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No Crash In 2006 ?

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I receive regular information bulletins from an established Tax Planning Group in S'pore (UK based). I've just received this:

" According to a recent article from the BBC the housing market will slow in 2006 but will not crash". The source of this article is recent research from the Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR)which forecasts house prices will rise by 4.4% in 2006, compared with 5.1% in 2005.

Apparently a slowing UK economy in the latter part of 2006 will keep a lid on house price rises but the CEBR are not expecting a crash for the principal reason that housing demand still continues to exceed supply by a healthy margin .

You would imagine that a body like the CEBR would be independent and spin-free . Am I being naive here? Because it certainly flies in the face of what I see on Swansea EA'S web sites where I can say categorically that prices are dropping without doubt. Fact nothing anecdotal about it.

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" Apparently a slowing UK economy in the latter part of 2006 will keep a lid on house price rises but the CEBR are not expecting a crash

when is anyone really expecting a crash? The majority are never expecting it to happen when it does, the dot com crash for example.

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The last 4 house price crashes (since 1950) had nothing to do with just supply and demand--the population has been rising since 1950. It is a question of the economic cycle--when the item becomes overvalued it eventually drops in price. Simple isn't it?

Edited by Realistbear

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Guest Bart of Darkness

when is anyone really expecting a crash? The majority are never expecting it to happen when it does, the dot com crash for example.

Or who in the financial world would admit to the possibility of a crash even if they expected one (no one wants to be blamed for "spooking" the market).

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I receive regular information bulletins from an established Tax Planning Group in S'pore (UK based). I've just received this:

" According to a recent article from the BBC the housing market will slow in 2006 but will not crash". The source of this article is recent research from the Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR)which forecasts house prices will rise by 4.4% in 2006, compared with 5.1% in 2005.

Apparently a slowing UK economy in the latter part of 2006 will keep a lid on house price rises but the CEBR are not expecting a crash for the principal reason that housing demand still continues to exceed supply by a healthy margin .

You would imagine that a body like the CEBR would be independent and spin-free . Am I being naive here? Because it certainly flies in the face of what I see on Swansea EA'S web sites where I can say categorically that prices are dropping without doubt. Fact nothing anecdotal about it.

Ahem....I think with a little real research, you'll find that citing EA's website is PURE ANECDOTAL and as such it goes to show once again, that there are always overpriced properties for sale and always will be.

It also shows once again, that bears will cite anything as evidence of their own beliefs.

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Ahem....I think with a little real research, you'll find that citing EA's website is PURE ANECDOTAL and as such it goes to show once again, that there are always overpriced properties for sale and always will be.

It also shows once again, that bears will cite anything as evidence of their own beliefs.

In the world of speculation perception is reality. Anecdotal evidence, if true, is a sound thing to base perception upon.

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You would imagine that a body like the CEBR would be independent and spin-free.

You would however the author of the report (Mark Pagnell) is a consistent bull in the property market. Furthermore, on a separate thread, I have posted a link to the supposed report.

In reality the report is a one page press release with no supporting evidence, which IMO adds nothing to the debate. In particular they make a number of vague claims re demand and supply factors which appear dubious at best.

If anybody has access to more detailed CEBR work I would love to read it, the existing report isn't worth the paper its written on. :angry:

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I receive regular information bulletins from an established Tax Planning Group in S'pore (UK based). I've just received this:

" According to a recent article from the BBC the housing market will slow in 2006 but will not crash". The source of this article is recent research from the Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR)which forecasts house prices will rise by 4.4% in 2006, compared with 5.1% in 2005.

Apparently a slowing UK economy in the latter part of 2006 will keep a lid on house price rises but the CEBR are not expecting a crash for the principal reason that housing demand still continues to exceed supply by a healthy margin .

You would imagine that a body like the CEBR would be independent and spin-free . Am I being naive here? Because it certainly flies in the face of what I see on Swansea EA'S web sites where I can say categorically that prices are dropping without doubt. Fact nothing anecdotal about it.

