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wsn03

The Bubble Investors

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I've noticed that housing, and every other bubble, comes from idiots with too much money looking for somewhere to put it.

As soon as people start talking about the safe haven, and "experts" start advising people, the haven becomes a bubble.

I know someone in that very situation, who dived into a beach hut that I think he paid 20k for, some really sought after location blah blah. 20 grand for a shed with no utilities, incredible.

The one that leaves me dumfounded is run of the mill "classic" cars - Ford Escort RS2000s were going for up to 40k until mid this year. I had one, they weren't very good unless you were a rally driver in the 1970s.  I found some article in the Guardian written by another "expert" interviewing an "expert" who pointed out the "froth" (pretentious a55holes) had gone out of the classic car market, so now is the time to pile into 2 wheels.

F****ing incredible. If there's one thing I know its my motorbikes - I have a garage full of them from the 1980s / 90s. The article was amazing because:

a) They got their "classics" wrong, like very wrong, and

b ) They completely forgot to mention how difficult these things are to preserve...that is a job in itself. If you have to pay someone to do it you'll lose a decade's appreciation in one service, even if they sky rocket as predicted. Even then most mechanics don't understand bikes of this era, the ones that do retired mainly. Good luck getting a set of carburettors overhauled and balanced (the reason people keep asking me to do theirs).

The housing market, BTL, art etc, all get blown up by people with access to money being told this is the place to put it. As someone commenting on the bike article said - this all collapses when the money stops swishing around. I wonder which craze will replace houses as the next investment come the next boom?

 

 

 

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My Father in-law is in to restoring 1960s Triumphs, so he might be in for a late life bonanza?

Should i make an offer on his latest project, 1963 Triumph Bonneville, now in showroom condition in his dining room, or perhaps fund his next project?

Edited by Snagger

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55 minutes ago, Snagger said:

My Father in-law is in to restoring 1960s Triumphs, so he might be in for a late life bonanza?

Should i make an offer on his latest project, 1963 Triumph Bonneville, now in showroom condition in his dining room, or perhaps fund his next project?

Interesting one - the Bonnie is the era of retiring bikers. Any trip to the Classic TT  in the Isle of Man will show you just how plentiful that era of bikes are - thousands of them. I can see a time where there are no takers for that type of bike - anyone raised on Jap stuff from the 70s onwards won't touch the older British stuff. I can actually see it all falling in price - not just reduced demand but near zero demand - same is happening with certain more run of the mill cars from that era apparently.

Meanwhile 70s and 80s jap classics are going nuts...but only in bike terms. The bit these half wit experts miss - bikers in the main don't spend much money on toys, few bikes ever become worth much, even the old stuff. Only car buyers waste money to excess.

That said I wish my father in-law had a 63 Bonneville - I strongly recommend you do your bike test, then take it over to the Classic TT, you'll never look back. 

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2 hours ago, wsn03 said:

I've noticed that housing, and every other bubble, comes from idiots with too much money looking for somewhere to put it.

As soon as people start talking about the safe haven, and "experts" start advising people, the haven becomes a bubble.

I know someone in that very situation, who dived into a beach hut that I think he paid 20k for, some really sought after location blah blah. 20 grand for a shed with no utilities, incredible.

The one that leaves me dumfounded is run of the mill "classic" cars - Ford Escort RS2000s were going for up to 40k until mid this year. I had one, they weren't very good unless you were a rally driver in the 1970s.  I found some article in the Guardian written by another "expert" interviewing an "expert" who pointed out the "froth" (pretentious a55holes) had gone out of the classic car market, so now is the time to pile into 2 wheels.

F****ing incredible. If there's one thing I know its my motorbikes - I have a garage full of them from the 1980s / 90s. The article was amazing because:

a) They got their "classics" wrong, like very wrong, and

b ) They completely forgot to mention how difficult these things are to preserve...that is a job in itself. If you have to pay someone to do it you'll lose a decade's appreciation in one service, even if they sky rocket as predicted. Even then most mechanics don't understand bikes of this era, the ones that do retired mainly. Good luck getting a set of carburettors overhauled and balanced (the reason people keep asking me to do theirs).

The housing market, BTL, art etc, all get blown up by people with access to money being told this is the place to put it. As someone commenting on the bike article said - this all collapses when the money stops swishing around. I wonder which craze will replace houses as the next investment come the next boom?

