House Price Mania

[ExiledMatty]

I can't see anything changing. Even if interest rates go up, cash buyers will hoover up the affordable end of the market.

As someone else mentioned, the only way to fight the systems in place is to vote with your feet and stick two fingers up to the elite.

Spend your hard earned overseas. It's a big world out there. If you are young and/or have few responsibilities, then go. 

The web was the game changer. Alternative living is not just for bearded hippies now.

[Bland Unsight]

9 minutes ago, ExiledMatty said:

I can't see anything changing. Even if interest rates go up, cash buyers will hoover up the affordable end of the market.

As someone else mentioned, the only way to fight the systems in place is to vote with your feet and stick two fingers up to the elite.

Spend your hard earned overseas. It's a big world out there. If you are young and/or have few responsibilities, then go. 

The web was the game changer. Alternative living is not just for bearded hippies now.

Just a footnote on this. Cash buyers replacing mortgaged owner-occupiers or buy-to-let investors (who, by definition, have mortgages) is a recipe for deflation. It is cash savings annihilating mortgage debt and reducing the money supply.

If you let mortgage finance play a disproportionate role in the economy then the role of mortgage finance in the economy may become disproportionate. None of this is well understood. There is no sound basis for supposing that this is a system which will deterministically seek a stable equilibrium. Could just be the The Bankers' New Clothes once again.

It ain't over till it's over.

Edited January 19, 2017 by Bland Unsight

[canbuywontbuy]

1 hour ago, Bland Unsight said:

This.

Lots of the troll tw@ts think that the forum is trying to time the market. That's a big part of what makes them ignorant troll tw@ts.

For me, I just want a fair fight, and failing that, a fairer fight.

 

Call me simple, but I just wanted value for money. 

[Mr Banks]

I tuned in and retweeted a lot of the tweets. although I don't have many followers so didn't get much response. I tweeted to the BoE, both chancellor of the Exchequer, the PM and Gavin Barwell but got no responses or any attempt to engage in debate.

[shindigger]

I'm a follower.

Post from the heart when you feel like it.

 

[shindigger]

1 hour ago, ExiledMatty said:

I can't see anything changing. Even if interest rates go up, cash buyers will hoover up the affordable end of the market.

As someone else mentioned, the only way to fight the systems in place is to vote with your feet and stick two fingers up to the elite.

Spend your hard earned overseas. It's a big world out there. If you are young and/or have few responsibilities, then go. 

The web was the game changer. Alternative living is not just for bearded hippies now.

Where in the world does one escape the elites?

[Jugador]

1 hour ago, ExiledMatty said:

I can't see anything changing. Even if interest rates go up, cash buyers will hoover up the affordable end of the market.

As someone else mentioned, the only way to fight the systems in place is to vote with your feet and stick two fingers up to the elite.

Spend your hard earned overseas. It's a big world out there. If you are young and/or have few responsibilities, then go. 

The web was the game changer. Alternative living is not just for bearded hippies now.

They'd rather remain in-situ, moaning about Boomers having it all and them having nothing.

[Assume The Opposite]

On 1/19/2017 at 0:57 PM, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I feel like my eye balls have been ripped from their sockets.

That's how dark it is.

Count, I have two colleagues with BTL properties, and once I explained the sums  with tax changes, Clause 24 etc, you could see that the penny had dropped..

BUT... I know another colleague who is buying a their first house with their partner..

Apparently the bank said it was fine to use a loan as a deposit.. Santander I think. 

I agree that they will do anything to prop prices up,  and maybe the next phase will be to keep IR's to the floor and accept positive inflation as the masses won't do anything anyway.  

If loans can used as deposit then this could go on even longer

Edited January 20, 2017 by Assume The Opposite

[winkie]

What has become more noticeable is that the most expensive places to live are not the best or nicest places to live...... sometimes paying more does not give more, like a better quality or healthier way of life.... Opportunity is  most definitely out there, you do not need to live close to wealth to be wealthy.

[EnglishinWales]

We have already had the dark days. Brexit will crash house prices. The BTL changes will bring them down but Brexit will be what makes them go into free fall I reckon. That is why the establishment was so against it, they know they can't keep it all going once we're out of the single market.

The dark hour was the Brexit vote, we are now heading towards a new dawn as a bankrupt country where land is cheap simply because nobody will want to be here.

