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1 hour ago, Kiwi Toast said:

Some beliefs have implications, but I don't think the beliefs we have been talking about do. But if they do, I don't know why you don't explain the causal mechanism by which thewig beliefs affect the housing market.

That is your belief.  It's a market made up of millions of views and beliefs.  

I will keep it simple.  Some take a superiority position, wanting to forgive other people's actions in the market, because they don't match their own, so they make up excuses such as ;programming;.

I have been generous to thewig, given I strongly disagree with some of his other positions, including about NASA.

 

1 hour ago, Kiwi Toast said:

If thewig admitted he was in favour of debt-forgiveness (he explicitly rejected this, so I'm not really sure there is much basis for disagreement. He did say "programming", but I think this may have been a careless comment, not to be taken literally) it wouldn't change anything. Thewig isn't deciding on a purchase or sale contigent on whether he believes in debt-forgiveness, and presumably the other readers of this thread aren't either. Venger is simply arguing, by his own admission, because his particular interpretation of thewig's post was offensive to him.

No it is his firm and repeated position, when it comes to those who own/buy houses, and presumably for all other matters - but here on home owner side. 

Renters have 'broken their programming'.

What to conclude from that apart for owners innocent?

And loads of others jump in on it, and on the general theme, pointing to one tv show where someone apparently claimed they didn't know interest rates can rise.  As they play Bomad they don't see themselves as financial illiterates at these prices though.

At these prices, in these circumstances (so many more BTLers) younger people can see the world in a conflict way to owners/BTLers.   More are making the choice, or having it made for them, that they can't buy at these prices.   Less emphasis on the owners (programmed innocence), more on the priced out renters, from my view.

On 1/5/2017 at 2:04 PM, thewig said:

Hell yes. It can be very alienating once you "wake up". We are also all deeply programmed from birth to respond in a certain way to critical thinkers or those who question the accepted narrative to our reality. Its far easier to go along to get along, but I also suspect many people have a deep held feeling something isn't right but cannot put their finger on it and the only avenues of exploration are red flagged by our own defence mechanisms "I must be going mad to consider that" then back to x factor and junk food etc.

 

On 1/5/2017 at 6:52 PM, thewig said:

the programming runs deep for sure, you've broken yours but the rest haven't, the question is what to do about it?

edit: metaphorical "you" and notional "the rest" rather than aimed at Venger and the rest of HPC

 

On 1/5/2017 at 11:22 PM, wherebee said:

But - just as religion was necessary for societies to function in the middle ages (without fear of punishment from god and a belief that things were the way they were because of the will of god, everyone would have just stolen/robbed what they could), perhaps given the current debt based economy and overpopulation, we NEED an uninformed populace to keep the debt engine running and people supine.  Else it is civil war time.

Just a thought.

Those who make themselves informed should be in better positions to others, not BTL people-farmed by them!

 

On 1/7/2017 at 11:40 AM, thewig said:

Doesn't matter what I want does it? My point was in my opinion the masses are acting per their programming. That includes taking on ever increasing levels of DEBT to keep the ponzi fuelled. Programmed from birth. Individuals are irrelevant in market terms and your argument whilst I agree with it completely, is from an individual's point of view. 

What we think of as doing the right thing is not any more,, from the markets perspective. The idiots taking on all the DEBT are doing exactly what they are supposed to do.

Fewer and fewer younger people as homeowners but as renters - and younger owners ostly at lower end of the market (unless enabled by Bomad or very well paid).  

More and more BTLers in recent years.

On 1/7/2017 at 3:54 PM, thewig said:

Venger your misrepresenting my position again. I cannot be arsed to go over it again, its only my opinion, I don't think DEBTjunkies should be let off paying their DEBTS, I dont' think they are victims of anything, but there is no disputing the vast majority of people live their lives in the way to which they have been programmed.

Wouldn't like you to be a Judge.  

"No one guilty of anything - just acting as per their programming."

