Venger Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Moving to a different country is one option, who find rents very expensive and house prices extreme. If that is your freedom, so be it. I wish you well. Happened time over throughout the centuries - local depressions certainly well linked to migration. Quote When opportunity is cut off in one direction, people will move in another. Where there is freedom to move, the process is practically as automatic as that which inclines plants toward sunshine. It is all part of the mechanism through which individuals actively seek their happiness and societies maintain their balance. People do not have to run away to another country if they do not want to - if they are already FREE, PRODUCTIVE, LIVING (already - no need for some to project that renter-savers are not already 'living life') and HAPPY in a country, that others move away from. Not squandering anything. Being on HPC is not 'not living' whilst those who have found "the paradise" elsewhere also regularly post on same forum from a different country..... With many UK HPCers on renter-saver side only hardship (a major one) being one societally damaging point which they see as a wrong (housing financialisation/BTLism/HPI worship) that they choose to not participate in, resist, push back against, gather on a forum that sorts through much market data and implication - and now expect (with some good reason inc S24) some correction in the near term with (including BTLers selling and being made bankrupt). Other HPCers who are homeowners but see the extremes, the differences between the haves-and-have-even-mores, and are also HPC for such reasons.. wanting rebalance or with their children in mind; overarching positive reasons. Go buy in Thailand if makes you happy - my life is in the UK. Go buy up houses in France to rent out if your think wise. Choices. 20-30 years more? If you say so. Not for 'victory', for simply hope to move toward more affordable homeownership conditions. Perhaps even sooner. Market. I have my doubts about those who have taken drastic action (buy and live outside UK) who choose to come to HPC forum with such negativity and doubt onto the renter-savers who pushback and now have many good reasons for hope against these house prices. (Also those who bring nothing but HPC won't be allowed to happen 'VI VI VI' / homeowner bailouts / innocents.) And the run of posters who project all the few younger buyers (also BOMAD powered buyers) at ever higher prices, as blameless programmed innocents - ('worthy of bailout') seemingly in turn of hoping other HPCers will give up hope. On 9/7/2015 at 6:52 PM, Neverwhere said: ...Homeownerism is the natural state, the thing which we evolved to do - shelter ourselves and our families. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that impulses. Landlordism, on the other hand, causes insecurity of shelter and all of the associated social ills that go with that and effectively imposes a greater burden of taxation on renters than on any other sector of society as their taxes effectively compensate for land rights and yet they have no free access to land and must pay for a second time in order to shelter themselves. Everyone should have the opportunity to have security of shelter and the best way to achieve that would be through compensated property rights, a removal of all taxes on income and productivity, and widespread homeownership. Maybe those first two are pipe dreams but they are worth arguing for, and in the meantime we can at least practically shoot for the last one: housepricecrash! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Im with Venger. You should nto have to leave your country. Just throw the LLs and overleveraged under the train. If its goign to happen, it miht as will happen sooner rather than later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Odin Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 10 hours ago, spyguy said: The mortgage terms are becoming harder- higher deposits. IOW "expect price falls" ... "they're now pretty much baked in" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Odin Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 (edited) . Edited January 10, 2017 by Odin dupe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvoidDebt Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 6.5% per year? Doubling every ten years? This to hit 2m within the next decade? http://www.rightmove.co.uk/s6p/55734001 Sounds perfectly reasonable... Where do I sign up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canbuywontbuy Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, spyguy said: Im with Venger. You should nto have to leave your country. Just throw the LLs and overleveraged under the train. If its goign to happen, it miht as will happen sooner rather than later. Many things "should" not happen. I am not waiting for the world to be perfect. Actually I did wait (about 3 years until 2013). Then I decided not to wait any longer. IMO, Brexit "should" happen. Tax credits "should" be stopped. I'm not one to sit by an egg timer, only to turn it over again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canbuywontbuy Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 3 hours ago, Venger said: Moving to a different country is one option, who find rents very expensive and house prices extreme. If that is your freedom, so be it. I wish you well. Happened time over throughout the centuries - local depressions certainly well linked to migration. People do not have to run away to another country if they do not want to - if they are already FREE, PRODUCTIVE, LIVING (already - no need for some to project that renter-savers are not already 'living life') and HAPPY in a country, that others move away from. Not squandering anything. Being on HPC is not 'not living' whilst those who have found "the paradise" elsewhere also regularly post on same forum from a different country..... With many UK HPCers on renter-saver side only hardship (a major one) being one societally damaging point which they see as a wrong (housing financialisation/BTLism/HPI worship) that they choose to not participate in, resist, push back against, gather on a forum that sorts through much market data and implication - and now expect (with some good reason inc S24) some correction in the near term with (including BTLers selling and being made bankrupt). Other HPCers who are homeowners but see the extremes, the differences between the haves-and-have-even-mores, and are also HPC for such reasons.. wanting rebalance or with their children in mind; overarching positive reasons. Go buy in Thailand if makes you happy - my life is in the UK. Go buy up houses in France to rent out if your think wise. Choices. 