomacy.

Of course, that does make him unpredictable, and that itself might mean he can get a better deal, but it'll be entirely accidental.

I'm sure that the people who really run America would rather that a grown-up was in charge, but he's still one of them and they've got the rest of the Republican Party to babysit.

 

Edited by BuyToLeech

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6 hours ago, BuyToLeech said:

I assume he is sincere, so what?

His agenda is the usual: deregulate business and lower taxes for the rich. 

His protectionism is about rigging trade deals even further in favour of the US, as the US has always tried to do, and some anti-immigrant rhetoric.

Yes, he's a change from the Washington consensus, but only because he wants to do more of the things that they wouldn't dare admit openly, and that's largely because he's an inexperienced 'deal maker' who doesn't understand diplomacy.

Of course, that does make him unpredictable, and that itself might mean he can get a better deal, but it'll be entirely accidental.

I'm sure that the people who really run America would rather that a grown-up was in charge, but he's still one of them and they've got the rest of the Republican Party to babysit.

 

This post doesn't make any sense to me.

Deregulate business? That's good if it allows the little guy to compete again.

Lower taxes for the rich? Time will tell. But you think that paying 50%+ is not too much? What would you like? 60%? 70%? 

Trade deals in favour of the US? They aren't currently. They're harming it. OK so the US has essentially been living off the rest of the world with debt, but it's precisely that approach that has them in trouble. 

An inexperienced deal-maker with no experience of diplomacy? Who told you that? The BBC? You must know him so well.

Grown up? As far as I can tell he's the first adult in charge for decades, as referenced by your contradictory follow-up comment about babysitting the rest of the party. 

As with any true change, things will get worse before they get better. I hope he's given the chance to go through the pain to get to the good stuff. After all, we are the 51st state.

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I like Trump but watching his speech yesterday gave me the chills...we have heard this sort of thing before in Germany in the 1930's.

 

So begins the next phase of the financial crisis; we have had currency wars now it will be economic wars on both sides of the Atlantic (note Mays speech this week).

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8 hours ago, BuyToLeech said:

Trump is one of the elite. 

It's not like there's a single committee or something, they don't all agree all the time.

Business elites have been slowly usurping democratic politicians for decades. In that sense, Trump doesn't represent a change in direction at all, he represents an accelleration.

Maybe he'll achieve something good, but it'll be by accident.  

Personally I'm betting on a reckless credit boom followed by a sharp bust, but anything is possible.

 

In the US hasn't that been since the start of the revolution?

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5 hours ago, sideysid said:

The elites know that there will be a global financial 'correction' in the near future, what better to have Trump as the fall guy during his presidency.

Probably this

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Whether they love him or loath him most people in the UK don't get Trump. In many ways it is irrelevant whether he is a member of the global elite or not. What matters is that he is an American and he sees the world primarily  from a U.S. historical perspective. He may be an elitist but he is not a globalist.

The United States for much of its first hundred plus years of existence was largely isolationist building its economic and political power by excluding the rest of the world from the American continents (the Monroe doctrine). It was only  in the late 19th and early 20th Century that Presidents such as Theodore Roosevelt began to develop global ambitions. That process made the U.S. the dominant global power but came at a huge price not just economically but in terms of US citizens having to subordinate their own lives to an imperial project (the sorrows of Empire).  Given that even countries like Britain which benefited hugely from Empire have often wondered about the costs of such projects it is hardly surprising that the U.S. with its massive internal economy and only limited dependency on World Trade goes through periods when it wonders if it is all worth it.

Trump essentially sits in that isolationist  tradition and his statements have to be seen as part of it. That makes him far from being a political abberration. Instead, he is simply expressing beliefs that have long been held by many in the U.S. but which the rest of the world have simply forgotten or preferred to ignore. Selling globalism to US voters who are not materially benefiting from their countries position as global hegemon was ultimately always going to run into problems.

The danger from Trump is not that he is going to actively trigger conflict but that his doctrine of the U.S. first in terms of jobs, trade, business is going to have a major impact on how the rest of the world starts looking at its neighbours. It is there that the trouble is going to happen. In fact the reason so many of the global elite like don't like Trump is because they are worried about what is going to happen to their interests outside the US. Many of them had political and economic agendas which essentially were being bankrolled by the US military, the U.S. dollar, the U.S. taxpayer and ultimately with US soldiers lives.

