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December Housing Transaction Figures Released

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Guest wrongmove
Property transactions up in December

Mon Jan 23, 2006 11:53 AM GMT

LONDON (Reuters) - The number of property transactions in England and Wales rose in December, tax authority data showed on Monday.

Britain's HM Revenue and Customs said the number of property transactions rose to 153,000 in December in seasonally adjusted terms from an upwardly revised 152,000 in November.

Property transactions data are widely viewed as a lagging indicator of Britain's housing market as they reflect residential stamp duty payments on purchase completion.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticl...&archived=False

Edited - I posted this as these are the first figure compiled since SIPPs were withdrawn. As predicted here originally, SIPPs seems to have had very little effect.

Edited by wrongmove

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I don't have figures to hand but I suspect this is a very. very big figure for a December - with this kind of momentum, I think I may have to revise my prediction of broad stagnation in house prices to a rise of 5-10%.

Up, up and away.

:D

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I don't have figures to hand but I suspect this is a very. very big figure for a December - with this kind of momentum, I think I may have to revise my prediction of broad stagnation in house prices to a rise of 5-10%.

Up, up and away.

:D

Very true..

...this 'unseasonal' surge shows the pent up demand from buyers who had been sitting on their hands for the past 12-18 months waiting to see which way the market would go. Confidence has returned to the market and I am afraid we are once again looking at a 5-10% price increase in 2006.

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Very true..

...this 'unseasonal' surge shows the pent up demand from buyers who had been sitting on their hands for the past 12-18 months waiting to see which way the market would go. Confidence has returned to the market and I am afraid we are once again looking at a 5-10% price increase in 2006.

Guess it's time to trade up then while the going's good. Shame everyone is wasting so much of their income on basic shelter, but there we go. There's no getting away from the reality it seems. Might as well pour petrol on the flames and unleash some of the savings on a bigger place. 2006 could be a new boom!

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Guess it's time to trade up then while the going's good. Shame everyone is wasting so much of their income on basic shelter, but there we go. There's no getting away from the reality it seems. Might as well pour petrol on the flames and unleash some of the savings on a bigger place. 2006 could be a new boom!

And just when 99% of you have been suckered into believing that it'll go up for ever - it all goes pop. That's how irrational equity markets are.

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Guess it's time to trade up then while the going's good. Shame everyone is wasting so much of their income on basic shelter, but there we go. There's no getting away from the reality it seems. Might as well pour petrol on the flames and unleash some of the savings on a bigger place. 2006 could be a new boom!

I am absolutely convinced that if buying your own home is an option (vis a vis the case with several people for whom it is not a realistic option because of affordability issues), you should not waste any time renting waiting for the HPC to happen.....for it is NOT going to happen, how much ever people on this website would will it to.

That is the sad fact...the high property prices are not good for the society as a whole...make no mistake about that fact. However, they are not coming down. If anything, the property market was just pausing for breath in 2005 after a heady decade or so, and there are sure signs now that the inexorable climb has started again.

(And it is not 'dead cat bounce' or whatever the clever economists would like to call it!

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However, they are not coming down. If anything, the property market was just pausing for breath in 2005 after a heady decade or so, and there are sure signs now that the inexorable climb has started again.

(And it is not 'dead cat bounce' or whatever the clever economists would like to call it!

Maybe the coming IR rises will bounce the dead cat. ;)

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This was very predictable after the IR cut. it doesn't really change the fundamentals of the market - we're talking £30 difference a month for the average house, but it does help sentiment quite a bit and the belief that we're in a new paradigm of permanently low rates blah blah. You could take the contrarian approach and view it as to how sensitive the market is to micro-movements in interest rates at this level. The whole house of cards will come down eventually - 5% rates will definitely see to that.

Incidentally, what's will be the effect if US rates are level or above ours? I genuinely don't know - any good economists out there want to have a go at this?

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(And it is not 'dead cat bounce' or whatever the clever economists would like to call it!

That phrase is misused frequently on this site.

"Dead Cat Bounce": the small bounce in a market price after it has fallen a long way. Based on the idea that even a dead cat will bounce if you drop it from high enough.

