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Financial illiteracy


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:lol: :lol::lol:

House prices so ultra expensive in many areas, years of BTL double down (debt - and many now with contagion in their housing portfolios)

11 hours ago, wonderpup said:

Given that virtually all the money in the system has to be borrowed into existence by someone, from a certain point of view your lack of indebtedness makes you kind of parasitic- if everyone followed your debt free lifestyle the entire system would collapse as the money supply shrank to zero.

So rather than condemn those carrying large debts you should perhaps be thanking them- it's their willingness to take on debt that protects your savings from being wiped out in a systemic meltdown-because a shrinking money supply = death to the system as trade becomes impossible.

The reality is that the only thing keeping the whole absurd show on the road now is the willingness of some to keep on borrowing money- this is how insane the system is.

So strange as the idea might seem, the truth is that debtors are your freinds- so be a little nicer to them if you can.:D

 

And yet you're here wonderpup - earlier on this thread (and on many others)- adamant that glorious debtors have no idea how lending works and that banks make debt from nothing.

You can not have it both ways.

Let them go under if these 'innocents' don't understand debt - for a deflationary collapse and savers savings to be worth more (have some meaning to house prices and other inflated asset values) after asset price correction.

They debtors are not in any way providing my side with anything - we are productive.  Debtors can be productive too - but not all debt is productive debt.  BTLers for example.... they are denying younger people from advancing and getting a fair position in life (to homeownership) and the Bomads (enabling others to pay more with more mortgage debt).  

GS - 

Read through the thread and we find many posters claiming it will be homeowner bailout (some of them handily homeowners themselves) - how debtors don't understand debt (the innocent victims).  Of course it will be 'dribs and drabs' if they are treated and bailed as innocents - some projecting the borrowers this way while playing bomad themselves and not able to see house prices fall themselves.

GS it is not about all the horrors in the world (people with real problems... health/war).  The housing situation is entirely separate.  I am not going to 'thank my lucky stars' for just being alive and in fair health - against very high housing prices / housing bubble, greed, complacency and years of runaway housing financialisation (that I am confident is coming to an end; HPC).      

My position is not one of anger or bitterness but one of fight and strength - the YouTube link under my avatar.

2 hours ago, Grumpysod said:

there are a dozen or more arguments to suggest it is all a mess and that life is not fair, but life is not fair and that is the end of it. you can only do your best to change things for the better,

And what are you doing on HPC to change things for the better?

Post after post that the VI won't allow house prices to fall...... in face of S24, SDLT surcharge, PRA, MMR, Basel II/III.  Rippling concern through BTL landlord forums such as PovertyLater and Tribals, on the attack of the BTLer core-voters.  Laughable maneuvering to get Gov to reverse S24.  Everything coming together. 

2 hours ago, Grumpysod said:

I just ask some posters on this board to understand that there are so many uses for this boards existence, most of them I am quite certain understand that UK housing is in a mess and unfair, some come here to let off steam and explain their anger and frustration, some to suggest what we should do about it, and some even to bring us news and hope as to why it could all be ending anytime soon. I think deep down that is why so many use this board they are hoping one day soon that there will be that magic poster that convinces us that this mess will end soon, but those types of post rarely ever come.

There are a few super posters who do this with enjoyable critical analysis - repeatedly -  against a now (max-peak I hope) run of depressing doubters and doomsters that 'HPC can't happen'.  Many HPCers seem to dismiss some impressive analysis and go back to can't happen because of VI.

Not my fault you can't be convinced and would prefer to double-down on everything from HPI land, on HPC, why HPC won't happen.  VI VI VI.

Other doomsters who say it will be 'homeowner bailout' simply on their own belief structures (some homeowners themselves, others playing bomad and who see no hpc risks, and point to innocent debtors who don't understand debt.).  That 'borrowers don't know what they're doing' etc etc, that 'people who buy houses and new cars being taken advantage of because of programming' - but 'be grateful for those borrowers anyway'! 

I am hyper optimistic for HPC and push back against the doomsters on HPC who are claiming HPC very unlikely (clinging on to belief structures alone), often with their own VI, and putting up human shields infront of it.   Or positions riddled about innocent debtors, vs, how we should be grateful for those debtors.  'Programming' innocence for those who want the best, or have the most.  Don't we all want a nice life - we each make market choices in a competitive market, as we each read the market, and those market choices matter - and we are responsible for them.

