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Mikhail Liebenstein

FTSE 100 could hit 9000 this year - up 20%

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https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ftse-100-could-touch-9-094600601.html

OK, a lot of this is Zimbabwe style as the pound may still fall, but equally I think Trump deregulating banking will be a factor.

If this happens I'll certainly be rubbing my hands with glee as money will start to flow out of BTL and into the stockmarket. A rise of 20% should put my portfolio to well over £500k with 13 years before I can touch it and over 20 years before my due retirement date.

 

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Drummer said:

Effect on house prices? Not necessarily correlated?

Well, I guess the banks could create even more phoney cash and drive up both markets.  But there does seem to be a pivot between the two, when the stockmarket is where the action is, less will go into property by default, especially if interest rates rise.

Anyway, I'm going to start cheerleading for stocks - at least it might lower house prices a bit. 

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FTSE 9000? Not if Next's results are a bellwhether of future earnings.

http://news.sky.com/story/next-warns-2017-profits-could-fall-up-to-14-as-costs-grow-10717474

Quote

Next has warned its shoppers they face price rises of up to 5% in the year ahead, with a series of cost pressures potentially knocking annual profits by as much as 14%.

The retailer confirmed a story by Sky News hours earlier by admitting further "challenging" times were ahead while updating the City on its Christmas trading performance, which missed forecasts.

Its share price fell as much as 14% in early trading on the FTSE 100 - following on from a 4.3% loss in the previous session - while other retail stocks also came under pressure.

 

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26 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

FTSE 9000? Not if Next's results are a bellwhether of future earnings.

http://news.sky.com/story/next-warns-2017-profits-could-fall-up-to-14-as-costs-grow-10717474

 

Since when was the FTSE anything to do with performance.

 

It's inflated using free QE cash.


When that stops...SELL

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I'm still sitting in cash and gilts in my pension after I sold all my equities last year.

I'm unconvinced in returning at the moment. I'm at least waiting to see what Trump does in regards to trade which could cause all sorts of volatility.

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It does sound like a good time to get out of equities.

However, the ftse-100 is entirely currency drive and as Brixit is increasingly looking like an economic disaster, maybe dollar parity and 9000 are a reasonable prospect.

 

Hmm, just read the article. The author thinks (or rather says) that soft Brexit will increase ftse.  That requires the conceit that the ftse is rising becuse of reasons other that the collapse of the £. ******. 

 

 

Edited by Peter Hun

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I expect the kind of shock required to bring about a meaningful hpc may also sink the FTSE...and more severely...I expect we will need recession, unemployment and forced sellers to get the correction we want.  Not really the conditions for buoyant FTSE.

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The article sounds like a begging letter from a remoaner.

We cant keep letting in 300,000 people and only build 100,000 house.

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35 minutes ago, Kiwi Toast said:

We may be a nation of shopkeepers, but the FTSE 100 is not an index of retailers.

Indeed, and we are not just correcting linearly for falls in the Pound. Foreign sales by U.K. Listed firms will be flattered too.

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13 hours ago, Kiwi Toast said:

We may be a nation of shopkeepers, but the FTSE 100 is not an index of retailers.

Valid point. I was thinking more generally about the impact of imported inflation on consumer confidence and business optimism.

Edited by zugzwang

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The last time the FTSE was pushing 7,000, and price to earnings were 16 in March 2015, this guy prophetically wrote this.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/11463661/The-FTSE-100-will-fall-20pc-then-Ill-buy.html

 

In the lala land of Equities that now stand at a p/e of 33, yep I can now believe that it is a screaming buy. I wouldn't be surprised if this guy and his dog aren't screaming buy in fact. Because fundamentals matter not one jot it appears.

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