So yes to point out that Trump is a member of the US elite and will govern in its interests and not necessarily that of the US poor is correct. However, it does not follow that he is going to govern in the interests of other elites which is what has happened in the past half century or so. In some ways I think the U.S. ruling class may have recognised from events in Europe and elsewhere  that the gig could be up for global capitalism at least for the time being and that they had better make plans to preserve what they have got. They also may be starting to realise that what is good for the European or Chinese ruling groups is not necessarily going to be good for them in the long term. The danger of this process is that this fracturing of what can only be described as 'an elite consensus' is often the first harbinger of major wars

 

Edited by stormymonday_2011

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7 hours ago, BuyToLeech said:

Trump is one of the elite. 

It's not like there's a single committee or something, they don't all agree all the time.

Business elites have been slowly usurping democratic politicians for decades. In that sense, Trump doesn't represent a change in direction at all, he represents an accelleration.

Maybe he'll achieve something good, but it'll be by accident.  

Personally I'm betting on a reckless credit boom followed by a sharp bust, but anything is possible.

 

He's not just a 1%er, he's a 0.001%er. He is the elite of the elite. He's not one of them - he is to them as they are to us. You could gather the people wealthier than he in a village hall!

In that respect, he does represent a change in direction. If he's determined to make a name for himself in the history books, then as you say anything is possible.

Where he goes from here and what it will lead to is anybodys guess in my view.

One thing is for sure: there will be losers.

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20 minutes ago, Digsby said:

He's not just a 1%er, he's a 0.001%er. He is the elite of the elite. He's not one of them - he is to them as they are to us. You could gather the people wealthier than he in a village hall!

In that respect, he does represent a change in direction. If he's determined to make a name for himself in the history books, then as you say anything is possible.

Where he goes from here and what it will lead to is anybodys guess in my view.

One thing is for sure: there will be losers.

Well I don't think he is necessarily batting for European political and economic elites.

They have basically been hiding behind US guns, U.S. soldiers and U.S. taxpayers dollars since 1945. 

That free ride looks like it has just ended.

Anyway a lot of the ideas on trade etc that Trump has been spouting are not just gimcrack slogans  cooked up for the 2016 election. If you look at his interviews and speeches going back to the 1980s and earlier exactly the same themes and arguments are there. What has altered is not the views Trump expressed but that this time unlike in the past they have got him both nominated and elected to the Presidency. It is not Trump that has changed but the views of many U.S. citizens to the rest of the world.

Edited by stormymonday_2011

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Well it could go stupendously right or wrong. Re. the deficit, you would have thought slashing Obamacare, getting a one off tax take from Corporate repatriation and likely acceleration in GDP would offset any loss from tax cuts and spending on infrastructure. Trillions of dollars in interventions promised on both the debit and credit side means that the eventual outcome is impossible to predict.

Edited by crashmonitor

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4 minutes ago, stormymonday_2011 said:

Well I don't think he is necessarily batting for European elites.

They have basically been hiding behind US guns, U.S. soldiers and U.S. taxpayers dollars since 1945. 

That free ride looks like it has just ended.

I'm not disagreeing with that, quite the opposite. He's not one us, but he's not one of them either. Re the free ride ending, yes that looks to be the case and I agree with your analysis that this is what most of all the fuss is about. It's going to be interesting if nothing else.

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Strong echoes of the 1930s. And not just the overt nationalism. See also Smoot-Hawley https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot–Hawley_Tariff_Act

On the one hand, we may see a trade war with China brewing and that could put a giant spoke in the wheel of the world economy leading a depression.

On the other, Trump has his own brand goods made in China so he may just be full of you know what.

 

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1 minute ago, Tempus said:

Strong echoes of the 1930s.

 

I guess the Uk media hasn't ever presented such a full clip of a Trump speech on the main news. The commentators seemed to imply this was a slightly tempered version of his election rallying speeches. Nevertheless, I was slightly surprised it wasn't more temepered and have noted that it surprised quite a few other people over here too and it has stirred people into conversation. At least you can't accuse of him of holding back what he really thinks.

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