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17 hours ago, Kiwi Toast said:

But we could be having fun and discussing questions which have implications.

I was reading a few of the comments on Conservative home under a piece about the forthcoming housing white paper 

 

Quote

Britcoin · 2 days ago

I've never understood this 'housing crisis'. Apart from those poor souls who always seem to fall through the cracks, pretty much everyone has a bed for the night? 

As to the young complaining about buying a house, what has changed? It always took a massive effort for a couple to buy, and if you were single even more difficult.

Then there's this:

home-ownership-by-age-cohort-2015(3).png

and this:

housing-tenure(3).png

Same source for both.

I agree with Venger that there is a strand of thinking amongst some posters that people are somehow not making active decisions when they buy houses and this notion of programming is one way in which this strand of thinking is expressed.

I think that the analysis is superficially attractive because it casts the analyst as the individual who can see what others cannot, or perhaps we are envisaging that we are immune to the programming for some reason?

Venger has patiently shot down this line of argument, and with good reason. Whilst some buyers are more credulous than others the proposition that we have arrived at the present level of house prices because of financial illiteracy or programming will need to be rejected if it is wrong. One swallow does not make a summer and one sister with muddled ideas about mortgages is a great anecdote, but not the last word on the matter.

Lots of people come to the forum for lots of different reasons. I find Grumpysod's endless (and witless) moaning mindbogglingly tedious so I just scroll past it, but I respect that he might come here to moan (or left off steam, or whatever other circumlocution he prefers on any given day to describe his burning desire to complain). It appears that a fair few posters end up with crumpled egos when Venger takes them to task for the poverty of their analysis. They have a range of options; they can scroll past, they can respond with ad hominem arguments or they can argue their case. I'm sure there are other approaches too.

The notion of programming fails in the context of UK housing today because what we really have is a not a crisis but a conflict. People, like Britcoin, who own housing outright and have benefited as a consequence see matters one way, those who have been excluded from ownership see matters very differently. There is no programming because there is no consensus.

Hence, returning to your original point ("But we could be having fun and discussing questions which have implications"), thewig makes an assertion about something that either is or isn't a matter of fact ("the vast majority of people live their lives in the way to which they have been programmed"). Venger rejects that assertion. The truth, or otherwise, of that assertion matters and has implications.

I fully accept Grumpysod's right to view the forum as a circle-jerk for whingers and also respect his right to log-in hoping to be metaphorically jacked-off on that basis. However, it's also legitimate for others to regard the forum as a place to present one's views expecting to have them challenged and hoping that they might be changed as a result. All too often people respond to Venger based on the shock of being forced to look at their rather confused position being breezily torn to shreds. Often what they miss is that Venger is not only being kind enough to actually read and respond, he's also pursuing their line of argument and considering its consequences. Yes, the experience can be rather chastening, but it's a forum so surely one should to expect to find discussion, and therefore disagreement. Even when people are queuing round the block to make Venger the bad guy, that doesn't make it the truth. People shouldn't expect agreement and they shouldn't be so precious about their views. Toughen up a little. It's a big, bad world out there.

 

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15 hours ago, Venger said:

I have no debt.

Don't know any renter-savers in my family or wider friend group who have any debt.

We're crushed by very expensive house prices, BTLers on the people farm.

Here you are claiming what - to sort things out there needs to be more debt-forgiveness for those in debt (BTLers etc / hipsters latest buyers in in San Fran / SoCal powered by Bomad - have you seen the bubble prices there of real estate?), so they can have the load lightened to spend and borrow more 'for growth' ??

Before you can propose a solution you need to know what the problem is. There's no point pushing back if you're stood alone in a revolving door.

The crisis was caused by an excess of private sector debt and a belief in the infallibility of the market. Conventional and unconventional Keynesian efforts to deleverage the world's economies since 2008 have conspicuously failed. A decade on from the GFC, the world is still drowning in debt. What else should we do? What else can we do?

