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Is a full blown currency crisis happening....


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21 minutes ago, spyguy said:

There should be no non EU migration at all.

If there has to be nay it has to be sponsored - 100k and no recourse to benefits for the person or the family.

 

Problem is all the marriages of the 'girl in the next village' of the home country. Then the family come over, rinse and repeat...

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44 minutes ago, Maynardgravy said:

Problem is all the marriages of the 'girl in the next village' of the home country. Then the family come over, rinse and repeat...

They need to sponsor any partner.

There was a very slow, very late recognition of this by the parliamentary meeting.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38200989

Removing recourse to benefits will cure 80% of this.

Euqally calling a halt on migration from countries/cultures where they all end up on benefit. i.e. insit on demonstration that the popel will not be on benefit.

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1 hour ago, AvoidDebt said:

These  are the cml figures for btl house purchases vs mortgages including 2017, 2018 projections. 

Buy-to-let activity levels, thousands

https://www.cml.org.uk/public/images/20161412-market-forecasts-chart-2.gif

Some of these house purchases may well be lendlords buying turds from other lendlords so no new turds created but it does show you that these guys might be battered and bruised but (still) far from being buried. 

Im happy with the end of IO BTL.

 

If people want to put their OO on the line to support a BTL then thats fine.

The MMR rules do impact on leverage levels i.e. you will not be able to get a BTL laon whilst still having a large OO loan.

 

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22 hours ago, spyguy said:

The UK has debt/GDP of ~90% at the mo.

The UK is running a budget deficit of ~6% and current account deficit of ~7%

The budget deficit seems to be stuck there i.e. its structural. At this rate we have ~5 years left before we go into somethign similar to Greece - but without the EU bailout - basically public spending will have to be slashed.

Every one - well my family and my partners workmates (public sector) seem to think things are OK. But Brown really did make his mark on the UK and its not been fully felt yet.

In 10 years time Brown and Balir will be dragged thru the street and hung upside on lampposts.

The systematic desruction of the UK has been decades in the making.  Thatcher off-shored manufacturing to comply to with the EU plan of us being a banking and service sector economy. Good jobs went away.

 In 2007/8 the global financial sector melted down.  Deficit went up. 

IMO the deficit will never go away because we don't have high quality jobs anymore and rely on the banking credit pumps to drive the economy. 

You make some good points about the deficit but don't forget Greece can't create their own sovereign currency has to comply with the ECB to receive cash . If we need a bailout, we have the BOE. Not that a bailout would be used to help any of us. 

As Count points out, the bankers have now won. 

I'm thinking IR's will be staying low while running positive inflation. The people will do nothing, as always. Brexit, Trump etc will probably be made to blame.. 

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4 minutes ago, Assume The Opposite said:

The systematic desruction of the UK has been decades in the making.  Thatcher off-shored manufacturing to comply to with the EU plan of us being a banking and service sector economy. Good jobs went away.

 In 2007/8 the global financial sector melted down.  Deficit went up. 

IMO the deficit will never go away because we don't have high quality jobs anymore and rely on the banking credit pumps to drive the economy. 

You make some good points about the deficit but don't forget Greece can't create their own sovereign currency has to comply with the ECB to receive cash . If we need a bailout, we have the BOE. Not that a bailout would be used to help any of us. 

As Count points out, the bankers have now won. 

I'm thinking IR's will be staying low while running positive inflation. The people will do nothing, as always. Brexit, Trump etc will probably be made to blame.. 

Sure, we can print our own currency.

But we cannot force people to accept it.

The pluses of having printing your own currency are rapidly negated when no-one accepts it.

The dynamics/economics of the pound falling have changed. The world is interconnect that what we win having a cheaper pound, we lose when import rise.

The pounds fall of 20% did nothing for exports.

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BTL is going - or evolving. One thing I see locally - Oxford - is that a lot of family homes are being bought as investments by London professionals/family money, as savings options have been destroyed over last decade. They buy in cash, rent them out but they're not fussed about the yield. I'm not sure how strong a prop this could provide to national prices though.

On EU migration, at least Brexit can be touted as a vision of hope/improvement. What none of the pundits I see gassing on tv ask is "OK, so how is the EU going to reform?" Exactly what is Tim Farron going to do to make things better for UK kids seeing their wages undercut and the perceived total ossification of the ruling elite across Europe?

I see the Maltese premier today saying they must give us an inferior deal, but perhaps Brexit is the reform the EU needs? Brexit is a bag of broken spanners, utterly precarious, but at least it's a development, and Brits might start hoping things can improve once again.

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8 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Sure, we can print our own currency.

But we cannot force people to accept it.

The pluses of having printing your own currency are rapidly negated when no-one accepts it.

The dynamics/economics of the pound falling have changed. The world is interconnect that what we win having a cheaper pound, we lose when import rise.

The pounds fall of 20% did nothing for exports.

Gold trade notes and other gold instruments are being prepared now for re-entry into global trade.

Eventually, nations will begin demanding payment in gold for their goods. At this point the UK will be screwed.

Edited by Errol
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Saw a house listed in the last few days that we offered on a while back, it's pretty much double what we thought it was worth.

When FLS/HTB started some loon paid full price for it after it being on the market/rented out for 3 years.

Looking at the pictures, no work done on it.