To see a crash we'd need a major economic downturn to light the fires. We need an external influence to impact the market overall. I don't think the housing market will implode on its own. it will need IR's to rise or inflation or major loss of overall consumer confidence. Any of these things could come from US ecomomy, Stock markets, oil prices etc. However its not going to fall over based on the current status quo. Despite what some here would wish for. If everything remained equal we'd have a flat martket with some price erosion , there will be no crash until something causes it.

Edited by abroad

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To see a crash we'd need a major economic downturn to light the fires. We need an external influence to impact the market overall. I don't think the housing market will implode on its own. it will need IR's to rise or inflation or major loss of overall consumer confidence. Any of these things could come from US ecomomy, Stock markets, oil prices etc. However its not going to fall over based on the current status quo. Despite what some here would wish for. If everything remained equal we'd have a flat martket with some price erosion , there will be no crash until something causes it.

Crashes are snowballs..

Trust me.. If I hear how terrible IR's are now at this level I will have an anger management issue.

People are failing, People were investing to flip and are now in negative equity..

£10,000 drops might not seem large in property terms..

but if you are eating £300 a month to subsidise rental income and struggle with that.. trust me.. £10,000 is a lot .. a lot a lot..

To loose..

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To see a crash we'd need a major economic downturn to light the fires. We need an external influence to impact the market overall. I don't think the housing market will implode on its own. it will need IR's to rise or inflation or major loss of overall consumer confidence.

For your post to be true that would mean that house prices are roughly where they should be. All of the available evidence suggests that is not the case.

There is no need for a trigger to bring prices down. The recent rises have been speculation on ever rising house prices, once people realise that the gamble has failed they will either sell at whatever price they can get or keep on chasing the market down.

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" Apparently a slowing UK economy in the latter part of 2006 will keep a lid on house price rises but the CEBR are not expecting a crash for the principal reason that housing demand still continues to exceed supply by a healthy margin

They're confusing "demand" and "aspiration" - a typical schoolboy error in O level Economics

aspiration = would like

demand = would like and have the funds necessary to actually purchase at a particular price

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For your post to be true that would mean that house prices are roughly where they should be. All of the available evidence suggests that is not the case.

There is no need for a trigger to bring prices down. The recent rises have been speculation on ever rising house prices, once people realise that the gamble has failed they will either sell at whatever price they can get or keep on chasing the market down.

Actually if you look at the evidence neutrally there is evidence of growth and shrinkage of the housing market right now, you can believe one side or the other but the reality is that everyone spouting forth has a degree of VI and views it from their hopes and fears.... :ph34r: I still stand by my view that things are at the moment in a steady decline to flat depending on area and house type. We need another influence to really warm things up....

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For your post to be true that would mean that house prices are roughly where they should be. All of the available evidence suggests that is not the case.

There is no need for a trigger to bring prices down. The recent rises have been speculation on ever rising house prices, once people realise that the gamble has failed they will either sell at whatever price they can get or keep on chasing the market down.

From the point of view of pure bubble theory I would agree.

But what we have is vested interests supported by Labour propping up the market: self cert/ interest only mortgages;massaged inflation figures; lax credit controls; cheap money; numerous EA and building industrty scams etc. In the face of this resistence from the establishment, and all things being equal, we could easily wake up in 3 years time to find prices are still flat lining. If this happens then adios HPC.

I agree with Abroad's view. Without some external stimulas we could be looking at stagnation and waiting for salaries to catch up with prices which could take years.

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Just read this from Eric Pebble:

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/2981/property-market.html

Says it all really.

Yea, that article does seem to round this up quite well but then again i do have a VI as i have a signed first edition of the 'curious incident ..' (im waiting for the book bubble :lol:)

Edited by theChuz

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but the reality is that everyone spouting forth has a degree of VI and views it from their hopes and fears.... :

Indeed

And especially so from STRs, and even more so from STRs who have invested their proceeds in the stockmarket. :unsure:

A point which may not be apparent to green FTBs who log onto the site fo the first time.

Beware the vested interests! Whomever they may be! :ph34r:

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And especially so from STRs, and even more so from STRs who have invested their proceeds in the stockmarket. :unsure:

And by all accounts have seen pretty good growth in the last couple of years as a result.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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