People's QE is re-inflationary tool, nothing more. Economies are far too complex to fix with a single instrument. I have no idea how successful it might be, or even if it will work at all. The issue of fairness is problematic. Who gets a cheque, who doesn't? How much inflation will be sufficient to extinguish the bubble of phantom equity in the housing market? How do we ensure the process won't be gamed by the banksters? I don't pretend to know the answers to those questions but I do think they're worth exploring. One thing I am certain of, however. Unless and until private sector debt is brought back below 100% of GDP there will be no recovery.

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2 hours ago, Bland Unsight said:

I was reading a few of the comments on Conservative home under a piece about the forthcoming housing white paper 

 

Then there's this:

home-ownership-by-age-cohort-2015(3).png

and this:

housing-tenure(3).png

Same source for both.

I agree with Venger that there is a strand of thinking amongst some posters that people are somehow not making active decisions when they buy houses and this notion of programming is one way in which this strand of thinking is expressed.

I think that the analysis is superficially attractive because it casts the analyst as the individual who can see what others cannot, or perhaps we are envisaging that we are immune to the programming for some reason?

Venger has patiently shot down this line of argument, and with good reason. Whilst some buyers are more credulous than others the proposition that we have arrived at the present level of house prices because of financial illiteracy or programming will need to be rejected if it is wrong. One swallow does not make a summer and one sister with muddled ideas about mortgages is a great anecdote, but not the last word on the matter.

Lots of people come to the forum for lots of different reasons. I find Grumpysod's endless (and witless) moaning mindbogglingly tedious so I just scroll past it, but I respect that he might come here to moan (or left off steam, or whatever other circumlocution he prefers on any given day to describe his burning desire to complain). It appears that a fair few posters end up with crumpled egos when Venger takes them to task for the poverty of their analysis. They have a range of options; they can scroll past, they can respond with ad hominem arguments or they can argue their case. I'm sure there are other approaches too.

The notion of programming fails in the context of UK housing today because what we really have is a not a crisis but a conflict. People, like Britcoin, who own housing outright and have benefited as a consequence see matters one way, those who have been excluded from ownership see matters very differently. There is no programming because there is no consensus.

Hence, returning to your original point ("But we could be having fun and discussing questions which have implications"), thewig makes an assertion about something that either is or isn't a matter of fact ("the vast majority of people live their lives in the way to which they have been programmed"). Venger rejects that assertion. The truth, or otherwise, of that assertion matters and has implications.

I fully accept Grumpysod's right to view the forum as a circle-jerk for whingers and also respect his right to log-in hoping to be metaphorically jacked-off on that basis. However, it's also legitimate for others to regard the forum as a place to present one's views expecting to have them challenged and hoping that they might be changed as a result. All too often people respond to Venger based on the shock of being forced to look at their rather confused position being breezily torn to shreds. Often what they miss is that Venger is not only being kind enough to actually read and respond, he's also pursuing their line of argument and considering its consequences. Yes, the experience can be rather chastening, but it's a forum so surely one should to expect to find discussion, and therefore disagreement. Even when people are queuing round the block to make Venger the bad guy, that doesn't make it the truth. People shouldn't expect agreement and they shouldn't be so precious about their views. Toughen up a little. It's a big, bad world out there.

 

We all make our own choices it`s that simple some chose to rent for many reasons others choose to by for many reasons blaming one lot for the others perceived  shit situation helps no one we all make our own beds if you don`t like the bed you have made get the feck out of it  .

 

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And yet you're here wonderpup - earlier on this thread (and on many others)- adamant that glorious debtors have no idea how lending works and that banks make debt from nothing.

You can not have it both ways.

You need to join the dots here- start from the point where we have as a society given private banks the power to create our currency for profit, then realise that the way they create our currency and make their profit is by creating debts- then realise that the system has zero incentive to educate people about this arrangment because the system is entirely dependant on people taking on debt.

Think of it as a giagantic hamsters wheel in which the indebted must toil in order to keep the wheel spinning- you sit outside that wheel as a debt free hamster but you still need that wheel to keep spinning otherwise your job and then your savings will be vaporised by the resulting crash as the wheel grinds to halt.

I am not defending this arrangment- I think it's insane- but it is you who are trying have it both ways- if you want to be a saver not a debtor then you must accept the fact that other people will need to borrow more in order for you to be debt free- because debt is not optional in our system, it is essential.

