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PropertyMania

When do we reach peak reurbanisation?

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Here's a chart of London's population over the last 85 years, but it more or less represents any major western city. The basic trend was millenia of urbanization up until the 1930s when decline, improvements in transport and vast housebuilding encouraged millions to move out to the suburbs. This continues to around the mid 1980s when cities started to improve, were relatively cheap, became deindustrialised (so less pollution etc) and crime started to fall.  But now that major cities are crazy expensive, at what point does this reurbanisation max out? We can't have the entire Western population living in cities so it has to end at some point. I also think the population projections for London are wildly optimistic, not least because 'telecommuting' is finally happening and driverless cars will make commuting so much cheaper, less stressful etc

Interested in your thoughts..

PS Love this site - some great people on here

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50 minutes ago, hotairmail said:

There are 2 trends actually. We still have ongoing 'flight' from London. Over a million over the last 20 years or so. Still running at about 50,000 Londoners per year net leave to the rest of the UK. See ONS.

Then we have immigration. That accounts for the increase in London's population. Indeed, figures just released show that 73% of new borns in London had a parent born overseas. 

So, the figures you have presented do not reflect the 'urbanisation' you describe in the sense of people leaving the country and moving to the city. Not in this country at least. The increase in the various cities is merely down to immigration.

True to a point, but London still growing faster than the UK population as a whole. i.e. there is still net migration from non-London UK to London

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2 hours ago, PropertyMania said:

True to a point, but London still growing faster than the UK population as a whole. i.e. there is still net migration from non-London UK to London

That doesn't appear to be the case. FT article using ONS stats.


http://blogs.ft.com/ftdata/2016/06/09/are-londoners-leaving-london-internal-migration-uk/

Quote

 

However, if you take international migrants out of the picture and look only at domestic movements, London’s population is in decline. Over the past five years the city lost a net 305,000 inhabitants to other parts of the UK. In the year to June 2014, the latest for which data is available, 68,500 more people left the capital than moved in – an 83 per cent increase on 2009, when a net 37,500 abandoned the city.

 


 

I've seen figures that break down the demographics and iirc it's the 30 something families that are leaving.

 

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1 hour ago, Parkwell said:

That doesn't appear to be the case. FT article using ONS stats.


http://blogs.ft.com/ftdata/2016/06/09/are-londoners-leaving-london-internal-migration-uk/

I've seen figures that break down the demographics and iirc it's the 30 something families that are leaving.

 

I stand corrected, thanks for info. Peak (re)urbanisation might then be better defined as the point at which the % of the UK population living in London stops growing.  As article mentions,  London today is 13% of uk population and no where near peak of 18% in 1939

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Didn't realise how much London is leveraged to immigration levels. With Brexit vote the government will have to get a grip on both  EU and non-EU migration.

Will add that to the 15+ reasons why London is heading for a big old crash.

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