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Sancho Panza

Post code inventory/transaction ratio:for those who watch paint dry

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A metric I like watching is the inventory/sales ratio.It gives me a rough idea of how long the market would take to clear if no new stock was added.

Data from RM

One or two of the postcodes I follow

 

Sept 16 LE2-Leicester- 721/117= 6 months supply

Sept 16 TR11-Cornwall-333/49=7 months supply

Sept 16 SW3-London innit-596/14= 42 months supply

And the winner is....

Sept 16 SW8-London-2005/29= 69 months supply

 

If anyone is sad enough to know of anywhere with more than 12 months inventory,I'd be interested to know.

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Awesome - I only follow central London, I knew supply/demand was high here, I hadn't realised how high. Plus even if transactions pick up it will keep on rising due to the amount of new build going on.

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16 minutes ago, NorthernMonkey said:

Sunderland SR2

 

Sept 16 - SR2 465/20 = 23 Months Supply

 

but that's not uncommon up here, very little actually sells, despite the abundance of SOLD (sstc) signs everywhere and on rightmove.

 

What Ive foun is that 70% of the For Sale stock drifts of EAs books and RM after a few years.

No matter how bad the RM stats are, the reality on the ground in the North is much much worse.

I used to track stuff in my local town. The last 10 years+ have seen ~20% of the normal number of sales.

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3 minutes ago, spyguy said:

What Ive foun is that 70% of the For Sale stock drifts of EAs books and RM after a few years.

No matter how bad the RM stats are, the reality on the ground in the North is much much worse.

I used to track stuff in my local town. The last 10 years+ have seen ~20% of the normal number of sales.

Exactly that, houses simply move around agents books for a few years, often "selling" then magically re-appearing under another agent.

 

People still believe that houses are selling and that their own pile of bricks in an entirely economically forgotten environment is somehow magically worth well over 10 x the average local salary...  

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I've been pondering the situation in SW3 and decided to go back a few years.

It turns out he demand/supply imbalance is the worst it's been since 2007.SW3 is leading the charge it appears.

This is a nasty set up for anyone wanting to sell there.

Sep 2007 361/51=7 months supply

Sep 2008 550/25 22 months

Sep 2009 465/49=9 months

Sep 2010 430/34=12 months

Sep 2011 382/49= 8 months

Sep 2012 444/26=17 months

Sep 2013 442/43=10 months

Sep 2014 549/49= 11 months

Sep 2015  504/31=16 months

Sep 2016 596/14=42 months supply

 

Edit to add-raw unadjusted data warning.DYOR.

Edited by Sancho Panza
to add data warning.

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There really does seem a shortage of property up here in Leicester.Inventory dropping heavily over two years.Prices are spiking upward as a result.

W2

1137/34=33 months supply.

 

LE3

561/102= 5 months supply

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W8 Kensington Sept 17

535/14=38 months supply

SW7 Knightsbridge Sept 17

561/8=70 months supply.......... a new leader

SW10 West Brompton Sept 17

538/9=59 months supply

W11 Notting Hill Sept 17

464/24= 19 months supply.

 

 

 

Edited by Sancho Panza
add dates

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Interesting stats, clearly the prices of flats / semi are falling and prices of detached houses are rising.

Im outa luck im looking for a detached, big spike higher in prices locally into Oct/Nov :(

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SW19 Wimbledon plus surrounding area 

1022/59 - 17 months supply. Interestingly, only six more properties sold in September than in April and, barring the SDLT anomaly, September had the lowest transaction levels since April 2009. 

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I got a little bored and made a scraper to chart some of these for me.  I'm a bit worried if I just give out the links then RM might block me for botting, but at least highcharts lets me export the images from the webpages nicely!

 

For example, that SW8 mentioned by OP swings like crazy:

 

 

chart.png

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Sidcup in south east London DA15:

September 2016: 141/49=3 month's supply. It is going to grow like hell.