20-30 years more? If you say so. Not for 'victory', for simply hope to move toward more affordable homeownership conditions. Perhaps even sooner. Market. I have my doubts about those who have taken drastic action (buy and live outside UK) who choose to come to HPC forum with such negativity and doubt onto the renter-savers who pushback and now have many good reasons for hope against these house prices. (Also those who bring nothing but HPC won't be allowed to happen 'VI VI VI' / homeowner bailouts / innocents.) And the run of posters who project all the few younger buyers (also BOMAD powered buyers) at ever higher prices, as blameless programmed innocents - ('worthy of bailout') seemingly in turn of hoping other HPCers will give up hope. We all make our choices. Personally I found it annoying that I had to move house so regularly because I was renting. Maybe that was bad luck, but it happened (that "should" not have happened in my ideal world!). There is no prescriptive advice to give here. I just outlined that you can take advantage of apparent hopelessness (when something is so far away) - it was meant to be a positive message. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gush Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 13 minutes ago, Nickos said: Cheers, no point wasting it waiting around for what may or may not happen This forum as far as I see no poster insists on other poster to wait. They collect data and turn to information to the best of their knowledge. Based on it each then either end up concluding price correction will or will not happen. You have concluded it will not happen but post it as may or may not happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDevil Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 hours ago, AvoidDebt said: 6.5% per year? Doubling every ten years? This to hit 2m within the next decade? http://www.rightmove.co.uk/s6p/55734001 Sounds perfectly reasonable... Where do I sign up? Wow, and the EA says this is reasonably priced? What an utter joke. Everything that's wrong worth this country right there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolfie84 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 16 hours ago, PropertyMania said: Absolutely. A UK house price chart in US dollars since the early 1970s ($2.50) to today ($1.21) would look very different. Here it is from 2007, based on land registry prices Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patient London FTB Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wolfie84 said: Here it is from 2007, based on land registry prices Nice chart - would love to see same thing for London as the volatility in USD must be even bigger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolfie84 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Patient London FTB said: Nice chart - would love to see same thing for London as the volatility in USD must be even bigger So demanding... ;-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patient London FTB Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 23 minutes ago, Wolfie84 said: So demanding... ;-) Cheers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 (edited) 2 hours ago, Grumpysod said: Looking at the data today in 2017 from a wide source from lending to job confidence to Brexit to house price inflation data, you could use a 100 pointers and they all indicate an inevitable property price crash, they have done for several years. You can even go back to the early 2000's and there was the likes of respected Professor Oswald giving a solid case for a property price collapse, his voice and opinion long since silenced. Like many I do not want to leave the country, and I will probably not leave the country when push comes to shove, though there are a few options I have not ruled out. I love the UK, I love the seasons, the people(mostly), the countryside, the banter, plus like most people my friends and family. But something ugly has scarred this country and it goes deeper than just housing, which in my opinion is just a side issue. I blame the left and right in politics both equally for what has happened, maybe the left is even worse in that it has castrated the people it proclaims to protect by making and keeping them victims. My housing predictions of the past several years has been based on the the undeniable fact that the housing policies in the UK have become a complete joke bordering on the criminal and a naive belief that justice would prevail and things whether by protest or just a rebalance of the economy and even politics. What I totally ruled out was a concerted effort by something I do not totally understand fully to keep the plates metaphorically turning longer than I imagined possible, a lifetime or even longer maybe. I should have known better, I am part of an Irish culture that has a history of it's great people leaving their beautiful lands and building many parts of the modern world in order to move on to a better life. A country that has only ever had a population of less than a few million and an abundance of talent as well as just good, humorus and hard working people in a still under populated fertile country that still cannot for some reason get it's act together for reasons so many people just cannot understand, maybe their day is still to come. As you say so much going for the UK as regards the environment when most of the rest of the world is a bit rubbish, especailly with regard to the seasons and countryside. As Edith Wharton observed the ever-recurring wonders