[Jugador]

6 hours ago, winkie said:

What has become more noticeable is that the most expensive places to live are not the best or nicest places to live...... sometimes paying more does not give more, like a better quality or healthier way of life.... Opportunity is  most definitely out there, you do not need to live close to wealth to be wealthy.

How true. My son was paying 1k a month for a share of a flat in Clapham. In the streets around were terraced houses with doors almost onto the pavement, going for 2m+. Clapham! He says it's quite the sought after place these days. F-knows why, I formed my view about it 20 years ago and decided it was sh!t, and it hasn't changed (Clapham or my opinion of it).

Opportunity is most certainly out there, via an airport or a train station.  And it's easy but only for the time being, because the Boomer's kids couldn't be arsed getting out of bed and voting.

[giggler000]

On 18/01/2017 at 10:35 PM, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Maybe we're the ones not seeing.

 

Will see what happens this year but its over for me. Its been ten years or one thing after the other. The bankers will see us all ruined rather than take a hit. The collapse will eventually be spectacular...how that pans out for Joe blogs is the big unknown. 

 

 

You already know how this pans out.  They wouldn't take a loss until the masses have nothing, then they'll be happy to default and start again.  Can't have the masses owning stuff - there would be no point in a reset as no one will want their new credit money to buy the stuff they actually need in the next life after reset.

10years is a good run.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

On 19/01/2017 at 11:58 PM, Bland Unsight said:

Just a footnote on this. Cash buyers replacing mortgaged owner-occupiers or buy-to-let investors (who, by definition, have mortgages) is a recipe for deflation. It is cash savings annihilating mortgage debt and reducing the money supply.

If you let mortgage finance play a disproportionate role in the economy then the role of mortgage finance in the economy may become disproportionate. None of this is well understood. There is no sound basis for supposing that this is a system which will deterministically seek a stable equilibrium. Could just be the The Bankers' New Clothes once again.

It ain't over till it's over.

The cash buyers have already gone all it...

[TheCountOfNowhere]

On 20/01/2017 at 0:58 AM, Mr Banks said:

I tuned in and retweeted a lot of the tweets. although I don't have many followers so didn't get much response. I tweeted to the BoE, both chancellor of the Exchequer, the PM and Gavin Barwell but got no responses or any attempt to engage in debate.

Thanks. Much appreciated.

 

I saw out the week but going to reign it in now.

 

Half expecting a knock at the door one night from a banker operative politely telling to shut up.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

44 minutes ago, giggler000 said:

You already know how this pans out.  They wouldn't take a loss until the masses have nothing, then they'll be happy to default and start again.  Can't have the masses owning stuff - there would be no point in a reset as no one will want their new credit money to buy the stuff they actually need in the next life after reset.

10years is a good run.

You don't see default as reset?

 

They won't take a hit...they'll just force more losses onto the people who can afford to pay.

 

Have u noticed the semi enforce  privatr pensions coming in? Auto enrollment. Companies are forced to start a scheme. This is taxation for the benefit of private companies. The thick end of the wedge has been reached.

 

 

[giggler000]

6 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

You don't see default as reset?

Yes, when it's in their favour.  Make the people broke as possible first.  There is no point starting a new digital pound if everyone owns stuff, they need to start again.

 

They won't take a hit...they'll just force more losses onto the people who can afford to pay.

Yep, agreed.  That's what they've done since 2008 and LTO, probably before since this has been growing so long.

 

6 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Have u noticed the semi enforce  privatr pensions coming in? Auto enrollment. Companies are forced to start a scheme. This is taxation for the benefit of private companies. The thick end of the wedge has been reached.

 

 

I noticed only because I opt out, while I can.   After that it's limited company contracting, minimum wage to not have to pay in and then dividends.  If that doesn't work then I'll probably be forced to emigrate and let the local's grumble about immigration like they do over here.

[Little Professor]

On 18/01/2017 at 11:04 PM, zugzwang said:

In 2004 I thought it would be all over by 2008.

in 2008 I thought it would be all over by 2012.

In 2012 I thought it would be all over by 2016.

And now? HPC by 2020... if get 'lucky' and the economy collapses into bankruptcy again.

Oh my days.

It'll never happen. We underestimated how wedded the government are to rampant HPI. They will never let it collapse, even if it means devaluing sterling to zimababwe-levels to keep nominal HPI positive. We've lost.