There is only a bit of anger LTL - told you that last time, and there are good reasons for to be a bit pissed off and not be walked all over, given all the housing financialisation and BTLers.  I know what is good for my soul and health.

Banks banks banks - what about all those who hold the belief won't let prices fall, and the active buyers.  Banks can't write mortgages without willing buyers, and quite a few Bomad powered ones recently.

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3 hours ago, Bland Unsight said:

Interesting. Not exactly sure how it relates to my post. Or indeed the topic.

It seems to be something you feel very strongly about, so it's probably good to get it out of your system. It follows, does it not, from your earlier masterly synthesis of the myriad influences on house prices?

I think we can get this on topic.

My belief is that setting aside London the most significant explanation for the rise in the ratio between house prices and local earnings that you see in the DCLG statistics (ONS Live tables 577-578) is lending, in particular changes in lending practices. Personal favourite of mine is the discontinued Live table 576 (lower quartile house price to lower quartile earnings).

Lower+quartile+576.png

Now, I get the sense LTL that you are one of these admirable chaps who favour plain speaking, so let me speak plainly. You are ignorant; the fact that you hold the view that you do can only be explained by ignorance. Hence you've spent literally years on the forum accumulating literally thousands of posts and in terms of getting to grips with the role of the transformation of mortgage finance in the setting of house prices you appear to have learned effectively nothing (to your credit you appear to be presently advancing the much needed study of whether or not man landed on the moon, so hats off on that score).

Why is that on-topic, and not just a smart-@rse ad hom? Because that's part of financial literacy. If the terms under which credit is offered change then it is hugely significant for the price of any asset which is largely paid for with credit.

How in holy hell did somebody who was 18 in 2003 "make the bed"  they are expected to lie in come 2012, or 2017 for that matter, if that bed is in Ashford and they find out some puce-faced cretin has bought up literally hundreds of homes with mortgages that should never have been lent and (are now cluttering up the UKAR balance sheet)? And if your response to that is that they can go and live somewhere else, my question to you would be why the hell should they? Why is it OK for the mortgage lenders to transform themselves into insolvent incompetent predators and move millions of homes into the private rented sector?

 

It was the banks ...no shit Sherlock would have never worked that one out myself .did they land on the moon...not the banks or Fergus ...you seem to be 100% right about everything 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, long time lurking said:

It was the banks ...no shit Sherlock would have never worked that one out myself .did they land on the moon...not the banks or Fergus ...you seem to be 100% right about everything 

 

 

So now it was the banks who made your mystical "bed" and not the people sleeping in it? Make your mind up, my dear Watson.

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7 minutes ago, Venger said:

I will keep it simple.  Some take a superiority position, wanting to forgive other people's actions in the market

What difference does it make?

You want a house for you and your family at a reasonable price.

The 118ers want to overturn the recent tax changes.

Some people want to forgive debt.

I don't think there is any reason to believe that these wants make any difference unless they express themselves in the market action. So perhaps those who want section 24 repealed might put off selling, but only if they also believe there is a reasonable chance of it happening. So even then it's unlikely to make a difference to anything. But in the case of wanting to own a house or wanting debt-forgiveness it just seems to make no difference to anything.

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29 minutes ago, Bland Unsight said:

If you want to have the conversation about programming and responsibility that you allude to then start a thread and see who comes out to play. I have no sense of whether or not you genuinely want to have that conversation, let alone why you want to have it.

What do you make of thewig's claim that he doesn't believe the things of which he was accused? I think a likely reason is he said some things which could be interpreted in different ways (that one has to admit could be interpreted in a number of ways as it cannot be literally true - humans cannot be programmed). If it turned out that thewig's intended meaning differs from Venger's interpretation would it still be worth criticising the perspective attributed to thewig?

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6 minutes ago, Kiwi Toast said:

What do you make of thewig's claim that he doesn't believe the things of which he was accused? I think a likely reason is he said some things which could be interpreted in different ways (that one has to admit could be interpreted in a number of ways as it cannot be literally true - humans cannot be programmed). If it turned out that thewig's intended meaning differs from Venger's interpretation would it still be worth criticising the perspective attributed to thewig?