of the whole incredibly compressed island that make so few miles a distance. Give me that anyday over the boredom of going 100 miles in the States and seeing no change or anything of particular interest or vintage. Same with Aus. Also it beats me how the maths can possibly work, in any case, given the NHS and the cost of establishing yourself thousands of miles away. Surely making do with something in Wales or Scotland for under 100k is a better solution with the back up of our generous welfare state and probably cheaper housing anyway than some foreign parts affected by a global housing bubble. Edited January 10, 2017 by crashmonitor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nabby81 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Latest crappy new build in Luton http://www.zoopla.co.uk/new-homes/details/42620824?search_identifier=cb88d8fa8aa90a98a976e7452e128e00#bqziaAkzSo5hIPTJ.97 250k for a 1 bed no parking above a shop ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BorrowToLeech Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 4 hours ago, Gush said: This forum as far as I see no poster insists on other poster to wait. They collect data and turn to information to the best of their knowledge. Based on it each then either end up concluding price correction will or will not happen. You have concluded it will not happen but post it as may or may not happen. The implication that we're all here for financial advice, or to make predictions, irritates me a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tempus Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 28 minutes ago, Nabby81 said: Latest crappy new build in Luton http://www.zoopla.co.uk/new-homes/details/42620824?search_identifier=cb88d8fa8aa90a98a976e7452e128e00#bqziaAkzSo5hIPTJ.97 250k for a 1 bed no parking above a shop ... When a town gets national coverage as Britain's number one property hotspot, as Luton is now, it's your classic gold rush. The investors will pile in, sending prices rocketing, making the town unaffordable for any local, ordinary earner (or any sane person...). Then it will be repeated in the next property hotspot. Slash and burn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digsby Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 (edited) On 09/01/2017 at 5:27 PM, crashmonitor said: I would say as regards stock the opposite has occurred in the N Midlands it's fallen fast and most stuff under 200k has gone very quickly. May be I am a boiling frog but I am struggling to see any significant change in asking prices. I'd certainly notice if we had a fraction of the nonsense that had occurred further south, we haven't. Whether prices only react when inventories hit crisis point, who knows. After watching the carnage further south and seeing very little movement up north tbh I'd be surprised at this late stage if there were any significant price movements north of Nottingham. The ripple has had years to fan out, yet its got stuck in the S Midlands. The way I see the ripple effect is more akin to skimming a stone over a pond than chucking a brick in it, exceat than on each bounce, it splits into several smaller stones that each jump in different directions via transport links until they are too small to create a ripple. Once the ripples that occur peter out though, unless another ripple is created to continue the wave, there is a kind of reverse ripple that sucks back in, with prices falling first at the epicentre and last at the outer rim. I came up the initial mental model of the skimming stones a while ago when prices in Bath had been rising quickly for a while, and towns in the surrounding area had started to rise too, and then outwards into the villages surrounding them. While Bath is popular with Londoners moving out, Frome is popular with Bathonians, for example. Prices in Frome were pretty reasonable 18 months ago, relatively speaking. But they became outrageous 9 months ago, and prices in the villages around Frome were pretty reasonable 9 months ago but are outrageous now. So I've been chasing the ripples outwards. I added the reverse ripple refinement several months ago, after adding Bath back into my search area and found that prices there actually started looking not-so-outrageous in comparison to the satellite towns like Frome that I had been looking at. So I theorised that the supply of Londoners in Bath had dried up and the market weakened, but the effect hadn't reached very far outwards yet - but that it would eventually. I checked Rightmoves Market Trends today to see whether the weakness in Bath I perceived was reflected in the supply/demand ratio, and sure enough, the marketed properties in November 2016 were 30% up on 2015 but the number sold was down 30% (both roughly). Now I'm beginning, just, to see the effect of that take hold in the area. I imagine the dynamics are the same in your area but to a much lesser extent - but look towards the cities with good transport links to larger cities nearer London for evidence. Edited January 10, 2017 by Digsby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bear.getting.old Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 9 hours ago, Grumpysod said: What I totally ruled out was a concerted effort by something I do not totally understand fully to keep the plates metaphorically turning longer than I imagined possible, a lifetime or even longer maybe. Me too. I nearly caved in and bought in 2010. It went against my principles, houses still hadn't properly crashed and we were in a recession. Like 2003 when I thought about moving to a bigger house with a job move I didn't. I sold it. 2 big mistakes. I still won't buy into this madness. Which is why I bought in Ireland instead. They had a proper 50% crash. I still live here while I'm working here at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDevil Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Just reviewed Rightmove and PropertyBee for my local area. Grim reading, everything that was sticking before xmas is now under offer. Stuff selling at previous crazy fantasy prices. I cant believe that December prices have taken another leg up. Crazy. Is there a need for a housepricecrash web site any more? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btd1981 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Digsby said: The way I see the ripple effect is more akin to skimming a stone over a pond than chucking a brick in it, exceat than on each bounce, it splits into several smaller stones that each jump in different directions via transport links until they are too small to create a ripple. Once the ripples that occur peter out though, unless another ripple is created to continue the wave, there is a kind of reverse ripple that sucks back in, with prices falling first at the epicentre and last at the outer rim. I came up the initial mental model of the skimming stones a while ago when prices in Bath had been rising quickly for a while, and towns in the surrounding area had started to rise too, and then outwards into the villages surrounding them. While Bath is popular with Londoners moving out, Frome is popular with Bathonians, for example. Prices in Frome were pretty reasonable 18 months ago, relatively speaking. But they became outrageous 9 months ago, and prices in the villages around Frome were pretty reasonable 9 months ago but are outrageous now. So I've been chasing the ripples outwards. I added the reverse ripple refinement several months ago, after adding Bath back into my search area and found that prices there actually started looking not-so-outrageous in comparison to the satellite towns like Frome that I had been looking at. So I theorised that the supply of Londoners in Bath had dried up and the market weakened, but the effect hadn't reached very far outwards yet - but that it would eventually. I checked Rightmoves Market Trends today to see whether the weakness in Bath I perceived was reflected in the supply/demand ratio, and sure enough, the marketed properties in November 2016 were 30% up on 2015 but the number sold was down 30% (both roughly). Now I'm beginning, just, to see the effect of that take hold in the area. I imagine the dynamics are the same in your area but to a much lesser extent - but look towards the cities with good transport links to larger cities nearer London for evidence. I love your analogy. I've had similar thoughts and this is a really nice way of describing it. The secondary, tertiary skips are presumably people priced out of their local markets in the main towns. You say sales volumes have fallen in Barth, but will prices? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noallegiance Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 9 hours ago, Nabby81 said: Latest crappy new build in Luton http://www.zoopla.co.uk/new-homes/details/42620824?search_identifier=cb88d8fa8aa90a98a976e7452e128e00#bqziaAkzSo5hIPTJ.97 250k for a 1 bed no parking above a shop ... Quarter mil for two rooms and a sh!tter. "..the city is expected to see the second-fastest rate of house price growth in England and Wales, at 41% by 2019 according to Oxford Economics; providing investors with excellent capital appreciation potential." .......or you could just, ya know, live there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tempus Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 hours ago, GreenDevil said: Just reviewed Rightmove and PropertyBee for my local area. Grim reading, everything that was sticking before xmas is now under offer. Stuff selling at previous crazy fantasy prices. I cant believe that December prices have taken another leg up. Crazy. Is there a need for a housepricecrash web site any more? Until we see investors losing money and in tears, they'll just keep buying and just keep driving prices up. The more they pay, the more they think they're worth. That's how they think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nabby81 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 41 minutes ago, Noallegiance said: Quarter mil for two rooms and a sh!tter. "..the city is expected to see the second-fastest rate of house price growth in England and Wales, at 41% by 2019 according to Oxford Economics; providing investors with excellent capital appreciation potential." .......or you could just, ya know, live there. Well that is argument I have been having on a Facebook group for about a year , some locals are convinced all these new flats going up will bring investment to the town and provide homes for locals and I say sorry that's just not going to happen. ..when you become a commuter town that's all you are ,high paid jobs don't follow increasing house prices and developers don't cater for locals.In this case the sales burb is very blatantly selling to investors !! Quote I see your point. A typical buy to let mortgage requires 25% down. On that flat it's £68K with a interest only mortgage coming in at £100 a month, rent coming in at a good £700 a month that's £600 profit every month minus fees. Issue is long term value and a big risk of negative equity. The developers have priced it in such a manner as an investor I won't be tempted to go in at that price specially for a one bed unless I'm buying cash outright. Even then whilst the market is good and there is good investment in Luton I have my doubts, these prices to me indicate artificial inflation of a market which is so common with new build developments. The natural market is way off the figures so there is a big risk of negative equity! The above was posted on Facebook , can you really get a btl mortgage that cheaply per month .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mathschoc Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 I went on rightmove today as I do every few days and there has been a sudden increase in the number of houses on market in my area. The prices of those that have just come new to market (3 bed semi) are about 40k lower than similar old listings. Very odd, considering Halifax news, perhaps estate agents have decided to suggest lower prices to sellers? Looks strange too, odd that the new listings are obviously lower alongside the older ones. i am in the south east Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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