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jiltedjen

2017 predictions

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Okay at a guess:

HPI is around +0.1% a month all the way until around June time
BTL media ramping sturs up some panic portfolio dumping.
Prices start to fall from July onwards at maybe a rate of 1% a month.

Gov rolls out an enhanced HTB ISA, or even improves the bonus for those who already have one.

Will be a very hot summer, full of strikes but no riots. Article 50 wont really cause much fuss, and the FTSE100 will decide to try and play catch up with american markets. American markets have a blow off top. And trade slightly down/sideways for most of 2017 until some falls creep in at the end.

Tensions in the china sea will ratchet up a bit, will be at least one high profile news event, i dont think china will be too happy with local countries (like japan) improving armies. 

Bitcoin will reach 1500USD before falling to around 1200USD for a few months then cool to around 1000 USD for the end of the year.

Gold will fall gradually all year.

Inflation will be high at the start of the year (all my suppliers have upped prices around 5-10% for january)

Pay rises will remain weak. 

Edited by jiltedjen
cant sphell

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4 minutes ago, voldemort said:

It will be less eventful than 2016. :)

i really hope it is less eventfull, after-all as the Chinese curse goes:

'may you live in interesting times'

A lot of bad has happened in the world this year. When i have a spare 24 hours i will watch the '2016 review in brief' on the news, they will have a lot to get through.

I hope all on here have a much more positive 2017. The media are now more or less on our side, the Gov's interesting are starting to align with ours.
I feel 2017 will be a positive year in regards for HPC. I just hope the rest of the world can get better, and i hope everyone under 55 has a lovely year.
 

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No idea...sadly this is the case for the EU, Russia and China with President Trump at the helm.

 

I say "sadly" but perhaps the status quo needs a jolt...or an earth quake.

 

Wings of a butterfly etc.

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Outer London house prices in free fall by March which will spread to the shires by the end of the year. Another country will leave the EU (The Netherlands and Poland seem like good bets). The Euro will fall massively against the pound and the dollar (if it even still exists by the end of 2017). Trump will turn out to be not as good as his supporters hoped but not as bad as his opponents feared. US interest rates will rise by about one percent. Mark Carney and his goons will be vigilant.

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Any interest in doing a politicsbetting style spreadsheet that we can score at the end of the year?

I'll put mine here but I don't really have any clue anymore.

 

At 31st December 2017.

Interest rates: 1%

GDP Growth: 2.6%

London HPI: -4%

UK HPI: 1% (but trending down)

Bitcoin: $3500

Conservative Poll of Polls: 37%

Labour Poll of Polls: 34%

UKIP Poll of Polls: 12%

LD Poll of Polls: 9%

FTSE: 7700

FOXT: 79

GDP/USD: 1.5

GDP/EUR: 1.3

Spice Girls Reunion Tour: Cancelled.

 

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1 hour ago, giggler000 said:

If it went to that, it's because they let it but they won't let the yellow get anywhere near that - can't think why

Bitcoin is happening. I don't believe they can stop it or they would have already.

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28 minutes ago, doomed said:

Bitcoin is happening. I don't believe they can stop it or they would have already.

I think the strength in bitcoin currently is a repeat of a few years back when Chinese people were using it to get money out of China.

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To escape minor changes in taxation, houses will flee the country on rafts, searching for the legendary land of shangri large, well appointed semi detached property. 

To solve the housing crisis, the government will begin canning the under 30s.   Canned workers will be stored in a specially constructed ditch, until required by an employer or meat processing factory.  Shares in Heinz increase 17%.  There are no protests.

In summer, we will see the first live implantation of a baby-boomer into the body of a 25-year old newly qualified accountant from Reading, enabling direct nutrient transfer from the host without the need for a messy buy-to-let mortgage.

Labour hold one leadership contest per month. These are won by: Hillary Benn, Will Straw, Will Benn,  Little Jimmy Benn, Mr Benn, Mr Bean, Leon Trotsky, Leon from the film Leon, Leon Straw, Leon Benn, the Straw Man from the wizard of Oz, and Little Mix.  

Donald Trump wins Masterchef 'the professionals' despite shitting in Gregg Wallace's terrine.

The banking sector collapses after the FTSE crashes.  The crash is later found to have been caused by an unlicensed drone. To fund bailouts, the government sells the royal family to the Chinese.  The new queen is a 29 year old tech entrepreneur called Wong Wei.

Russian hackers steal the password to Theresa May.  When the security breach is discovered, the PM is deleted.  

House prices up 410%

Ftse: 6969

Dow: Defcon 3

gbpusd: Blue

gbpeur: no

interest rates: cloudy

gold: always believe in your soul

 

Edited by BuyToLeech

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Same prices but not many transactions. 

London and other big cities (particularly those with lots of new 2-bed flats and student HMOs) start to fall when BTLs continue to struggle to remortgage.

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6 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

I just hope the rest of the world can get better, and i hope everyone under 55 has a lovely year.
 

Bless you thanks for your 9 month in my case best wishes 

My thought just for you is:

'Holding onto anger is like taking poison and expecting the other person to die '

Enjoy 2017 

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8 hours ago, Grumpysod said:

Anything could happen this year, general election/s, Brexit fighting, world markets, right wing extremists..

Best just to predict..

 

Messy 2017

I think Ronaldo will win it again in 2017.

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  • The UK's population will grow by 500,000
  • Brexit will be kicked into the long grass - stuck in some legal limbo
  • House prices will stall
  • UK base rate will be cut to 0.0%.
  • New migrant crisis - Turkey will open its borders and unleash millions of people into the EU
  • Strong speculation that Twitter will fold (no buyers, never makes a profit) through the year - 2018 it will be folded into Instagram in some way
  • Much talk about Facebook on the decline - we will come to realise that 2016 was Peak Facebook in years ahead
  • Google will suffer a huge technical failure
  • Gold will fall down to $800-$900 (investors have lost faith in PMs)
  • FTSE 7600 to 7700 at end of year
  • Oil at $65
  • pound at $1.13

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WW3!! 

Well ok maybe not as far as that. If Clinton had got into power and imposed no fly zones in Syria, I really do think tensions between US and  Russia would have been at the highest level since the cold war. I think Trump on the other hand will calm relations down somewhat.

I do think there will be more political play in the middle east over oil, and it will remain volatile. As said above Turkey releasing more waves of immigrants into Europe. We will start to see more of the effects of the past years refugee crisis with increased crime and terrorism on social media and 'fake news' with the usual blackout by MSM. This failed integration will add more weight to populist parties, and nations divided.

As far as the markets go, I don't think stocks are safe option and are overvalued. With an increase in interest rates by the US and everyone else following I think we'll see people start to default on their debt binges. This will cause volatility. Im remaining in cash, long term gilts and precious metals, and will buy more gold when it bottoms early next year.

On our shores, we'll start to finally see the BTL crowd waking up and smelling the coffee. Expect lots of newspaper articles, 'property pension in ruins' and 'housing benefit tenants made homeless' etc. This will all put the housing market at a standstill.

Estate agents will start to close as they cannot even rely on their extortionate letting fees now, and what with cheaper online options, the writing is finally on the wall. You will start to see a lot more Audi A1s in car trade auctions.

2018/2019 property crash.

More celebrities will die. Bruce Forsyth will be a 2017 casualty. 

https://deathlist.net/

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Hard Brexit as Theresa May finally shows some bottle and realises she will be out of a job otherwise.

UK property market comes to a standstill. Estate agents start closing shop.

Signs of public unrest. All it requires is leadership, as the anger is still there. 

2017 will be Magnificent for the UK in the long run, just like Brexit!

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