Global solar panel glut

[Peter Hun]

3 hours ago, ccc said:

This thread isn't actually about the auto industry.

So batteries. What are the constraints on them apart from what we already know about storage and depletion etc ?

Does the world have enough of whatever they are made of to replace every vehicle with a big pile of batteries instead ? I have no idea.

A large part the world's Lithium is in Bolivia 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salar_de_Uyuni

Extremely costly to extract due to its location

[Funn3r]

4 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

A large part the world's Lithium is in Bolivia 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salar_de_Uyuni

Extremely costly to extract due to its location

I forgot, the aforementioned German Guy told me lots of lithium in Afghanistan as well. 

[Sour Mash]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Although battery storage costs are declining there is some way to go before they become cost effective. 

Currently a 14kw Tesla storage system costs about £6k installed. Given that off peak electricity is only about 6p cheaper per kwh the potential saving if fully used would only be 84p per day. Or roughly a 20yr ROI, at current costs the numbers look a little better for a combined solar/battery setup but probably still in the 17-20yr range.

 

 

 

    

Is that taking into account that the battery bank's storage capacity will diminish over time and that it will almost certainly need replacing more than once in a 20 year period?

 

Personally, I'd be inclined to pay a wodge upfront for the knowledge that I'd be self-sufficient in energy (especially useful when it comes to electric vehicles) and surety of knowing how much it will cost me over a fixed period of time but then there's always the chance that the government would tax home electrical generation.

 

[Pablosammy]

I wonder if all the cost analysis of solar and wind includes the vast investment required in batteries that will be required to maintain a stable national grid? The volatility of wind in particular means grid frequency response is becoming a much more crucial factor - we'll need generation that can be online in seconds, not minutes, or the grid will become very unstable indeed. Any significant deviation from 50Hz could see the grid collapse as synchronous generators trip on automatic protection.

Who is going to regulate grid conditions as renewables take over? It's not going to be cheap and easy to provide the solution. The layman only sees the price per MWh of renewable energy, and rarely considers the more complex issues when denouncing conventional generation.

[ChumpusRex]

6 hours ago, ccc said:

Your Spain example is just typical of the nonsense that goes on today. 

There is some logic into what Spain tried to achieve. After all, the distribution grid is expensive infrastructure which requires regular on-going maintenance, with large fixed costs; the cable from the substation to your home doesn't disappear when you install solar panels, even if your net consumption is zero - the cable will simply be importing or exporting from time to time.

In the UK, the costs are typically around £50-100 per domestic property per year. This is typically charged to customers as a mixture of a flat fee, and a mark-up on the per unit charge. 

However, the Spanish charges went way beyond this, and you would have to pay and not only would you have to pay a 2nd set of fixed charges for the solar panels, but you would also have to pay a per-unit fee on every unit that was generated and consumed locally. Complete lunacy by any conceivable standards. The Spanish government have now agreed to repeal the tax, and it should be coming off the books in the next few months. 

If microgeneration becomes more widespread, then we may start to see pricing start to shift more towards a flat-fee system, than a consumption based system. Historically, however, a flat fee system for energy access, has been considered socially  unacceptable, as low users, often those on low incomes end up paying disproportionately. 

[ChumpusRex]

1 hour ago, Pablosammy said:

I wonder if all the cost analysis of solar and wind includes the vast investment required in batteries that will be required to maintain a stable national grid? The volatility of wind in particular means grid frequency response is becoming a much more crucial factor - we'll need generation that can be online in seconds, not minutes, or the grid will become very unstable indeed. Any significant deviation from 50Hz could see the grid collapse as synchronous generators trip on automatic protection.

Who is going to regulate grid conditions as renewables take over? It's not going to be cheap and easy to provide the solution. The layman only sees the price per MWh of renewable energy, and rarely considers the more complex issues when denouncing conventional generation.

At present, it's all being absorbed into the usual balancing system of the grid. In the UK, wind farms are widely geographically dispersed, and the national transmission grid is managed on a near homogeneous basis (i.e. there are relatively few transmission constraints between regions) so there is little minute-to-minute variability. However, NG have been significantly increasing the amount of balancing services which they are procuring, in the forms of enhanced frequency response (intended for battery type systems), or short term operating reserve (large plants guaranteeing part of the their capacity to be called on by NG, or low-capital cost generators such as diesel or natural gas reciprocating engine generators).

