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Chrippie

How far do peeps think PCL will fall

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3 hours ago, fru-gal said:

There is no way the Government will let house prices fall much. They will bring in new props to keep prices high imo or reverse the stamp duty changes.

Not sure I agree with this - used to be true in my view, but the politics have changed. Home owners vote tory, renters vote labour. A significant number of owners of PCL don't even have a vote as they're foreign. Create a generation that can never own a home and you're creating a generation of natural Labour voters. Not good politics for a Tory government to do that, and I think they've finally woken up to it; I think they want prices to fall now. Plus even boomers I speak to are more relaxed about house prices falling as they know its the only way their kids and grandkids are ever going to get a house. I have 4 kids and live in London. For them to have a similar lifestyle to mine they between them are going to need to come up with millions and millions to put into property. Not going to happen. Even if I owned a home therefore I'd want prices to come down (unless I was overleveraged etc).

The politics of cutting stamp duty at the top would be terrible at the moment. So I suspect therefore that if they do do away with it it will be replaced by something else so it can't be spun as a tax cut for millionaires.

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1 hour ago, hotairmail said:

It's the same with construction. Every site comes under its own limited liability structure so that it cannot bring down the centre.

Personally, I think (like charity structures) limited liability is a scourge and the opposite of my word is my bond.

Of course your right but it should not really be the case.

Limited liability should stop abuse of credit as you should understand at all time that this entity could go under at any time and you will loose your money ergo the trust should be earned over time.

One of the reasons the US housing market can correct much faster than our own is their non recourse funding in many areas.  When you lend for a house there you lend just on the house so in a sane capitalist system you would be a moron to lend more than the house is really worth/make sure you get a nice large deposit.

In our system we have the same crazy lending but people will loose everything or at least go right to bankruptcy and be chased through courts... much better to just say here are the keys.

On the other side of the spectrum you could have debtors prisons like North Africa where for example an friends brother had a thriving shop and then along came the revolution and business dead for months and looting etc.  The payments on the business loan did not and so found himself looking at prison though no real fault of his own as it was force majure .

Debt is like crack when the dealers want their money of you the user they knee cap you, when they loose a boat with 10 million on they dont give a toss as they have 100 others.

All loans should be non recourse or limited to a specific asset so lent with full understanding of the risk.  No personal guarantees, no Amigo loan bull and the worst or the worst the state backstopping mal-investment.

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12 hours ago, Kiwi_Muncher said:

I think negative sentiment will affect all sorts of buyers....

1. FTB - heavily affected by sentiment, once drops consistent and going on for a few months, will be reluctant to step in and buy

2. FTB with offer of BOMAD loan/gift - both parties affected by sentiment, so ditto.

3. Wealthy buyers - wont want to lose money on a bad deal, ditto

4. Largescale investors/developers - if still iquid, will tread carefully as afraid of being burnt

5. Foreign investors - unlkely to invest in a falling market.

I can see many people, no matter how much money they have, buying in a falling market

All really good reasons, but all assume that sterling maintains its value.  Government won't wait to see if bank stress testing theory works, or allow anything like a 30% drop in property without printing as many billions as it takes to prop up the market.  The signal has been that currency has to take the hit, probably since long before 2008, so holding cash could be seen as riskier than property/other real assets.  The economy can't recover so it looks a really unstable McCawberish situation, but nobody knows how long it can teeter on. If there's a crash next week I should probably buy PMs/property/anything while I can, if I can; if it goes on for decades I should borrow and spend as much as possible for as long as possible. But being prudent with cash or having nominal assets leaves me with nothing.   

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59 minutes ago, Sterling Loss said:

All really good reasons, but all assume that sterling maintains its value.  Government won't wait to see if bank stress testing theory works, or allow anything like a 30% drop in property without printing as many billions as it takes to prop up the market.  The signal has been that currency has to take the hit, probably since long before 2008, so holding cash could be seen as riskier than property/other real assets.  The economy can't recover so it looks a really unstable McCawberish situation, but nobody knows how long it can teeter on. If there's a crash next week I should probably buy PMs/property/anything while I can, if I can; if it goes on for decades I should borrow and spend as much as possible for as long as possible. But being prudent with cash or having nominal assets leaves me with nothing.   

But who is being forced to hold sterling assets? My best guess is that the loss of property wealth will be a sterling devaluation game and, as such, anyone whose asset allocation model avoids the "home bias" trap does well. Those who have all their eggs in the property will do worst because houses are sterling denominated and illiquid. But a big sterling cash exposure is no disaster because you can switch to whatever you want, whenever you want.

