TheCountOfNowhere Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Does anyone know is such a London MOM price collapse has previously happened ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 (edited) Prime london down 8.7% yoy,, suddenly the cat is out the bag,. Edited December 12, 2016 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
999house Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 5 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: No. It could be better than it appears. `how so ? (sorry if being dumb) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
999house Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: Price london down 8.7%,, suddenly the cat is out the bag,. Where? Do you have a linky? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crash&Carry Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 10 minutes ago, 999house said: So in other words things could be worse than it appears? I suspect things could be a lot 'worse' (you mean better, right!?) as from what I have seen of new listings there have in recent weeks been quite a few ridiculous kite flyers who presumably may be trying to build in a more significant negotiation buffer when it comes to a potential actual sales price (although most don't get near an actual sale these days). Non of this is picked up on RM stats (i think?) . Remember - we haven't yet reached anywhere like a Capitulation phase, which if and when it arrives , not least by the BTL brigade will I hope hasten in more accelerated reduction stats. #Happydays Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
999house Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 5 minutes ago, Crash&Carry said: I suspect things could be a lot 'worse' (you mean better, right!?) as from what I have seen of new listings there have in recent weeks been quite a few ridiculous kite flyers who presumably may be trying to build in a more significant negotiation buffer when it comes to a potential actual sales price (although most don't get near an actual sale these days). Non of this is picked up on RM stats (i think?) . Remember - we haven't yet reached anywhere like a Capitulation phase, which if and when it arrives , not least by the BTL brigade will I hope hasten in more accelerated reduction stats. #Happydays yes i did mean better. See what you mean. I spoke to some estate agents last week and all said people are only selling if they lower asking prices by 10-15%. Doesnt sound like much, but considering things were going for above asking price in 2014 its a good sign. This data confirms what they are saying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sisyphal Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 (edited) 43 minutes ago, 999house said: Where? Do you have a linky? See Digsby's links. I've cut the table to make it easier and attached it Bottom right of table. Prime London down 8.7% Year on Year, and that's just the asking prices. Reality will be even worse Edited December 12, 2016 by sisyphal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC1 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 hours ago, 200p said: Has anyone created a bid (Rightmove) and ask (Land Registry) spread? I'm sure a poster on here did that some years ago. If I recall correctly it was dubbed the 'Delusion Index' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
999house Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 26 minutes ago, sisyphal said: See Digsby's links. I've cut the table to make it easier and attached it Bottom right of table. Prime London down 8.7% Year on Year, and that's just the asking prices. Reality will be even worse Wow, thats almost 200k of asking prices. % doesnt do justification for absolute decline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvoidDebt Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Any more news on them canny sellers at the top end? People at the top of the chain pyramid purchasing at the bottom in order to complete the chain. I thought not, I'd be surprised if even one person considered that in passing, beggars belief how much BS one industry can churn out. Worth a read. Paul Hodges latest, he's calling it a collapse. It peaked at 10.4x avg. earnings!!. http://www.icis.com/blogs/chemicals-and-the-economy/2016/12/london-house-prices-start-collapse/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolfie84 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 26 minutes ago, LC1 said: I'm sure a poster on here did that some years ago. If I recall correctly it was dubbed the 'Delusion Index' Found the link above. The latest chart in there is from 2013. I think November 2016 figures would have this at 1.49 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 hour ago, 999house said: `how so ? (sorry if being dumb) Price falls are good, not bad. "Worse" means bad. This is not bad news, this is great news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 5 minutes ago, AvoidDebt said: Any more news on them canny sellers at the top end? People at the top of the chain pyramid purchasing at the bottom in order to complete the chain. You'd be mad not to right now. Massive gains and a BTL pad for cash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onlyme2 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I'm sure there's all sorts of ways they can paint the tape too - kitchen sinking the bad sales results for one or two months and then playing catchup for the bright new happy clap HPI new year so that the market gets off on the right foot in the spring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I cant believe this is the main news topic on the BBC right now. Only joking of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 4 hours ago, the_duke_of_hazzard said: So we believe this index now? Righty-ho! It is so very mathematically bad an index, and spun so much, it is heart-warming to see the direction of travel. If even this yard stick can be good.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pablo Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 26 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: I cant believe this is the main news topic on the BBC right now. Only joking of course. It is almost a joke, it doesn't even list in the 'Housing' section of the BBC News app but if there is even a whiff of someone stating something positive it gets straight in there. No doubt there was a mention in the live days updates feed but 'missed' for general news updates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digsby Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 23 minutes ago, Sajid the Taxmeister said: It is so very mathematically bad an index, and spun so much, it is heart-warming to see the direction of travel. If even this yard stick can be good.... It's best off thought of as a sentiment index. The nature of it though means that when it says asking prices are rising, sold prices will be rising to a lesser degree. When it says says asking prices are falling, sold prices will be falling to a greater degree. So there is logic in sitting up and paying attention when it starts talking about falls of this magnitude. Plus, bears need to eat too! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patient London FTB Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 35 minutes ago, Wolfie84 said: Found the link above. The latest chart in there is from 2013. I think November 2016 figures would have this at 1.49 Fished the chart out of that thread for you. If your 1.49 is right that is just higher than anything seen between 2002 and 2013. Hat tip to Neon Tetra, wherever he/she may be now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
999house Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 59 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: Price falls are good, not bad. "Worse" means bad. This is not bad news, this is great news Ah ok. You had me worried then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 hour ago, 999house said: Ah ok. You had me worried then. It's funny how the human mind works. people have been conditions to think of falling prices as bad news, inflation is good and all that. Whereas, falling prices , of any kind is great news for the majority Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolfie84 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 21 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: It's funny how the human mind works. people have been conditions to think of falling prices as bad news, inflation is good and all that. Whereas, falling prices , of any kind is great news for the majority I know, it's quite straightforward really. Less more on housing = more money on holidays. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 27 minutes ago, Wolfie84 said: I know, it's quite straightforward really. Less more on housing = more money on holidays. More money building a future, planning for retirement, enjoying your life, looking after your children, looking after your family. The UK housing bubble is a disaster for a generation, the same ones complaining that people should have stayed in the EU to give them a future.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePiltdownMan Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 13 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: More money building a future, planning for retirement, enjoying your life, looking after your children, looking after your family. More difficult to tax those things though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nome Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 It must be only my areas of interest (Derbyshire, Snowdonia and Anglesey) that are the only places in the whole country where every new house coming on to the market is still anywhere between 10%-20% higher than the last comparable sale... and to make it even worse there seems to almost always be some mug willing to pay! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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