rollover Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Quote The number of mortgages approved by British banks fell slightly last month after hitting a five-month high in October, while consumer credit continued to expand strongly, industry figures showed on Wednesday. The British Bankers' Association (BBA) said banks approved 40,659 mortgages in November, falling from 40,835 in October and down 9 percent compared with a year ago. Credit card lending increased by 231 million pounds, the biggest increase in four months. Reuters Especially the London housing market is starting to cool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toast Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 22 minutes ago, rollover said: ... fell slightly last month after hitting a five-month high in October ... It's somewhat encouraging that they're falling, but the five month high in October is less so. Reuters always strikes me as the ADHD kid of news sources: it makes a big song and dance about anything that happens today, but there is essentially no history or context for any of their stories (the one year comparison is a remarkable amount of analysis by their standards). Of course, that's their business model, and it's up to us to fill in the interpretation. I remember people saying that 60k mortgages per month tends to be the balance point for zero price movements over the next quarter or so. Anyone have an idea if that is supported by good data, and whether that 60k figure changes through the year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi5lo5 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Mortgage approvals House purchase approval numbers are 9% lower than in November 2015 and in the first eleven months of 2016 were 4% lower than in the same period of 2015. Remortgaging approvals were 14% higher than those in November 2015 and in the first eleven months of 2016 were 13% higher than in the equivalent period of 2015. Other advances were 10% higher than a year ago. Surprise!!! remortgaging 14% up YoY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_duke_of_hazzard Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 hour ago, rollover said: Especially the London housing market is starting to cool. How do you know? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Is this different than any other November? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digsby Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 I reckon the new purchase loans will continue to decline from here, probably with a fair jump down in Jan from HTB2 ending, and remortgaging will continue to increase with the increasing threat of IR rises. That figure of 60k approvals being the threshold of price increases/declines is clearly nonsense. It is a factor of demand, and supply, and price, and risk. All of which change month to month, year to year. It may have held true in the past, but the market is not in a usual state. I'm pencilling February in as the HPC due date now. We'll know for sure if it's on or not before the end of that month. I think it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Didn't someone suggest consistently below 40K transactions per month was the point of no return? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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