As you get a bigger and bigger proportion of savers who can't afford to buy a house, the relative merits of other investment assets will also start to filter through to the wider public. Housing's outperformance won't last forever and, in a lot of places, is a myth anyway. People cottoning onto that is another potential negative sentiment trigger.

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31 minutes ago, Darby Ram said:

But who is being forced to hold sterling assets? My best guess is that the loss of property wealth will be a sterling devaluation game and, as such, anyone whose asset allocation model avoids the "home bias" trap does well. Those who have all their eggs in the property will do worst because houses are sterling denominated and illiquid. But a big sterling cash exposure is no disaster because you can switch to whatever you want, whenever you want.

As you get a bigger and bigger proportion of savers who can't afford to buy a house, the relative merits of other investment assets will also start to filter through to the wider public. Housing's outperformance won't last forever and, in a lot of places, is a myth anyway. People cottoning onto that is another potential negative sentiment trigger.

Many pensioners have fixed incomes and have no choice. People who want to preserve the value of their savings rather than 'invest' in increasingly rigged markets have nowhere to go.  I think the government cannot tame the monster it has created, and will react strongly to nominal falls in property; you may well be right that relative performance of housing will be worse in a business as usual economy, and I think that's what the government would like. I suspect I'm much more pessimistic than you are, housing will crash the system rather than lead to a rebalancing. There's too much debt. For me, it's a question of what a crash will look like rather than what will be the best performing asset.

What other assets do you have in mind?

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41 minutes ago, Sterling Loss said:

Many pensioners have fixed incomes and have no choice. People who want to preserve the value of their savings rather than 'invest' in increasingly rigged markets have nowhere to go.  I think the government cannot tame the monster it has created, and will react strongly to nominal falls in property; you may well be right that relative performance of housing will be worse in a business as usual economy, and I think that's what the government would like. I suspect I'm much more pessimistic than you are, housing will crash the system rather than lead to a rebalancing. There's too much debt. For me, it's a question of what a crash will look like rather than what will be the best performing asset.

What other assets do you have in mind?

A HPC will lead to fresh rebalancing debt.  Lower risk.  Banks booking immediate profits.

There's also £Trillions of owner-outright/owner-high equity wealth.

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8 minutes ago, Venger said:

A HPC will lead to fresh rebalancing debt.  Lower risk.  Banks booking immediate profits.

There's also £Trillions of owner-outright/owner-high equity wealth.

Downsize now... Put the proceeds in our 5% savings account. The boomers will be sh#tting bricks trying to sell up.

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21 minutes ago, Venger said:

A HPC will lead to fresh rebalancing debt.  Lower risk.  Banks booking immediate profits.

There's also £Trillions of owner-outright/owner-high equity wealth.

That all sounds good...but via how many millions unemployed, if HPC can't happen in isolation, and government doesn't go after the wealthy (and I don't think it ever has)?

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23 minutes ago, Sterling Loss said:

That all sounds good...but via how many millions unemployed, if HPC can't happen in isolation, and government doesn't go after the wealthy (and I don't think it ever has)?

Housing is not the entire economy.   

How many businesses and jobs have not come into being because of extreme HPI - people unable to raise the scratch to pursue their commercial ambitions.

How many other businesses are now competing for lower amount of disposable income because housing/BTLers feast on so much?

Oldie with 9 houses in London I know of spends virtually no money on herself.  All the rent put away into savings to feel rich and magnificent, combined with £ms of asset wealth.

Human shielding nonsense imo.   Not a hostage to the HPIers.    HPC and even better economy after it bottoms out.

Edited by Venger

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27 minutes ago, Venger said:

Housing is not the entire economy.   Yes, it's secondary to the real economy (or should be).

How many businesses and jobs have not come into being because of extreme HPI - people unable to raise the scratch to pursue their commercial ambitions. Countless thousands.

How many other businesses are now competing for lower amount of disposable income because housing/BTLers feast on so much? Countless thousands.

Oldie with 9 houses in London I know of spends virtually no money on herself.  All the rent put away into savings to feel rich and magnificent, combined with £ms of asset wealth. She's a striver and completely safe.

Human shielding nonsense imo.   Not a hostage to the HPIers.    HPC and even better economy after it bottoms out.