Note that a huge fall is required before a dead cat bounce can occur. Unfortunately we haven't had the fall yet. Perhaps the cat has just been kicked off the top of a 20 storey building, and is rising a few feet into the air before gravity takes its toll and sends it plummeting earthwards where it can have its bounce?

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An increase in transactions of 1 thousand from Nov to Dec doesnt seem that impressive to me.

These maybe increasing transactions due to prices falling.

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I am absolutely convinced that if buying your own home is an option (vis a vis the case with several people for whom it is not a realistic option because of affordability issues), you should not waste any time renting waiting for the HPC to happen.....for it is NOT going to happen, how much ever people on this website would will it to.

That is the sad fact...the high property prices are not good for the society as a whole...make no mistake about that fact. However, they are not coming down. If anything, the property market was just pausing for breath in 2005 after a heady decade or so, and there are sure signs now that the inexorable climb has started again.

(And it is not 'dead cat bounce' or whatever the clever economists would like to call it!

I don't think there are many people sitting on their hands - anyone who relies on mainstream media will be under the impression that all is well in the housing market, and it has ever been thus since 2001. The lack of FTBs is down to affordability, not sentiment. I don't see a crash without a shock - but in an era where real inflation is matching wage inflation, unemployment is growing, growth is low and retail is suffering, I cannot see how current prices can be sustained even in the near term. This year might see spring gains, but we're only a couple of hurricanes/succesful terrorist attack on an oil refinery/sanctions on Iran away from $80 oil. I think you'd get long odds on none of the preceding happening within the next 12 months.

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I don't see a crash without a shock - but in an era where real inflation is matching wage inflation, unemployment is growing, growth is low and retail is suffering, I cannot see how current prices can be sustained even in the near term. This year might see spring gains, but we're only a couple of hurricanes/succesful terrorist attack on an oil refinery/sanctions on Iran away from $80 oil. I think you'd get long odds on none of the preceding happening within the next 12 months.

I'd agree with this. But I have a feeling that prices are going to keep showing small YOY gains for some time to come (with the odd blip).

I not planning to buy another property for at least three years. if the economy gets a big shock then maybe I'll buy sooner (depends on the type of shock!)

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That phrase is misused frequently on this site.

"Dead Cat Bounce": the small bounce in a market price after it has fallen a long way. Based on the idea that even a dead cat will bounce if you drop it from high enough.

Note that a huge fall is required before a dead cat bounce can occur. Unfortunately we haven't had the fall yet. Perhaps the cat has just been kicked off the top of a 20 storey building, and is rising a few feet into the air before gravity takes its toll and sends it plummeting earthwards where it can have its bounce?

Very true..... but hang on!!! TTRTR and a bunch of pesky BTLers have just bought all the flats on the upper storeys of the building.... one of them has stuck a leg out of a window and kicked the cat back up into orbit.......

Edited by Without_a_Paddle

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breath in 2005 after a heady decade or so, and there are sure signs now that the inexorable climb has started again.

I cant honestly believe that. The price to earnings ratio is just at to high a level. Up from 3 to nerearly 8 x arround where I live. I just dont believe that there is enough slack left for the ratio to change much more.

That being the case, there is no point giving the bank many tens of thousands of pounds in interest. Might as well just keep saving for another three or four years and buy outright.

Not only will I be many thousands of pounds better off I will be able to sleep at night. Peace of mind. A great thing. Especially now all the jobs are moving to China and Hungary.

It would only take a flap of a Buterfly's wings to bring the whole hosue of cards tumbling down. But it's you're money. If you want to give it to the bank. Go for it.

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Very true..... but hang on!!! TTRTR and a bunch of pesky BTLers have just bought all the flats on the upper storeys of the building.... one of them has stuck a leg out of a window and kicked the cat back up into orbit.......

Fear not! A plucky bear has leapt off the top of the building to interrupt the cats ascent, and send it crashing down clasped to his furry chest.

We may see a dead bear bounce.....or the shockwave from this big fella hitting the ground may bring the whole building down!