However, you are question the issue of cost. The preferred quoted cost figure is the "levelised cost of energy" - this includes capital cost, interest, O&M, load factor and, where appropriate, fuel and waste related costs. What it does not include is the redundancy/diversity required in the grid, nor the cost of balancing services.

The cost and carbon intensity of various storage or backup generation options varies considerably. E.g. new high efficiency (combined cycle) gas turbines operating with a load factor of 60%, representing a moderate intermittent renewable penetration, would have a levelised cost of approx £110/MWh. Such plants would not be viable at high renewable penetration necessitating a load factor of 30%, and lower efficiency turbines may be required, but even so, the capital cost dominates, and estimates put the cost ITRO of £150/MWh. Storage technologies vary widely depending on the capital costs and cycle efficiency of the chosen technology.

[Kurt Barlow]

5 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

A large part the world's Lithium is in Bolivia 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salar_de_Uyuni

Extremely costly to extract due to its location

Lithium is quite common and there are alternatives.

Sodium Ion Batteries

http://www.faradion.co.uk/

[Kurt Barlow]

6 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Although battery storage costs are declining there is some way to go before they become cost effective. 

Currently a 14kw Tesla storage system costs about £6k installed. Given that off peak electricity is only about 6p cheaper per kwh the potential saving if fully used would only be 84p per day. Or roughly a 20yr ROI, at current costs the numbers look a little better for a combined solar/battery setup but probably still in the 17-20yr range.

 

 

 

    

Lithium Ion Batteries are a complete waste for stationary situations where space isn't limited. I saw a lead acid system in Oz (large domestic house) which could store 180kwh for not much more than you would pay for a 14kwh Tesla system.

[BalancedBear]

18 minutes ago, Kurt Barlow said:

Lithium Ion Batteries are a complete waste for stationary situations where space isn't limited. I saw a lead acid system in Oz (large domestic house) which could store 180kwh for not much more than you would pay for a 14kwh Tesla system.

I agree. The main reason the Lithium Ion systems are being pushed, is because the promoters behind them are producing electric cars. These storage devices allow them to sell batteries which are past their prime and have been recovered from replaced electric car batteries and give them a second lease of life where their performance is not quite so critical.

[mattyboy1973]

8 minutes ago, BalancedBear said:

I agree. The main reason the Lithium Ion systems are being pushed, is because the promoters behind them are producing electric cars. These storage devices allow them to sell batteries which are past their prime and have been recovered from replaced electric car batteries and give them a second lease of life where their performance is not quite so critical.

Well they are less than a third the weight of lead acid, which is probably the biggest factor. Was looking at replacing some batteries on my boat a few years ago, and would have saved about 40kg - you can probably times that by 10 for a full set of car batteries.

They do seem to be making good progress on sodium ion batteries which would be good, as there is an essentially limitless supply of sodium.

[ChewingGrass]

18 minutes ago, mattyboy1973 said:

They do seem to be making good progress on sodium ion batteries

Did a course on handling sodium metal, when I briefly worked in a laboratory  that worked on systems pumping liquid sodium metal on heat exchanger systems in the 1980s. Standard practical joke was to put some of the metal in the plug hole of the sink that was used to wash up, the rest of what happens is basic but spectacular chemistry!

Sodium is way up the scale of nastiness on lithium. Sodium burns are not nice.

[Confusion of VIs]

6 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

Is that taking into account that the battery bank's storage capacity will diminish over time and that it will almost certainly need replacing more than once in a 20 year period?

 

Personally, I'd be inclined to pay a wodge upfront for the knowledge that I'd be self-sufficient in energy (especially useful when it comes to electric vehicles) and surety of knowing how much it will cost me over a fixed period of time but then there's always the chance that the government would tax home electrical generation.

 

No, it was just a rough calculation. It also ignored cost of capital and any price inflation as these factors will tend to cancel each other out over the long term.

I understand that battery degradation is proving to be much less of an issue than had been feared. Although as the technology is still very new, it will be years before this can be fully confirmed (and by then the technology will have moved on again).

I think both battery storage and solar generation have a very bright future in the UK but are probably 10 years away from being strongly cost effective for unsubsidised retrofit applications.   

