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Tens of thousands of quick-build homes set to tackle housing crisis

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The German and Dutch leadership are concerned with the well being of their populations.  All the evidence is clear that this is not the case here in the UK.  Much talk currently of delivering decent housing to meet the need in the UK...I will believe it when I see it. 

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Made by China I believe. I'm sure I read something a few weeks ago that said the Chinese wanted to open three (?) factories here to manufacture these types of homes.

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The phrase "for every complex question, there is a simple answer & it is wrong" springs to mind.....

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Won't they just be instantly recognisable as prefabs, carry a stigma, become unsellable in a decade or two? They may soak up some of the demand from 300K+ net migrants but nobody will live in them out of choice.

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1 hour ago, Solitaire said:

Made by China I believe. I'm sure I read something a few weeks ago that said the Chinese wanted to open three (?) factories here to manufacture these types of homes.

Like this?

 

 

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It's not a housing crisis it's a land crisis. Building more houses won't solve the main problem: land distribution inequality pushing prices up.

Get the aristocracy, fake farmers, MoD, National Trust, The Windsor family and the Church off the land that's supposed to belong to all of us. Then we'll see what's what.

Edited by EnglishinWales

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12 hours ago, ThePiltdownMan said:

Won't they just be instantly recognisable as prefabs, carry a stigma, become unsellable in a decade or two? They may soak up some of the demand from 300K+ net migrants but nobody will live in them out of choice.

Won't lenders refuse to lend against them like other prefabs? I hope Javid has checked with them, it could be pretty embarrassing if not.

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10 hours ago, EnglishinWales said:

It's not a housing crisis it's a land crisis. Building more houses won't solve the main problem: land distribution inequality pushing prices up.

Get the aristocracy, fake farmers, MoD, National Trust, The Windsor family and the Church off the land that's supposed to belong to all of us. Then we'll see what's what.

Yes, this is the nub of the matter 

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13 hours ago, EnglishinWales said:

It's not a housing crisis it's a land crisis. Building more houses won't solve the main problem: land distribution inequality pushing prices up.

Get the aristocracy, fake farmers, MoD, National Trust, The Windsor family and the Church off the land that's supposed to belong to all of us. Then we'll see what's what.

It is indeed a land issue. The cost of building has fallen significantly relative to the cost of the land. 

A tiny fraction of our land is built on thanks to greenbelts that benefit no one but the NIMBYs. 

I'm not sure that the land you target as a class warrior would necessarily be the most useful - a reduction in the greenbelt around London by a mere mile would solve the south East's housing problem. 

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It sounds like another way of masking the true value of the pound. Infrastructure spending is to prop up the value of sterling. If inflation rises, and the currency is dropping, the value of what is being built is going to be much less than being broadcasted. Once article 50 is signed off, that’s when the fun begins… 

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At least there's no mention in the Sky article of making the proposed new homes even tinier than they currently are - already the tiniest in europe if not the world - as Conservative Housing Minister Barwell was reported to suggest last October while having the cheek to call the idea "innovative".

It wasn't mentioned in the Sky article but that doesn't mean it isn't already part of the plan.

Quote

 

 

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The actual content of the article or proposal is entirely irrelevant, the sole purpose of this headline is to reinforce the notion that Housing crisis = Shortage of Houses.

Simple Supply and demand, innit. etc.

 

 

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37 minutes ago, billybong said:

At least there's no mention in the Sky article of making the proposed new homes even tinier than they currently are - already the tiniest in europe if not the world - as Conservative Housing Minister Barwell was reported to suggest last October while having the cheek to call the idea "innovative".

It wasn't mentioned in the Sky article but that doesn't mean it isn't already part of the plan.

 

The privatisation, subdivision and export of UK housing stock made up just about the entirety of Osborne's economic plans. Frankly, I'd be astonished if the current adminstration changed direction materially. The Tories have spoken for decades about making the UK 'the Hong Kong' of Europe, the concept of rabbit-hutches for homes is obviously consistent with that ambition.

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4 hours ago, Ah-so said:

It is indeed a land issue. The cost of building has fallen significantly relative to the cost of the land. 

A tiny fraction of our land is built on thanks to greenbelts that benefit no one but the NIMBYs. 

I'm not sure that the land you target as a class warrior would necessarily be the most useful - a reduction in the greenbelt around London by a mere mile would solve the south East's housing problem. 

Actually it's not even a land problem. 

I hate to pull people up on this, because there's a sense it which it is true.  Long-term, it is a land problem but the 21st century bubble is an additional acute crisis built on top of the long-term chronic injustice.

I agree that, if there really was a shortage of homes, simply dropping planning restrictions would fix the problem. Houses can easily be built to meet demand if land is available, but land can't.

Also, understanding the economics of land is absolutely key to understanding the emergency, and buildings are largely irrelevant to that.

Land value taxes really are the solution to the chronic problem, and should be put in place ASAP, but this was as true in the depths of the 90s recession as it is now.

Finally, the crisis has been maintained for so long, that sooner or later there really will be a shortage of residential land, and we might be approaching that point (houses per capita peaked in about 2010, if I remember rightly, and is shrinking, although well above historical levels; I haven't looked at the numbers for a year or so).

