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Is a full blown currency crisis happening....


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10 hours ago, Fromage Frais said:

It may have started then but there has been ample time to address things.

nobody ever turned around a business, team or anything in decline by just taking more debt.

It always looks like they want to tinker > print > declare victory and then bugger off to consult for gGoldman/jp morgan etc.

 

Yes, modern government runs itself like the production of a Hollywood film.  Each scene is analysed to death and each section is put to a focus group to see how popular it is right now re votes and if it is not fun enough then that bit is rewritten and just like Hollywood films it is written and performed for dumbed down for 'Daily mail like'  viewers/voters  and no thinking too far into the future..    Printing some money today keeps them out of the brown stuff for another few months and so on till after an election, then just after the election they are already electioneering for the next one.

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14 hours ago, Gribble said:

PS many  tend to mistakenly think currency pairs revert to some previous average i.e. fluctuate about a general value. In fact they tend to move in long term trends

Very sadly, I would add that many think property values "should" fluctuate around a mean, and "correct".  It ain't happening.  Prices long ago moved on.  A "crash" now is a mere retracement outside of a zombie armageddon scenario.  It's now a question of fingers crossed, be willing to pay current prices minus 20% at best (if a "crash" occurs).   I'm going to offend some here, but waiting for a crash is like someone playing Forex and holding a position and the price has long ago drifted away from where they thought it would go.  No stop loss, just kept holding and holding and holding (paying rent month after month).  This truth stings, and I feel I can say it because I rented for 5 years waiting for a crash that never happened.  £60,000 in rent down the tubes. 

edit to add: please let me be wrong and prices collapse and a new era begins....

Edited by canbuywontbuy
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4 hours ago, canbuywontbuy said:

Very sadly, I would add that many think property values "should" fluctuate around a mean, and "correct"reflect lending practices.  It ain't happening.  PricesLending practices long ago moved on.  A "crash" now is a mere retracement outside of a zombie armageddon scenariodependant upon lending practices.  It's now a question of fingers crossed, be willing to pay current prices minus 20% at best (if a "crash" occurs).   I'm going to offend some here, but waiting for a crash is like someone playing Forex and holding a position and the price has long ago drifted away from where they thought it would go.  No stop loss, just kept holding and holding and holding (paying rent month after month).  Waiting to see what happens when the current changes to BTL lending practices get summed with MMR. This truth stings, and I feel I can say it because I rented for 5 years waiting for a crash that never happenedchanges to lending practices that bankrupted a nation.  £60,000 in rent down the tubes. 

edit to add: please let me be wrong and prices collapse and a new era begins....

Fixed your post.

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9 hours ago, dgul said:

Dunno.  Depends how they react.  Possibly load up on debt first, assuming they'll support debt before the currency, and that wages will rise to make the debt easily affordable.  Then again, that approach might bankrupt you.

No waiting.  Just getting on with life.

Individuals, no.  Corporations -- possibly.  Also, it depends on what other currencies are doing.  The assumption is that the next crisis will be something along the lines of currencies and government debt being places to run from, not run to.  And I'm assuming that the Euro won't last -- it is too fractured to readily survive.  Oh, and don't simply get a Euro account in Germany -- New Deutschmarks (Rentenmark?  Reichsmark would probably be taking it too far...) will only be for Germans.  There would likely also be currency controls.

He pops up every now and then.  IMO he's a Cassandra gifted with everything except timing.

Yes, just getting on with life with ear to the ground, shifting, modifying and diversifying as you go....

Remember not that long ago when a German Mark went further than a pound when spending overseas, perhaps people had to work harder then for each pound they had in their pocket?;)

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2 minutes ago, LittlePig said:

Fixed your post.

Yes.

Only thing thats changed with housing is credit and migrants.

MMR limits mortgages to ~ 4 times earnings.

There will be no BTL, IO or otherwise, going ahead.

Benefit reform will see most of the migrants go. Im already hearing reports that EU migrants who came here to work have not showed up after Xmas - fall of the pond from ~22e -> ~1E over the last few years.

 

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16 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Yes.

Only thing thats changed with housing is credit and migrants.

MMR limits mortgages to ~ 4 times earnings.

There will be no BTL, IO or otherwise, going ahead.

Benefit reform will see most of the migrants go. Im already hearing reports that EU migrants who came here to work have not showed up after Xmas - fall of the pond from ~22e -> ~1E over the last few years.