     

[Inoperational Bumblebee]

1 hour ago, ChewingGrass said:

Did a course on handling sodium metal, when I briefly worked in a laboratory  that worked on systems pumping liquid sodium metal on heat exchanger systems in the 1980s. Standard practical joke was to put some of the metal in the plug hole of the sink that was used to wash up, the rest of what happens is basic but spectacular chemistry!

Sodium is way up the scale of nastiness on lithium. Sodium burns are not nice.

That was my immediate thought too, but a quick glance over the Wikipedia article suggests sodium metal is not used in the batteries. One design does use a sodium perchlorate electrolyte though which did rather set alarm bells ringing!

[Confusion of VIs]

8 minutes ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

That was my immediate thought too, but a quick glance over the Wikipedia article suggests sodium metal is not used in the batteries. One design does use a sodium perchlorate electrolyte though which did rather set alarm bells ringing!

Sodium Sulphur batteries were mooted for use in EVs probably 25 years ago. I remember thinking at the time that car with a battery using a fiercely corrosive electrolyte with an operating temperature of over 300C was not something I would fancy driving. 

[Kurt Barlow]

On 04/01/2017 at 7:39 AM, onlyme2 said:

Partly just looking at it in engineering terms as a solution and that my wife's car, can't remember any time less than reported 50mpg, will do 65-70mpg on a long careful run and has the best part of 200k on the clock!  It is a diesel mind, so I can see the benefit of locked down city driving and hybrids in there interim, they make the best(wish) of a compromise in terms of mpg, pollution and range extension.

 

Looking at the Honest John figures for real fuel consumption I'd be highly surprised at any ICE Vehicle getting >50mpg for short journeys in cold conditions. Most diesels struggle to beat 55mpg across all conditions and very few exceed the 60mpg mark.

http://www.honestjohn.co.uk/realmpg/volkswagen/golf-vii-2013

Out of interest what model of car is it?  VW - with VW trip computer by any chance? ;-p

[rollover]

US solar power employs more people than oil, coal and gas combined

Solar energy employed 374,000 people over the year 2015-2016, making up 43 per cent of the sector’s workforce, while the traditional fossil fuels combined employed 187,117, making up just 22 per cent of the workforce, according to the report. “Proportionally, solar employment accounts for the largest share of workers in the Electric Power Generation sector. This is largely due to the construction related to the significant build out of new solar generation capacity,” the report states. It adds that this gap is growing, with net generation from coal sources declining by 53 per cent between 2006 and September 2016, while electricity generation from natural gas increased by 33 per cent and solar by over 5,000 per cent in the same period. In the past year alone, solar industry employment has increased by 25 per cent, adding 73,000 new jobs to the economy, while wind energy employment saw an even larger  increase of 32 per cent. Data in the report shows the overall number of jobs in energy efficiency increased by 133,000 to a total of 2.2 million within that year. Independent

[Digsby]

Personally I think supercapacitors will have an important role to play, if not in place of batteries then as a buffer to handle short bursts of high loads and minimise battery cycling, both of which would extend battery life considerably.

Having lived off-grid for 4 years now, I've found that apart from photovoltaic efficiency and battery discharge rates, there are 2 other problems, the first being plate damage caused by cycles and the other, inverter efficiency.

Although inverters can be incredibly efficient a high loads, the efficiency curve falls off dramatically for low loads to the point where a 1.2kw inverter providing 12w of power is using far, far more power than it is providing and for most households, power requirements are low for most of the day.

My achilles heel is my fridge. In retrospect I should have gone for a 12v fridge but apart from the excessive price, the 240v one I opted for was 2 or 3 times more efficient. However I hadn't realised at the time how inefficient inverters are at meeting low demand and most of the time, the fridge is just monitoring temperature. I had hoped at one point to run the control circuit directly from the batteries but annoyingly it runs on AC all the way through. I tried running the control circuit off a small inverter hoping to get better efficiency but small inverters are even less efficient even if the demand is nearer to their maximum rating.

All of this can be worked around by appliance manufacturers but the demand needs to be there first.

