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CunningPlan

What happens if the immigrants leave?

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I don't want this to be another brexit thread (i.e. please avoid the right or wrong of the referendum) but I haven't seen this covered in any detail

Assuming we will remove benefits from all migrants with say <5 years NI record, what will happen?

I assume the younger single workers will stay since they are not really benefit reliant, but what about those with families?

Would it be safe to assume that 1m plus will leave? Are they mainly London based?  How will this effect housing / NHS / schools / wages?

Any thoughts? 

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8 minutes ago, CunningPlan said:

I don't want this to be another brexit thread (i.e. please avoid the right or wrong of the referendum) but I haven't seen this covered in any detail

Assuming we will remove benefits from all migrants with say <5 years NI record, what will happen?

I assume the younger single workers will stay since they are not really benefit reliant, but what about those with families?

Would it be safe to assume that 1m plus will leave? Are they mainly London based?  How will this effect housing / NHS / schools / wages?

Any thoughts? 

I think its a lot higher than 1m+.

Think 3m-4m.

Of the EUers I know - thats West and Eastern EUers - only 1 Polish woman and 1 French woman is not claiming/dependent on tax credits/benefits.

At my kids school, you'll see about 15% of the kids leave as there is no way their parents can afford to pay their way.

The local hospital will be OK. There's a lot of Spanish + Portugese Nurses but they all earn enough to stay.

Most of the agri workers will go. A lot have already - the fall from £1/E2 to £1/1E has seen them take a massive pay cut.

 

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A lot of the immigrants I see around seem to make it a priority to knock a few kids out when they get here. I suppose the kids are British citizens. I think it may complicate things.

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It's a bit of a misleading title, because you're specifically referring to immigrants who can't support themselves.  It's an absolute joke that they are allowed to live in the UK as it is.  They should not even be in the UK. 

But if they leave, then :-

  • there will be less strain on the infrastructure and a lot less benefits being paid out (obviously).
  • there would be less competition for work, forcing employers to up their game in terms of pay and conditions. 
  • quicker commute times
  • certain areas would be.....quieter (no bad thing)

Overall, a lot of plusses.

I don't think they will leave.  May has already vitrually promised everyone in the UK a British passport who currently has an EU passport.  The UK will see another 2 to 3 million people coming into the country over the next 5 years before the UK (errr, IF the UK) finally leaves the EU. I also don't see any curtailment of benefits.  We're full steam ahead to economic armageddon, the doors are locked, just don't panic and enjoy the onboard entertainment.

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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Wait are the immigrants who are dependent on benefits the same ones who are coming here taking all our jobs??

I don't mind immigrants cause they're mostly under 40 and healthy.

It's the masses of old, overweight, unhealthy natives that's dragging the country down.

Edited by EnglishinWales

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3 minutes ago, EnglishinWales said:

Wait are the immigrants who are dependent on benefits the same ones who are coming here taking all our jobs??

I don't mind immigrants cause they're mostly under 40 and healthy.

It's the masses of old, overweight, unhealthy natives that's dragging the country down.

The younger ones have children and then they use the health service and schools.

The older ones, who are a greater burden come because the young ones are already here. Guess how you can prevent the older ones coming over for a permanent visit?

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5 minutes ago, EnglishinWales said:

Wait are the immigrants who are dependent on benefits the same ones who are coming here taking all our jobs??

I don't mind immigrants cause they're mostly under 40 and healthy.

It's the masses of old, overweight, unhealthy natives that's dragging the country down.

I know someone who works in a hospital admissions ward in Yorks. They are getting lots of overweight middle aged and elderly Roma in, for example. They have diabetes and similar conditions. Even the kids are overweight. Given that there are 6000 (mostly economically inactive) Roma in Page Hall in Sheffield alone, this is unsurprising .  

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32 minutes ago, EnglishinWales said:

Wait are the immigrants who are dependent on benefits the same ones who are coming here taking all our jobs??

I don't mind immigrants cause they're mostly under 40 and healthy.

It's the masses of old, overweight, unhealthy natives that's dragging the country down.

WTC are for the working :)

If you have kids, WTC adds up to a big chunk of non-contributory free money.

Workers also get HB (if entitled) and certainly get CB.

I don't mind anyone going to a country and net-contributing to it.

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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2 hours ago, EnglishinWales said:

Wait are the immigrants who are dependent on benefits the same ones who are coming here taking all our jobs??

I don't mind immigrants cause they're mostly under 40 and healthy.

It's the masses of old, overweight, unhealthy natives that's dragging the country down.

It's too many people full stop that's dragging the country down. And healthy under 40 immigrants will turn into old, overweight, unhealthy immigrants in time. Like it or not we need to deal with the fact that a significant proportion of the population is and will remain old and unhealthy from now on, and that the ration of them to young, healthy people cannot be changed, at least without Logan's Run style policies and that would be going rather too far. Piling in more people at the bottom only gives a short-term change, in the long run it ends up in the same place only with even more people around, you've got to be pretty daft to think that it's a sensible policy. Alas an awful lot of people are that daft and are prepared to ruin anything rather than accept the reality of living beyond our means.

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I wonder if there will be any changes to tax credits/LHA in the budget seeing as Brexit happened and that would be a way to reduce the lure of coming to the UK with a few kids for low paid work?