Beer foamy.

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29 minutes ago, Kiwi Toast said:

What difference does it make?

...I don't think there is any reason to believe that these wants make any difference unless they express themselves in the market action. So perhaps those who want section 24 repealed might put off selling, but only if they also believe there is a reasonable chance of it happening. So even then it's unlikely to make a difference to anything. But in the case of wanting to own a house or wanting debt-forgiveness it just seems to make no difference to anything.

It is difficult to measure.

Some discussion pushes back.  Re-read this thread about those believing HPC not possible, bailouts, to embrace the debtors who renters are hostage to debt (and all the BTLers) - and all the trillions in outright owner equity...

It pushes back.

 

What difference does anything on the forum make, you might also be asking... any of the discussion, apart from discussion that you believe is most important (I believe beliefs important)

Alternative views.  

If one mind gets influence that it won't be ForeverBailouts, perhaps 1%er might look to downsize (he owns) rather than keep going on about homeowner bailout.  

That some of us are firm and uncompromising in our HPC beliefs - against toppy housing financialisation (and now BTLers squealing with big political change).

If I don't push back against the 'ForeverBailout' / 'No HPC for VI won't let it happen' - 'Look at this buyers innocence.... whilst I bomad two of my own kids in the housing market / upsize.

 

On 1/5/2017 at 8:56 PM, One-percent said:

getting back on thread, my discontent is that to keep those plates spinning just a little longer, the government will in all probability bail out the feckless and indebted. I do hope not. And yes, once again, I'll say I hope there is a massive crash so that young people can buy a home. 

 

On 1/6/2017 at 4:07 PM, Sandwiches33 said:

Refuse to play.

... I have nothing against capitalism or the market but i just refuse to play in a rigged casino. I refuse to give my life labours to support a system which is ******ing me over at the moment.

Government has failed me, so i take personal responsibility to do something myself. It really wouldnt take many to act like me to really hurt the system.

Exactly.

On 1/6/2017 at 4:01 PM, Mrs Bear said:

... a slightly bigger house in a slightly nicer area.....

I hope all that hasn't sent your blood pressure through the roof. 

Bomad.

It can shake world-views of the BTLers looking in.  That some of us expect HPC, and pushback against 'programming' (innocence views).  Difficult to measure.

BTLers have told me to "crawl back under you rented rock"... having bought their <12 month baby a BTL for their housing future.

Forum acts as a way of pushing back to many views.

 

On 5/22/2015 at 1:01 AM, Bland Unsight said:

But what if what your what your daughter will want, in the fullness of time, is to grow up and make her own way in the world? To meet a young man, or a young woman, and establish her independence from you, so that she can meet you as an equal. Will the flat you've gifted be a dowry or sorts, or will she be encouraged to make a love match only with people who own their own homes, and not some loser who has crawled out from under their rented rock?

lightning-o.gif

Life is a rich web of connections. An apparently hyper-rational decision, informed by love, can have disastrous consequences. Just as the tracers of the incipient lightning strike work their way through disparate cascades towards the ground, a society that seeks to escape its debt problem by loading itself up with debts it cannot pay seeks only its own destruction. If that's what you really want for your daughter, are you right, or are you a monster? Seventy-months and counting on so-called emergency interest rates...

 

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What difference does anything on the forum make?

I got to be Venger's unapproved and probably unwanted and definitely unneeded wingman, and that is enough for me.

Also I got to kick some of the idiocy out of the pwoperdee mad cretins who rock up here.

It made a difference to me. I had fun.

Come and have a go if you think you're hard enough. Full disclosure: I have had some practice. I'm the starfish seeking euthanasia who bites when you pick it up, not quite a Banksian OCP, but certainly hard to handle.

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Just now, Venger said:

What difference does anything on the forum make, you might also be asking...

No. It's clear that some discussions are important. If people are persuaded on things which determine their actions and interactions with others that makes a difference.