Edited January 24, 2017 by Digsby

[Extreme_biker0]

2 hours ago, Digsby said:

Personally I think supercapacitors will have an important role to play, if not in place of batteries then as a buffer to handle short bursts of high loads and minimise battery cycling, both of which would extend battery life considerably.

At grid scale you're talking huge banks of batteries.  With battery banks at the grid size they can be connected in a way as to be able to absorb and output a lot of power, while individual batteries only taking a small part of the total.  This negates one of the main benefits of super capacitors, which is to be able to charge and discharge rapidly.  The main barrier to grid scale battery deployments is still capacity rather than power.

2 hours ago, Digsby said:

Having lived off-grid for 4 years now, I've found that apart from photovoltaic efficiency and battery discharge rates, there are 2 other problems, the first being plate damage caused by cycles and the other, inverter efficiency.

Although inverters can be incredibly efficient a high loads, the efficiency curve falls off dramatically for low loads to the point where a 1.2kw inverter providing 12w of power is using far, far more power than it is providing and for most households, power requirements are low for most of the day.

My achilles heel is my fridge. In retrospect I should have gone for a 12v fridge but apart from the excessive price, the 240v one I opted for was 2 or 3 times more efficient. However I hadn't realised at the time how inefficient inverters are at meeting low demand and most of the time, the fridge is just monitoring temperature. I had hoped at one point to run the control circuit directly from the batteries but annoyingly it runs on AC all the way through. I tried running the control circuit off a small inverter hoping to get better efficiency but small inverters are even less efficient even if the demand is nearer to their maximum rating.

All of this can be worked around by appliance manufacturers but the demand needs to be there first.

As someone very interested in going off grid - a very interesting read thanks for posting.  What inverter are you using?  The effiency curve on the one I was considering does not look too bad: http://files.sma.de/dl/17632/SI_OFF_ON_6H_8H-DEN1642-V21web.pdf am I misinterpreting this though?

Back on topic: I think any glut in solar panels will quickly be resolved as people take advantage of the lower prices.  This could even stimulate more demand as firms pop up all over installing them and touting for future business when the cheap panels run out.  Anyway the panel prices are falling all the time so it's only a matter of time before the manufacturers are back in the black if prices just stay the same.

[onlyme2]

On 07/01/2017 at 11:37 AM, Kurt Barlow said:

Looking at the Honest John figures for real fuel consumption I'd be highly surprised at any ICE Vehicle getting >50mpg for short journeys in cold conditions. Most diesels struggle to beat 55mpg across all conditions and very few exceed the 60mpg mark.

http://www.honestjohn.co.uk/realmpg/volkswagen/golf-vii-2013

Out of interest what model of car is it?  VW - with VW trip computer by any chance? ;-p

Short trip and cold, absolute worst conditions, then yes, if I reset the trip on a frosty morning and just drove a couple miles then the trip computer would register less than 50 just in that one instance. However over a week or so of the same with mix of 2/3 mile and 10/20 miles trips it will still deliver over 50mpg even in winter.

 It's a 1.4 DFD Yaris, HJ users reporting 61.9mpg overage, so based on +10% in summer, minus 10% efficiency say in winter (heater, lights, cold engine effects) this would indicate other drivers are seeing +50mpg in winter too. 

http://www.honestjohn.co.uk/realmpg/toyota/yaris-and-yaris-hybrid-2011

1.4 D-4D

72.4–80.7 mpg

61.9 mpg

81%

 

 

[Peter Hun]

Re:12/240v

One solution I read about was converting a highly insulated chest freezer into a fridge by replacing the theremostat (mechanical ). This would only activate every hour or so and at high load. Or a mechanical timer the switches on the fridge for 5min per hour.

Edited January 25, 2017 by Peter Hun

[Digsby]

On 24/01/2017 at 11:32 AM, Extreme_biker0 said:

As someone very interested in going off grid - a very interesting read thanks for posting.  What inverter are you using?  The effiency curve on the one I was considering does not look too bad: http://files.sma.de/dl/17632/SI_OFF_ON_6H_8H-DEN1642-V21web.pdf am I misinterpreting this though?

I expect you are misinterpreting it. The drop-off I'm talking about is on the left, and it's pretty steep, no?

So reading right to left, at full rated output, efficiency is about 92%, at 20% of rated output it is around the maximum 96-ish%, and less than that drops off a cliff face to around 85% at about 5% of rated output. The chart cuts off at that point but it's not the end of the story.

