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ldavison81

Zoopla Property Price Estimate - Overnight Drop

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Hi All,

I'm currently in the process of buying a flat in London and have spent many hours researching the sale of comparable properties to ensure I am paying the right price.

One of the tools that I have looked at, but not relied on, has been the Zoopla property price estimate. I understand that this is an estimate, and is based on the house price index data uploaded by the government and also I appreciate that it is not that accurate.

However, I'm concerned as the Zoopla estimate dropped by 7% overnight for the particular property I am looking at, from around £400k to £370k, as well as comparable drops for all other flats in the building. I also noticed that my current property, over 50 miles away, also dropped in price overnight, albeit just by 1%. 

I contacted Zoopla and they sent me a generic response:  "The Zoopla Estimates on our website are our opinion of the market values of homes, based on publicly available data from the Land Registry and Registers of Scotland, which in some cases may be incomplete or inaccurate. Our value estimates are calculated using a proprietary algorithm that we have developed by analysing millions of property data points, and are constantly refined using the most recent data available."

Has anybody else noticed this downward trend? Have property prices in the area really dropped by 7% in the space of one monthly/quarterly update from the land registry data of house prices?

Thanks.

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It's the latest set of land registry figures feeding through to their pricing model. So it'll reflect sales of other properties locally. Probably a sale of a flat in that block for a lower figure than their old estimate. 

 

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4 hours ago, ldavison81 said:

Hi All,

I'm currently in the process of buying a flat in London and have spent many hours researching the sale of comparable properties to ensure I am paying the right price.

One of the tools that I have looked at, but not relied on, has been the Zoopla property price estimate. I understand that this is an estimate, and is based on the house price index data uploaded by the government and also I appreciate that it is not that accurate.

However, I'm concerned as the Zoopla estimate dropped by 7% overnight for the particular property I am looking at, from around £400k to £370k, as well as comparable drops for all other flats in the building. I also noticed that my current property, over 50 miles away, also dropped in price overnight, albeit just by 1%. 

I contacted Zoopla and they sent me a generic response:  "The Zoopla Estimates on our website are our opinion of the market values of homes, based on publicly available data from the Land Registry and Registers of Scotland, which in some cases may be incomplete or inaccurate. Our value estimates are calculated using a proprietary algorithm that we have developed by analysing millions of property data points, and are constantly refined using the most recent data available."

Has anybody else noticed this downward trend? Have property prices in the area really dropped by 7% in the space of one monthly/quarterly update from the land registry data of house prices?

Thanks.

Just enter the post code https://houseprices.io/

Edited by long time lurking

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4 hours ago, ldavison81 said:

Have property prices in the area really dropped by 7% in the space of one monthly/quarterly update

Yes... it's highly likely.

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Interesting, just checked ours, seems to have dropped £5000 from what it was showing last month. If this is the case across the board, wait for the surveyors for mortgages to role out the down values and kill the market

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Sorry, but why is any sane person buying a flat in London right now?  Rental yields in London are so low that it makes no sense to be buying given the risks of brexit, rising global interest rates and changes to BTL taxation on capital values. Buying a flat in London right now is a very good way to lose a very large sum of money very quickly ( as in £30,000 a month).

Edited by richc

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5 minutes ago, richc said:

Sorry, but why is any sane person buying a flat in London right now?  Rental yields in London are so low that it makes no sense to be buying given the risks of brexit, rising global interest rates and changes to BTL taxation on capital values. Buying a flat in London right now is a very good way to lose a very large sum of money very quickly ( as in £30,000 a month).

Spoilsport

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Guest

I'm looking to flush some money down the toilet but it keeps getting blocked. Would it work if I just lifted a manhole cover and chucked it down there?

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19 minutes ago, Kiwi_Muncher said:

I'm looking to flush some money down the toilet but it keeps getting blocked. Would it work if I just lifted a manhole cover and chucked it down there?