Thus- viewed in aggregate- debt is unavoidable so long as the system is organised the way it is.

So you are wasting your time attacking the hamsters who toil in the debt wheel- you should instead be attacking those who created this system and those who maintain it.

The fantasy that if everyone stopped playing the game a degree of sanity and equilibrium would be achived is wrong- if everyone stopped playing the game the game would be over and it would take you down with it.

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2 hours ago, Bland Unsight said:

Hence, returning to your original point ("But we could be having fun and discussing questions which have implications"), thewig makes an assertion about something that either is or isn't a matter of fact ("the vast majority of people live their lives in the way to which they have been programmed"). Venger rejects that assertion. The truth, or otherwise, of that assertion matters and has implications.

Whether people are programmed is either true or untrue has implications but is independent of what Venger, thewig, you or I believe. If we are all incorrect about this it doesn't change how the economy functions.

Whether people believe people are programmed might matter if it influences policy. E.g. if Venger is right and millions of renter-savers literally beg politicians to help the homeowners and BTLers in negative equity when the crash comes. The reason I was arguing it doesn't really matter is I don't think millions of people are reading this thread and being persuaded by Venger.

Are there any implications which I've missed?

 

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40 minutes ago, wonderpup said:

You need to join the dots here- start from the point where we have as a society given private banks the power to create our currency for profit, then realise thcept the fact that other people will need to borrow more in order for you to be debt free- because debt is not optional in our system, it is essential.

Thus- viewed in aggregate- debt is unavoidable so long as the system is organised the way it is.

So you are wasting your time attacking the hamsters who toil in the debt wheel- you should instead be attacking those who created this system and those who maintain it.

Exactly and it's very hard to actually see this (to reflect on how the economy functions) if everything gets turned into a debate over whether someone once expressed sympathy for debt junkies.

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Human programming is as obvious as light.

I only understood it fully once I had kids. They come out blank. Physical stuff gets carried in genes and DNA, but early behaviour is programmed (either intentionally or indirectly) until choice comes along (terrible twos and threenagers). 

Some humans turn the mirror on themselves and start on the long journey of self-analysis and reprogramming to rid themselves of the parts they dislike. Some won't even realise they're programmed and will go through life unaware and unconcerned over why they do what they do.

To have the position that everyone should automatically have the ability to make the 'correct' or 'perfect' decision all the time which is absent from influence of any sort is comical and naive. Even more so when considering the relentless multi billion $ industry that is in existence precisely because the above is absolutely true.

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1 hour ago, long time lurking said:

We all make our own choices it`s that simple some chose to rent for many reasons others choose to by for many reasons blaming one lot for the others perceived  shit situation helps no one we all make our own beds if you don`t like the bed you have made get the feck out of it  .

 

Did you even look/read those charts Bland posted up?

Millions of renters-savers ("these people") are doing something, including those on very good incomes - they are refusing to buy, or unable to buy (MMR) against massively inflated house prices in many areas.

We now have a series of great measures feeding through including Section24, SDLT surcharge, to get really excited about.

Although some have different views to house prices - seeing them as affordable - not in the wider areas I track.

On 12/4/2016 at 4:22 PM, long time lurking said:

I post on selected threads but avoid the i`m a renter prisoner type ones it`s just  to tedious these days ....if you are working and funding the rent out of ones wages one can afford to buy that house in most parts of the country  ,,,it`s a choice no ones forcing most of these people to rent 

 

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1 hour ago, long time lurking said:

We all make our own choices it`s that simple some chose to rent for many reasons others choose to by for many reasons blaming one lot for the others perceived  shit situation helps no one we all make our own beds if you don`t like the bed you have made get the feck out of it  .

Interesting. Not exactly sure how it relates to my post. Or indeed the topic.

It seems to be something you feel very strongly about, so it's probably good to get it out of your system. It follows, does it not, from your earlier masterly synthesis of the myriad influences on house prices?

I think we can get this on topic.

My belief is that setting aside London the most significant explanation for the rise in the ratio between house prices and local earnings that you see in the DCLG statistics (ONS Live tables 577-578) is lending, in particular changes in lending practices. Personal favourite of mine is the discontinued Live table 576 (lower quartile house price to lower quartile earnings).