This could happen through influencing the individual buying/selling decisions. If enough people were convinced to STR or enough BTLers were scared at the prospect of a crash, or enough buyers who persuaded to put off buying, a crash could be initiated by this change in sentiment. I think the decision to buy versus rent, or the decision to STR is more one of security/lifestyle for most people, so it might be hard to persuade. Also many people caution against give such advice to friends and family. I don't think it's hopeless, but perhaps not likely to make much difference.

I am more optimistic about disucssions about policy leading to political change. There are millions of people completely priced out. It would be a complete waste of time to persuade them that now is a bad time to buy. But if they are persuaded that we need tax reform and for the Bank of England to take house prices into account and we need more restrictive regulation and heavier taxation of BTLs etc. then politicians would be more likely to set sensible policies. They have been able to get away with counter-productive boosts to demand because there isn't widespread understanding of the causes of the housing crisis and there isn't anything like a co-ordinated campaign for sensible policies.

A slightly disconcerting feature of discussions of politics in relation to housing in the board recently has been the observation that the demographics of the electorate are such that politicians will have to dispose with the old approach of favouring homeowners as these are a dwindling proportion of the electorate. This is only necessarily the case if housing is the number one problen and people agree on the policies which will solve it. First we have to understand, then explain and organise.

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Just now, Bland Unsight said:

Sorry, I was wrong. You are an idiot.

If someone has a deposit of £5,000 and an income of £20,000 there no point persuading them that buying a flat for £250,000 is a bad idea. They simply don't have the option.

I don't know why, but most homeowners won't consider STR.

So it seems to me there is little likelihood of persuading market participants to behave differently.

But there are millions in both categories who can be informed about how the government has created the housing crisis and has made it worse through counter-productive "solutions." If they could organise around certain policies, politicians might start taking them seriously.

How many readers of this thread are weighing up whether to buy or sell? How many might be prepared to engage politically?

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On ‎07‎/‎01‎/‎2017 at 3:54 PM, thewig said:

Venger your misrepresenting my position again. I cannot be arsed to go over it again, its only my opinion, I don't think DEBTjunkies should be let off paying their DEBTS, I dont' think they are victims of anything, but there is no disputing the vast majority of people live their lives in the way to which they have been programmed. You repeatedly make the mistake (wilfully or otherwise) of conflating my observation with my condonation. Stop it.

I make observations about the world all the time, I condone very few of them, you seem to think that whatever I post I am condoning, no I am able to objectively observe something without at the same time condone or condemn it. Just posting my observations, you don't like my observations (nor do I) but that doesn't mean I agree with them because I have seen them. You've got a blind spot here, maybe I have too who knows, but you don't seem to read what I'm actually saying before tipping into your well trodden rant about innocents and market participants etc which I agree with entirely. You're off base here my friend.

 

Pretty clear that thewig denies the accusation.

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22 minutes ago, Bland Unsight said:

I got to be Venger's unapproved and probably unwanted and definitely unneeded wingman, and that is enough for me.

Also I got to kick some of the idiocy out of the pwoperdee mad cretins who rock up here.

It made a difference to me. I had fun.

Come and have a go if you think you're hard enough. Full disclosure: I have had some practice. I'm the starfish seeking euthanasia who bites when you pick it up, not quite a Banksian OCP, but certainly hard to handle.

:lol:

Also, thanks for stepping in.  I would have been overwhelmed pushing back by myself.

Quote

We may have an OCP. They may want your help, at any price. Are you interested?
oo
An Outside Context Problem? Really? Very well. Keep me informed, do.

---

An Outside Context Problem was the sort of thing most civilisations encountered just once, and which they tended to encounter rather in the same way a sentence encountered a full stop.

 

1 minute ago, Kiwi Toast said:

Pretty clear that thewig denies the accusation.

While making it his central point, and repeatedly posting about 'programming' for the homeowner and btler and home buyer side, imo.  

He may be accepting of the main point where BTLers overleveraged OO (inc those into BTL) or BOMAD powered buyers who struggle have to meet realities, and adjust, if market ever turns against them, but regardless all his posts about 'programming' chill me.  