Anyway, as it stands, the number of houses per capita is well above historical levels.  There are enough houses for everyone to have one.  There are not enough houses for millions of people to have 2 or 3.

The current housing crisis is about excess demand, not supply shortage. The excess demand comes from too much debt being thrown at the market, particularly via landlords.  

The immediate solution is to restrict mortgage lending, and deal with the landlord infestation.  

Prices fell, worldwide, in 2008 until governments stepped in with more credit.  No houses were built, in fact building slowed, yet prices fell.

The housing crisis is primarily a debt problem, which could be ended in a short time with almost no effort. The housing shortage is a deliberate lie to obfuscate that, because the powers that be do not want the crisis to end.

 

Edited by BuyToLeech

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1 hour ago, BuyToLeech said:

Actually it's not even a land problem. 

I hate to pull people up on this, because there's a sense it which it is true.  Long-term, it is a land problem but the 21st century bubble is an additional acute crisis built on top of the long-term chronic injustice.

I agree that, if there really was a shortage of homes, simply dropping planning restrictions would fix the problem. Houses can easily be built to meet demand if land is available, but land can't.

Also, understanding the economics of land is absolutely key to understanding the emergency, and buildings are largely irrelevant to that.

Land value taxes really are the solution to the chronic problem, and should be put in place ASAP, but this was as true in the depths of the 90s recession as it is now.

Finally, the crisis has been maintained for so long, that sooner or later there really will be a shortage of residential land, and we might be approaching that point (houses per capita peaked in about 2010, if I remember rightly, and is shrinking, although well above historical levels; I haven't looked at the numbers for a year or so).

Anyway, as it stands, the number of houses per capita is well above historical levels.  There are enough houses for everyone to have one.  There are not enough houses for millions of people to have 2 or 3.

The current housing crisis is about excess demand, not supply shortage. The excess demand comes from too much debt being thrown at the market, particularly via landlords.  

The immediate solution is to restrict mortgage lending, and deal with the landlord infestation.  

Prices fell, worldwide, in 2008 until governments stepped in with more credit.  No houses were built, in fact building slowed, yet prices fell.

The housing crisis is primarily a debt problem, which could be ended in a short time with almost no effort. The housing shortage is a deliberate lie to obfuscate that, because the powers that be do not want the crisis to end.

 

I appreciate that the number of properties relative to the population has stayed fairly constant throughout, or as you note, even improved. This is something I learned in HPC.

What has changed is that the newer properties are smaller and have fewer bedrooms on average than the existing stock. Prior to the upsurge in population, the ratio of bedrooms to population was higher. And given that the incumbent population has moved relatively little over the past 15 years, the newer arrivals and younger people have been disproportionately squeezed into the newer, smaller properties. I remember posting some if the evidence about this into on the topic a couple of yeasts ago. 

I agree with you largely on the cause of high house prices - it is access to credit and the cheapness of it. This can be seen in the dislocation of house prices and rents.

The latter is the true cost of housing and not a function of interest rates, but rather the fundamental demand and supply for space. And while rents have not risen as fast as house prices, they have risen quite sharply, particularly in areas like London. 

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50 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

I appreciate that the number of properties relative to the population has stayed fairly constant throughout, or as you note, even improved. This is something I learned in HPC.

What has changed is that the newer properties are smaller and have fewer bedrooms on average than the existing stock. Prior to the upsurge in population, the ratio of bedrooms to population was higher. And given that the incumbent population has moved relatively little over the past 15 years, the newer arrivals and younger people have been disproportionately squeezed into the newer, smaller properties. I remember posting some if the evidence about this into on the topic a couple of yeasts ago. 

I agree with you largely on the cause of high house prices - it is access to credit and the cheapness of it. This can be seen in the dislocation of house prices and rents.

The latter is the true cost of housing and not a function of interest rates, but rather the fundamental demand and supply for space. And while rents have not risen as fast as house prices, they have risen quite sharply, particularly in areas like London. 

Not just improved a bit, improved significantly, at least during the first bubble (pre 2008).

I haven't seen straight data on bedrooms per capita, when I looked into it what evidence I could find suggested that this didn't change the basic point: there is no nationwide shortage of buildings, or bedrooms.

Moreover, the house count isn't the only evidence.  Rents are suggestive, as is the record number of multiple home owners.

That said, I don't oppose further building, and I don't deny that there are effects due to local shortages, that houses getting smaller, and so on. 

My position is that these effects just aren't significant when compared to the effects of the debt bubble and associated  Landlording fad.  It's the same mistake as treating WWII as a war between Germany and Britain.  Yes, but that wasn't the main event.

I'd be less bothered, and more willing to worry about the details, if it hadn't been politicised, and the fake housing shortage wasn't being used as an excuse for inaction. 

Saying that the housing crisis is surplus of demand is a hell of a lot closer to the truth than the opposite. 

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Apparently there are around 600,000 empty homes across Britain. Also around 250,000 homeless. Surely  the problem is not lack of homes it's lack of legislation (to stop such  inequality).

 

Edited by EnglishinWales

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