Someone has to pay for the bad debts to have a better economy. The debtors don't have the assets. Your oldie friend is politically untouchable. That leaves you and me, among many others!  We're not human shields, we're fall guys. Maybe there is a glimmer of hope in the increasing awareness that HPI has been  destructive for the reasons you give, Trying to remain on topic, surely people must realise that 20 times gross  average income for a pokey London flat is not sane.  But a significant engineered correction means reversing the voting habits of 40 years, home owners and MSM will not go quietly, and it's arguably too late to achieve. There may be worse to come.

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37 minutes ago, Sterling Loss said:

Someone has to pay for the bad debts to have a better economy. The debtors don't have the assets. Your oldie friend is politically untouchable. That leaves you and me, among many others!  We're not human shields, we're fall guys. Maybe there is a glimmer of hope in the increasing awareness that HPI has been  destructive for the reasons you give, Trying to remain on topic, surely people must realise that 20 times gross  average income for a pokey London flat is not sane.  But a significant engineered correction means reversing the voting habits of 40 years, home owners and MSM will not go quietly, and it's arguably too late to achieve. There may be worse to come.

She is politically untouchable?  For having 8-9 houses (can't recall exact number) in London?  In her 80s.  One way or another those houses will come to market at some point, although in her case I don't think there is any debt involved.  Houses acquired through inheritances and divorces from decades past. 

IMO others will sell, and sell for less.  Inc older owners, BTLers, property investors.

Were the homeowners politically untouchable in 1990?  Older owners sold into reality at lower prices, allowing younger people (many of who cheered on HPC) to upsize.

Quote

'We are invincible. We will never give up.'
'Well, you've proved fairly vincible before.' He sighed, remembering the
history of this place.
'We were betrayed!' the woman shouted. 'Our armies never were defeated;
we were -'
'Stabbed in the back; I know.'
'Yes! But our spirit will never die. We -'
'Aw, shut up!' He said, swinging his legs off the narrow bed and facing the
woman. 'I've heard that shit before. "We was robbed." "The folks back home
let us down." "The media were against us."
Shit...'

-Use of Weaons

Ahh the core-voters of foreverHPI mad-gainz protection.

Didn't stop Gov making hard turn on the BTLers (S24) which many BTLers are in an EGO-SHOCK meltdown about - not all for again met a few people recently totally unaware S24 as they outlined their future BTLing plans to me, rubbing their chins with their own £400K valued homes, BTL planning, and seeing us all on the rented side. 

There are other people in the market, including the banks, and EAs in time to come, who have a certain interest in getting fresh debt on properties, at some point, it seems to me.  So many older owners sat on mad-gainz beyond belief.

MSM will change.  Journalists get replaced.  New business interest to push different things, into the HPC.

Always leaves me in disbelief when people claim worse to come - when I look at housing market from renter-saver side perspective.  I've got nothing to be afraid of whatsoever.  Helping pals move into their new rental soon, including one room that I've seen from pics has awful chintzy coloured carpet from the 80s/90s and a kitchen the same.   Lower house prices, more money for new homeowners/upsizers to spend in the economy.   Instead of protecting massive homeowner/BTLer/property investor wealth, in the name of a few more recent homeowenrs who have overborrowed/BOMAD bought and outbid everyone else in the market.

It's not too late - it's time to begin.  Last few years has been all about complacent BTLers and BOMADs and property investors doubling down into property.  About positioning to make young people Generation Rent Forever (because they don't matter) at ever higher buying prices.  It's all positioned.  Knives laid against and inside the body of an overextended worn out enemy.  They went in for the killer blow, but overreached, and the blow doesn't knock us out, it knocks them out - the foreverHPIers and BTLers sat on mad-gainz and complacent. :)

On 8/7/2016 at 11:46 PM, Bland Unsight said:

I've been reading David Smith's book Something Will Turn Up. It's really a memoir of his career as a commentator on economic matters, as an economics correspondent at The Times, and finally as the economics editor.

What occurred to me was that certain economic structures which are considered inviolable are quickly broken and forgotten.

In the late 1970s it was union power which seemed to be a concrete fact of economic life.

I wonder whether the cycle of extending credit to housing in the hope of fostering recovery is getting close to the end of its time.

I accept that your question is more reasonable, especially given the MPC action in the last week, but maybe we are getting closer to a point where the game is up for inflating house prices in the hope that it will make things better when it evidently just keeps making things worse.