'Programming' that just so happens to coincide with what many market participants want in their lives.... to own nice houses and to own nice cars etc - and have their own freewill in life.'   

Hands up all those who are programmed with limited free-will of their own?   Own up to that! 

Quote

Han Solo: Kid, I've flown from one side of this galaxy to the other, and I've seen a lot of strange stuff, but I've never seen *anything* to make me believe that there's one all-powerful Force controlling everything. 'Cause no mystical energy field controls *my* destiny.

We've even had HPIers who had spreadsheets on how much their homes going to be worth in the future, counting mad HPI, outbidding others for that house.  Their own choice as others recoiled from the asking price.

 And the BTLers have done that repeatedly, with their own market view and egos about Generation Rent, and avarice.   If they took a moment to live the lives of their renters, they may come to a different programming.  Yet one with 40+ houses does see his tenants, and one working 3 jobs.... but wants to hold mass S21 notice day across the country to keep his mad-gainz, whinging about S24.   Not programming.  Choice and life views.  

Now concerned about CGT contagion in their housing portfolios.  It's their own market decisions.

When it comes to homeowners/BTLers/homebuyers people are 'programmed'.   

Renter side have magically managed to break from the programming - sheeesssshhhh.

Quote


Home Ownership much lower
Started by jiltedjen, December 27, 2016


Multiple-home ownership...Much higher.

The think tank, which lobbies for low-income families, calculated that 51% of families or individuals own a home.

It is calling for more attention to be paid to the millions of others who rent.

"Our new analysis shows that we should perhaps obsess a little less about homeowners, and think more about how the other half live," it said.

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Venger said:

And the BTLers have done that repeatedly, with their own market view and egos about Generation Rent, and avarice.   If they took a moment to live the lives of their renters, they may come to a different programming.  Yet one with 40+ houses does see his tenants, and one working 3 jobs.... but wants to hold mass S21 notice day across the country to keep his mad-gainz, whinging about S24.   Not programming.  Choice and life views.  

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34 minutes ago, Venger said:

Also, thanks for stepping in.  I would have been overwhelmed pushing back by myself.

You would have been just fine.

You're just better at this than they are. You know more, your heart is in the right place and you are whole. They never stand a chance. If you do decide to take a break from posting, enjoy it. These people who propose that they hold you in contempt are fools. I love the fact that you never return their contempt with contempt. You are conspicuously a whole soul and I am sure that the people you rub actual, physical shoulders with appreciate it.

I envy you. I'm a bit of broken biscuit who derives inordinate pleasure from f**king up BTL troll tw@ts and is using that disposition as an excuse for not weeding the garden or commissioning the services of a gardener. There's a BTL garden that speaks brazenly to my faults.

However, that does put me in a good position to hold the line for a bit whilst you take a break.

Peace out!

 

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1 hour ago, Kiwi Toast said:

If someone has a deposit of £5,000 and an income of £20,000 there no point persuading them that buying a flat for £250,000 is a bad idea. They simply don't have the option.

I don't know why, but most homeowners won't consider STR.

So it seems to me there is little likelihood of persuading market participants to behave differently.

But there are millions in both categories who can be informed about how the government has created the housing crisis and has made it worse through counter-productive "solutions." If they could organise around certain policies, politicians might start taking them seriously.

How many readers of this thread are weighing up whether to buy or sell? How many might be prepared to engage politically?

For the record, this post above was a response the post "Sorry, I was wrong. You are an idiot."

What the f**k kind of troll idiot replies to a post consisting entirely of the words "Sorry, I was wrong. You are an idiot." with some bizarre waffle about why homeowners don't sell to rent? :blink:

F**k this dancing around the facts shit, I am calling this one.

fremont-troll-bridge.jpg

 

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3 hours ago, Kiwi Toast said:

The 118ers want to overturn the recent tax changes.

I respect your choice of calling them "118ers", but I prefer "PovertyLater tw@ts".