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I am absolutely convinced that if buying your own home is an option (vis a vis the case with several people for whom it is not a realistic option because of affordability issues), you should not waste any time renting waiting for the HPC to happen.....for it is NOT going to happen, how much ever people on this website would will it to.

That is the sad fact...the high property prices are not good for the society as a whole...make no mistake about that fact. However, they are not coming down. If anything, the property market was just pausing for breath in 2005 after a heady decade or so, and there are sure signs now that the inexorable climb has started again.

(And it is not 'dead cat bounce' or whatever the clever economists would like to call it!

Yep it certainly looks like the market has bottomed out at the peak of the cycle. :rolleyes:

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Fear not! A plucky bear has leapt off the top of the building to interrupt the cats ascent, and send it crashing down clasped to his furry chest.

We may see a dead bear bounce.....or the shockwave from this big fella hitting the ground may bring the whole building down!

Two BTLs look out of a top floor window of the bulding:

BTL1: "Damn!"

BTL2: "What's wrong?"

BTL1: "That bear was one of my best tenants!"

BTL2: "Well you shouldn't have thrown his cat out of the window..."

BTL1: "He knew the rules... no decorating, no smoking and NO PETS!"

BTL2: "What about his deposit?"

BTL1: :)

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An increase in transactions of 1 thousand from Nov to Dec doesnt seem that impressive to me.

These maybe increasing transactions due to prices falling.

It's impressive because the November figure was already very high, which makes it surprising that it can continue to increase in December, even by a small amount. The December figure is the third highest for any month since the beginning of 2002.

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An increase in transactions of 1 thousand from Nov to Dec doesnt seem that impressive to me.

These maybe increasing transactions due to prices falling.

Ah, yes but, IMO there isn't the forced selling we need for a crash (Who knows? May happen in the future). However, it probably shows that there isn't much of a squeeze on the EAs as some here would like. No squeeze on the market maker, little forced selling and no real downward pressure on prices.

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http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticl...&archived=False

Edited - I posted this as these are the first figure compiled since SIPPs were withdrawn. As predicted here originally, SIPPs seems to have had very little effect.

I love the housing market. one change and it impacts the market that nano-second.

Top Nasa enginears are looking into its causality matrix at the atomic level.

They figure if they can understand how the market reacts so quickly they may be able to actually create a new form of space drive.

Called the

"Please stop sounding quite so dumb" engine or the pssqsd drive.

what you say could be true, I see first time buyers apart from the very highly paid couples priced out.

Sipps is gone, and BTL, well they just standing empty..

BTL mortgage lending has dropped of as well..

I have used up all my arguments.. and they are all actually proving correct.

I seem to be falling back on not so clever abuse, and for that I appologise..

but there is a good point..

Friend is selling his house..

when he bought it he had to view and offer on the same day, the day it appeared at the EA's..

He's had it on the market for 6 weeks and not a sniff.

But he is riding high on equity.. he figures when it sells it sells, just as long as he can afford any difference.

Prices are dropping..

unfortunatly the exhaust dropped of my car this morning so I am allowed to be a little grumpy..

what an huge pain in the bum :)

forgive me

We can be told direct opposites about every facet of this market by the media daily..

For every Bull point there are several bear points..

But they are saying opposites..

Damn press...

Have to rely on my eyes

Edited by apom

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Quite a few people here correctly predicted that SIPPS would have little or no impact. Some Bulls thought it would have an effect on prices with completions after April. Maybe what has happened is that the people who were waiting for April have gone ahead a little earlier or maybe the people who thought prices would go up in April hurried their sales through before SIPPS was withdrawn. Who knows?

Edited by Given Up

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Quite a few people here correctly predicted that SIPPS would have little or no impact. Some Bulls thought it would have an effect on prices with completions after April. Maybe what has happened is that the people who were waiting for April have gone ahead a little earlier or maybe the people who thought prices would go up in April hurried their sales through before SIPPS was withdrawn. Who knows?

Sipps will impact.

Everything does I suppose..

But don't fail to take into account that Sipps was going to provide a lot more people with the ability to buy.

Blocks of flats bought of plan by Sipps investment companies to be sold in segments to Sipps investors were still sold and were common

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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