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Lone Voice Predicting House Price Falls In 2017

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Henry Pryor begs to differ as he alone forecasts house price falls across UK this year

Housing commentator Henry Pryor is forecasting an average drop of 4% in house prices across the UK this year.

He is alone among the housing experts who have given their forecasts to the BBC to predict a drop.

The others, including RICS, Nationwide and Halifax, are all forecasting rises of between 1% and 4% – and citing low supply in continuing to support high prices.

Pryor yesterday confirmed to EYE that he is expecting a price drop and said the market is facing a torrid time.

He said: “Everything points to things going bad from here.

“Money can’t get cheaper, wages are stagnant, London is slipping, Brexit blues will dominate and confidence will therefore lag.

“Because we are in that phase where people worry that what they buy today may be cheaper tomorrow, so they sit on their hands.

“There are more people who MUST sell than there are who MUST buy.

“Everyone is predicting fewer transactions which means (to me) fewer discretionary buyers/sellers and so the majority of sales will be those forced to move.

“Far fewer investors will want to pay top prices. They will want to feel they have a deal, won’t they?

“Yields have to rise and since rents can’t, capital values have to fall.

“I think this year looks really nasty.

“People in London (ok the top end) I speak to will only look at buying back in once prices have fallen by 30% (they have already slipped 10-15%) and even this would just take prices back to 2013.

“But more and more ordinary buyers are making offers: 85% of sales last month were below the guide, according to the NAEA. This is the trend, I think.”


Comments from estate agents:


I agree. Prices are dropping like a brick (we know because we are buying many properties in London at least 20% to 30% BMV). However stock is shockingly low. Amateur investors are slowly disappearing, FTB looking for deals. Agents starting to feel the pinch. There will be a bloodbath over the next few years. Only those who know what they are doing will come out winners.


Henry does come out with some mild twaddle from time to time but on this occasion I reckon he is spot on. Brexit uncertainties and realities will begin to heavily and nagatively influence home buying and selling as the year progresses.

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Heard a financial analyst recently say that mainstream predictions of 1-4% annual house price growth were ipso facto not credible (presumably because the mainstream naturally hesitate to forecast falls), and that he expected falls. I'm not sure how you can look at transaction volumes in London recently and not expect falls.

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