Lower+quartile+576.png

Now, I get the sense LTL that you are one of these admirable chaps who favour plain speaking, so let me speak plainly. You are ignorant; the fact that you hold the view that you do can only be explained by ignorance. Hence you've spent literally years on the forum accumulating literally thousands of posts and in terms of getting to grips with the role of the transformation of mortgage finance in the setting of house prices you appear to have learned effectively nothing (to your credit you appear to be presently advancing the much needed study of whether or not man landed on the moon, so hats off on that score).

Why is that on-topic, and not just a smart-@rse ad hom? Because that's part of financial literacy. If the terms under which credit is offered change then it is hugely significant for the price of any asset which is largely paid for with credit.

How in holy hell did somebody who was 18 in 2003 "make the bed"  they are expected to lie in come 2012, or 2017 for that matter, if that bed is in Ashford and they find out some puce-faced cretin has bought up literally hundreds of homes with mortgages that should never have been lent and (are now cluttering up the UKAR balance sheet)? And if your response to that is that they can go and live somewhere else, my question to you would be why the hell should they? Why is it OK for the mortgage lenders to transform themselves into insolvent incompetent predators and move millions of homes into the private rented sector?

 

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1 hour ago, wonderpup said:

You need to join the dots here- start from the point where we have as a society given private banks the power to create our currency for profit, then realise that the way they create our currency and make their profit is by creating debts- then realise that the system has zero incentive to educate people about this arrangment because the system is entirely dependant on people taking on debt.

Think of it as a giagantic hamsters wheel in which the indebted must toil in order to keep the wheel spinning- you sit outside that wheel as a debt free hamster but you still need that wheel to keep spinning otherwise your job and then your savings will be vaporised by the resulting crash as the wheel grinds to halt.

 

Bring on the halt.  Savers are not going to get wiped out from your fear-positioning.  I am not scared.  Have you missed what the banks have been doing last few years, and the BTLers taking on additional risk, leaving themselves open to take the hard losses (not the banks).

Banks also need churn, which quite a few of us thinks requires allowing bubble-heads and BTLers and overstretched business take some downward valuation, to allow new entrants to borrow.   1980s levels of housing transactions.

Not to have 'innocents' who are 'programmed' dance and double-down into BTL (as they have in recent years).. and double-Bomads point to someone who claims she doesn't know interest rates can rise (oooh innocence whilst helping others buy into the market).

Quite a few of us are not hostages to the debtors for our incomes, and also priced out by them -, which also supports £Trillions in outright equity of older owners and BTLers (who would love to see double down debt-continuation forever at ever higher house prices and their top positions secured even further than these extremes).

Bring on the crunch.  Borrower side (MMR and PRA) - for this time the banks can handle the HPC.  Lots of BTLers all lined up for CGT revenue farming by HRMC, Deputy Gov BoE seemingly looking forward to BTLers selling to FTBs.

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28 minutes ago, Kiwi Toast said:

Whether people are programmed is either true or untrue has implications but is independent of what Venger, thewig, you or I believe. If we are all incorrect about this it doesn't change how the economy functions.

Whether people believe people are programmed might matter if it influences policy. E.g. if Venger is right and millions of renter-savers literally beg politicians to help the homeowners and BTLers in negative equity when the crash comes. The reason I was arguing it doesn't really matter is I don't think millions of people are reading this thread and being persuaded by Venger.

Are there any implications which I've missed?

I don't know about implications, but my feeling is that you've missed the point.

The forum consists of threads. On those threads people make posts. Some of those posts involve disagreeing with other posts. If Venger wants to criticise a particular line of argument then doing so is a conventional part of the discourse on the forum.

If other posters don't like having their position attacked there is a range of perfectly reasonable approaches that they can take.

You are making the argument that Venger is unlikely to influence the direction of policy on a national level by staking out a particular position on this thread, and I am inclined to agree. However, you are implicitly asserting that therefore he should not be staking out that position on this thread, and that is where I get off the bus.

If a particular strand in a thread doesn't interest you, don't read it.

