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walktothewater

Housing Wealth Growth 'astonishing'

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unfortunately 8% is probably not far off the mark, but for reasons more to do with fears over ECB rates (lock in now or face higher rates) and the SSIAs saving scheme expiring

http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0124/houses.html

Remember average prices in Ireland have doubled twice since 1997--- roughly €75k to €150k to €300k...

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Ireland is almost alone in the world now with HPI. OZ has already turned negative, the US market has ground to a halt and is crumbling on the coasts, Germany has a panic sell going on, the UK began its HPC in 2005 with double digit growth crashing down to 3% YOY (-1.25% if Hometrack are right). Ireland is next.

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Research prepared by economist Austin Hughes showed that Irish housing wealth - the market value of houses minus housing-related debt - has risen by 350% since 1996 to €375 billion. This is four times bigger than household income, a far bigger figure than in other countries. The figure for the US is 1.2 times income.

The bank believes this 'astonishing' build-up in wealth in the past 10 years will support the market in the future.

The reverse logic here is incredible.

For most economists, the fact that house prices in Ireland are many more times household income than elsewhere, is a cause for alarm. For Austin however, it is "wealth" that "will support the market".

But I don't think he is stupid enough to believe that.

Austin knows very well what will support the market - Credit Growth. His Bank (the IIB) needs people to borrow money and to do that they must feel confident about the market. Hence, the cr*p he spouts.

EDIT: Idea for headline in tomorrow's newspaper: IIB Bank: Good time to borrow money shock!

Edited by Flash

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EDIT: Idea for headline in tomorrow's newspaper: IIB Bank: Good time to borrow money shock!

Other recent ‘headlines’ in the Irish Media;

EAT MORE SAUSAGES, THEY PROLONG LIFE AND

ARE LOVLEY SO THEY ARE

Says spokesman for the Irish Federation of Pork Butchers

WHISKEY A BOTTLE A DAY HELPS KIDS REST AND PLAY

New research from the Irish Whisky Distillers Organisation shows.

VIETNAMESE CHICKEN FARMS THIS YEARS HOLIDAY HOTSPOT

Our travel editor agrees with a recent report from the Irish Vietnamese Chicken Farm Tour Operators Confederation. (please note that next weeks holiday section will be held over due to the sudden and untimely death from a mysterious illness of our travel editor following her recent trip to the Far East)

:D

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Other recent ‘headlines’ in the Irish Media;

EAT MORE SAUSAGES, THEY PROLONG LIFE AND

ARE LOVLEY SO THEY ARE

Says spokesman for the Irish Federation of Pork Butchers

WHISKEY A BOTTLE A DAY HELPS KIDS REST AND PLAY

New research from the Irish Whisky Distillers Organisation shows.

VIETNAMESE CHICKEN FARMS THIS YEARS HOLIDAY HOTSPOT

Our travel editor agrees with a recent report from the Irish Vietnamese Chicken Farm Tour Operators Confederation. (please note that next weeks holiday section will be held over due to the sudden and untimely death from a mysterious illness of our travel editor following her recent trip to the Far East)

:D

That puts it in perspective. Banks must laugh until it hurts when they think about their position:

they have a product which makes people so greedy that they are prepared to suspend disbelief. No other industry can really get away with this.

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Ireland is almost alone in the world now with HPI. OZ has already turned negative, the US market has ground to a halt and is crumbling on the coasts, Germany has a panic sell going on, the UK began its HPC in 2005 with double digit growth crashing down to 3% YOY (-1.25% if Hometrack are right). Ireland is next.

Where is the panic selling in Germany, i think you'll find it property funds that are under pressure and they are not related to a single country. Sometimes you guys just see what you want. The Housing market in Germany is the same as it has been for teh last 6 year flat and stable. There still remains a more negative outlook on commercial property but significantly less negative than 12 months ago..... :rolleyes:

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Ireland is almost alone in the world now with HPI. OZ has already turned negative, the US market has ground to a halt and is crumbling on the coasts, Germany has a panic sell going on, the UK began its HPC in 2005 with double digit growth crashing down to 3% YOY (-1.25% if Hometrack are right). Ireland is next.

That's an interesting point that goes against my view that price growth wil be strong in Ireland again this year. The declines in Oz will become undeniable and will enter common knowledge, as will the stagnation story in UK and perhaps falls in London, although its easier to dismiss the US cos its such a diverse market. Question is will the irish meeja latch on this any of it?

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That's an interesting point that goes against my view that price growth wil be strong in Ireland again this year. The declines in Oz will become undeniable and will enter common knowledge, as will the stagnation story in UK and perhaps falls in London, although its easier to dismiss the US cos its such a diverse market. Question is will the irish meeja latch on this any of it?

Yes they will. But it will be dismissed as no problem for Ireland. Just like all the other warnings from independent economists and think-tanks have been.

"Yeah, Yeah...Crying Wolf....They don't understand OUR market..." etc. etc.

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  • 333 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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