My inverter is a 1.2kw Victron. Imagine that mine had the same curve as yours. The load I'm talking about is 5w which is 0.04% of rated output. Imagine how tall that graph would have to be to plot that point, and how far down the efficiency scale it would fall. Would it even be above zero?

The Sunny Island is an exceptionally good Inverter though and likely (with Outback being a contender) the one I would/will go for if/when I buy a house and take it off-grid. But it's way over-specced, and pricey, for my current set-up (on a boat).

All inverters will have that cliff face though. 

[Saving For a Space Ship]

On 07/01/2017 at 11:37 AM, Kurt Barlow said:

Looking at the Honest John figures for real fuel consumption I'd be highly surprised at any ICE Vehicle getting >50mpg for short journeys in cold conditions. Most diesels struggle to beat 55mpg across all conditions and very few exceed the 60mpg mark.

http://www.honestjohn.co.uk/realmpg/volkswagen/golf-vii-2013

Out of interest what model of car is it?  VW - with VW trip computer by any chance? ;-p

 

21 hours ago, onlyme2 said:

Short trip and cold, absolute worst conditions, then yes, if I reset the trip on a frosty morning and just drove a couple miles then the trip computer would register less than 50 just in that one instance. However over a week or so of the same with mix of 2/3 mile and 10/20 miles trips it will still deliver over 50mpg even in winter.

 It's a 1.4 DFD Yaris, HJ users reporting 61.9mpg overage, so based on +10% in summer, minus 10% efficiency say in winter (heater, lights, cold engine effects) this would indicate other drivers are seeing +50mpg in winter too. 

http://www.honestjohn.co.uk/realmpg/toyota/yaris-and-yaris-hybrid-2011

1.4 D-4D

72.4–80.7 mpg

61.9 mpg

81%

 

 

Honest john mpg figures seem very generous.

I've always found http://www.fuelly.com/car/toyota/yaris a good site (remember to select "Uk" at top, not US )

Isn't a yaris a small car? Compared to Kurts' Auris Hybrid Estate , which is a medium size car imo 

[rahhhh]

On 1/24/2017 at 9:11 AM, Digsby said:

My achilles heel is my fridge. In retrospect I should have gone for a 12v fridge but apart from the excessive price, the 240v one I opted for was 2 or 3 times more efficient. However I hadn't realised at the time how inefficient inverters are at meeting low demand and most of the time, the fridge is just monitoring temperature. I had hoped at one point to run the control circuit directly from the batteries but annoyingly it runs on AC all the way through. I tried running the control circuit off a small inverter hoping to get better efficiency but small inverters are even less efficient even if the demand is nearer to their maximum rating.

All of this can be worked around by appliance manufacturers but the demand needs to be there first.

why not run the fridge on a timer?

[Digsby]

17 minutes ago, rahhhh said:

why not run the fridge on a timer?

Well even easier (and safer) than that, I could switch the inverter to "eco mode" where it switches on every couple of seconds, and if it detects no load, switches off again. The control circuit on the fridge is too little a load to keep the inverter on, so when it gets too warm, the compressor comes on in those couple of seconds and the inverter kicks in to power it.

The problem with that, as with your suggestion, is the fridge light. It's annoying opening a dark fridge, even more one that's light, then dark, then light, then dark again! I'm in all day by the way. Could have a timer where it's off at night, could rewire the light for 12v, I'm tired of buggering around with it. Only just mustered the patience to rewire it back to run off a single mains socket again!

I'm selling up soon, so it won't be my problem for long (not that it's huge, I still run 100% solar for 8 months of the year)

[onlyme2]

56 minutes ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

 

Honest john mpg figures seem very generous.

I've always found http://www.fuelly.com/car/toyota/yaris a good site (remember to select "Uk" at top, not US )

Isn't a yaris a small car? Compared to Kurts' Auris Hybrid Estate , which is a medium size car imo 

Yes, true it is a small car.

Fuelly, L4 Disels (UK) showing between 53 and 70 odd, with most high 50's to 60's , so those figures tally with HJ too.

http://www.fuelly.com/car/toyota/yaris?engineconfig_id=501&bodytype_id=3&submodel_id=