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Digsby

Nationwide HPI - November 2016 - +0.1%/+4.4%

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"surveyors report that new buyer enquiries have increased modestly"

Now surveyors has gone from "strong" enquires to "modest". How long will it take for them to say "buyers" market.

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I think the report is full of significantly biased analysis of the data. Can't believe it does not mention the avg price fell nearly £1000. Is the data from the sold price until the end of September?

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Was going to start a thread on this, but just can't get excited by figures of 0.1%. Looks like price rises have flatlined, but no signs of significant falls yet or a London implosion rippling out.

My concern is that we now enter a period of price stagnation. There's little rocket fuel in the way of new props but the BTL tax changes wont start to bite for another 18 months. Prices stagnated 2011-13 and we may be in for a repeat of that.

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40 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Was going to start a thread on this, but just can't get excited by figures of 0.1%. Looks like price rises have flatlined, but no signs of significant falls yet or a London implosion rippling out.

My concern is that we now enter a period of price stagnation. There's little rocket fuel in the way of new props but the BTL tax changes wont start to bite for another 18 months. Prices stagnated 2011-13 and we may be in for a repeat of that.

I don't think prices will crash without LLs forced to sell. The developers are getting the govt. to buy new builds which don't sell and everyone else would rather rent them out.

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It's no surprise that the collapse has stopped....for a moment...the Boe printed £100B to lend to peolpe and used it to force down mortgage rates.


If prices dont rise another 5% i'l be surprised.

 

The collapse needed will then be 75% in London

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52 minutes ago, GreenDevil said:

PEOple waiting for the brexit crash have given up and are now buying before the spring bounce.

It's a good point, but next year the spring bounce will be overshadowed by actual Brexit.....or at least the threat of it ;)

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1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

It's no surprise that the collapse has stopped....for a moment...the Boe printed £100B to lend to peolpe and used it to force down mortgage rates.


If prices dont rise another 5% i'l be surprised.

 

The collapse needed will then be 75% in London

and i believe that they will just keep on printing and printing until the pound is worthless and we have to start using euros

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8 hours ago, hi5lo5 said:

They're tripping with those forecasts. If annual HPI hits 0% it's going much further as BTLers see their opportunity to exit with a profit evaporate before the full effect of S24 take hold.

I'm calling it, for the first time. This is the start of the big one. Prices have topped.

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7 hours ago, btd1981 said:

It's a good point, but next year the spring bounce will be overshadowed by actual Brexit.....or at least the threat of it ;)

Actual brexit, if we ever get it, won't cause a house price crash. Just like all the other doom predictions of project fear, they didn't happen. The next thing to recover will be the £ as the market wakes up to the failing EU and its euro. A house price crash in the UK will happen but I can't tell you when and I'm getting too old and  fed up waiting for it. Already waited 14 years....

Edited by bear.getting.old

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I put in a cheeky offer, the property has been on the market two years and the vendor is still hoping to get a fantasy price, i doubt ea will even tell the vendor, I give up... The whole housing market is a zirp induced fantasy.

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18 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

Actual brexit, if we ever get it, won't cause a house price crash. Just like all the other doom predictions of project fear, they didn't happen. The next thing to recover will be the £ as the market wakes up to the failing EU and its euro. A house price crash in the UK will happen but I can't tell you when and I'm getting too old and  fed up waiting for it. Already waited 14 years....

Brexit won't be the cause, I agree. The cause has already happened, years and years ago. The boom caused the crash. But Brexit, that plants the seed of doubt.

Much has been written about the so-called "uncertainty" of Brexit. Replace that word with "faith" and it starts to make sense. The crash will come when faith that it won't come goes. 

Hang on in there. It's happening now. Huge amounts of instability in the system now. Logic always wins.

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22 minutes ago, GreenDevil said:

I put in a cheeky offer, the property has been on the market two years and the vendor is still hoping to get a fantasy price, i doubt ea will even tell the vendor, I give up... The whole housing market is a zirp induced fantasy.

Anyone who has been on the market for 2 years does not want to sell. Fishers, fishing for an idiot. 

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42 minutes ago, satch said:

Had an on-line questionaire from YouGov, part of it covered property prices and possible falls, asked why you would not buy; brexit, price falls, interest rate rises, job security etc etc ... nothing about property being TOO EXPENSIVE. The whole MSM is geared toward ever increasing prices and sheer panic if it looks like prices may fall.

Look at the comments in MSM articles though. 7/10 want an HPC now. The discord between the HPI loving journos and their readers couldn't be more stark. An HPC that doesn't take the banking system with it would be huge win for the government. Once the MSM knows that's what is on the cards it'll get behind it. Denial right now.

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22 hours ago, rantnrave said:

Was going to start a thread on this, but just can't get excited by figures of 0.1%. Looks like price rises have flatlined, but no signs of significant falls yet or a London implosion rippling out.

My concern is that we now enter a period of price stagnation. There's little rocket fuel in the way of new props but the BTL tax changes wont start to bite for another 18 months. Prices stagnated 2011-13 and we may be in for a repeat of that.

Well come the end of March 17, that may change and I know what they will be blame.

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