Edited by kalkal1
Typos

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3 hours ago, kalkal1 said:

Sidcup in south east London DA15:

September 2016: 141/49=3 month's supply. It is going to grow like hell.

Prices more likely to go up in the near term than down.

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10 hours ago, elpasi said:

I got a little bored and made a scraper to chart some of these for me.  I'm a bit worried if I just give out the links then RM might block me for botting, but at least highcharts lets me export the images from the webpages nicely!

 

For example, that SW8 mentioned by OP swings like crazy:

 

 

chart.png

I'd be really interested if you could PM me with how you've done that.

 

SW8 is a bit of a one off due to the developments that are being done there.

If you could do me one of these for SW7 Knightsbridge,I'd be your new best friend.

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15 hours ago, This time said:

SW19 Wimbledon plus surrounding area 

1022/59 - 17 months supply. Interestingly, only six more properties sold in September than in April and, barring the SDLT anomaly, September had the lowest transaction levels since April 2009. 

Transactions have collapsed in central Londinium from what I can see.

EA's must be squealing.

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10 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

I'd be really interested if you could PM me with how you've done that.

 

SW8 is a bit of a one off due to the developments that are being done there.

If you could do me one of these for SW7 Knightsbridge,I'd be your new best friend.

SW7.

The effects of April having four sales is really pronounced in the shape of the graph.

chart (1).png

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1 hour ago, elpasi said:

SW7.

The effects of April having four sales is really pronounced in the shape of the graph.

chart (1).png

Wow,Definitely an uptick similar to the one in 2009......coincidence? Worth noting the new highs are the result of rising inventory as much as dropping transactions.

It definitely skews the chart when the denominator is abnormally low.As per your PM,I think some sort of smoothing mechanism eg a 3 month moving average would give a better medium term picture.

Thank you ever so much.That was very kind of you.

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To the original poster, many thanks for this as it is thought provoking.  Creating a time series around this and then looking for correlation to pricing trends would be insightful (should be a forward indicator).

For London, I imagine as soon as you look at higher priced stock, say over 1m, the time periods jump?

Interested to know what SW20 and SW19 look like in the 1m to 1.5m bracket if you have time.

Thanks in advance

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4 hours ago, Reality said:

To the original poster, many thanks for this as it is thought provoking.  Creating a time series around this and then looking for correlation to pricing trends would be insightful (should be a forward indicator).

For London, I imagine as soon as you look at higher priced stock, say over 1m, the time periods jump?

Interested to know what SW20 and SW19 look like in the 1m to 1.5m bracket if you have time.

Thanks in advance

 

SW20 3MMA.jpeg

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In all fairness,Elpasi has done some excellent work setting this up for us.I'm grateful for what we've got but if you had the technical know how then you could likely refine it further.

With reference to the price brackets,you would probably need to utilise the full Land reg dataset.

Personally,I'm more interested in monitoring inventory levels and pricing.SW3 is collapsing from what we can see(raw unadjusted data warning).These 'hot money' postcodes led the bubble on the way up.It wouldn't shock me if they led it on the way down.

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4 hours ago, Reality said:

To the original poster, many thanks for this as it is thought provoking.  Creating a time series around this and then looking for correlation to pricing trends would be insightful (should be a forward indicator).

For London, I imagine as soon as you look at higher priced stock, say over 1m, the time periods jump?

Interested to know what SW20 and SW19 look like in the 1m to 1.5m bracket if you have time.

Thanks in advance

SW19 is looking a lot more 2009 than SW20.Elpasi has added a 3 month average to smooth the results a little as you would with a share chart.

SW19 Sept16 3MMA.png

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2 hours ago, luvadealme said:

could you do one for Exeter postcodes, where my parents are looking at buying, am thinking EX1, EX2, EX3 and EX4 please.
 

 

 

chart(21).png

chart(22).png

chart(23).png

chart(24).png

Edited by Sancho Panza

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