I think there's also an important error in your assertion "whether people are programmed is either true or untrue has implications but is independent of what Venger, thewig, you or I believe. If we are all incorrect about this it doesn't change how the economy functions". What we believe is actually crucial. I'd guess that much of the time, in the complicated mess that is human affairs, the truth of things is not known and cannot be known. I can't remember who it was but I do remember a pithy post from some old lag who explained that house prices are going up because they are going up. People act one way if they believe house prices are going up, they act a different way if they believe they are going down. At any stage between a trough and the next peak I'd argue that reasoning based on rational expectations and prices converging on the right price was just b0llocks. The driver of prices is simply people's beliefs regarding the direction of prices. I'd even venture that in contexts like that there is no truth, there is only belief. In light of that, discussion of belief is inevitable (and perfectly reasonable).

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2 minutes ago, Grumpysod said:

I love it when these little 5 ft 4" men have their companies send them on assertive training courses and come back think being assertive is then being rude to people or shouting at them :)

How do you feel about the big 5 ft 4" men?

Maybe guess my weight next and see if you can craft an equally witless tautological ad hominem out of that too. I'll give you a clue, it begins with a number and ends with a unit. Clown.

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21 minutes ago, Bland Unsight said:

I don't know about implications, but my feeling is that you've missed the point.

I asked Venger what the implications are and this was his reply:

20 hours ago, Venger said:

Nothing but what does it add?   Millions loves HPI and BTLism - get enough of that in real world.  

If thewig admitted he was in favour of debt-forgiveness (he explicitly rejected this, so I'm not really sure there is much basis for disagreement. He did say "programming", but I think this may have been a careless comment, not to be taken literally) it wouldn't change anything. Thewig isn't deciding on a purchase or sale contigent on whether he believes in debt-forgiveness, and presumably the other readers of this thread aren't either. Venger is simply arguing, by his own admission, because his particular interpretation of thewig's post was offensive to him. My point was simply to gently ask if there was anything more to the argument and if not to encourage the contributors (clearly we are all quite passionate about HPC) to focus on substantive issues.

Alternatively in other threads people have disagreed about the relative importance of low interest rates, QE, tenancy laws, CGT, IHT, stamp duty, council tax, housing planning and supply, immigration etc. in explaining house prices. Decisions about buying or selling might be influenced by reading A Goodbye to all that Buy to Let or some other well made arguments on this board. The potential for political persuasion is clearly much greater as this includes those who are not contemplating buying or selling. This really matters.

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On 1/7/2017 at 6:15 PM, Kiwi Toast said:

Why does it matter? If someone said "actually I do condone it", or "I don't believe they are responsible as they have been programmed" what would be the impact?

 

23 hours ago, Kiwi Toast said:

But we could be having fun and discussing questions which have implications.

Beliefs have implications.  As Si1 takes his market readings from beliefs, I do too - including that of complacency.  

  • "Homeowner: Would like HPC, but most likely home-owner bailouts / savers to be wiped out / Weimar inflation"
  • VI won't let (HPC) happen)
  • Buyers are programmed innocents.
  • Whole system runs on debt and those debtors don't even know how banks make money, so they are innocent for borrowing loads of it to enjoy best things in life above others  - but got to worship those debtors because they are other side of your debt in a house price bubble and if we allow them to meet some reality you will get wiped out as a saver because millions of renters are just hostages.

Maybe it is more fun for you to embrace such beliefs, and not have to read my pushback?

Bland's book is superb - I often go back to remind myself of important points.  However if I want to push back against points on the forum including many HPCers who have belief structures (which power the market) that are very much doubting of HPC (owners not looking to sell/downsize for they believe a wipeout for savers ahead and that innocent mortgage debtors to be saved if going into simple negative equity) -  against some impressive evidence there has been a political and financial turn, I have that right.

Belief is so often the death of reasoning

 

39 minutes ago, Kiwi Toast said:

I asked Venger what the implications are and this was his reply:

If thewig admitted he was in favour of debt-forgiveness (he explicitly rejected this, so I'm not really sure there is much basis for disagreement. He did say "programming", but I think this may have been a careless comment, not to be taken literally) it wouldn't change anything.

It's a theme - and one that has been picked up by others.   A subset of HPCers claiming they can see truth of life, and believe anyone else taking other choices (new car / house) not making an informed decision, but being taken advantage of - and blame it on programming/propaganda/media (whatever the price).   I struggle in many areas and seek advice and guidance where I do, but we all have to make market choices (cars/houses), and we are responsible for them; including BTLers.