 

Odd that you shouldf say that.  The drive to work is much easier since xmas and i mean MUCH !!!

1 know of 1 family that has relocated to Germany as of January 1st, that's 2 school spaces freed up.

1 know of one bloke with a French wife and he's still angry as f**k.

Had a nice German fellow on twitter tell me yesterday that Brits were racist and full of hate, to be fare to him after a few tweets he could grasp my ( British ) view point that the country was at breaking point and the infrastructure/system in need of over haul before immigrants were allowed in, I told him, we dont hate the immigrants, we hate the system.  Said he'd been abused ( i.e. GO HOME ) statements but as I pointed out there are bigots and idiots in every country, these people are a minority.  He also said it was becoming difficult for him and his family ( British  kids ) to stay ion the UK and was worried he'd be forced to leave.  The down side of this is all the good people will leave and all the scum-bags will stay as long as possible and create on hell of a mess.

No one should be forced to leave but it should be much harder for spongers to live for free.  

I still dont believe for 1 minute we will truly BrExit and the immigration will stop, but I hope to be proved wrong.

 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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14 hours ago, cognitive dissonance said:

How can you say that a full blown currency crisis is happening when the £ has risen against the $ 2.85% in 1 day ;)

But yes I agree with most things you post Count, so I'm ready for an armed insurrection but who else is? Let's get together in the Deep Web now :ph34r:

Hey, thanks for the vote of confidence, I'd hope after 10 years of watching this s**t happening then i'd have something worthwhile to say, saying that I have not got a clue anymore what is going on nor what to do next.  That might explain this thread, just exploring what people are thinking now.  There is much scope for a lot of bother in the UK now.  Carney has really f**ked people IMHO

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10 minutes ago, AvoidDebt said:

I'm counting on this too so hope you're right but aren't new BTL sales still running at 6k per month? 

They are mainly remortgages.

AFAICT the number of new BTL loans is pretty low.

IO BTL is or should be zilch.

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10 minutes ago, AvoidDebt said:

I'm counting on this too so hope you're right but aren't new BTL sales still running at 6k per month? 

It's about the only hope we have now.

 

It seemed a few weeks ago the Theresa May had realised what was going on and that someone had to rebalance.

 

Whether or not she actualyl does somethjng about this, or is allowed to is another matter.

 

The UK is a corrupt basket case now, what comes next is anyones guess.  The time for managing the bubble down to sensible levels and building a productive econony are long gone now thanks to those evil c***s osborne and Cameron.

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16 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Odd that you shouldf say that.  The drive to work is much easier since xmas and i mean MUCH !!!

1 know of 1 family that has relocated to Germany as of January 1st, that's 2 school spaces freed up.

1 know of one bloke with a French wife and he's still angry as f**k.

Had a nice German fellow on twitter tell me yesterday that Brits were racist and full of hate, to be fare to him after a few tweets he could grasp my ( British ) view point that the country was at breaking point and the infrastructure/system in need of over haul before immigrants were allowed in, I told him, we dont hate the immigrants, we hate the system.  Said he'd been abused ( i.e. GO HOME ) statements but as I pointed out there are bigots and idiots in every country, these people are a minority.  He also said it was becoming difficult for him and his family ( British  kids ) to stay ion the UK and was worried he'd be forced to leave.  The down side of this is all the good people will leave and all the scum-bags will stay as long as possible and create on hell of a mess.

No one should be forced to leave but it should be much harder for spongers to live for free.  

I still dont believe for 1 minute we will truly BrExit and the immigration will stop, but I hope to be proved wrong.

 

The problem is not the systems - its the UK non contributory benefits.

I have no problem with FOWork - its great! Move to an EU country and work; no recourse to benefits. No Job then fkcoff. Thats fair

Its the access to benefits Im fcked off with. I fcked off with UK nationals claiming benefits without working. Im livid that half of Romania are on them.

Its sad that the EUers who ought to be welcome are legging it. We are now left with the trash//familes.

Im really fcked off with half of EE being here on tax credits.

Id been tlaking about the problem with  a Spanish fmaily member before Brexit. He did not beleive it. On his visit we walked into town (all the people talking were EEers) then went to the park with kids (80% EEer) then Tesco 50% of shoppers). He really could not believe the numbers.

For most EUers migrants used to mean a few Africans hawking on the streets or foreign builders. To be fair, some countries get a taste - Roma in Paris + Barca. But none get anywhere close to whats happened in the UK.