There is no HPC forum point of view, but one of the strains of thinking on the forum is adequately captured by the Herb Stein aphorism that "if something cannot go on forever, it will stop".

I accept that the track record has shown that the government always leans towards monetary measures and that as a consequence house prices are inflated as we pursue a return to growth via monetary means, but we are reaching a point where continuing that policy is baking terrible consequences into the cake. Median households won't own their homes and they won't have any material pension provision either.

At some point we are going to have to change tack on this.

 

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12 hours ago, Venger said:

She is politically untouchable?  For having 8-9 houses (can't recall exact number) in London?  In her 80s.  One way or another those houses will come to market at some point, although in her case I don't think there is any debt involved.  Houses acquired through inheritances and divorces from decades past. 

IMO others will sell, and sell for less.  Inc older owners, BTLers, property investors.

Were the homeowners politically untouchable in 1990?  Older owners sold into reality at lower prices, allowing younger people (many of who cheered on HPC) to upsize.

Ahh the core-voters of foreverHPI mad-gainz protection.

Didn't stop Gov making hard turn on the BTLers (S24) which many BTLers are in an EGO-SHOCK meltdown about - not all for again met a few people recently totally unaware S24 as they outlined their future BTLing plans to me, rubbing their chins with their own £400K valued homes, BTL planning, and seeing us all on the rented side. 

There are other people in the market, including the banks, and EAs in time to come, who have a certain interest in getting fresh debt on properties, at some point, it seems to me.  So many older owners sat on mad-gainz beyond belief.

MSM will change.  Journalists get replaced.  New business interest to push different things, into the HPC.

Always leaves me in disbelief when people claim worse to come - when I look at housing market from renter-saver side perspective.  I've got nothing to be afraid of whatsoever.  Helping pals move into their new rental soon, including one room that I've seen from pics has awful chintzy coloured carpet from the 80s/90s and a kitchen the same.   Lower house prices, more money for new homeowners/upsizers to spend in the economy.   Instead of protecting massive homeowner/BTLer/property investor wealth, in the name of a few more recent homeowenrs who have overborrowed/BOMAD bought and outbid everyone else in the market.

It's not too late - it's time to begin.  Last few years has been all about complacent BTLers and BOMADs and property investors doubling down into property.  About positioning to make young people Generation Rent Forever (because they don't matter) at ever higher buying prices.  It's all positioned.  Knives laid against and inside the body of an overextended worn out enemy.  They went in for the killer blow, but overreached, and the blow doesn't knock us out, it knocks them out - the foreverHPIers and BTLers sat on mad-gainz and complacent. :)

 

Having seen a revolution first hand its quite amazing how quick it can go.  From Riots > storming council buildings > shots being fired > more demonstrations > army being called in and that pivotal decision..will the army will fire on its own people. 

Not to compare our economy to an Arab economy just yet but if it gets worse we already have the death of upward mobility when it comes to housing, the death of secure employment and a feeling (to some) that the powers that be wish to pack the world onto a island at the expense of those whom live here.

The government should be ecstatic over Brexit as it gives them the opportunity to blame it for hard decisions which need to be made.

How lucky they where that the riots of 2011 did not spread  > leading to something much worse.  Surely with inflation to come the situation has not got better for the same folks to kick off again? 

I think we have reached a point of helplessness to many so action has to be taken everyone has to have something to loose your cannot simply say I am alright jack stop the game now.

Some in government understand this to an extent but i dont think the BOE does, QE and ZIRP will bring us to our knees.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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17 hours ago, hotairmail said:

Good points.

I have great sympathy that all 'lending' involve shared risk like Islamic finance.

Those who don't like that idea fear that would constrain credit and would rather have recourse to assets and personal guarantees.  Although if that were the case, presumably returns would rise.

Interestingly I have yet to visit a Arab country without  a massive housing bubble.  A big chunk of the Arab spring was down to this as a baby boom (ours older theirs under 30 yrs old) pushes through the system only able to build in their fathers garden despite a better education.

Surat al Baqarah - The Cow

"Those who consume interest cannot stand [on the Day of Resurrection] except as one stands who is being beaten by Satan into insanity. That is because they say, "Trade is [just] like interest." But Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest. So whoever has received an admonition from his Lord and desists may have what is past, and his affair rests with Allah . But whoever returns to [dealing in interest or usury] - those are the companions of the Fire; they will abide eternally therein."

