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JB1981

The economic cycle

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Before I start I am neither a bull nor a bear, I just have a passing interest in economics. Has anyone heard of the economic formula 18 + 4 + 4?

Please follow this link as it makes interesting reading. Please read the whole article before criticizing this. This article and expert's views goes against virtually everyone's current view on house prices including most economists.

Link withdrawn as it gave away my email address

This trend is proven to go back over 200 years. It shows that the present property bull market has around another 10 years to run (I personally don't see how but there you go). 

Before debunking this can you provide research to the contrary or your own views as to why this formula will not work this time around (other than World War III) as it has been shown to work almost exactly to this timeline since 1794 and has only been interrupted by World Wars I and II. 

I personally can only see this trend continuing by  a great inflation devaluing debt or massive wage increases as a result of inflation and new career frontiers (like in robotics and solar technology), medical breakthroughs continuing to increase life expectancy until an average age is 100+, an exponential increase in skilled jobs like engineering, a smooth great energy shift from oil to solar and also the continuing exponential technological advances being made throughout the world (just compare technology now to 20 years ago, it has been an exciting time to be living though and witnessing). Also the amount of properties being built has to continue to be less than demand!

I am looking forward to some good and interesting responses!

 

 

Edited by JB1981

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If you click to leave the page it then asks you if you want to leave the page or stay on the page. If you click stay it changes from a video to a written text

I promise you it is not spam, it is full of charts and is an alternative way of thought other than simply saying house prices are too high, there is too much debt in the system etc. Whilst I do not disagree with this, the charts are thought provoking

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RickyD, it is not a prediction, it is simply showing how the property has moved in the same loop for the last 222 years and that at present if the same cycle carrys on we have another 10 years of HPI in front of us

Common people, I was hoping for intelligent replies, not allegations it is spam and certainly not old quotes from ancient times

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That's not an article, that's a sales pitch/brainwashing exercise. An article has text and data, that garbage keeps repeating that "house prices will go up" without backing it up with anything (I didn't get to the end, there's only so much abuse my mind can put up with). If it was based on read data it would start with (some) data and the conclusion would follow from that.

Additionally, "the present property bull market" is actually "the cheap debt market". It's impossible to look at the housing market without looking at the financial system around it.

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4 minutes ago, stuckin2up2down said:

You do know that the link has given away an email address, presumably yours? 

Yes, I saw this as well.

Edited by Errol

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So now we don't even have a link, just you telling us that there's there's a very interesting and thought provoking video out there somewhere with charts and everything that says HPI will carry on for another 10 years.

Brilliant, thanks. That sure pooped my party.

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6 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I just read "Before I start I am neither a bull nor a bear"

The  started laughing.


Well done for managing 170 posts before coming out.

 

Fred Harrison's 18 year cycle & central bank analysis of credit cycles have been discussed on here many times in the past (not looked at this particular vid but assume it's a horse from that general stable)

Out of interest do you have anything to explain why you've been completely wrong since 2009 (8 years or so) so forum can examine the theory behind your incorrect claims?

It's always good to give these theories are good thrashing & examine counterfactuals as I'm sure you'd agree. May help you understand why you're permanently wrong as well which would be a useful self-development exercise

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We're in uncharted territory here, there has never been a set of circumstances like this before. I don't think history can tell us anything about what is going to happen next.

Even if the prediction that the 2007 was when a crash was due is correct, we didn't have a crash. If we had, then maybe the 2026 prediction would have some credibility, but we had a mini-crash lasting a few months followed by insane props causing a 50% recovery to peak prices, followed by 5 years of flat prices.

A crash would have sent prices back to 2001/4 prices. The current bounce did not start in 2011 as the cycle predicts but in 2013, it faltered and almost ended in early 2015.

We're in a mini bull run that has ran out of steam. It's over. This is end of the cycle, not the start. We're running on the fumes of sentiment and it's turning quickly.

The crash was delayed, that's all. 

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1 hour ago, JB1981 said:

RickyD, it is not a prediction

I do appreciate the link and it's always good to look at situations from every possible angle. I presume it's a model which aim's to show how we are at a certain stage within a property/land price cycle? So in a way it is predicting rises from here. To clarify my position, please consider the Forecast Illusion. Philip Tetlock, over a period of 10 years, evaluated 28,361 predictions from 284 self appointed professionals. The result in terms of accuracy was only marginally better than a random forecast generator. This applies to predictions in either direction (although predictions of doom and gloom faired worse). I haven't seen the video, but I might add that it's remarkable how charts and statistics can be fudged to support a particular theory. 

P.S. Apologies for the ancient quote :)

 

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1 hour ago, JB1981 said:

Before I start I am neither a bull nor a bear, I just have a passing interest in economics. Has anyone heard of the economic formula 18 + 4 + 4?

Please follow this link as it makes interesting reading. Please read the whole article before criticizing this. This article and expert's views goes against virtually everyone's current view on house prices including most economists.

Link withdrawn as it gave away my email address

This trend is proven to go back over 200 years. It shows that the present property bull market has around another 10 years to run (I personally don't see how but there you go). 

Before debunking this can you provide research to the contrary or your own views as to why this formula will not work this time around (other than World War III) as it has been shown to work almost exactly to this timeline since 1794 and has only been interrupted by World Wars I and II. 

I personally can only see this trend continuing by  a great inflation devaluing debt or massive wage increases as a result of inflation and new career frontiers (like in robotics and solar technology), medical breakthroughs continuing to increase life expectancy until an average age is 100+, an exponential increase in skilled jobs like engineering, a smooth great energy shift from oil to solar and also the continuing exponential technological advances being made throughout the world (just compare technology now to 20 years ago, it has been an exciting time to be living though and witnessing). Also the amount of properties being built has to continue to be less than demand!

I am looking forward to some good and interesting responses!

 

 

you are assuming that the property cycle had a natural correction around 8 years ago, which it did not.

"stimulus" was added, thereby pulling the elastic band just that little bit tighter.

everybody know what happens when you pull an elastic band too tight. you reach that point where it just snaps,and causes a whole heap of hurt to stingy fingers.

we are now talking playing tug-of-war with car-towing bungee rather than office stationery.

 

by the way,the BIG money is going into energy STORAGE,energy production costs now are quite low,and efficiency for these is improving all the time...however keeping a useful decentralised quantity on hand for either business or consumer is lagging behind.

Edited by oracle

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4 minutes ago, oracle said:

everybody know what happens when you pull an elastic band too tight...

we are now talking playing tug-of-war with car-towing bungee rather than office stationery.

A very good analogy... I'm going to steal that if that's okay!

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1 hour ago, RickyD said:

"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge. "

--Lao Tzu, 6th Century BC Chinese Poet

 

 

Anyone can say that shit and sound clever

'Those who dont speak are never wrong, those who do are less likely right'

999House 2016

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This same link was being promoted by someone on Poverty118 earlier this morning.  Ros wanted to know what our response to the "analysis" would be.  As in the comments above, I don't trust links that start a video that you can't scroll through, and then try to stop you moving away from the page.  If they had a proper argument to make they would present it in a more sensible fashion.

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The problem with ths type of spam that keeps parpings on and on about x y and z without ever explaining why x y z is happening is that punters get switched off, especally as they cannot forward it. Do you expect me to waste 10 minutes of my life, waiting until the end and it says,send me you email and credit card and you get the reasons why. My suggestion would be to give content in the first 30 secs or expect to be accused of spam.

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