On 1/7/2017 at 0:38 AM, Pablosammy said:

They're not idiots, they're not uninformed, they just made a different choice. The self-righteousness on here can be suffocating at times.

 

5 hours ago, Bland Unsight said:

I agree with Venger that there is a strand of thinking amongst some posters that people are somehow not making active decisions when they buy houses and this notion of programming is one way in which this strand of thinking is expressed.

I think that the analysis is superficially attractive because it casts the analyst as the individual who can see what others cannot, or perhaps we are envisaging that we are immune to the programming for some reason?

Choice.  And belief maters.  It is leading to 'easy fantasy' beliefs imo about no HPC risks ahead.   If we can have many posters just tip up claiming "No HPC VI VI VI won't let it happen" - I can push back.  Sure the mechanics (IHT and everything else of critical interest - but this thread not about that, and brought out a whole load of HPC doubters and those projecting savers to be carry any losses in HPC, etc).

I am encouraged about all the complacency and doubting for HPC - those pointing to 'innocents' and 'programmed house buyers at ever higher peaks with no agency in their own choices' whilst claiming they expect savers to be wiped out, and helping their own into buying at these prices.  All fun and interesting to me.  Of course not going to influence the market, but many things connected to everything else.  

Look at the shock of the BTLers on BTL forums, with big surge of them focusing in on HPC - calling us numbskull anarchists and more... that we should be grateful to them for providing us with homes - (after laughing at us last few years) to get our views of what is ahead.   It is obvious many more BTLers are now take their bearings from looking in on HPC.   And shake at some of the more technical aspects.   Yet so many HPC doubters.  Up to them but bring something with it 'House price won't be allowed to fall' is a bit boring.

 

Idlewild, on 31 Mar 2016 - 6:30 PM, said:snapback.png

One thing worth bearing in mind is that if other people do not find your reasons as compelling as you yourself find them, then they may end up interpreting them as excuses, regardless of your perspective on yourself.

 

There are deep questions here about agency and responsibility. It seems to me that the saying that eternal vigilance is the price of liberty has relevance here. We can imagine ourselves first and foremost as sheeple, prey to advertising and salesmen who have the ability to fit us up with a reality of their choosing or we can imagine ourselves as a free people actively engaged in constructing reality.

 

Edited by Venger
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23 minutes ago, Kiwi Toast said:

Venger is simply arguing, by his own admission, because his particular interpretation of thewig's post was offensive to him. My point was simply to gently ask if there was anything more to the argument and if not to encourage the contributors (clearly we are all quite passionate about HPC) to focus on substantive issues.

I say this without rancour, it is very difficult to direct threads and it is very, very difficult for a third poster to influence the path of a to and fro between two other posters. I recognise that when these tangential disagreements kick-off they can be disruptive from the point of view whether or not the resulting thread develops into sustained line of discussion which is easy to read, but they are just part of the way of things on the forum.

Long and short of it, if Venger wants to have at it with thewig then given that we are all consenting adults with access to our ignore settings then I think it's best if Venger and thewig have at it. I am a Venger fan, and I don't think I'm the only one. There are lots of arguments and beliefs posted that I vehemently disagree with and I usually pass over these posts, regardless of how irritating I find them, without making any comment. I realise that with a similar generosity of spirit there are lots of other posters who do the same thing for me on the same basis.

When I read a post where Venger takes takes on one of the arguments that I think are nonsense and starts dismantling it, I bloody love it. I realise that the person on the receiving end may be having less fun, and that is an insight born out of experience, but I lived to tell the tale, and so will they.

When someone like Grumpysod jumps in and starts setting the world to rights about the supposed evils of Venger I sometimes cannot resist the temptation to visit upon them the same thoughtful assessment of character that they so generously extend to others. Grumpysod sees himself as the fair-minded good guy, I see him differently. Again, he has access to ignore setting and the ability to scroll past a post without reading it.

I just don't think you can take the people out of the forum. It's unruly, perhaps regrettably so, but it is what it is. Everyone should do their best to be civil and avoid turning threads into a slanging matches, but it's going to happen from time to time anyway. (And it's also brilliant fun.)