With regard to central London is down to IR's its clear the stamp duty changes and S24 are designed to take 20-30% off prices and PCL has a high number of cash owners so it wont contaminate the banking system.

From Henry Prior et al on twitter it looks like a third there already and down another 10-15% next year.  We then have the Trump factor I really hope he goes for it and gets those rates up.  This will have a multiplier effect on the tax changes made.  Over 3% IRS and we are back to a crash up to 50% (over this inflation adjusted) Carney will pick a fight and resign before this point IMHO.

once we get to PCL 20-30% down the outskirts will cave as those who can move inward.


 

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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19 hours ago, Venger said:

She is politically untouchable?  For having 8-9 houses (can't recall exact number) in London?  In her 80s.  One way or another those houses will come to market at some point, although in her case I don't think there is any debt involved.  Houses acquired through inheritances and divorces from decades past. 

IMO others will sell, and sell for less.  Inc older owners, BTLers, property investors.

Were the homeowners politically untouchable in 1990?  Older owners sold into reality at lower prices, allowing younger people (many of who cheered on HPC) to upsize.

Ahh the core-voters of foreverHPI mad-gainz protection.

Didn't stop Gov making hard turn on the BTLers (S24) which many BTLers are in an EGO-SHOCK meltdown about - not all for again met a few people recently totally unaware S24 as they outlined their future BTLing plans to me, rubbing their chins with their own £400K valued homes, BTL planning, and seeing us all on the rented side. 

There are other people in the market, including the banks, and EAs in time to come, who have a certain interest in getting fresh debt on properties, at some point, it seems to me.  So many older owners sat on mad-gainz beyond belief.

MSM will change.  Journalists get replaced.  New business interest to push different things, into the HPC.

Always leaves me in disbelief when people claim worse to come - when I look at housing market from renter-saver side perspective.  I've got nothing to be afraid of whatsoever.  Helping pals move into their new rental soon, including one room that I've seen from pics has awful chintzy coloured carpet from the 80s/90s and a kitchen the same.   Lower house prices, more money for new homeowners/upsizers to spend in the economy.   Instead of protecting massive homeowner/BTLer/property investor wealth, in the name of a few more recent homeowenrs who have overborrowed/BOMAD bought and outbid everyone else in the market.

It's not too late - it's time to begin.  Last few years has been all about complacent BTLers and BOMADs and property investors doubling down into property.  About positioning to make young people Generation Rent Forever (because they don't matter) at ever higher buying prices.  It's all positioned.  Knives laid against and inside the body of an overextended worn out enemy.  They went in for the killer blow, but overreached, and the blow doesn't knock us out, it knocks them out - the foreverHPIers and BTLers sat on mad-gainz and complacent. :)

 

I hope you're right and I'm wrong, and you make a sane case for a return to reality, although I'm not sure what you think will happen to bank solvency in your scenario..  Of course economies change and some established interests disappear; there are indications that HPI is finally being ditched by government because it has become so obviously destructive.  But the deep restorative recession we needed in 2001-ish did not happen, as if an earthquake has been delayed, and the pressure has been building and stoked further by HPI.  When/if the earthquake comes, it's not clear who will be sitting on the fault line, and it's the property rich establishment who decide. The choice is between a reset of printing/recession, or the current policy of not choosing and trying to muddle through to keep things going. I don't think anyone knows how this will play out, at least there are some interesting viewpoints.

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On 1/12/2017 at 9:40 PM, giggler000 said:

Going by the National debt (http://www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk/), when is it time to ask, who's gonna prop the glubbermint?

If PCL falls 60%+ just imagine what north of M25 will fall by.  I see all those helpful polish builders returning home.

If PCL falls 60% .... what will cause that 60% fall? Glubbermint will not sleep till it falls 60%.

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On 13/01/2017 at 4:31 PM, Chrippie said:

Not sure I agree with this - used to be true in my view, but the politics have changed. Home owners vote tory, renters vote labour. A significant number of owners of PCL don't even have a vote as they're foreign. Create a generation that can never own a home and you're creating a generation of natural Labour voters. Not good politics for a Tory government to do that, and I think they've finally woken up to it; I think they want prices to fall now. Plus even boomers I speak to are more relaxed about house prices falling as they know its the only way their kids and grandkids are ever going to get a house. I have 4 kids and live in London. For them to have a similar lifestyle to mine they between them are going to need to come up with millions and millions to put into property. Not going to happen. Even if I owned a home therefore I'd want prices to come down (unless I was overleveraged etc).