 

 

 

20k Thats a bargain :-)

10 Norfolk

Location: Wells-next-the-Sea

Price: £69,000

Agent: Sowerbys, 01328 711711; sowerbys.com

This is a brand new hut on the north Norfolk coast. It is close to the lifeboat station, and if you get bored of the sea views, then there is a rear window overlooking pinewoods. Wells is one of Britain’s most attractive coastal resorts and highlights include a miniature steam train and a pub on a boat.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/experts/article-3362762/Do-need-declare-beach-hut-HMRC-pay-capital-gains-tax.html

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25 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

20k Thats a bargain :-)

10 Norfolk

Location: Wells-next-the-Sea

Price: £69,000

Agent: Sowerbys, 01328 711711; sowerbys.com

This is a brand new hut on the north Norfolk coast. It is close to the lifeboat station, and if you get bored of the sea views, then there is a rear window overlooking pinewoods. Wells is one of Britain’s most attractive coastal resorts and highlights include a miniature steam train and a pub on a boat.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/experts/article-3362762/Do-need-declare-beach-hut-HMRC-pay-capital-gains-tax.html

No way! 69k!!! I bet the people who bought the first one can't believe it. What on earth is going on? I'm stumped....I can buy a whole house in N Wales for that ,with utilities!

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1 hour ago, wsn03 said:

Interesting one - the Bonnie is the era of retiring bikers. Any trip to the Classic TT  in the Isle of Man will show you just how plentiful that era of bikes are - thousands of them. I can see a time where there are no takers for that type of bike - anyone raised on Jap stuff from the 70s onwards won't touch the older British stuff. I can actually see it all falling in price - not just reduced demand but near zero demand - same is happening with certain more run of the mill cars from that era apparently.

Meanwhile 70s and 80s jap classics are going nuts...but only in bike terms. The bit these half wit experts miss - bikers in the main don't spend much money on toys, few bikes ever become worth much, even the old stuff. Only car buyers waste money to excess.

That said I wish my father in-law had a 63 Bonneville - I strongly recommend you do your bike test, then take it over to the Classic TT, you'll never look back. 

That's a shame on the get rich quick scheme, but it's his hobby rather than a business, he's reliving his youth as he bought a brand new bonnie in 63. He doesn't ride his restored one, it's for show only, though it does run and has a valid MOT.

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I'd say previous bubbles (South Sea, Tulip, Railway etc) have generally been limited to a relatively small group of mugs investors... i.e. gullible rich people.

 

The difference with this current asset price bubble (and that includes more than just property) is that it's open to just about everyone, to a greater or lesser extent, thanks to the wonders of cheap n easy credit for the masses.

 

This bubble is debt fuelled rather than just fuelled by a few idiots with too much money 

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35 minutes ago, Snagger said:

That's a shame on the get rich quick scheme, but it's his hobby rather than a business, he's reliving his youth as he bought a brand new bonnie in 63. He doesn't ride his restored one, it's for show only, though it does run and has a valid MOT.

Mine are hobbies - I'm now at a stage where (and I never thought this day would come) all my bikes are no longer falling in value. Its irrelevant because they are just a hobby, but nice that I haven't chucked money down the pan - all the bikes are worth far more than I paid for them apart from one that I bought brand new - give it about 20 years and it will be too. I'd never advise bikes as an investment, you have to be really really good at looking after them - I think they are less robust than cars myself, though less to go wrong too.

I love those bonnies. Seriously go to the Isle of Man in August for the classic TT, you'll see thousands of bikes like that parked up and out and about everywhere, its an amazing place to be.

 

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36 minutes ago, nome said:

The difference with this current asset price bubble (and that includes more than just property) is that it's open to just about everyone, to a greater or lesser extent, thanks to the wonders of cheap n easy credit for the masses.

 

This bubble is debt fuelled rather than just fuelled by a few idiots with too much money 

I'd perhaps add the effect of the media too...you can't believe the amount of people I know who listen to a radio report or read it online saying house prices will go up to an  average of a million pounds or whatever, and they believe it like its a reported (rather than vested interest) fact !! Its quite scary "they said on the radio that house prices blah  blah blah..." Its not helped by the fact that the people who run the bubble also pay for the media advertising that supports the stupid "expert" claims - its all so screwed up and distorted, and no one has to declare their vested interest.