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7 minutes ago, Kiwi Toast said:

Some beliefs have implications, but I don't think the beliefs we have been talking about do. But if they do, I don't know why you don't explain the causal mechanism by which thewig beliefs affect the housing market.

 

 

3 minutes ago, Kiwi Toast said:

Welcome back!

Mr Toast, you are now actively dragging the post off the topic you profess to be trying to keep it on by prompting Venger to return to the topic that you thought should be dropped, and then you are doubling-down on that with a completely pointless 'gotcha' troll post. I assume you're lively to the dangers of being "so sharp you'll cut yourself". The Witchfinder General's fickle finger of suspicion is now upon you. Be afraid. Be very afraid.

 

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On ‎04‎/‎01‎/‎2017 at 7:40 PM, Kiwi Toast said:

Most mortgage lenders give you documents with examples like the following:

"You will pay £500 per month for 5 years at the fixed rate of 2% followed by payments of £600 per month at our current SVR of 4%. Note that this might change in five years time.

If interest rates increase by 10%, your monthly payment will increase to £1,500."

They also make you sit in a room for about two hours with an advisor who talks you through this.

Maybe this wasn't the case in the early 2000s, but by the time HTB was introduced I think all mortgage applicants would be made aware of this.

The above is proof that there are no innocents buying in the last few years (who have mortgages anyway).

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Just now, Bland Unsight said:

Mr Toast, you are now actively dragging the post off the topic you profess to be trying to keep it on by prompting Venger to return to the topic that you thought should be dropped, and then you are doubling-down on that with a completely pointless 'gotcha' troll post.

How ironic! Venger comes back after staying he'd stay away and you say I'm dragging us off topic after telling me it's very hard to so 8 minutes ago.

To go back to the contentious issue of whether people are programmed, or responsible or whatever, how do we define these terms precisely? If we could, we might be able to settle it.

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1 minute ago, Kiwi Toast said:

How ironic! Venger comes back after staying he'd stay away and you say I'm dragging us off topic after telling me it's very hard to so 8 minutes ago.

To go back to the contentious issue of whether people are programmed, or responsible or whatever, how do we define these terms precisely? If we could, we might be able to settle it.

I didn't say it was hard to drag people off-topic, I said that it was hard to direct a thread. I refuse to believe that you can't see the difference as you're clearly not an idiot.

If you want to have the conversation about programming and responsibility that you allude to then start a thread and see who comes out to play. I have no sense of whether or not you genuinely want to have that conversation, let alone why you want to have it. For now there are beers to be drunk and books to be read, so if you do start it don't hold your breath on me joining in though I did find this interesting.

In the meantime I look forward to seeing you get this thread back to the "potential for political persuasion" that "really matters".

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2 hours ago, Venger said:

Did you even look/read those charts Bland posted up?

Millions of renters-savers ("these people") are doing something, including those on very good incomes - they are refusing to buy, or unable to buy (MMR) against massively inflated house prices in many areas.

We now have a series of great measures feeding through including Section24, SDLT surcharge, to get really excited about.

Although some have different views to house prices - seeing them as affordable - not in the wider areas I track.

 

 

2 hours ago, Venger said:
On 12/4/2016 at 4:22 PM, long time lurking said:

I post on selected threads but avoid the i`m a renter prisoner type ones it`s just  to tedious these days ....if you are working and funding the rent out of ones wages one can afford to buy that house in most parts of the country  ,,,it`s a choice no ones forcing most of these people to rent 

 

^^^^^^^^ if you can`t afford it yep you are in a bad position i rent for the same reason a you though, through choice i`m short on houses the same as you we have been wrong for a long time but i don`t lose sleep over it and i certianly don`t blame those that bought before years ago they just wanted a home and went long on houses (BTL is a different matter) they up to this point in time have been right , ,and yes renter prisoner is tedious if that person can afford to by but chooses not to...erm its by choice 

Yes i seen the charts they are not good ..so you saying all those that bought in the 60s 70s 80s did so and paid ever increasing price just to price out the next cohort ? it had nothing to do with the banks ? 

Anger is no good for the soul or health ...just get on with your life

 

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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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