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Digsby

House Prices around the country in 106 charts

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Looks like everything's going up to me...

How do you know where the top is?

If you were to travel into the future and append two more years of a similar trend then what would you call the 2016 top?

Interest rates will bring the crash. But Carney will QE the sky before he puts IR past 0.5%. Why is there so much faith in Carney to do the right thing and raise them when he has only trashed the £ so far?

Have you got graphs of £ cash balances sat on the sidelines waiting for a crash and their purchasing power vs buyers in every other country?

What are they going to look like in 2 years time?

I don't think this is going to be as straight forward as people seem to think...

Not taking a dig, appreciate the graphs.

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For example in some areas HPI is 30% and £ has lost 30%. You now need 85% more £ savings to buy a house.  If you are a Brit, Carney is raping you.

That's not to mention the increase in prices is pushing many into a higher Stamp Duty threshold and soon a higher Council Tax threshold, not to mention solicitors and estate agents often have a proportional fee... anybody holding £ is getting absolutely rammed and yes that includes me. But I do see some people say they are heavy £ and wonder for them...

And how on earth do they intend to curb immigration by opening a jar of honey for foreigners like that. Such a huge competitive advantage for house bidding. I don't buy for one second that it isn't happening like that. Ask anybody selling London property who the buyers are.

Edited by adamLancs

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21 minutes ago, adamLancs said:

Looks like everything's going up to me...

How do you know where the top is?

If you were to travel into the future and append two more years of a similar trend then what would you call the 2016 top?

Interest rates will bring the crash. But Carney will QE the sky before he puts IR past 0.5%. Why is there so much faith in Carney to do the right thing and raise them when he has only trashed the £ so far?

Have you got graphs of £ cash balances sat on the sidelines waiting for a crash and their purchasing power vs buyers in every other country?

What are they going to look like in 2 years time?

I don't think this is going to be as straight forward as people seem to think...

Not taking a dig, appreciate the graphs.

WTF?!!

Read my comment again. The top is the highest prices have reached. Past the top means the top is in the past. I'm not making any predictions, I'm pointing out that prices have been falling for a number of months in many areas of the country, contrary to what a lot of articles in the press are saying, such as this one.

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Just now, Digsby said:

WTF?!!

Read my comment again. The top is the highest prices have reached. Past the top means the top is in the past. I'm not making any predictions, I'm pointing out that prices have been falling for a number of months in many areas of the country, contrary to what a lot of articles in the press are saying, such as this one.

:lol: Indeed. I may have jumped the gun a little.

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6 hours ago, Digsby said:

I'd say 40% of the country looks very much past it's top (this is ONS HPI data by the way).

This is awesome work, so good to be able to sift through the bulls hit headlines and see the wood for the trees. 

I personally think we need to see more substantial down trends established before we can be sure we're past top and they're not going to jump higher again. What  falls there are haven't for the most part reversed the bigger upward overall trend yet - but certainly a few more monoths of data with indexes heading downward and many areas will look like they're toppling. 

By the way, I couldn't spot any london boroughs, are they there and I'm missing them? 

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4 hours ago, Foreverblowingbubbles said:

This is awesome work, so good to be able to sift through the bulls hit headlines and see the wood for the trees. 

I personally think we need to see more substantial down trends established before we can be sure we're past top and they're not going to jump higher again. What  falls there are haven't for the most part reversed the bigger upward overall trend yet - but certainly a few more monoths of data with indexes heading downward and many areas will look like they're toppling. 

By the way, I couldn't spot any london boroughs, are they there and I'm missing them? 

Thank you (and darkmarket) for the compliments. It will be interesting to see what December/January will bring, A lot of the places that have had a few months of falls are the ones where they ticked up again in November. I count 64 with November price rises - whether November is the beginning of a new trend or a blip on the way down remains to be seen. With HTB2 disappearing in December and the PRA supervisory statement taking effect, I think there is a good chance of a bit of a rush from FTBs and BTLs alike.

No I deliberately missed out London boroughs as it would have added another 30-odd charts, but now I have figured out the commands to batch process them, a separate London one wouldn't be too much effort to produce if you'd like to see it.

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13 minutes ago, Digsby said:

a separate London one wouldn't be too much effort to produce if you'd like to see it.

does Donald Trump sh*t in the white house???!!!

yes please. thanks.

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Great stuff Digsby. Could you explain what the House Price Index actually means? For example, what does 110 mean? Is this the price relative to a date in the past (if so what date)? 

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Having looked over the latest charts now, it seems December was one crazy month.

About 50% of the areas were static, another 25% had falling prices, and the last 25% had mental gains. See the Hartlepool chart? That uptick represents a 7% increase in price IN ONE MONTH! Taking the annual HPI for Hartlepool from about -1% in November to +5% in December! 

That's not normal, either volumes were extremely low introducing volatility in the calculations, or volumes were very high indicating panic buying. Given the reported increase in mortgage approvals for FTBs, I suggest it was the latter caused by the ending of HTB2, not unlike the BTL surge last March.

Time will tell when we get the sales volumes in a couple of months, but I reckon a downswing in prices in next months publication will confirm it as demand withers away.

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8 minutes ago, Digsby said:

Having looked over the latest charts now, it seems December was one crazy month.

About 50% of the areas were static, another 25% had falling prices, and the last 25% had mental gains. See the Hartlepool chart? That uptick represents a 7% increase in price IN ONE MONTH! Taking the annual HPI for Hartlepool from about -1% in November to +5% in December! 

That's not normal, either volumes were extremely low introducing volatility in the calculations, or volumes were very high indicating panic buying. Given the reported increase in mortgage approvals for FTBs, I suggest it was the latter caused by the ending of HTB2, not unlike the BTL surge last March.

Time will tell when we get the sales volumes in a couple of months, but I reckon a downswing in prices in next months publication will confirm it as demand withers away.

This indicates that there is still gargantum quatities of money sloshing in the system searching for a home, moving from the too highly priced areas to the places with value, i can see the north catching up with the south east (in some areas).

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4 minutes ago, GreenDevil said:

This indicates that there is still gargantum quatities of money sloshing in the system searching for a home, moving from the too highly priced areas to the places with value, i can see the north catching up with the south east (in some areas).

If it was a HTB rush, these are people buying at 95% LTV - at 75% LTV rates. Those who missed the boat  (let's call it the Titanic) are going to face much higher rates, and are going to need to raise an extra 5 or 10% deposit, which is what, £10-15k maybe? How long before they can afford to buy? 

No, if this was due to HTB, collapse will follow.

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6 hours ago, Digsby said:

If it was a HTB rush, these are people buying at 95% LTV - at 75% LTV rates. Those who missed the boat  (let's call it the Titanic) are going to face much higher rates, and are going to need to raise an extra 5 or 10% deposit, which is what, £10-15k maybe? How long before they can afford to buy? 

No, if this was due to HTB, collapse will follow.

Htb is that up ? Or ending soon?

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