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Zoopla Property Price Estimate - Overnight Drop


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On 07/01/2017 at 10:22 AM, winkie said:

No one person can dictate the value..... general sentiment dictates value, just goes to show how vulnerable to change prices can be, makes you wonder the reasons why people do buy something, and so edgy with changes either way when purchasing something over the long-term when many ups and down do occur......Makes you wonder if things do fall how this would be self- perpetuating. ;)

It's no different to the stock market in that respect.  Now that sales data is freely available people can develop algorithms like Zoopla have.  In the same way that automated systems built on those algorithms cause larger and more exaggerated swings in the market, indexes like Zooplas could easily do the same to house prices.  That data wasn't available during the last housing crash and will add a new flavour to this one I'm sure.

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1 hour ago, Kurt Barlow said:

On an 800K freehold you will pay 30K in Stamp duty. Not sure how this works on a Leasehold.

Just the tax alone could buy you 12-18 months  rent of a 1 Bed in Notting Hill. The tax would cover this for 18 months. I bet you could squeeze a reduction on asking.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-44988948.html

 

Same with leasehold - stamp is 30k.

Trust me you wouldn't want to live on Queensway, at least not for that kind of money. At the end of the 18 months you'll be in the exact same position but perhaps prices have gone up or down 10% - and you will have 30k less to spend. We need a 50% drop to bring things back in line but it will only happen in real terms not nominally. The government will do all they can to keep nominal prices high and make people think they haven't lost money.

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57 minutes ago, Gurgle said:

It's no different to the stock market in that respect.  Now that sales data is freely available people can develop algorithms like Zoopla have.  In the same way that automated systems built on those algorithms cause larger and more exaggerated swings in the market, indexes like Zooplas could easily do the same to house prices.  That data wasn't available during the last housing crash and will add a new flavour to this one I'm sure.

The other problem is it can do the opposite as well. Speculators can determine value and bid on things that would otherwise not attract any attention. It is creating a more efficient market but I don't know if that's a good thing.

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37 minutes ago, longtermbuyer said:

The other problem is it can do the opposite as well. Speculators can determine value and bid on things that would otherwise not attract any attention. It is creating a more efficient market but I don't know if that's a good thing.

Whats the particular attraction of Notting Hill? I work about about 15 minutes walk from there and my daily commute from Enfield door to door is about 55 minutes. I'm 15 years older, married with a kid so I appreciate my priories maybe different.

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3 hours ago, longtermbuyer said:

For rent there are yes - you can also half that bill by living with roommates. But a year goes by and you've dropped upto 30k on rent and prices haven't gone down equivalently, so your purchasing power has gone down and you can't afford what you could a year ago. Can't wait for a crash but to be honest I've been waiting a long time and now that it has softened people just took their places off the market so now there is more competition for less property.

You can't really build more period terraced houses so the only thing I am banking on is that prices were artificially pushed up by BTL and now they are no longer buying due to stamp.

With the pound being so weak though I've seen a lot of places go under offer by people in Canada/US (i've been tracking all the properties in the area). So brexit didn't really help - my only hope is that we have a hard brexit to deter international buyers but then we probably have more things to worry about.

So according to Knight-Frank, prices in Notting Hill were down 9.7% over the past year as of December 2016.  That's an 80k loss on the type of place you're looking for, i.e. more than two years of rent. Renting for a year to wait this out is hardly wasted money.

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26 minutes ago, Kurt Barlow said:

Whats the particular attraction of Notting Hill? I work about about 15 minutes walk from there and my daily commute from Enfield door to door is about 55 minutes. I'm 15 years older, married with a kid so I appreciate my priories maybe different.

I have no idea what the attraction of Notting Hill is, the place is a shithole.

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59 minutes ago, richc said:

So according to Knight-Frank, prices in Notting Hill were down 9.7% over the past year as of December 2016.  That's an 80k loss on the type of place you're looking for, i.e. more than two years of rent. Renting for a year to wait this out is hardly wasted money.

This is only true for the real prime streets and places worth £1m+. I haven't seen this translate into sub £1m. At best all that has happened is there are less of the super crazy asking prices and now they are "just" crazy.

Notting Hill particularly because I live there now so I like the area, my friends live here, and at least perhaps the Whiteleys development will save me if there is a crash. South Kensington, Marylebone would be also of interest if it were not for the fact they are slightly more expensive. 

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Mate, 4 pages in and it seems like you have made up your mind, this thread now seems pointless as you had decided before you started it.

 

Good luck with your purchase, despite MOST on here believing you will get your fingers burnt if you touch an 800K 1 bed flat in Prime London during this juncture. But each to their own, your a big boy/girl and as you work in finance must be numerate to a degree

 

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23 hours ago, longtermbuyer said:

Do you have an inherent problem with someone actually wanting to buy a home? We all know prices are too high but why should you care if someone else doesn't want to wait 20 years for a "correction".

I have not been outbid, zone 1 London is a different demographic with different market drivers. At the moment sellers won't sell and buyers won't pay prices so transaction volumes are nil. What's worse is that as sellers don't expect to get good prices they are no longer listing so the only supply on the market is ex-btl'ers i.e. the places which you really wouldn't want to live in.

Go out to North or East London and the story is different but still the same. Very difficult for anyone to buy a place they can call home in London these days. I don't really see what will change that.

Not programmed. 

Active market decision by an adult market participant.