If you, like Blue Peter with their talk of "sticky tape" not Sellotape, prefer a non-branded term (e.g. "generic over-leveraged BTL c**ts" perhaps?) I can roll (no pun intended) with that.

Developing your post about the over-leveraged morons and their tax problems, do you think that they are financially illiterate? If so, why have we created a financial system that will lend the financially illiterate money to bet on residential property? Does that sound like a good idea?

How do you propose that we organise politically to deal with the problem of the financially illiterate buy-to-let investors being lent money they'll never repay?

 

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7 minutes ago, Bland Unsight said:

How do you propose that we organise politically to deal with the problem of the financially illiterate buy-to-let investors being lent money they'll never repay?

 

The same way people normally organise. Try to reach people who perceive a problem (those struggling find a decent place to live, who would like to buy but can't afford it and those who care about the plight of others in this situation - this could be anyone, but may particularly be those who worry about their children's housing worries) and explain the causes and the solutions.

It may be in the next few years prices return to sensible income multiples as BTLers are forced to sell. But if they don't, further policies may be required, and I think this is most likely to come about as a result of renter-savers and fellow travellers exerting political pressure.

If you think you can persuade people to STR have a look at this:

I think it's harder to influence people who are in a position to participate in the market (potential buyers and sellers) than it is to convince people (particularly those who are priced out, but others too) to demand better housing policy.

 

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4 minutes ago, Kiwi Toast said:

The same way people normally organise. Try to reach people who perceive a problem (those struggling find a decent place to live, who would like to buy but can't afford it and those who care about the plight of others in this situation - this could be anyone, but may particularly be those who worry about their children's housing worries) and explain the causes and the solutions.

giphy.gif

The delusional morons on PovertyLater might feel that thirty of the most over-leveraged cretins in the country finding the next 30,000 equally over-leveraged cretins represents a movement, but the facts are in on that. It ain't so. The role of an internet forum is to provide a place for people who are interested in a given thing to talk to other people who are interested in the same thing. Stop smelling your own farts and start lighting them, at least that is a party trick.

We are observers and commentators. We are reading the tides and not making the tides.

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1 hour ago, Bland Unsight said:

For the record, this post above was a response the post "Sorry, I was wrong. You are an idiot."

What the f**k kind of troll idiot replies to a post consisting entirely of the words "Sorry, I was wrong. You are an idiot." with some bizarre waffle about why homeowners don't sell to rent? :blink:

F**k this dancing around the facts shit, I am calling this one.

fremont-troll-bridge.jpg

 

ism't that the carved troll under the bridge in sydney near where I used to live?

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On 05/01/2017 at 11:44 PM, wonderpup said:

In reality when a loan is made and the money paid into the borrowers account no' loan shaped' hole appears anywhere else on the banks books to show where that money came from- because it did not come from anywhere, it was just created out of nothing. The money being lent out is a product of the loan agreement itself- bank loans are in effect monetised promises to repay with interest.

I used to think that but that's not how it works.

Only the central bank gets to create money out of nothing. The commercial banks use deposits to make loans, that money gets spent but the it comes back into someone else's account, that then gets loaned out to someone else etc.  So the original deposit can effectively be used over and over again.

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Bring on the halt.  Savers are not going to get wiped out from your fear-positioning.  I am not scared.

You are not scared because you don't understand how a ponzi scheme works- nor do you understand that your 'savings' are part of the current ponzi scheme we call 'the economy'.

Your savings represent a claim on that economy, so if that economy were to grind to a halt because people stopped taking on debt you would in effect have a claim on nothing.

So your wealth and other people's debts are in a symbiotic relationship- you need the debts of others to faciitate the economic activity that gives your wealth it's potency.

If everyone in the country woke up in the morning and agreed with your view that debt is something to be avoided the result would be a decline in economic activity as the amount of money circulating in the system dried up as old debts were paid down and no new debts were taken out to replace them.

So don't be too hard on the indebted- they are the people who maintain the value of your accumulated claims on the system in the form of savings.

 

 

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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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