With property the endless flood of programmes since the turn of the century literally jacking themselves off over property, that can't have helped. People used to see houses as a place to live.

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1 hour ago, wsn03 said:

No way! 69k!!! I bet the people who bought the first one can't believe it. What on earth is going on? I'm stumped....I can buy a whole house in N Wales for that ,with utilities!

Only £69k, what's wrong with it?

£100k in 2004 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1475719/Tiny-Dorset-beach-hut-sells-for-100000.html

£100k in Wales 2015 http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/beach-hut-sells-100000-after-6167621

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Its ******....serious ******....probably boomers who have too much "wealth" in their houses.

My shed is for sale, £10,000...I will place it on the verge outside my house with fresh towels and pan (for you to relieve yourself in).

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21 minutes ago, wsn03 said:

I'd perhaps add the effect of the media too...you can't believe the amount of people I know who listen to a radio report or read it online saying house prices will go up to an  average of a million pounds or whatever, and they believe it like its a reported (rather than vested interest) fact !! Its quite scary "they said on the radio that house prices blah  blah blah..." Its not helped by the fact that the people who run the bubble also pay for the media advertising that supports the stupid "expert" claims - its all so screwed up and distorted, and no one has to declare their vested interest.

With property the endless flood of programmes since the turn of the century literally jacking themselves off over property, that can't have helped. People used to see houses as a place to live.

 

And the effect of Social Media... The impact of one debt junkie on Facebook flaunting their new build dream home, leased Audi etc to their 300 mug facebook friends can't be underestimated, it's keeping up with Jones's on a whole bigger scale. 

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5 minutes ago, nome said:

 

And the effect of Social Media... The impact of one debt junkie on Facebook flaunting their new build dream home, leased Audi etc to their 300 mug facebook friends can't be underestimated, it's keeping up with Jones's on a whole bigger scale. 

Of course, yes, I have many friends constantly gloating their wealth...one even put the estate agents advert up so we could all see how much he paid for his house.

Most of them are seriously up the creek of course, but the gloating continues with certain vigour.

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26 minutes ago, wsn03 said:

Of course, yes, I have many friends constantly gloating their wealth...one even put the estate agents advert up so we could all see how much he paid for his house.

Most of them are seriously up the creek of course, but the gloating continues with certain vigour.

 

When you think of the days before social media existed, if you wanted to flaunt you're new build slave box and all your lovely possessions inside it just how many people would actually get to see it?... Probably no more than a dozen or so of your friends and family.

 

Now people gloat to 300,400,500 even 1000 people at a time all courtesy of their facebook ''friends'' list.

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Is it too indulgent to list my dream 1990-2005 garage of Japanese sports bikes that aren't *that* exotic like an RC30/RC45 or OW-01 and still somewhat obtainable. It is? Never mind. I think all of these will be worth a splendid sum in time. Off the top of my head then....

1990 Honda VFR400R NC30 (HRC colours)

1993 Honda Fireblade 893cc

1998 Kawasaki ZX-7R (green)

1998 Yamaha R1 in red/white

1998 Honda Blackbird (carbed) black

1999 Suzuki Hayabusa (derestricted)

1999 Suzuki GXSR 600 (SRAD)

2000 Kawasaki ZX-12r (green)

2001 Suzuki GSXR 1000 K1 (blue/white)

2002 Yamaha R1 in silver

2002 Honda SP-2 (Castrol)

2003 953cc Honda Fireblade Red/Black

2003 Kawasaki Z1000 (orange)

2003 Kawasaki ZX-6RR (green)

2004 Kawasaki ZX-10R (green)

2005 GSXR 1000 k5 (blue and white)

Done. No interest in any bike after then apart from a Desmosedici RR, and that isn't Japanese.

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2 hours ago, Frugal Git said:

Is it too indulgent to list my dream 1990-2005 garage of Japanese sports bikes that aren't *that* exotic like an RC30/RC45 or OW-01 and still somewhat obtainable. It is? Never mind. I think all of these will be worth a splendid sum in time. Off the top of my head then....

