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SarahBell

Runway vs brexit

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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/02/lib-dems-unseat-zac-goldsmith-in-richmond-park-byelection

So was it a huge mistake to think people cared about the runway there, or have people just thought the brexit/remain argument was more valid at this particular moment in time?


Historically  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richmond_Park_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

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Actually just seems to be a return to the norm. 

The runway is a bit of a side show given both the main candidates were against. 

The big thing is the fact Labour lost their deposit, clearly many Labour voters would have voted tactically. 

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This constituency voted massively against brexit in the referendum anyway, so I'm not sure what all the fuss is about. We already know that they are 'remainers'.

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I live in that constuency.  The seat has always been pretty much a toss up between Con and LD anyway - Labour come nowhere. 

They were both on the same side re the runway, so I dare say Brexit was the decider - it was a heavy vote for Remain here. 

Actually Zac was IMO a pretty good and generally popular MP - at least you got a quick and proper reply to emails, not a standard one bashed out by a hack. He held a lot of regular meetings for anyone to attend and raise ?s.  

The LDs really pushed the boat out for this one - a vast amount of orange paper has been shoved through our letterbox during the past few weeks. 

 

 

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A tactical vote by a London constituency wanting to keep the London/EU relationship bubbling on.

I see this vote as a good thing in that'll help focus minds to the rest of the Pro Brexit country outside of the M25 should no meaningful Brexit occur by the end of this Parliament. . 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, casual_squash said:

A tactical vote by a London constituency wanting to keep the London/EU relationship bubbling on.

Yes and a totally irrelevant one as it didn't tell us anything that we don't know already.

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Typical revisionist interpretation, probably nothing to do with Brexit for most of the voters. More that Zack Goldsmith (outside of the Conservative umbrella) isn't a very likeable character who had done himself no favours by his mayoral campaign. When you think Zack Goldsmith you don't think leave campaigner, you think tax dodging millionaire who wanted to be mayor but had no vision to sell.

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Well, it was a lesson for all politicians.

Goldsmith probably thought that by his principled stand (Standing down) he would become a popular hero.

His constituency recognised him for what he really is.

Another useless windbag.

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3 minutes ago, winkie said:

....he might have won if the conservatives had put in a candidate.....who knows.;)

There was no Conservative candidate. My thoughts exactly.:mellow:

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6 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

Brexit took a hell of a beating last night.

Not sure how you worked that one out, if it's along the lines of a swing away from pro-brexit conservatives to anti-brexit Libdem, the reality is 45% voted for "Brexit" by association as opposed to roughly 33% during the referendum. 

So the way I see it people are seeing the light and moving over from remain to leave, seeing the errors of their ways. 

 

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3 minutes ago, gilf said:

Not sure how you worked that one out, if it's along the lines of a swing away from pro-brexit conservatives to anti-brexit Libdem, the reality is 45% voted for "Brexit" by association as opposed to roughly 33% during the referendum. 

So the way I see it people are seeing the light and moving over from remain to leave, seeing the errors of their ways. 

 

The election was called on the basis of sending a statement about Heathrow.  Instead the people elected someone to vote down A50.

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1 hour ago, hotairmail said:

I also think a lot of people would not cast their votes for someone who resigned and caused all this extra hassle and cost for the taxpayer.

And I agree re being unlikable. It takes some doing to lose to Sadiq Khan. Plus he clearly had his eyes on other posts rather than focusing on representing the constituents.

Khan had a 15-20% head start - whites are the only ethnic group that don't vote according to in group preference. Also, Goldsmith's campaign severely miscalculated by bringing up concerns about Khan's ties to extremist groups - that made Khan seem like a victim and SJWs will always vote for the biggest victim. It will have also gained a lot of votes from people who know in their hearts that Islam is all manner of wrong but suppress those feelings because they don't want to be a terrible racist. 

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The Labour vote of 1,515 is less than the 1,600 Labour Party membership in the constuancy. That must be the most epic failure to get out the vote in democratic history.

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1 hour ago, Freeholder said:

The Labour vote of 1,515 is less than the 1,600 Labour Party membership in the constuancy. That must be the most epic failure to get out the vote in democratic history.

That's brilliant! 

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I'm surprised this has been relegated to Off Topic considering how much emphasis the bremoaners are placing on this result... they're practically claiming this has made the referendum result null and void.

 

Seriously, can anyone think of any other local by-election, the result of which has generated as much hyperbole and exaggerated conclusion drawing as this one?

 

I wonder if the referendum had been a remain vote and there was then a by-election in say, Oldham North, if the result of that would then be all over the news and exclaimed as such a ''huge protest against the referendum''??

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9 hours ago, Hail the Tripod said:

Typical revisionist interpretation, probably nothing to do with Brexit for most of the voters. More that Zack Goldsmith (outside of the Conservative umbrella) isn't a very likeable character who had done himself no favours by his mayoral campaign. When you think Zack Goldsmith you don't think leave campaigner, you think tax dodging millionaire who wanted to be mayor but had no vision to sell.

Plus Goldsmith spent years pretending to be a free thinker not shackled to the party machine, then he ran a mayoral campaign that was 100% Lynton Crosby and an 'independent' by-election manned by the local Conservative constituency party. Voters don't like two-faced politicians.

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10 hours ago, Hail the Tripod said:

Typical revisionist interpretation, probably nothing to do with Brexit for most of the voters. More that Zack Goldsmith (outside of the Conservative umbrella) isn't a very likeable character who had done himself no favours by his mayoral campaign. When you think Zack Goldsmith you don't think leave campaigner, you think tax dodging millionaire who wanted to be mayor but had no vision to sell.

Disagree it was probably 60% to do with Brexit.

The point is the anti-Brexit vote is now focused on one party, i.e. The Lib Dems, and consequently they will get a huge boost in most constituencies.

Before the referendum some political wonks who were obsessed with opposing Europe focused their efforts on one party, i.e UKIP. With the Brexit vote in place a somewhat larger group who oppose Brexit are doing the same. It is entirely predictable.

Now almost every Tory MP in the countrt will need to worry about swings to the Lib Dems. You only need 20% of the electorate galvanised in one direction to change the outcome in a lot of seats.

BTW, I am not a fan of the Lib Dems, they are too left wing for me. But I might have to vote for them if my MP takes a pro-Brexit stance.

 

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Don't think many people care about the runway.  Heard the bbc business programme the day after the runway decision, they were in the area local to Heathrow, almost everyone said it was good for the area, in the end, in the interests of balance they had to twist the arm of a 7 year old child to make them say it would make more noise in their classroom.

 

I think Goldsmith badly judged the interest of the average person in London over this issue.  His dad though was a real visionary.  I recommend this video from 1994 in which he talks about the EU and globalisation:

 

 

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3 hours ago, ccc said:

Who is the interviewer ?! Brilliant. 

When Pinworld comes, I shall need a cheif lawyer.;)

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