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When will landlords hit peak moan?

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Given Clause 24 is being phased in slowly and that several other factors like Basel III will compound its effects, I just wondered when you think the squeals will hit their peak?

Personally I've really been taken a back by the level of ignorance out there. The few landlords I know seem almost completely unawares of the impact Clause 24 will have. They're like sitting ducks. 

 

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All those i speak to who will be badly effected have no clue about it.
I think the news stories will increase over the year, and those starting to sell up (the early birds) will start to unload around April time.

From that point onwards it will increase dramatically. So we might even see a spring bounce this year maybe even continued HPI until May onwards when it should fall back dramatically and then keep falling.

The real volume fire-sales will be April 2018 when the tax bill actually arrives. 

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Probably timed perfectly with a horrendous natural disaster killing thousands in a poor country, so they can make even bigger arses of themselves with self absorbed rants totally ignoring wider humanity.

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My first thought is that the amount of moaning is depends on the number of BTL landlords moaning, the amount of moaning they do and the range of media they use to promulgate their moaning (i.e. I think that if you moan to a fellow BTL landlord at an RLA get together, and tweet your moan, and post it on PovertyLater, and write to your MP, and post comments on the Guardian then that is not just one moan, even if you are just making the same point over and over again).

At the moment we have a small number of landlords doing a lot of moaning and disseminating it via a variety of channels. However, these hardcore moaners are already reducing in number, doing less moaning and they're not getting out as much.

I think that in about 18 months time we'll start to get the second wave with lots of small-time BTL landlords doing quite a bit of moaning, but mostly to their nearest and dearest only, and in person, obvs. I think it's tricky to call whether the second peak will or won't surpass the first but I could buy the idea that we may have already seen peak moaning.

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Will get seriously bad from Jan 2019, into about 2022.  By then there will be better things to moan about, so their moans will be less prominent.

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14 hours ago, Bland Unsight said:

My first thought is that the amount of moaning is depends on the number of BTL landlords moaning, the amount of moaning they do and the range of media they use to promulgate their moaning (i.e. I think that if you moan to a fellow BTL landlord at an RLA get together, and tweet your moan, and post it on PovertyLater, and write to your MP, and post comments on the Guardian then that is not just one moan, even if you are just making the same point over and over again).

At the moment we have a small number of landlords doing a lot of moaning and disseminating it via a variety of channels. However, these hardcore moaners are already reducing in number, doing less moaning and they're not getting out as much.

I think that in about 18 months time we'll start to get the second wave with lots of small-time BTL landlords doing quite a bit of moaning, but mostly to their nearest and dearest only, and in person, obvs. I think it's tricky to call whether the second peak will or won't surpass the first but I could buy the idea that we may have already seen peak moaning.

As an avid tracker of Landlord moaning I agree with all that. The small band of Internet/letter writing moaners are reducing in number with their current mood being one of anger at those amongst them who are speaking out either against their campaign tactics or with some understanding of HMRCs motivations. 

The Tenant Tax campaign is dead having barely registered in the first place.

There will be a second wave of moaning that may involve greater numbers, may be jumped on by the current suspects and may involve having to suffer seeing their mugs in the Telegraph one last time* but the situation will be too far advanced by then and nobody will give the slightest of f*cks.

*Actually I'd like to see one last article of a once leveraged goon setting up home in a caravan on Barry Island.

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16 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

All those i speak to who will be badly effected have no clue about it.
I think the news stories will increase over the year, and those starting to sell up (the early birds) will start to unload around April time.

From that point onwards it will increase dramatically. So we might even see a spring bounce this year maybe even continued HPI until May onwards when it should fall back dramatically and then keep falling.

The real volume fire-sales will be April 2018 when the tax bill actually arrives. 

I agree

Its quite worrying when you have a chat with someone who has three properties and you know more than they do about the incoming changes.

 

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