Feel your pain Kiwi_Muncher, I'm currently burning my stash of 'old fuddy-duddy paper money' due to the recent cold snap.

Those darn new £5 notes will just not burn, I've resorted to shredding those and using them as stuffing for a blanket.

 

 

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8 hours ago, richc said:

Sorry, but why is any sane person buying a flat in London right now?  Rental yields in London are so low that it makes no sense to be buying given the risks of brexit, rising global interest rates and changes to BTL taxation on capital values. Buying a flat in London right now is a very good way to lose a very large sum of money very quickly ( as in £30,000 a month).

Maybe the OP is playing some kind of Brewster's Millions game or something?

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No one person can dictate the value..... general sentiment dictates value, just goes to show how vulnerable to change prices can be, makes you wonder the reasons why people do buy something, and so edgy with changes either way when purchasing something over the long-term when many ups and down do occur......Makes you wonder if things do fall how this would be self- perpetuating. ;)

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13 hours ago, hamish1985 said:

Interesting, just checked ours, seems to have dropped £5000 from what it was showing last month. If this is the case across the board, wait for the surveyors for mortgages to role out the down values and kill the market

Yep ours is down £7,000 overnight. I note the one we sold in Nottingham in March is up £18,000 since then, possibly an indicator of where the ripple is at.

Fwiw I think the ripple may not get much further than Nottingham. For one thing the comparison between houses in sink wards in the South East and houses in the Peak district is now so great that  there should have been some recognition of the fact by now in price movement , not really happened. If folk aren't  tempted  to swap drug dens in Hackney for mansions in the north now when the price gap is so apparent, my guess is they never will.

Also previous ripples have spread fast and even gained momentum, not got stuck somewhere between Northampton and Nottingham

Edited by crashmonitor

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18 hours ago, ldavison81 said:

Hi All,

I'm currently in the process of buying a flat in London and have spent many hours researching the sale of comparable properties to ensure I am paying the right price. 

I contacted Zoopla and they sent me a generic response:  "The Zoopla Estimates on our website are our opinion of the market values of homes, based on publicly available data from the Land Registry and Registers of Scotland, which in some cases may be incomplete or inaccurate. Our value estimates are calculated using a proprietary algorithm that we have developed by analysing millions of property data points, and are constantly refined using the most recent data available."

 Zoopla is a website. So you contacted them and asked their considered their opinion on an incredibly complex model  that governments are having trouble predicating in 2017 ? Who do you consult for career advice Mystic Meg ;)

Zoopla is a data and algorithm driven site that may or may not give you an indication of what a home could be worth as a snapshot.

In our area Zoopla seems to have no bearing on the actual prices sold either too low or too high. As Winkie says no one person can dictate the value but one buyer can, much like selling a car (bigger sums I know), in spite of the hype generally I have found when selling a property or indeed buying one there are only a few serious buyers for specifically your property, at that time with the funds

 

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12 minutes ago, Greg Bowman said:

 Zoopla is a data and algorithm driven site that may or may not give you an indication of what a home could be worth as a snapshot.....

In our area Zoopla seems to have no bearing on the actual prices sold either too low or too high.

This. Zoopla estimates are not worth bothering with.  Look at the latest prices paid data (from the land reg or other sites that use their data) for hard facts and go from there.

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14 minutes ago, Greg Bowman said:

 Zoopla is a website. So you contacted them and asked their considered their opinion on an incredibly complex model  that governments are having trouble predicating in 2017 ? Who do you consult for career advice Mystic Meg ;)

Zoopla is a data and algorithm driven site that may or may not give you an indication of what a home could be worth as a snapshot.

In our area Zoopla seems to have no bearing on the actual prices sold either too low or too high. As Winkie says no one person can dictate the value but one buyer can, much like selling a car (bigger sums I know), in spite of the hype generally I have found when selling a property or indeed buying one there are only a few serious buyers for specifically your property, at that time with the funds

 

They were pretty much spot on with the price we sold ours at last year, but I guess one success doesn't mean they are always right.