Millions of different views exist in the market, not High Sparrows superiority - and pavement licking about them being innocents if any HPC comes along.

Get in the longtermbuyer with your London house price beliefs.

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4 hours ago, Kurt Barlow said:

On an 800K freehold you will pay 30K in Stamp duty. Not sure how this works on a Leasehold.

Where did you get the idea that stamp duty might differe depending on whether the property is leasehold or freehold? I'm genuinely curious as I've heard this from someone else.

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7 hours ago, longtermbuyer said:

The problem is that since I am looking to buy a home not an investment, when a downturn does happen, the kinds of places I am looking at will not be for sale. Those owners will simply hold on to them until they feel it is a good time to sell because they are simply pied a terre or empty/second properties for them. Rarely have I seen any which are actually occupied by the owner i.e. a local person/couple looking to upsize. If we have another 2008/9 scenario there will be a lot of ex-btl properties on the market and those were never worth buying to live in in the first place.

Where do your colleagues (also in 20s) and friends live? You might consider places just outside prime, where 1 beds are more like 400-500k and are bought by affluent workers rather than the super-rich.

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20 minutes ago, Kiwi Toast said:

Where do your colleagues (also in 20s) and friends live? You might consider places just outside prime, where 1 beds are more like 400-500k and are bought by affluent workers rather than the super-rich.

Something I still fail to understand is that if prices are too high and people cannot afford it, who have been buying all these properties? It can't all be international buyers and to be honest I don't know that many people with the kind of cash I have who are actually willing to spend - i'm still buying tesco value soap constantly saving against rising prices.

My thoughts are that only a small percentage of property that exists is sold. The people who have bought 5-10 years ago cannot afford to sell now because they cannot move up the next step and nor would they probably like to leave their area unless they have to. So there is just a shortage of properties trading hands and this artificial scarcity is driving up prices. If everyone who wanted to sell came on the market at once the true price could be discovered.

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27 minutes ago, Kiwi Toast said:

Where do your colleagues (also in 20s) and friends live? You might consider places just outside prime, where 1 beds are more like 400-500k and are bought by affluent workers rather than the super-rich.

I understand what you're saying but oddly enough I can't stomach spending 400-500k on a place in zone 3 vs nearly double but in a prime area.

The first feels like you are overpaying vs the second which is paying a high price for at least something desirable.

Imagine you bought a really expensive ford mondeo vs a porsche. At least with a porsche you will feel like you paid a high price but got something rare, with the ford you will just feel like it's crazy that you must pay so much and end up with a ford mondeo.

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Fair enough. But I'm just curious where they do live. You say all the owners/sellers in Notting Hill are foreign/rich, not working. Are your colleagues and friends renting in Notting Hill and nearby?

I would have thought zone 3 would be more like 325-375, zone 2 is around 400 for 1 beds.

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18 minutes ago, Kiwi Toast said:

Fair enough. But I'm just curious where they do live. You say all the owners/sellers in Notting Hill are foreign/rich, not working. Are your colleagues and friends renting in Notting Hill and nearby?

I would have thought zone 3 would be more like 325-375, zone 2 is around 400 for 1 beds.

Most need 2+ rooms so tend to live further out i.e. clapham or east depending on whether they were born in london and want to be near where they grew up or moved here.

Where in zone 2 are these 400 1 beds? I've been looking at maida vale etc as a comparison often and it's certainly not cheap.

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Just now, longtermbuyer said:

Most need 2+ rooms so tend to live further out i.e. clapham or east depending on whether they were born in london and want to be near where they grew up or moved here.

Where in zone 2 are these 400 1 beds? I've been looking at maida vale etc as a comparison often and it's certainly not cheap.

I have a few friends from work in Notting Hill but they bought properties I wouldn't have considered - above shops or top floor type stuff. The few I know with really nice places were bought by their parents years ago and handed to them. 

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34 minutes ago, longtermbuyer said:

Most need 2+ rooms so tend to live further out i.e. clapham or east depending on whether they were born in london and want to be near where they grew up or moved here.

Where in zone 2 are these 400 1 beds? I've been looking at maida vale etc as a comparison often and it's certainly not cheap.

Clapham is zone 2.

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17 hours ago, This time said:

I have no idea what the attraction of Notting Hill is, the place is a shithole.

It used to be, here's a working class scene from the 1953 coronation celebrations on Rillington Place. The boarded up end house is the recent scene of Reginald Christie's serial murders. I gather quite a bit of gentrification has occurred since.

PA-4875726.jpg

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On 06/01/2017 at 7:12 PM, Wayward said:

7% overnight? How much did it fall the night before that?

 

On 07/01/2017 at 5:50 PM, longtermbuyer said:

I am definitely trying to buy right now. Everyone has different circumstances.

I have been trying to buy a 1 bedroom flat in Notting Hill for £800-900k for over a year now.

Volatility is only important if you need to sell (I don't) or if you need to refinance (I don't).

Thanks for coming onto the house price CRASH web site to tell us all you'll  buy a £900K flat in Prime Central London.

 

:rolleyes:

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2 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

It used to be, here's a working class scene from the 1953 coronation celebrations on Rillington Place. The boarded up end house is the recent scene of Reginald Christie's serial murders. I gather quite a bit of gentrification has occurred since.

PA-4875726.jpg

there's a lot to be said for cohesive and harmonious communities...

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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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