1990 Honda VFR400R NC30 (HRC colours)

1993 Honda Fireblade 893cc

1998 Kawasaki ZX-7R (green)

1998 Yamaha R1 in red/white

1998 Honda Blackbird (carbed) black

1999 Suzuki Hayabusa (derestricted)

1999 Suzuki GXSR 600 (SRAD)

2000 Kawasaki ZX-12r (green)

2001 Suzuki GSXR 1000 K1 (blue/white)

2002 Yamaha R1 in silver

2002 Honda SP-2 (Castrol)

2003 953cc Honda Fireblade Red/Black

2003 Kawasaki Z1000 (orange)

2003 Kawasaki ZX-6RR (green)

2004 Kawasaki ZX-10R (green)

2005 GSXR 1000 k5 (blue and white)

Done. No interest in any bike after then apart from a Desmosedici RR, and that isn't Japanese.

Ok...as it happens i appear to have something on that might leave me with a few quid to invest that i wasn't expecting...so I've been thinking about my collection to be...

Bikes i have now:

Gsxr - import mk1 F

Speed Triple Mk1

Tzr 250

Bandit 12 mk1

 

 

My future collection for investment/ museum display

1985 blue gsxr 750 F

1986 blue 1100 gsxr 1100 (the most valuable of all gixxers i reckon)

Duc 888 - 1991

Duc 916 - 1993

RC45 - 1996?

VTR (the wsbk colin  Edwards won on...whatever its called) - circa 2000

The Suzuki equivalent that used to mishandle - circa 2000 ish

MV 600 (from today)

Triumph Supersport 600 (from today)

A Zxr 750...but dont know which year yet

Any sports Rotary...put into race trim

Then I'd start cherry picking race bikes of interest with history... late 70s - mid 90s

 

 

 

Edited by wsn03

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Bitcoin! - Now almost back to its eye bleedingly high levels. http://www.coindesk.com/price/

Tin mines in cornwall were also a sort of bubble, build a huge engine house, tell the londoners that you have a big engine house. They invest. The cornish are the only ones making money. 

sometimes you can spot bubbles coming from a mile away. History just repeats 

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And what's the problem again?

People are free to do whatever they want with their hard earned (or lotto, or drugs or inheritance...) money.

And yes, you are right, there are a lot of millionaires out there. And increasing.

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1 hour ago, wsn03 said:

Ok...as it happens i appear to have something on that might leave me with a few quid to invest that i wasn't expecting...so I've been thinking about my collection to be...

Bikes i have now:

Gsxr - import mk1 F

Speed Triple Mk1

Tzr 250

Bandit 12 mk1

 

 

My future collection for investment/ museum display

1985 blue gsxr 750 F

1986 blue 1100 gsxr 1100 (the most valuable of all gixxers i reckon)

Duc 888 - 1991

Duc 916 - 1993

RC45 - 1996?

VTR (the wsbk colin  Edwards won on...whatever its called) - circa 2000

The Suzuki equivalent that used to mishandle - circa 2000 ish

MV 600 (from today)

Triumph Supersport 600 (from today)

A Zxr 750...but dont know which year yet

Any sports Rotary...put into race trim

Then I'd start cherry picking race bikes of interest with history... late 70s - mid 90s

All good choices.

The Edwards Honda you want is the SP2 in Castrol colours I mentioned - not the VTR1000 standard which was half faired. The Suzuki equivalent of that which i think was maligned unfairly was the TL1000S - great bike.

I think a good zx7r is easier to find than the zxr750 - but either is a solid choice.

An RC45 is already silly money, but of course I'd have that and an rc30 in the dream garage.

For European bikes you've named the great choices of the 916 and 888, I'd go for a 996s if I could find a good one. I also think - and I'm alone on this 749/ 999 styling look good today, and they are much cheaper. So maybe a 749R if one popped up for a good price.

I'd also look at getting an Aprilia rs250 and a good rsv1000r (old style) factory.

For the race bikes....get an R7. Nitro Nori Haga-san style. Worth more than a central London flat eventually imho.

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I bought my Norfolk beach hut for £500 in 1975 and have now sold it for £55,000:

You could probably still buy a similar hut for somewhere in the region of £500 but these days Britain has become so hidebound by rules, regulations, red tape and make work bureaucracy that you wouldn't be allowed to officially put it anywhere similar.

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I think the next investment opportunities will be in artisan food: delis, posh bakeries, real ale etc. Farmer's markets are experiencing gentrification.

People have had enough of mass-produced packets of chemicals masquerading as food.

 

 

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