It's a proper London style price/flip

I doubt it will sell but from where I am sitting my cash has been hyper inflated away by 50% in 3 years and the bankers are laughing up their sleeves at us.

 

How is this not hyperinfaltion and how has it not destroyed the £££

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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13 minutes ago, Errol said:

Gold trade notes and other gold instruments are being prepared now for re-entry into global trade.

Eventually, nations will begin demanding payment in gold for their goods. At this point the UK will be screwed.

I disagree with this but agree with the principle. The future of global trade will belong to a decentralised cryptocurrency as it removes counterparty risk and would be transferable with little friction.

I get the argument for gold but technology will displace it.

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3 minutes ago, doomed said:

I disagree with this but agree with the principle. The future of global trade will belong to a decentralised cryptocurrency as it removes counterparty risk and would be transferable with little friction.

I get the argument for gold but technology will displace it.

Gold has routinely been confiscated by desperate governments.

When people are buying gold...are they using debit cards or cash ?

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18 minutes ago, doomed said:

I disagree with this but agree with the principle. The future of global trade will belong to a decentralised cryptocurrency as it removes counterparty risk and would be transferable with little friction.

I get the argument for gold but technology will displace it.

They complement each other. It is likely that gold will underpin the system. It isn't actually required to physically move the gold - this is why China is busy buying (or building) the largest gold vaults around the world (New York, London, Hong Kong etc etc).

Bitcoin and similar are in no way a replacement for gold. For a start they lack anonymity and are essentially dependent on technology to exist.

If someone wants to create an anonymous bitcoin, operating like a bearer bond where the owner has sole title and where transactions are not recorded as an inherent part of the system, it would be an improvement.

Edited by Errol
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4 hours ago, spyguy said:

Sure, we can print our own currency.

But we cannot force people to accept it.

The pluses of having printing your own currency are rapidly negated when no-one accepts it.

The dynamics/economics of the pound falling have changed. The world is interconnect that what we win having a cheaper pound, we lose when import rise.

The pounds fall of 20% did nothing for exports.

Actually, you can force people (in your own jurisdiction) to accept it.  That's the whole concept of legal tender.

 

Mandating that people must pay tax in <sovereign currency>  along with fees and fines, as well as making it legally valid to settle debt, means that your own serfs citizens will pretty much always have to deal in the currency you issue.

 

The real problems come when you are trying to buy stuff from outside your sovereign jurisdiction using said currency which you are merrily magicking into existence, and your currency isn't a de-facto reserve or commodity currency like the dollar is.  But it's not as if the UK has a long running balance of payments deficit, is it?

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3 hours ago, Errol said:

They complement each other. It is likely that gold will underpin the system. It isn't actually required to physically move the gold - this is why China is busy buying (or building) the largest gold vaults around the world (New York, London, Hong Kong etc etc).

Bitcoin and similar are in no way a replacement for gold. For a start they lack anonymity and are essentially dependent on technology to exist.

If someone wants to create an anonymous bitcoin, operating like a bearer bond where the owner has sole title and where transactions are not recorded as an inherent part of the system, it would be an improvement.

If you don't possess the Gold, it doesn't really give you the 'safe money' element.  Who's to say that the government of wherever you are storing the gold won't decide to confiscate the gold held in vaults on its territory?

Bitcoin on the other hand can easily be 'held' by the individual and yet transferred to any other individual anywhere on the planet pretty much instantaneously and with next to no transactions cost (vs storing gold and transporting it).  You can also take steps to obfuscate your identity when using Bitcoin, though there will still be a trail for anyone with the resources and legal muscle to look.

If the technology infrastructure used to facilitate Bitcoin somehow collapsed, we'd all have bigger worries than whether or not Bitcoin was usable.  Equally, in the event of 'TEOTWAWKI', gold would also be pretty useless.

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4 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Saw a house listed in the last few days that we offered on a while back, it's pretty much double what we thought it was worth.

When FLS/HTB started some loon paid full price for it after it being on the market/rented out for 3 years.

Looking at the pictures, no work done on it.

It's a proper London style price/flip

I doubt it will sell but from where I am sitting my cash has been hyper inflated away by 50% in 3 years and the bankers are laughing up their sleeves at us.

 

How is this not hyperinfaltion and how has it not destroyed the £££

Hyperinflation = 50% per month.

Superinflation = 50% per year.

e.g. Argentina.

Argentina-CPI-Buenos%20Aires-January2016

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1 hour ago, Sour Mash said:

Actually, you can force people (in your own jurisdiction) to accept it.  That's the whole concept of legal tender.

 

In recent times, both Zimbabwe + USSR shifted to using $ rater than their own toilet paper.

Both those countries had more 'forceful' states than the UK.

Once a currency is debased then the populace moves to using something else.

 

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31 minutes ago, spyguy said:

In recent times, both Zimbabwe + USSR shifted to using $ rater than their own toilet paper.

Both those countries had more 'forceful' states than the UK.

Once a currency is debased then the populace moves to using something else.

 

Like barter. You can confiscate the produce of farms but pretty soon afterwards you have a famine on your hands.

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7 hours ago, spyguy said:

Sure, we can print our own currency.

But we cannot force people to accept it.

it's becoming apparent that the choice for many countries will be to either print or default on sovereign debt. In that case the creditors will prefer printing, so the main thing is to be seen as more credible money printers, compared to others. 

Edited by ManVsRecession
grammar
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