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9 minutes ago, InlikeFlynn said:

This. Zoopla estimates are not worth bothering with.  Look at the latest prices paid data (from the land reg or other sites that use their data) for hard facts and go from there.

I think they do, problem is they need a recent purchase within the last fifteen years or so. Also takes no account of improvements or delapidations. The fact we bought a house within that timeframe, maintained but didn't improve it meant zoopla was very accurate when we came to sell.

Of course, the vendor can make representations to zoopla if he has improved the property. indeed probably sensible to do that, because 90% of prospective purchasers are going to look on zoopla these days just for the fun of it if nothing else.

Edited by crashmonitor

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18 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

I think they do, problem is they need a recent purchase within the last fifteen years or so. Also takes no account of improvements or delapidations. The fact we bought a house within that timeframe, maintained but didn't improve it meant zoopla was very accurate when we came to sell.

Of course, the vendor can make representations to zoopla if he has improved the property. indeed probably sensible to do that, because 90% of prospective purchasers are going to look on zoopla these days just for the fun of it if nothing else.

Actually Zoopla does allow you to refine estimates based on improvements, but it is very much down to what you enter and isn't particularly accurate.

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10 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Actually Zoopla does allow you to refine estimates based on improvements, but it is very much down to what you enter and isn't particularly accurate.

Yep that's right you claim a property and then basically fill in the questionaire as you like. So an unscrupulous vendor can rather big it up giving excellent for everything.

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FWIW I get the impression that the Zoopla estimate simply takes the last known sold price and applies house price change data from surrounding properties to get a ballpark, potentially with a few other tweaks thrown in (including the user-added improvements and changes mentioned by ML above; which must be massively subjective).

I agree with crashmonitor's suggestion that Zoopla's valuations get more accurate the more recently the property was sold, along I suspect with high turnover of properties in that area as it gives a larger sample group and damps down the influence of outliers that might give seemingly spurriously high or low suggestions of growth due to un-qualified factors such as improvements, damage or other things that might affect value.

With regard to the OP's question the drop is evidently the result of the influence of fresh data and could be (most likely is) the result of a legitimate general trend of price decline in the area, but could also be the result of one or to particular properties in the area selling for an uncharacteristically low value for some reason.

I'd echo the sentiments of the other members who've questioned the sense in buying a property in London currently - an area that's seen unprecidented price growth over the past few years and now seems to have passed an inflection point with prices heading south fairly rapidly in many areas.

I suspect that if the OP hasn't been scared away forever, providing the ballpark postcode to the good people of HPC would allow a lot more insight into the legitimacy of this price drop on Zoopla :)

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15 hours ago, richc said:

Sorry, but why is any sane person buying a flat in London right now?  Rental yields in London are so low that it makes no sense to be buying given the risks of brexit, rising global interest rates and changes to BTL taxation on capital values. Buying a flat in London right now is a very good way to lose a very large sum of money very quickly ( as in £30,000 a month).

This. Really smart girl at work (early 30s, Cambridge Natsci) buying a newbuld 600k flat in Canary Wharf. Studio. 'first time buyer'.

I'm pretty sure I'm the only person she's ever spoken to who dissents from this being a good plan.

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19 hours ago, richc said:

Sorry, but why is any sane person buying a flat in London right now?  Rental yields in London are so low that it makes no sense to be buying given the risks of brexit, rising global interest rates and changes to BTL taxation on capital values. Buying a flat in London right now is a very good way to lose a very large sum of money very quickly ( as in £30,000 a month).

I am definitely trying to buy right now. Everyone has different circumstances.

I have been trying to buy a 1 bedroom flat in Notting Hill for £800-900k for over a year now.

Volatility is only important if you need to sell (I don't) or if you need to refinance (I don't).

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