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One blunt heckler has revealed just how much the UK economy is failing us

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Brilliant piece in the Graun today

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/10/blunt-heckler-economists-failing-us-booming-britain-gdp-london

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“That’s your bloody GDP. Not ours.”

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Andy Haldane's study of GDP variation: 'one of the most revealing graphs I have seen'.

Putting together official figures and the Bank of England’s own calculations, it looked at regional GDP per head from the capital up to Scotland. And it showed that only two regions of the total 12 were actually richer than they were before the credit crunch. Those two regions were London and the south-east. Nearly everywhere else was poorer than in 2007 – sometimes, as in Northern Ireland, a lot poorer.

[But]  in reality this has been a recovery for owner-occupiers in London and the south-east. It has locked out those without big assets, such as the young, and those renting in the capital. It has penalised the poor. And it has impoverished those who have been forced on to zero hours or bogus self-employment.

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There was nothing accidental about this result. It was precision-engineered by Cameron and Osborne: make central and local government deliver the cuts, and leave the job of securing a turnaround to the Bank of England with its one-size-fits-all monetary policy. Governor Mark Carney can’t set one interest rate for Port Talbot and another for Pimlico. That task of progressive redistribution falls to the state, and under the Tories it wasn’t on the table.

The end result is that the recovery constantly boasted about by the Tories was so partial, so patchy and so dedicated to putting money in the pockets of the already wealthy that it makes a mockery of Theresa May’s speechifying this week about a “shared society”. As the Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change argues, it also renders any discussion of unitary issues such as GDP or jobs almost meaningless.

 

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From the guardian link

Quote

Consider: the Bank of England’s chief economist, Andy Haldane, admitted last week that his discipline is in crisis. The crash of 2008-9 was a “Michael Fish moment” for him and his fellow economists, who hadn’t spotted the great hurricane even when black clouds were overhead. Cue much hilarity in the media. Oh, those cracked eggheads! There follows some light joshing about forecasts and less-than-super modelling, while economists go on the BBC to paw at one another like tentatively precoital pandas.

Even if anyone believes that it was all unexpected if they'd actually had their wits about them they could have anticipated "the great hurricane" like those people did in the movie "The Big Short".  

Then even King the ex BoE governor has said it all seemed "deliberate" - albeit in retirement and when apparently trying to pubicise his book.

Edited by billybong

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“That’s your bloody GDP. Not ours.”

Yes that's how I feel also.

GDP is now a measure of how much an elite have squeezed out of an indebted, exploited, sick population.  

They do this by ramming them in, putting up their housing costs, gambling websites, loans, debt, more debt, sickness and misery.

It's not something to be celebrated anymore.  It's actually shameful.

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Money flowing into one place from the rest of the world, globalisation, means that certain places have access to the new money and can make use of the funds before anyone else does....by the time it filters through, if it filters through it has already been devalued converted to debt....but money is not everything, unbalanced societies are not cohesive societies, us and them few miles down the road, only a small island.;)

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From the guardian link

Quote

Margaret Thatcher is famous for claiming that “there is no such thing as society”. Cameron’s legacy will be that there is no such thing as an economy – but a series of regional economies with vastly different prospects. A state-subsidised boom for inner London; a neglected pauperism for the Humber.

Of course there's an economy it's just that it's more aptly named a casino.  A casino rigged by those in power to benefit the rich at the expense of everyone else.

A casino that also includes thievery by those in power.

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Not sure if the pic of the guy peeing in the sea adds anything, but it is a great article.

Interesting to note that in the immediate aftermath of 2008, London's GDP was falling faster than several other regions.

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39 minutes ago, billybong said:

Even if GDP per capita in London is better than elsewhere for the young that's been more than offset by mega crazy London house prices.  

Well, for anyone in London who didn't buy a house more than a decade and a half ago, really.

 

Houses - completely unaffordable for all but the really rich.  Rents - ludicrous, only the rich or those qualifying for housing benefit can afford anything that isn't in a total dump and/or a substantial commute from their job.

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13 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

Well, for anyone in London who didn't buy a house more than a decade and a half ago, really.

 

Houses - completely unaffordable for all but the really rich.  Rents - ludicrous, only the rich or those qualifying for housing benefit can afford anything that isn't in a total dump and/or a substantial commute from their job.

Indeed - or you could finesse it further by including those who didn't step up the "ladder" because prices were even then so crazy - only to see the steps in the ladder get ever larger, even more crazy and even more unaffordable than before.  In other words for all those that were inhibited from buying by the crazy level of house prices in the debt casino.

My sympathies in this regard are generally with the young who could have bought in normal times and those that were young years ago who didn't buy all those years ago when this wicked scandal started.

 

Edited by billybong

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At any rate good for that female heckler - at least she was allowed her say, in NuLabour's days she would have been ejected by the heavies.

Assuming the female heckler isn't just a made up story of course.

Edited by billybong

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37 minutes ago, mattyboy1973 said:

Does anyone know how much of the GDP increase for London/SE is actually due to an increase in imputed rents? (i.e. house prices)

And the pay out of benefits.

Once you discount the benefits - both to people and banks - going into London, he figures are not so good.

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Don't know of guardian spin or the prof actually said it, but "...imagine the plunge in GDP (on brexit)..."

 

The central forecast of the leavers was -4% over several years (and avoiding recession). Hardly a plunge. More project fear.

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Faking growth for years...this article will make you reach for the bottle.

Tim Morgan, ex City economist actually tells it like it is...ours is a great energy economy, which thanks to surplus allows us to do a myriad other things...until it runs out of course. And dont expect alternatives to the heat engine to extract 500 tonnes of rock to make 1 tonne of copper.

www.surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com

His two currencies to dump? GDP and JPY

 

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29 minutes ago, buckers said:

I know this is the gruAniad but is it really something we can pin on them 'Tories'?

Yes. 

You have a burst pipe, so you call a plumber.  He sets fire to your house. 'Not my fault', says the plumber, 'I didn't cause the leak'.  

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I dont think income is key the issue, its the distribution of wealth. All policies seem to work to channel more wealth into the hands of selected groups.

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Best article I've read in the guardian for quite some time. Only disappointing it doesn't mention Milton Friedman in its criticism of economics. 

It kind of implies that economists need more data for their models, rather than explicitly saying that it's clear from the data that the government actions are motivated by a political philosophy of enrichment of the elite, despite the data long since showing that trickle down is a myth

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4 minutes ago, Foreverblowingbubbles said:

Best article I've read in the guardian for quite some time. Only disappointing it doesn't mention Milton Friedman in its criticism of economics. 

It kind of implies that economists need more data for their models, rather than explicitly saying that it's clear from the data that the government actions are motivated by a political philosophy of enrichment of the elite, despite the data long since showing that trickle down is a myth

Sorry, I've just re-read and it was haldane implying the problem was not enough data, not the author. As I say, good article. 

Actually surprised me just how little even london is ahead of 2007 on a gap per capita basis. Shows just how much of the growth has been diluted by, or caused by immigration (depending on your perspective) 

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44 minutes ago, Foreverblowingbubbles said:

Best article I've read in the guardian for quite some time. Only disappointing it doesn't mention Milton Friedman in its criticism of economics. 

It kind of implies that economists need more data for their models, rather than explicitly saying that it's clear from the data that the government actions are motivated by a political philosophy of enrichment of the elite, despite the data long since showing that trickle down is a myth

More data doesn't make bad models good. It just makes them bad to a higher precision.

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