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UK considering £1000 levy for hiring EU workers, says minister

Immigration minister said skills levy would help British workers who ‘feel they are overlooked.’  The U.K. government is considering imposing a £1,000 levy for skilled EU workers recruited by British employers post-Brexit. U.K. Minister of State for Immigration Robert Goodwill told a House of Lords committee that a “immigration skills levy” would “be helpful to British workers who feel they are overlooked” in favor of migrants “getting jobs they would themselves like to get.”

“For a four-year contract that employer will need to pay a £4,000 immigration skills charge. That is something that currently applies to non-EU and it has been suggested to us that could be applied to EU.” Goodwill said the British vote to leave the EU made clear that not enough was done to ensure that “the skills are available from our own people.” He said he could not tell what Britain’s final immigration policy would be, but asked parliament to consider including the fee in their inquiry report. politico.eu

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23 minutes ago, rollover said:

UK considering £1000 levy for hiring EU workers, says minister

Immigration minister said skills levy would help British workers who ‘feel they are overlooked.’  The U.K. government is considering imposing a £1,000 levy for skilled EU workers recruited by British employers post-Brexit. U.K. Minister of State for Immigration Robert Goodwill told a House of Lords committee that a “immigration skills levy” would “be helpful to British workers who feel they are overlooked” in favor of migrants “getting jobs they would themselves like to get.”

“For a four-year contract that employer will need to pay a £4,000 immigration skills charge. That is something that currently applies to non-EU and it has been suggested to us that could be applied to EU.” Goodwill said the British vote to leave the EU made clear that not enough was done to ensure that “the skills are available from our own people.” He said he could not tell what Britain’s final immigration policy would be, but asked parliament to consider including the fee in their inquiry report. politico.eu

Wouldn't it be simpler to say, so we the Govt appreciate that you really must have someone from outside so you'll be paying them a salary which takes them into the 40% tax band wont you.

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2 hours ago, long time lurking said:

Wages will rise ...supply and demand

In that case firms will push forward automation plans, cut staff and inflation will fly up. 

 

2 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

 

They are already. 

Are they? I don't see many in shops for instance

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14 hours ago, Pieman Pieface said:

In that case firms will push forward automation plans, cut staff and inflation will fly up. 

 

Are they? I don't see many in shops for instance

I do and I see them in pubs, warehouses, offices, public transport, etc. 

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15 hours ago, Pieman Pieface said:

In that case firms will push forward automation plans, cut staff and inflation will fly up. 

 

Are they? I don't see many in shops for instance

Im a one basket Tesco shopper.

So are a lot of people.

We all now use the self checkout tills. theres about 10 at th local Tesco.

They are very useful for people picking up snadwhiches and papers.

I put my basket thru them.

There's one person who oversees all the tills.

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1 hour ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

I do and I see them in pubs, warehouses, offices, public transport, etc. 

Dunno where you live but in london most minimum wage roles, in shops, bars, warehouses etc are seemingly done by immigrants. If they leave then someone has to do those roles. Will Brits want to do that? I'm not so sure.

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On ‎1‎/‎10‎/‎2017 at 5:00 PM, CunningPlan said:

I don't want this to be another brexit thread (i.e. please avoid the right or wrong of the referendum) but I haven't seen this covered in any detail

Assuming we will remove benefits from all migrants with say <5 years NI record, what will happen?

I assume the younger single workers will stay since they are not really benefit reliant, but what about those with families?

Would it be safe to assume that 1m plus will leave? Are they mainly London based?  How will this effect housing / NHS / schools / wages?

Any thoughts? 

Are you sure we can remove benefits from people who are already here. I recall a newsnight discussion where it was claimed this would be illegal, not because of the EU rules but another (Vienna?) treaty we have signed up to that prevents retrospective changes to the terms of residency given at the time of arrival. 

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3 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Are you sure we can remove benefits from people who are already here. I recall a newsnight discussion where it was claimed this would be illegal, not because of the EU rules but another (Vienna?) treaty we have signed up to that prevents retrospective changes to the terms of residency given at the time of arrival. 

My initial thought was that Well it's not stopped government removing various benefits and props previously. I guess though it is about the difference between what is already received and what is promised.  Thinking pensions here, which people have actually paid a contribution towards, miras on mortgages,  but they have also taken away CB from high earners and disability allowance rules were rewritten.  So there is a precedence for taking away what people are currently given.  

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23 minutes ago, Pieman Pieface said:

Dunno where you live but in london most minimum wage roles, in shops, bars, warehouses etc are seemingly done by immigrants. If they leave then someone has to do those roles. Will Brits want to do that? I'm not so sure.

Oh come on this is embarrassing.

I refer you to magic potatoes picking themselves and leaping into a passing tractor pre 2004 in the UK.

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6 minutes ago, ccc said:

Oh come on this is embarrassing.

I refer you to magic potatoes picking themselves and leaping into a passing tractor pre 2004 in the UK.

I remember those magic tractors.  They were made up of most of the kids in my class at school.  They all loved to do it as it was incredibly well paid for a 14-16 year old.  I was never allowed and was well peed off. 

Pay and they will come 

edit to add that most students in London now cannot get holiday work as it is all being done by low payed EEers

Edited by One-percent

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