The politics of cutting stamp duty at the top would be terrible at the moment. So I suspect therefore that if they do do away with it it will be replaced by something else so it can't be spun as a tax cut for millionaires.

The only way they can stop them now it to PRINT.

More printing will cause the £ to collapse further.

The poor will get angrier.

The middle classes will get angrier

The £ might collapse completely.  

A house will be worthless if that happens.

They've shot their bolt.  The people who needed to get out will be long gone now...It's time for the housing market to take it's loses, expect it wont be the rich/bankers taking teh hit....

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3 hours ago, Fairyland said:

If PCL falls 60% .... what will cause that 60% fall? Glubbermint will not sleep till it falls 60%.

SW3 looks like it's already dropped 60%.  What caused that ?  No fecker buying, that's what.

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2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

SW3 looks like it's already dropped 60%.  What caused that ?  No fecker buying, that's what.

Consistent with my 90%+ prediction in real terms.

 

Sterling loss. Are you citing bank insolvency as being positive for house prices then?

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Thought i might resurrect this thread, see if anyone's views have changed.

I'm probably a little more bearish on the overall declines that are likely in London than I was given that you are already looking at c. 40% falls marked to market in some areas from peak and some of the biggest negative catalysts still haven't really kicked in (eg IR rises). My guess is we will see 50-60%+ declines in terraced property in PCL, with luxury flats doing worse than that (maybe down 70-90%). I do think it'll take longer to fully play out too though. My guess is we are still 2-3 years from a bottom. 

Couple of things that i didn't foresee a year ago. 

  • Unexplained Wealth Orders, and the fear that foreigners may have that laundered cash in the UK is not as safe as they thought. 
  • The election result last year and the extent to which it would catalyse a change in the zeitgeist against HPI forever. The politics on ownership of property have changed and we are likely to see materially higher taxes and less support for prices going forward imo. Tories need to and Labour want to. 

What's also clear  now is that sentiment has  changed among my friends/acquaintances who own property in/around London;  its gone from you must be mad to STR  a year ago to oh shit its falling. Most still think this is a blip with a likely recovery soon. ie they've gone from "New Paradigm" on the chart below to "Denial". Which if this crash follows classic bubble psychology suggests we are still right at the beginning:

stages_bubble.png

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On 1/14/2017 at 12:41 PM, Fromage Frais said:

 

Some in government understand this to an extent but i dont think the BOE does, QE and ZIRP will bring HAS BROUGHT us to our knees.

 

 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Chrippie said:

Thought i might resurrect this thread, see if anyone's views have changed.

I'm probably a little more bearish on the overall declines that are likely in London than I was given that you are already looking at c. 40% falls marked to market in some areas from peak and some of the biggest negative catalysts still haven't really kicked in (eg IR rises). My guess is we will see 50-60%+ declines in terraced property in PCL, with luxury flats doing worse than that (maybe down 70-90%). I do think it'll take longer to fully play out too though. My guess is we are still 2-3 years from a bottom. 

Couple of things that i didn't foresee a year ago. 

  • Unexplained Wealth Orders, and the fear that foreigners may have that laundered cash in the UK is not as safe as they thought. 
  • The election result last year and the extent to which it would catalyse a change in the zeitgeist against HPI forever. The politics on ownership of property have changed and we are likely to see materially higher taxes and less support for prices going forward imo. Tories need to and Labour want to. 

What's also clear  now is that sentiment has  changed among my friends/acquaintances who own property in/around London;  its gone from you must be mad to STR  a year ago to oh shit its falling. Most still think this is a blip with a likely recovery soon. ie they've gone from "New Paradigm" on the chart below to "Denial". Which if this crash follows classic bubble psychology suggests we are still right at the beginning:

stages_bubble.png

You're chart is out of date.

 

 

updated.jpg

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On 12/01/2017 at 5:19 PM, TheCountOfNowhere said:

60%, then the army goes on the street to calm the rebellion

:D....and trash the other 40%! :D

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7 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

You're chart is out of date.

 

 

updated.jpg

Very good!  The first was called the "bull trap".  Since you identified the second, you're allowed to name it!  A little help - the "insanity trap", but I'm sure there's better!

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9 minutes ago, Fence said:

Very good!  The first was called the "bull trap".  Since you identified the second, you're allowed to name it!  A little help - the "insanity trap", but I'm sure there's better!

The death trap.

 

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  • 356 The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal



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