 

 

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28 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Odd that you shouldf say that.  The drive to work is much easier since xmas and i mean MUCH !!!

1 know of 1 family that has relocated to Germany as of January 1st, that's 2 school spaces freed up.

1 know of one bloke with a French wife and he's still angry as f**k.

Had a nice German fellow on twitter tell me yesterday that Brits were racist and full of hate, to be fare to him after a few tweets he could grasp my ( British ) view point that the country was at breaking point and the infrastructure/system in need of over haul before immigrants were allowed in, I told him, we dont hate the immigrants, we hate the system.  Said he'd been abused ( i.e. GO HOME ) statements but as I pointed out there are bigots and idiots in every country, these people are a minority.  He also said it was becoming difficult for him and his family ( British  kids ) to stay ion the UK and was worried he'd be forced to leave.  The down side of this is all the good people will leave and all the scum-bags will stay as long as possible and create on hell of a mess.

No one should be forced to leave but it should be much harder for spongers to live for free.  

I still dont believe for 1 minute we will truly BrExit and the immigration will stop, but I hope to be proved wrong.

 

If the UKGOV just draws the line in the sand and says: Anyone working and supporting themselves is likely to stay.

Anyone in receipt of benefit will have to support themselves and pay 5k per kid for schooling and pay for medical care. Thats what happened to families kids in other countries.

Not say go. Just say if you want to stay than you just have to be supporting yourself.

 

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27 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Odd that you shouldf say that.  The drive to work is much easier since xmas and i mean MUCH !!!

1 know of 1 family that has relocated to Germany as of January 1st, that's 2 school spaces freed up.

1 know of one bloke with a French wife and he's still angry as f**k.

Had a nice German fellow on twitter tell me yesterday that Brits were racist and full of hate, to be fare to him after a few tweets he could grasp my ( British ) view point that the country was at breaking point and the infrastructure/system in need of over haul before immigrants were allowed in, I told him, we dont hate the immigrants, we hate the system.  Said he'd been abused ( i.e. GO HOME ) statements but as I pointed out there are bigots and idiots in every country, these people are a minority.  He also said it was becoming difficult for him and his family ( British  kids ) to stay ion the UK and was worried he'd be forced to leave.  The down side of this is all the good people will leave and all the scum-bags will stay as long as possible and create on hell of a mess.

No one should be forced to leave but it should be much harder for spongers to live for free.  

I still dont believe for 1 minute we will truly BrExit and the immigration will stop, but I hope to be proved wrong.

 

The issue afaict is those that re here for the free ride. Meanwhile those who have, and continue, to pay into the system are getting screwed over. House prices out of reach, pension gone, can't get to see a doctor, kids being loaded with debt to get an education, kids can't get work, nevermind a well paid career, see rellies in hospital and think third world?  

I feel that people are actually waking up.  On the tube and train system in London I'm seeing a lot of resentment and anger.  Oh, and that's gone up, despite the promise made by Khan (my dad was a bus driver, don't you know) the mayor of London that ticket prices would not rise.

The impact of this, and I would think they have the figures, is that productivity has gone through the floor.  People have spotted that the emperor has no clothes.  Tptb have begun to realise that this particular game is up.  As count says, uncharted waters.  

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20 minutes ago, spyguy said:

If the UKGOV just draws the line in the sand and says: Anyone working and supporting themselves is likely to stay.

Anyone in receipt of benefit will have to support themselves and pay 5k per kid for schooling and pay for medical care. Thats what happened to families kids in other countries.

Not say go. Just say if you want to stay than you just have to be supporting yourself.

 

99% of us will be happy with that...and a closed door policy for the duration./

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3 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

99% of us will be happy with that...and a closed door policy for the duration./

There should be no non EU migration at all.

If there has to be nay it has to be sponsored - 100k and no recourse to benefits for the person or the family.

 

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46 minutes ago, spyguy said:

They are mainly remortgages.

AFAICT the number of new BTL loans is pretty low.

IO BTL is or should be zilch.

These  are the cml figures for btl house purchases vs mortgages including 2017, 2018 projections. 

Buy-to-let activity levels, thousands

https://www.cml.org.uk/public/images/20161412-market-forecasts-chart-2.gif

Some of these house purchases may well be lendlords buying turds from other lendlords so no new turds created but it does show you that these guys might be battered and bruised but (still) far from being buried. 

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