[Gribble]

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?week=jan8.2017#graph=65354

Stretch the chart to year 2000

More than frightening - to us its manna from heaven. UK is well and truly fu**ed

[nothernsoul]

I think people on this forum, myself included, always knew the system was rigged ,but never thought it was THAT rigged. You expect a crooked football referee to give the opposition a soft penalty, you dont think he will arbitarily award them a goal.

[Society of fools]

2 hours ago, Little Professor said:

It'll never happen. We underestimated how wedded the government are to rampant HPI. They will never let it collapse, even if it means devaluing sterling to zimababwe-levels to keep nominal HPI positive. We've lost.

But its not just the government, its the sheeple.

I sometimes wonder what kind of financial success, perceived or actual, much of the London and the SE United Kingdom, Australian RE owners in Sydney or Melbourne, or NZ's Auckland, or Canada's Vancouver or Toronto, would have in their lives without HPI. For many, it seems to be the only thing actually that goes well in their lives, with House Price inflation replacing the life-satisfaction that used to be gained in previous decades from having say, a really good marriage, or a great relationship with one's children, or a truly absorbing and satisfying hobby.

This to me will be one of the most interesting things about a HPC when it happens: what will be the psychological effects on large swathes of the population, who thought that they were extremely astute, clever and successful, only to be revealed as idiots caught up in a persuasive and long running mania ?

It will certainly make dinner parties much more interesting.

And it will make the reaction to Trump's election or the Brexit vote look like a baby's tantrum in comparison I suspect, and absolutely delicious to watch.

[Correction]

It's all about interest rates innit. The time will come when interest rates have to go up and it ain't going to be pretty

[nome]

8 hours ago, Society of fools said:

But its not just the government, its the sheeple.

I sometimes wonder what kind of financial success, perceived or actual, much of the London and the SE United Kingdom, Australian RE owners in Sydney or Melbourne, or NZ's Auckland, or Canada's Vancouver or Toronto, would have in their lives without HPI. For many, it seems to be the only thing actually that goes well in their lives, with House Price inflation replacing the life-satisfaction that used to be gained in previous decades from having say, a really good marriage, or a great relationship with one's children, or a truly absorbing and satisfying hobby.

This to me will be one of the most interesting things about a HPC when it happens: what will be the psychological effects on large swathes of the population, who thought that they were extremely astute, clever and successful, only to be revealed as idiots caught up in a persuasive and long running mania ?

It will certainly make dinner parties much more interesting.

And it will make the reaction to Trump's election or the Brexit vote look like a baby's tantrum in comparison I suspect, and absolutely delicious to watch.

Superb post, perfectly sums up a lot of thoughts I've had but not quite been able to put them together so concisely and succinctly,

 

HPI is the ONLY ''feel good factor'' that the TPTB can offer the masses... and it's completely illusory  

[long time lurking]

1 hour ago, Correction said:

It's all about interest rates innit. The time will come when interest rates have to go up and it ain't going to be pretty

That could be sooner than most think and it won`t be by choice 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/01/20/yellen-says-fed-should-not-let-economy-run-hot-more-interest-rate-rises-on-the-way/#260a56197fb0

[thewig]

1 hour ago, nome said:

Superb post, perfectly sums up a lot of thoughts I've had but not quite been able to put them together so concisely and succinctly,

 

HPI is the ONLY ''feel good factor'' that the TPTB can offer the masses... and it's completely illusory  

That's the kicker, but none of us are taught this reality are we? they might teach the nature of DEBT and credit and money creation in real schools, but in the establishment brainwashing programme the masses are forced through from an early age, the outcome 99% of the time is someone who believes housing DEBT = wealth. The masses are acting out their programming perfectly by taking on greater and greater levels of DEBT over longer and longer terms, for smaller and smaller piles of cr@ppy bricks. "Get on the ladder before you miss out, innit." is the extent  of 99% of people's analysis on the subject.

Same way most people will be able to rationalise away the fact the #VileBBC reported a building collapsing on 9/11 twenty minutes before it actually happened.

[Arpeggio]

44 minutes ago, thewig said:

Real schools.

Somewhere that if you work harder the better you do.......just before going into the real world of debt, unearned wealth HPI, rent seeking, fake online customer reviews (50%<), massive VAT fraud, HMRC light touch, Tax Credits, mercenaries, fake news and dodgy dossiers.

 

10 hours ago, Society of fools said:

And it will make the reaction to Trump's election or the Brexit vote look like a baby's tantrum in comparison I suspect, and absolutely delicious to watch.

Back to school f*ckers.

Edited January 22, 2017 by Arpeggio
sperling